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The 21 players who can win the Masters

Published

6 years ago

Nov 9, 2020

Each year for the Masters, I create a filtering process to help determine the players who are most likely to win the green jacket based on criteria that has strongly predicted outcomes at Augusta. I usually get the list down to roughly 23 players.

Last year, Tiger Woods was one of my 22 players that could win the Masters. Tiger was at 14/1 odds, but two of the top contenders, Brooks Koepka (25/1) and Francesco Molinari (22/1) were also on my list of players who could win the Masters.

Before I discuss my picks for this year’s Masters, I want to go over what I call the “critical holes” for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes on the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in scores exist. One of the interesting aspects about critical holes is that they often change over time due to changes in the course conditions, course design or a change in player strategy, which can create a smaller deviation in scores.

This year, the projected critical holes are No. 8, 13, 14, and 15.

The 15th hole, Fire Thorn, should be considered the most pivotal hole on the course as over the last five Masters the top finishers in the event have gained 0.546 strokes per round on the hole. The next closest hole in terms of the top finishers gaining strokes is the 14th hole, Chinese Fir, where the top finishers have only gained 0.274 strokes per round.

Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won once by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

Abraham Ancer
John Augenstein (a)
Christiann Bezuidenhout
Cameron Champ
Tyler Duncan
Abel Gallegos (a)
Lanto Griffin
Max Homa
Sungjae Im
Jazz Janewattananond
Sung Kang
Jason Kokrak
Nate Lashley
Yuxin Lin (a)
Lukas Michel (a)
Collin Morikawa
Sebastian Munoz
Andy Ogletree (a)
Carlos Ortiz
CT Pan
Victor Perez
JT Poston
Andrew Putnam
Scottie Scheffler
James Sugrue (a)
Nick Taylor
Erik van Rooyen
Matthew Wolff

Out of the professional first-time invitees the data ranks Jason Kokrak as the best fit, Matthew Wolff the second-best fit, and Cameron Champ the third-best fit. Champ is one of the more fascinating players for the Masters because he has arguably the fastest ball speed on Tour, but he has the lowest launch angle on Tour (6.2 degrees) and produces roughly the Tour average in terms of apex height. Augusta is generally a high ball hitting golf course as low-ball hitters that were superior players and ballstrikers have notoriously struggled at Augusta. It will be interesting if he can carry the trees on some tee shots with his super-low launch angle.

I also filtered out eight past champions I do not believe can contend at Augusta National anymore

Fred Couples
Trevor Immelman
Bernhard Langer
Sandy Lyle
Larry Mize
Jose Maria Olazabal
Vijay Singh
Mike Weir

The Zach Johnson debate

Every year I do my Masters picks, it’s always pointed out that I do not pick former Masters Champion Zach Johnson due to his lack of length off the tee. Augusta National greatly favors long-ball hitters. They can play the par 5s more like par 4s, and typically the longer hitters can also hit the ball higher so they can get their long approach shots to hold the green more easily.

When Johnson won the Masters in 2007, the event featured record-low temperatures in the mid-40s and wind gusts of 33 mph. This made it very hard for any player to reach the par 5s in two shots and allowed Johnson to get into a wedge contest on the par 5s, his strength.

This year, the forecast calls for temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s. There is some rain in the forecast. Rain and wind can be tricky in projecting possible winners of an event as it is dependent upon the course design and how exactly the rain and wind is impacting the field. In the past at Augusta, rain has provided a small advantage to shorter hitters. This is believed to be due to helping the shorter hitters hold the green on long approach shots.

The forecast calls for light winds. Over the past 20 years, the winds have given some shorter hitters the advantage because there is a tendency for shorter hitters to be better with their wedges and short games around the green. Wind makes it more difficult for players to reach the par 5s in two shots and causes more missed greens in regulation and thus the advantage shifts to better wedge players. But unless the forecast or wind changes, there is no sense in not filtering out players that are too short to win at Augusta National.

