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The 21 players who can win the Masters
Each year for the Masters, I create a filtering process to help determine the players who are most likely to win the green jacket based on criteria that has strongly predicted outcomes at Augusta. I usually get the list down to roughly 23 players.
Last year, Tiger Woods was one of my 22 players that could win the Masters. Tiger was at 14/1 odds, but two of the top contenders, Brooks Koepka (25/1) and Francesco Molinari (22/1) were also on my list of players who could win the Masters.
Before I discuss my picks for this year’s Masters, I want to go over what I call the “critical holes” for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes on the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in scores exist. One of the interesting aspects about critical holes is that they often change over time due to changes in the course conditions, course design or a change in player strategy, which can create a smaller deviation in scores.
This year, the projected critical holes are No. 8, 13, 14, and 15.
The 15th hole, Fire Thorn, should be considered the most pivotal hole on the course as over the last five Masters the top finishers in the event have gained 0.546 strokes per round on the hole. The next closest hole in terms of the top finishers gaining strokes is the 14th hole, Chinese Fir, where the top finishers have only gained 0.274 strokes per round.
Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won once by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.
Abraham Ancer
John Augenstein (a)
Christiann Bezuidenhout
Cameron Champ
Tyler Duncan
Abel Gallegos (a)
Lanto Griffin
Max Homa
Sungjae Im
Jazz Janewattananond
Sung Kang
Jason Kokrak
Nate Lashley
Yuxin Lin (a)
Lukas Michel (a)
Collin Morikawa
Sebastian Munoz
Andy Ogletree (a)
Carlos Ortiz
CT Pan
Victor Perez
JT Poston
Andrew Putnam
Scottie Scheffler
James Sugrue (a)
Nick Taylor
Erik van Rooyen
Matthew Wolff
Out of the professional first-time invitees the data ranks Jason Kokrak as the best fit, Matthew Wolff the second-best fit, and Cameron Champ the third-best fit. Champ is one of the more fascinating players for the Masters because he has arguably the fastest ball speed on Tour, but he has the lowest launch angle on Tour (6.2 degrees) and produces roughly the Tour average in terms of apex height. Augusta is generally a high ball hitting golf course as low-ball hitters that were superior players and ballstrikers have notoriously struggled at Augusta. It will be interesting if he can carry the trees on some tee shots with his super-low launch angle.
I also filtered out eight past champions I do not believe can contend at Augusta National anymore
Fred Couples
Trevor Immelman
Bernhard Langer
Sandy Lyle
Larry Mize
Jose Maria Olazabal
Vijay Singh
Mike Weir
The Zach Johnson debate
Every year I do my Masters picks, it’s always pointed out that I do not pick former Masters Champion Zach Johnson due to his lack of length off the tee. Augusta National greatly favors long-ball hitters. They can play the par 5s more like par 4s, and typically the longer hitters can also hit the ball higher so they can get their long approach shots to hold the green more easily.
When Johnson won the Masters in 2007, the event featured record-low temperatures in the mid-40s and wind gusts of 33 mph. This made it very hard for any player to reach the par 5s in two shots and allowed Johnson to get into a wedge contest on the par 5s, his strength.
This year, the forecast calls for temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s. There is some rain in the forecast. Rain and wind can be tricky in projecting possible winners of an event as it is dependent upon the course design and how exactly the rain and wind is impacting the field. In the past at Augusta, rain has provided a small advantage to shorter hitters. This is believed to be due to helping the shorter hitters hold the green on long approach shots.
The forecast calls for light winds. Over the past 20 years, the winds have given some shorter hitters the advantage because there is a tendency for shorter hitters to be better with their wedges and short games around the green. Wind makes it more difficult for players to reach the par 5s in two shots and causes more missed greens in regulation and thus the advantage shifts to better wedge players. But unless the forecast or wind changes, there is no sense in not filtering out players that are too short to win at Augusta National.
