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The 21 players who can win the Masters

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Each year for the Masters, I create a filtering process to help determine the players who are most likely to win the green jacket based on criteria that has strongly predicted outcomes at Augusta. I usually get the list down to roughly 23 players.

Last year, Tiger Woods was one of my 22 players that could win the Masters. Tiger was at 14/1 odds, but two of the top contenders, Brooks Koepka (25/1) and Francesco Molinari (22/1) were also on my list of players who could win the Masters.

Before I discuss my picks for this year’s Masters, I want to go over what I call the “critical holes” for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes on the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in scores exist. One of the interesting aspects about critical holes is that they often change over time due to changes in the course conditions, course design or a change in player strategy, which can create a smaller deviation in scores.

This year, the projected critical holes are No. 8, 13, 14, and 15.

The 15th hole, Fire Thorn, should be considered the most pivotal hole on the course as over the last five Masters the top finishers in the event have gained 0.546 strokes per round on the hole. The next closest hole in terms of the top finishers gaining strokes is the 14th hole, Chinese Fir, where the top finishers have only gained 0.274 strokes per round.

Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won once by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

Abraham Ancer
John Augenstein (a)
Christiann Bezuidenhout
Cameron Champ
Tyler Duncan
Abel Gallegos (a)
Lanto Griffin
Max Homa
Sungjae Im
Jazz Janewattananond
Sung Kang
Jason Kokrak
Nate Lashley
Yuxin Lin (a)
Lukas Michel (a)
Collin Morikawa
Sebastian Munoz
Andy Ogletree (a)
Carlos Ortiz
CT Pan
Victor Perez
JT Poston
Andrew Putnam
Scottie Scheffler
James Sugrue (a)
Nick Taylor
Erik van Rooyen
Matthew Wolff

Out of the professional first-time invitees the data ranks Jason Kokrak as the best fit, Matthew Wolff the second-best fit, and Cameron Champ the third-best fit. Champ is one of the more fascinating players for the Masters because he has arguably the fastest ball speed on Tour, but he has the lowest launch angle on Tour (6.2 degrees) and produces roughly the Tour average in terms of apex height. Augusta is generally a high ball hitting golf course as low-ball hitters that were superior players and ballstrikers have notoriously struggled at Augusta. It will be interesting if he can carry the trees on some tee shots with his super-low launch angle.

I also filtered out eight past champions I do not believe can contend at Augusta National anymore

Fred Couples
Trevor Immelman
Bernhard Langer
Sandy Lyle
Larry Mize
Jose Maria Olazabal
Vijay Singh
Mike Weir

The Zach Johnson debate

Every year I do my Masters picks, it’s always pointed out that I do not pick former Masters Champion Zach Johnson due to his lack of length off the tee. Augusta National greatly favors long-ball hitters. They can play the par 5s more like par 4s, and typically the longer hitters can also hit the ball higher so they can get their long approach shots to hold the green more easily.

When Johnson won the Masters in 2007, the event featured record-low temperatures in the mid-40s and wind gusts of 33 mph. This made it very hard for any player to reach the par 5s in two shots and allowed Johnson to get into a wedge contest on the par 5s, his strength.

This year, the forecast calls for temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s. There is some rain in the forecast. Rain and wind can be tricky in projecting possible winners of an event as it is dependent upon the course design and how exactly the rain and wind is impacting the field. In the past at Augusta, rain has provided a small advantage to shorter hitters. This is believed to be due to helping the shorter hitters hold the green on long approach shots.

The forecast calls for light winds. Over the past 20 years, the winds have given some shorter hitters the advantage because there is a tendency for shorter hitters to be better with their wedges and short games around the green. Wind makes it more difficult for players to reach the par 5s in two shots and causes more missed greens in regulation and thus the advantage shifts to better wedge players. But unless the forecast or wind changes, there is no sense in not filtering out players that are too short to win at Augusta National.

Rafa Cabrera Bello
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Justin Harding
Shugo Imahira
Zach Johnson
Kevin Kisner
Matt Kuchar
Andrew Landry
Graeme McDowell
Kevin Na
Ian Poulter
Chez Reavie
Webb Simpson
Brandt Snedeker
Brendon Todd

A part of the game that is just as critical as distance is the trajectory height a player can create. Last year, I filtered out seven players for hitting the ball too low. Out of those seven players, the best finish was Si Woo Kim at T-21. I use a combination of max height, carry distance, and launch angle to determine if the following players hit the ball too low to win at Augusta.

Lucas Glover
Charles Howell III
Si Woo Kim
Patrick Reed

Since the inauguration of the event, there have only been two winners of the Masters that have previously never made the cut: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 and Gene Sarazen in 1936. Let’s filter them out as well.