Rafa Cabrera Bello
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Justin Harding
Shugo Imahira
Zach Johnson
Kevin Kisner
Matt Kuchar
Andrew Landry
Graeme McDowell
Kevin Na
Ian Poulter
Chez Reavie
Webb Simpson
Brandt Snedeker
Brendon Todd

A part of the game that is just as critical as distance is the trajectory height a player can create. Last year, I filtered out seven players for hitting the ball too low. Out of those seven players, the best finish was Si Woo Kim at T-21. I use a combination of max height, carry distance, and launch angle to determine if the following players hit the ball too low to win at Augusta.

Lucas Glover
Charles Howell III
Si Woo Kim
Patrick Reed

Since the inauguration of the event, there have only been two winners of the Masters that have previously never made the cut: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 and Gene Sarazen in 1936. Let’s filter them out as well.

Dylan Frittelli
Matt Wallace

I will also filter out the players who missed the cut at Houston. Historically, players that miss the cut the week prior have a substantially lower likelihood of winning the following week compared to the players that made the cut in the previous week or did not play at all.

Sergio Garcia
Phil Mickelson
Charl Schwartzel
Jordan Spieth
Henrik Stenson
Jimmy Walker
Lee Westwood

Lastly, I have filtered out the weak performers from the “Red Zone,” approach shots from 175-225 yards. While Augusta is known for its greens, the winners are determined mostly by the quality of their approach shots throughout the event. In fact, 10 of the last 11 champions have hit at least 49 Greens in Regulation during the week.

Jason Day
Tommy Fleetwood
Adam Hadwin
Billy Horschel
Xander Schauffele
Cameron Smith
Bernd Wiesberger
Danny Willett
Tiger Woods

Tiger Woods will go down as the surprise filtered-out player, but he has not hit the ball well from the Red Zone in recent performances and his ball speed has dropped to roughly 172 mph. With a slow down in speed, it’s not uncommon for iron play performance to follow.

That leaves the following 21 players who can win the Masters

Byeong Hun An (400/1)
Patrick Cantlay (25/1)
Paul Casey (80/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (8/1)
Tony Finau (28/1)
Rickie Fowler (50/1)
Tyrrell Hatton (28/1)
Dustin Johnson (9/1)
Brooks Koepka (16/1)
Marc Leishman (150/1)
Shane Lowry (80/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (28/1)
Rory McIlroy (12/1)
Louis Oosthuizen (66/1)
Jon Rahm (10/1)
Justin Rose (66/1)
Adam Scott (66/1)
Justin Thomas (11/1)
Bubba Watson (28/1)
Gary Woodland (125/1)
Corey Conners (200/1)

Here are my personal top-10 picks

Bryson DeChambeau (8/1)
Dustin Johnson (9/1)
Jon Rahm (10/1)
Rory McIlroy (12/1)
Brook Koepka (16/1)
Tony Finau (28/1)
Tyrrell Hatton (28/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (28/1)
Justin Rose (66/1)
Adam Scott (66/1)

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Rich Hunt

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

23 Comments

Pingback: 5 things we learned Friday at the Masters – GolfWRX
JoeB

Nov 11, 2020 at 3:02 pm

What about Francesco Molinari?

Reply Report comment
ScottM

Nov 11, 2020 at 9:21 am

“The Masters has only been won once by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.”

Wrong, wrong, wrong – why do people keep repeating this?

Horton Smith was a first-time attendee when he won the inaugural tournament in 1934. As was Gene Sarazen a year later.

Look at the 1934 results on the official Masters website:

“Smith remains one of three players to win in his first start at Augusta National Golf Club.”

Reply Report comment
Pingback: Lee Elder: Honored, honorary starter at ANGC this year | Garcia out with COVID-19 | Why can win the Masters (and why Tiger can’t) – GolfWRX
Travis

Nov 10, 2020 at 4:41 am

Your comment about those who miss the cut the week before is also false. Jordan Speith was cut the year before his win.