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Justin Harding
Shugo Imahira
Zach Johnson
Kevin Kisner
Matt Kuchar
Andrew Landry
Graeme McDowell
Kevin Na
Ian Poulter
Chez Reavie
Webb Simpson
Brandt Snedeker
Brendon Todd
A part of the game that is just as critical as distance is the trajectory height a player can create. Last year, I filtered out seven players for hitting the ball too low. Out of those seven players, the best finish was Si Woo Kim at T-21. I use a combination of max height, carry distance, and launch angle to determine if the following players hit the ball too low to win at Augusta.
Lucas Glover
Charles Howell III
Si Woo Kim
Patrick Reed
Since the inauguration of the event, there have only been two winners of the Masters that have previously never made the cut: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 and Gene Sarazen in 1936. Let’s filter them out as well.
Dylan Frittelli
Matt Wallace
I will also filter out the players who missed the cut at Houston. Historically, players that miss the cut the week prior have a substantially lower likelihood of winning the following week compared to the players that made the cut in the previous week or did not play at all.
Sergio Garcia
Phil Mickelson
Charl Schwartzel
Jordan Spieth
Henrik Stenson
Jimmy Walker
Lee Westwood
Lastly, I have filtered out the weak performers from the “Red Zone,” approach shots from 175-225 yards. While Augusta is known for its greens, the winners are determined mostly by the quality of their approach shots throughout the event. In fact, 10 of the last 11 champions have hit at least 49 Greens in Regulation during the week.
Jason Day
Tommy Fleetwood
Adam Hadwin
Billy Horschel
Xander Schauffele
Cameron Smith
Bernd Wiesberger
Danny Willett
Tiger Woods
Tiger Woods will go down as the surprise filtered-out player, but he has not hit the ball well from the Red Zone in recent performances and his ball speed has dropped to roughly 172 mph. With a slow down in speed, it’s not uncommon for iron play performance to follow.
That leaves the following 21 players who can win the Masters
Byeong Hun An (400/1)
Patrick Cantlay (25/1)
Paul Casey (80/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (8/1)
Tony Finau (28/1)
Rickie Fowler (50/1)
Tyrrell Hatton (28/1)
Dustin Johnson (9/1)
Brooks Koepka (16/1)
Marc Leishman (150/1)
Shane Lowry (80/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (28/1)
Rory McIlroy (12/1)
Louis Oosthuizen (66/1)
Jon Rahm (10/1)
Justin Rose (66/1)
Adam Scott (66/1)
Justin Thomas (11/1)
Bubba Watson (28/1)
Gary Woodland (125/1)
Corey Conners (200/1)
Here are my personal top-10 picks
Bryson DeChambeau (8/1)
Dustin Johnson (9/1)
Jon Rahm (10/1)
Rory McIlroy (12/1)
Brook Koepka (16/1)
Tony Finau (28/1)
Tyrrell Hatton (28/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (28/1)
Justin Rose (66/1)
Adam Scott (66/1)
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Tour Rundown: Matching luggage for Scheffler
For those of us from another generation, the disruption of the golf world that we knew well is both exciting and unsettling. The two most potent disruptors are rival golf leagues, not unlike the turmoil seen in the NCAA, and the Anchorman-style gangs of golf reporters. Reconciled to a past era are the dominance of the U.S. PGA Tour and the monthly golf magazines. One element that will not change, at any time in the foreseeable future, however, is the sanctity of the grand slam and golf’s four male major championships. While the LPGA and the PGA Tour Champions have seen a light and added fifth and sixth power titles, the men’s game remains staunchly in the 20th century.
This last topic surges in pertinence each March, just before the playing of The Players Championship. Two camps stake tents and run banners up the poll. One cries out for elevation of the PC to major status, while the other digs a trench around its impregnable quadrilateral. My personal take is this: Every four years since 2016, golf is played at the Olympics. Is Olympic Gold the equivalent of a major title? Yes, it is. It comes around every 1,500 days and brings elite golfers together in competition at the most important athletic event and venue. In my mind, Justin Rose and Xander Schauffele earned major titles in Brazil and Japan, as did Inbee Park and Nelly Korda. As for the Players Championship, why not? The field is stronger by ranking than any major event, and the golf course demands every shot that golfers can create.
The Players Championship is so important to the U.S. PGA Tour that all other tours under its umbrella take the week off. No Korn Ferry, no Tour Champions. The LPGA and the DP World Tour follow suit, which shrinks the amount of watchable golf to two events. On that sour note, let’s run down this week’s play, beginning with the Players Championship and ending with the Asian Tour in Macau.