Dylan Frittelli
Matt Wallace

I will also filter out the players who missed the cut at Houston. Historically, players that miss the cut the week prior have a substantially lower likelihood of winning the following week compared to the players that made the cut in the previous week or did not play at all.

Sergio Garcia
Phil Mickelson
Charl Schwartzel
Jordan Spieth
Henrik Stenson
Jimmy Walker
Lee Westwood

Lastly, I have filtered out the weak performers from the “Red Zone,” approach shots from 175-225 yards. While Augusta is known for its greens, the winners are determined mostly by the quality of their approach shots throughout the event. In fact, 10 of the last 11 champions have hit at least 49 Greens in Regulation during the week.

Jason Day
Tommy Fleetwood
Adam Hadwin
Billy Horschel
Xander Schauffele
Cameron Smith
Bernd Wiesberger
Danny Willett
Tiger Woods

Tiger Woods will go down as the surprise filtered-out player, but he has not hit the ball well from the Red Zone in recent performances and his ball speed has dropped to roughly 172 mph. With a slow down in speed, it’s not uncommon for iron play performance to follow.

That leaves the following 21 players who can win the Masters

Byeong Hun An (400/1)
Patrick Cantlay (25/1)
Paul Casey (80/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (8/1)
Tony Finau (28/1)
Rickie Fowler (50/1)
Tyrrell Hatton (28/1)
Dustin Johnson (9/1)
Brooks Koepka (16/1)
Marc Leishman (150/1)
Shane Lowry (80/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (28/1)
Rory McIlroy (12/1)
Louis Oosthuizen (66/1)
Jon Rahm (10/1)
Justin Rose (66/1)
Adam Scott (66/1)
Justin Thomas (11/1)
Bubba Watson (28/1)
Gary Woodland (125/1)
Corey Conners (200/1)

Here are my personal top-10 picks

Bryson DeChambeau (8/1)
Dustin Johnson (9/1)
Jon Rahm (10/1)
Rory McIlroy (12/1)
Brook Koepka (16/1)
Tony Finau (28/1)
Tyrrell Hatton (28/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (28/1)
Justin Rose (66/1)
Adam Scott (66/1)

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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. Pingback: 5 things we learned Friday at the Masters – GolfWRX

  2. JoeB

    Nov 11, 2020 at 3:02 pm

    What about Francesco Molinari?

  3. ScottM

    Nov 11, 2020 at 9:21 am

    “The Masters has only been won once by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.”

    Wrong, wrong, wrong – why do people keep repeating this?

    Horton Smith was a first-time attendee when he won the inaugural tournament in 1934. As was Gene Sarazen a year later.

    Look at the 1934 results on the official Masters website:

    “Smith remains one of three players to win in his first start at Augusta National Golf Club.”

  4. Pingback: Lee Elder: Honored, honorary starter at ANGC this year | Garcia out with COVID-19 | Why can win the Masters (and why Tiger can’t) – GolfWRX

  5. Travis

    Nov 10, 2020 at 4:41 am

    Your comment about those who miss the cut the week before is also false. Jordan Speith was cut the year before his win.

  6. freeze

    Nov 9, 2020 at 9:16 pm

    players hit the ball too low to win at Augusta. Puts Patrick Reed in that category who won at Augusta 2 years ago, complete fail

    • Dan

      Nov 10, 2020 at 12:13 am

      Other multi time winners s thy hit it “too” low:
      Palmer
      Player
      Floyd
      Jimmy Demaret
      Jose Olazabal
      Faldo
      Crenshaw

      I mean, I understand the point he’s trying to make in the article but statistics are only a stepping off point.

      • mike

        Nov 10, 2020 at 9:25 am

        Isn’t Augusta a completely different course by now since all those on your list won? Plays a lot different with the extra length I would imagine, and that is probably where you need the height. Its longer and firmer now.

        • Ty Web

          Nov 10, 2020 at 4:45 pm

          Mike makes a good point Dan. There is not a single player you listed that can win.

    • Chris

      Nov 11, 2020 at 10:44 pm

      Thank You!! I was going to make the same comment!!

  7. Dan

    Nov 9, 2020 at 7:59 pm

    I’ll take the rest of the field against your top 10…

  8. J

    Nov 9, 2020 at 4:29 pm

    Rahmbo.

  9. Garrett

    Nov 9, 2020 at 3:02 pm

    I know this is pretty much a good article, but you eliminated recent champions with your logic!! I mean, Patrick Reed and Tiger literally JUST won the event. You should give them (and others) their own category – the “these guys are so good they defy logic” category.

    • Rich

      Nov 9, 2020 at 10:25 pm

      He did not eliminate Tiger and Reed for having won The Masters before. Go back and reread. They fell into other categories. The former winners he eliminated are older guys.