Reply Report comment
- Ty Web
  
  Nov 10, 2020 at 1:45 pm
  
  You need to reread that. He did not say it was an absolute.
  
  Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  Nov 11, 2020 at 7:50 am
  
  That’s incorrect. He finished 3rd at Houston the week before the Masters when he won.
  
  https://www.espn.com/golf/leaderboard/_/tournamentId/2244
  
  Reply Report comment
freeze

Nov 9, 2020 at 9:16 pm

players hit the ball too low to win at Augusta. Puts Patrick Reed in that category who won at Augusta 2 years ago, complete fail

Reply Report comment
- Dan
  
  Nov 10, 2020 at 12:13 am
  
  Other multi time winners s thy hit it “too” low:
  Palmer
  Player
  Floyd
  Jimmy Demaret
  Jose Olazabal
  Faldo
  Crenshaw
  
  I mean, I understand the point he’s trying to make in the article but statistics are only a stepping off point.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - mike
    
    Nov 10, 2020 at 9:25 am
    
    Isn’t Augusta a completely different course by now since all those on your list won? Plays a lot different with the extra length I would imagine, and that is probably where you need the height. Its longer and firmer now.
    
    Reply Report comment
    - Ty Web
      
      Nov 10, 2020 at 4:45 pm
      
      Mike makes a good point Dan. There is not a single player you listed that can win.
      
      Reply Report comment
- Chris
  
  Nov 11, 2020 at 10:44 pm
  
  Thank You!! I was going to make the same comment!!
  
  Reply Report comment
Dan

Nov 9, 2020 at 7:59 pm

I’ll take the rest of the field against your top 10…

Reply Report comment
J

Nov 9, 2020 at 4:29 pm

Rahmbo.

Reply Report comment
Garrett

Nov 9, 2020 at 3:02 pm

I know this is pretty much a good article, but you eliminated recent champions with your logic!! I mean, Patrick Reed and Tiger literally JUST won the event. You should give them (and others) their own category – the “these guys are so good they defy logic” category.

Reply Report comment
- Rich
  
  Nov 9, 2020 at 10:25 pm
  
  He did not eliminate Tiger and Reed for having won The Masters before. Go back and reread. They fell into other categories. The former winners he eliminated are older guys.
  
  Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  Nov 11, 2020 at 8:02 am
  
  Just because they won doesn’t mean that they will win, again. Tiger’s play at last year’s Masters is far different than it has been since the return from the Tour suspending play. He’s lost about 7-8 mph of ball speed and his iron play has been very bad.
  
  Reed is hitting the ball very low right now and his iron play has not been all that hot. Recency trumps credentials.
  
  Reply Report comment
William

Nov 9, 2020 at 2:58 pm

I really like Louie Oo. and root for him to do well. But, is he not both short and low? How does he make the list? Good from “red zone”?

Reply Report comment
Blade Junkie

Nov 9, 2020 at 1:49 pm

where’s Molinari ?

Reply Report comment
Miamistomp

Nov 9, 2020 at 1:47 pm

fInau -no way
Morikawa and Redd I think have a chance

Reply Report comment
Pingback: Masters 2020 staff picks – GolfWRX
Bubbert

Nov 9, 2020 at 1:02 pm

As much as I like Finau (and I do) he could find ways to lose even if he was the single contestant teeing up…

Reply Report comment
ChristianR

Nov 9, 2020 at 12:30 pm

Garcia out for Covid.
Rose been very near to win two times, I agree but lately not so much game from him aside couple of good rounds in his latest event.
Really curious on Bryson approach.

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Tour Photo Galleries

Photos from the 2026 Memorial Tournament

Published

2 days ago

Jun 1, 2026

GolfWRX Staff

GolfWRX is on site this week at the Memorial Tournament, with both Alistair Cameron and Tour Photographer Greg Moore on the ground in Dublin, Ohio, where a strong field is assembled to pay homage to the Golden Bear.