PGA Tour @ Players Championship: matching luggage for Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler is making a bid to be the player of his generation. From the previous one, a fair number have taken leave from traditional competition. The Johnsons, Koepkas, and Reeds from the 1980s no longer play the events that stand the test of time. The born-in-the-90s generation had its first great champion in Jordan Spieth until he took leave of the senses that brought him to golf’s pinnacle. Spieth’s descent ran opposite Scheffler’s rise.
Scottie Scheffler had won nothing on the PGA Tour until February 13th of 2022. He won on that day in Phoenix, then won three more times by the middle of April. One of those wins was the API at Bay Hill. Last week, Scheffler won for a second time at the Orlando course. Last March, Scheffler won his first Players Championship, by five shots over Tyrrell Hatton. On Sunday, Scheffler dived headfirst into a cauldron of fierce competition. Facing challenges from Olympic champion Schauffele, Open champion Brian Harmon, and U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark, Scheffler breathed. As the only man to reach 20 under par, he earned a second consecutive title at Sawgrass and reminded us that it has been two years since he won the Masters and that he is on a tear.
It all began at the fourth on Sunday for Scheffler. After pars at the opening three holes, Scheffler’s driving wedge from 92 yards landed 20 feet shy of the hole, took one large bounce, then spun left, trickling into the hole for eagle. He followed that incantation with another birdie, then two pars. The stretch from 8 to 12 was where the champion made a statement. His quartet of birdies over that run, brought him to 19-under par and let the pursuing pack know that even lower than the winning 17 under in 2023 would be necessary.
And the trio was game. Harman and Clark both dipped below 70, to reach 19 under at the final pole. Schauffele could not find a similar gear and closed with 70 — 69 would have earned him a playoff with Scheffler. It was the extra gear, the ability to go low when all things mattered, that eleveated the now two-time champion to the top of the podium. In five of his eight tour wins, Scheffler has posted a sub-70 round on day four, and four of those have been 67 or lower.
With elegant precision, Scheffler applied the final thrust at the par-5 16th. He played safely away from Pete’s Pond on the right, into the left greenside bunker at the back of the putting surface. His bunker shot was thing of exquisite accuracy, trickling to a planned stop about 20 inches from the hole. The birdie concluded matters and rang the sort of bell that Dye courses tend to display.
The greenside bunker is not a problem for the defending champ.
Scottie Scheffler’s birdie at 16 moves him back into a share of the lead @THEPLAYERS. pic.twitter.com/aEi7onLZPE
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 17, 2024
Asian Tour @ International Series Macau: Catlin earns playoff victory
There are two sorts of golfers that compete on the Asian Tour, which makes no secret of its alliance with the LIV. The first are the AT stalwarts, the ones who play as golfers have always played, with little guarantee and much pride. The others are the ones who compete on the LIV, eschewing both risk and pride for the guaranteed payday. Their deal costs them world ranking points, so they play in AT events, hoping to qualify for golf’s major events.
This week in Macau, one of those LIV golfers shot 60 on Sunday and did not win the tournament. Hard to believe, you say? Aye, but when another golfer shoots 59 in the third round, follows it up with a 65 on day four, then makes overtime birdie twice at the par-five closer, the razor’s edge of great golf is sharpened. Thus did it happen with American John Catlin and Spaniard David Puig.
It was Catlin who signed for 59, and it took a twisting, eagle putt at the last to enshrine the first-ever, sub-60 on the Asian Tour. It was Puig who closed the gap on Sunday with a 60 of his own, which featured a bogey at the lengthy fifth hole, but was followed by seven birdies and an eagle over the next 13 holes. Catlin had a six-feet putt for the regulation win, but missed. In extra time, Puig nearly holed for eagle at 18, then tapped in for birdie. Catlin’s second danced along the OOB perimeter, before ending on an access road. His drop and pitch left him another six feet to remain alive, and this time, he converted.
At the second go-round of the par-5 finisher, Puig found the green in two, but took three putts from nearly 50 feet. Catlin confronted another challenging pitch for his third, and once again, his wedge game won the day. He tapped in for birdie and the win.