In addition to WITB galleries, we’ve already been treated to an in-hand look at Tommy Fleetwood’s new TaylorMade Spider putters.

Check out links to all our photos below.

General Albums

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News

Tour Tech Rundown: Heroic Henley

Published

2 days ago

Jun 1, 2026

Ronald Montesano

Around the world, the golf wheel spun this final week in May of 2026. From New Jersey to Austria, with stops in Korea, Texas, and North Carolina (don’t let me route your next trip) the world’s finest put their golf games on display. There were three playoffs, some known commodities and some new talent. It was the sort of week that we hope to have at this point in the seasons. June and July afford double-digit major events, and perhaps, one of this week’s champions will use this success as a springboard to new heights. Time to run it all down, tech style, in this week’s Tour Tech Rundown.

Thanks to WITBHub, Today’s Golfer, GolfWRX, and Inside Tour Golf for initial research into equipment.

PGA Tour @ Charles Schwab Challenge: Heroic Henley denies Cole

Eric Cole did nearly everything that a fellow can do, to secure a first PGA Tour title. He stayed one shot clear of Ryder Cup player Ben Griffin. He kept US Open champion Gary Woodland and wunderkind Michael Brennan two shots distant. He posted 70 on day four to reach twelve under par. And then, Russell Henley revealed his Dr. Strange cloak. Henley made 47 feet of birdie putts on holes 16, 17, and 18, to jump from minus-nine to twelve-deep, and secured a spot in a playoff with Cole. The duo returned to the final tee, and put on a stripe show.

Both golfers found the fairway off the tee, and Henley improved on his regulation play with an approach to four feet. Cole did himself proud, tucking an iron to a dozen feet, but he was unable to convert the putt for three. Henley is one of the best putters on tour, and he proved it once more by draining a putt for a fourth consecutive birdie, and a sixth PGA Tour title. For Eric Cole, that first victory should come, and soon. He has done everything necessary to earn the chalice lift.

Henley’s Suitcase

Driver: Titleist TSi3 at 10 degrees. Shaft: Project X HZRDUS Smoke Black 70g 6.5 TX
Metal: Titleist TS3 at 16.5 degrees. Shaft: Project X HZRDUS Smoke Black 80 TX
Hybrid: Titleist TSi2 at 21 degrees. Shaft: Mitsubishi MMT hybrid 100 TX
Iron: Titleist T250 4-iron. Shaft: True Temper Dynamic Golf AMT Tour White X100
Irons: Titleist T100 5-6 irons. Shaft: True Temper Dynamic Golf AMT Tour White X100
Irons: Titleist T100 7-9 irons. Shaft: True Temper Dynamic Gold Tour Issue X100
Wedges: Titleist Vokey Design SM11 at 48 and 50 degrees. Shaft: True Temper Dynamic Golf Tour Issue X100
Wedges: Titleist Vokey Design SM11 at 54 and 60 degrees. Shaft: rue Temper Dynamic Golf Tour Issue S400
Putter: Titleist Scotty Cameron T5 Tour Prototype

LPGA @ Shoprite LPGA: Welcome back, Celine!

Soo Bin Joo had her eyes on a maiden LPGA title. She held the lead after two rounds, then hit a red light at the intersection of can-I and how-To. Joo posted plus-two on day three in New Jersey, and dropped to a T4 finish, which was still a career-best for the young Korean golfer. Instead of a new face, a familiar face returned to the top of the podium.

Celine Boutier was the It Girl in 2023. She collected four victories, including a major title at Evian. Boutier reached world number one status, then simply faded into the background. No wins came her way over the next 30 months. On Sunday, she collected LPGA victory number seven, at the same trace as LPGA victory number two.

Day three saw Boutier manage the windswept Seaview Bay course with six birdies and a bogey. She was challenged in the end by Thailand’s Arpichaya Yubol, who signed for a 66 of her own. Yubol came up one shot shy of the top ladder rung. Finishing in third place at -7, two back of the winner, was Ireland’s Lauren Walsh.

Celine’s Suitcase

Driver: PXG 0311 Black Ops Tour-1 at 9 degrees. Shaft: Graphite Design AD IZ-5
Hybrid: PXG 0311 Black Ops at 19 and 22 degrees. Shaft: KBS Hybrid Prototype
Hybrid: PXG 0311 Gen5.
Iron: PXG 0311 P Gen 4 5-9 irons
Wedge: PXG 0311 T Gen 4 PW
Wedges: PXG 0311 Sugar Daddy II at 50, 54, 58 degrees
Putter: Bettinardi Studio Stock 3 DASS

DP World Tour @ Austrian Alpine: KK? KK!

Kota Kaneko has a rhythmic name. It has strong vowels and a run of voiceless stops in its crunchy K sounds. On Sunday in Austria, Kaneko put a stop to a challenge from Portugal’s Ricardo Gouveia and everyone else, and claimed a first-ever title on the DP World Tour. Gouveia did well to reach 16-under par over four days, but Kaneko held firm, two shots in the clear.

Davis Bryant of the USA also forged a strong challenge for the win. He ended in a tie with Gouveia for second place. Kaneko began and finished his final round in a bit of a malaise, but he caught fire midway through. Birdies at 10, 12, and 13 provided the necessary cushion to cruise to the finish line without breaking a serious sweat.

Kaneko’s Suitcase

Driver: Ping Max G440
Metals: TaylorMade Qi4D at 15, 16.5, 21, and 24 degrees
Irons: TaylorMade P760 5 and 6 irons
Irons: TaylorMade P7TW 7-9 irons
Wedges: Titleist Vokey Design at 46, 52, 56, and 60 degrees
Putter: Odyssey Ai-One Cruiser Arm Lock #7

Korn Ferry Tour @ UNC Health Championship: Improbably Alvaro

Alvaro Ortiz may have had a bit of scare on the outward nine on Sunday, but he came through in clutch fashion in the end. Ortiz began the day bogey-double, and added another double bogey at the 11th hole. He was mired in a downward trend, spiraling away from the top of the leader’s board. Ortiz found hope at the 14th, where his first birdie of the day tumbled home. Inspired, he closed with birdies and 17 and 18 to catch Ross Steelman at 10-under par, and the duo returned to the 18th deck for overtime.

The extra session concluded in brief time. Ortiz, buoyed by his newly-retrieved confidence, hit the fairway with driver, then approached to six feet and drained the putt. Gobsmacked, Steelman could do little more than smile and applaud, as his run at the top came to a close. The victory was the first for Ortiz on the KFT, and will implant him squarely in the chase for a PGA Tour promotion.

Alvaro’s Suitcase

Driver: Ping G430 MAX driver at 9 degrees loft
Metal: Ping G430 MAX 3W
Iron: Ping iDi Driving Iron
Irons: Ping Blueprint S irons
Wedges
Putter: Scottsdale TR Piper C

A party on the green!

Alvaro’s time comes in Raleigh with his first win @UNCHealthChamp ? pic.twitter.com/2dmtZdbSzk

— Korn Ferry Tour (@KornFerryTour) May 31, 2026

LIV @ Korea: Me llamo Joaquin

Chile’s Joaquin Niemann had been away from the LIV winner’s circle throughout all of 2026. This week in Korea, he reminded us that he is still a force to consider. Niemann chased down Taylor Gooch over the closing holes at Asiad Country Club, then claimed victory with a hole-one birdie in extra time. Bryson DeChambeau claimed solo third, one shot in arrears at minus-eleven. Dustin Johnson finished on fourth, one putt farther back.

Niemann’s Suitcase