5??9?? ? @JohnCatlin59 eagles the 18th to shoot the first 59 on the Asian Tour ?? #whereitsAT #ThisISEverything #InternationalSeries @intseriesgolf pic.twitter.com/RV9gYy1SIp
— Asian Tour (@asiantourgolf) March 16, 2024
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Pingback: 5 things we learned Friday at the Masters – GolfWRX
JoeB
Nov 11, 2020 at 3:02 pm
What about Francesco Molinari?
ScottM
Nov 11, 2020 at 9:21 am
“The Masters has only been won once by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.”
Wrong, wrong, wrong – why do people keep repeating this?
Horton Smith was a first-time attendee when he won the inaugural tournament in 1934. As was Gene Sarazen a year later.
Look at the 1934 results on the official Masters website:
“Smith remains one of three players to win in his first start at Augusta National Golf Club.”
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Travis
Nov 10, 2020 at 4:41 am
Your comment about those who miss the cut the week before is also false. Jordan Speith was cut the year before his win.
Ty Web
Nov 10, 2020 at 1:45 pm
You need to reread that. He did not say it was an absolute.
Richie Hunt
Nov 11, 2020 at 7:50 am
That’s incorrect. He finished 3rd at Houston the week before the Masters when he won.
https://www.espn.com/golf/leaderboard/_/tournamentId/2244
freeze
Nov 9, 2020 at 9:16 pm
players hit the ball too low to win at Augusta. Puts Patrick Reed in that category who won at Augusta 2 years ago, complete fail
Dan
Nov 10, 2020 at 12:13 am
Other multi time winners s thy hit it “too” low:
Palmer
Player
Floyd
Jimmy Demaret
Jose Olazabal
Faldo
Crenshaw
I mean, I understand the point he’s trying to make in the article but statistics are only a stepping off point.
mike
Nov 10, 2020 at 9:25 am
Isn’t Augusta a completely different course by now since all those on your list won? Plays a lot different with the extra length I would imagine, and that is probably where you need the height. Its longer and firmer now.
Ty Web
Nov 10, 2020 at 4:45 pm
Mike makes a good point Dan. There is not a single player you listed that can win.
Chris
Nov 11, 2020 at 10:44 pm
Thank You!! I was going to make the same comment!!
Dan
Nov 9, 2020 at 7:59 pm
I’ll take the rest of the field against your top 10…
J
Nov 9, 2020 at 4:29 pm
Rahmbo.
Garrett
Nov 9, 2020 at 3:02 pm
I know this is pretty much a good article, but you eliminated recent champions with your logic!! I mean, Patrick Reed and Tiger literally JUST won the event. You should give them (and others) their own category – the “these guys are so good they defy logic” category.
Rich
Nov 9, 2020 at 10:25 pm
He did not eliminate Tiger and Reed for having won The Masters before. Go back and reread. They fell into other categories. The former winners he eliminated are older guys.
Richie Hunt
Nov 11, 2020 at 8:02 am
Just because they won doesn’t mean that they will win, again. Tiger’s play at last year’s Masters is far different than it has been since the return from the Tour suspending play. He’s lost about 7-8 mph of ball speed and his iron play has been very bad.
Reed is hitting the ball very low right now and his iron play has not been all that hot. Recency trumps credentials.
William
Nov 9, 2020 at 2:58 pm
I really like Louie Oo. and root for him to do well. But, is he not both short and low? How does he make the list? Good from “red zone”?
Blade Junkie
Nov 9, 2020 at 1:49 pm
where’s Molinari ?
Miamistomp
Nov 9, 2020 at 1:47 pm
fInau -no way
Morikawa and Redd I think have a chance
Pingback: Masters 2020 staff picks – GolfWRX
Bubbert
Nov 9, 2020 at 1:02 pm
As much as I like Finau (and I do) he could find ways to lose even if he was the single contestant teeing up…
ChristianR
Nov 9, 2020 at 12:30 pm
Garcia out for Covid.
Rose been very near to win two times, I agree but lately not so much game from him aside couple of good rounds in his latest event.
Really curious on Bryson approach.