    • Richie Hunt

      Nov 11, 2020 at 8:02 am

      Just because they won doesn’t mean that they will win, again. Tiger’s play at last year’s Masters is far different than it has been since the return from the Tour suspending play. He’s lost about 7-8 mph of ball speed and his iron play has been very bad.

      Reed is hitting the ball very low right now and his iron play has not been all that hot. Recency trumps credentials.

  10. William

    Nov 9, 2020 at 2:58 pm

    I really like Louie Oo. and root for him to do well. But, is he not both short and low? How does he make the list? Good from “red zone”?

  11. Blade Junkie

    Nov 9, 2020 at 1:49 pm

    where’s Molinari ?

  12. Miamistomp

    Nov 9, 2020 at 1:47 pm

    fInau -no way
    Morikawa and Redd I think have a chance

  13. Pingback: Masters 2020 staff picks – GolfWRX

  14. Bubbert

    Nov 9, 2020 at 1:02 pm

    As much as I like Finau (and I do) he could find ways to lose even if he was the single contestant teeing up…

  15. ChristianR

    Nov 9, 2020 at 12:30 pm

    Garcia out for Covid.
    Rose been very near to win two times, I agree but lately not so much game from him aside couple of good rounds in his latest event.
    Really curious on Bryson approach.

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News

Morning 9: Wyndham Clark on back injury | DiMarco’s bold Champions Tour take | Houston Open photos

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By Ben Alberstadt with Gianni Magliocco.

For comments: [email protected]

Good Thursday morning, golf fans, as day one of the Houston Open gets underway.

1. Wyndham Clark hurts back…still hopes to play

ESPN’s Mark Schlabach…”Reigning U.S. Open winner Wyndham Clark injured his back while working out at home Monday, but he hopes to play in this week’s Texas Children’s Houston Open, which starts Thursday at Memorial Park Golf Course.”

  • “Clark, the fourth-ranked golfer in the world, said he was lifting weights and “got caught in an awkward spot doing a lift and [his] back went.”
  • “It’s not something that happens regularly, but it happened and you live and you learn,” Clark said. “I’m trending in the right direction. I’m hitting it or feeling stronger and more mobile every day. I’m going to give it my best effort tomorrow and hopefully I can play and compete. If not, I’ve got to get ready for tournaments to come after this.”
Full piece.

2. DiMarco’s bold Champions Tour take

Our Matt Vincenzi…”While speaking on the Subpar podcast, former PGA Tour winner and current PGA Tour Champions player Chris DiMarco said he hopes LIV buys the Champions Tour.”

  • “We’re kind of hoping that LIV buys the Champions Tour,” he said.
  • “Let’s play for a little real money out here. I mean this is kind of a joke when we’re getting $2 million. There were like seven guys last week from TPC (Sawgrass, at the $25 million PLAYERS Championship) that made more money than our purses.”
Full piece.

3. Charley Hull’s course management problem?

Our Matt Vincenzi…”Charley Hull came just short of her third LPGA Tour victory over the weekend at the Fir Hills Seri Pak Championship when she played her last two holes at 3 over to slip all the way to 10th on the leaderboard.”

  • “After the round, Hull was blasted by Sky Sports commentator and former LPGA Tour player Trish Johnson for her lack of golf course management.”
  • “While speaking on the Sky Sports Golf podcast, Johnson spoke harshly of Hull.”
  • “I’m probably her harshest critic, because I know how good she is. She doesn’t win anywhere near enough for her talent, and she doesn’t get involved enough, in all honestly.
  • “The thing with Charley is that you’re never going to change her. I read something the other day that said how much she loves the game and it’s her love of the game [that costs her]. She’s never going to change and she’s just going to go for every pin.
  • “In theory that’s great, but it won’t win you golf tournaments, it just won’t because she’s not that much better than anybody else.
Full piece.

4. Sahith’s interesting idea

Golf Channel’s Brentley Romine…”Which brings Theegala to his big idea: “There’s got to be something, like a fan challenge or – I think it would be awesome to see a scratch handicap go out and play like the Monday after a tournament, keep the same conditions and see what they would shoot just to put it into perspective how hard a PGA Tour golf course is.”

  • “Theegala loves the thought so much that he’d even come out and watch.”
  • “Shoot, I’d commentate on it,” Theegala added before continuing, “I have a pet peeve, sometimes when I watch golf on TV, a great example is hole 8 at Valspar last week. It’s a 230-yard par 3, the green’s 12 yards wide and someone will hit the middle of the green and, you know, they’ll be like, ‘Oh, really smart shot there.’ I’m like, ‘Well, no, he’s absolutely laced this 4-iron in the middle of the green, that’s right where he’s looking and to hit a 4-iron that straight is really, really hard.’ … Even like chipping, a lot of the stuff just looks flat on TV, but then when you get over the chip, like, oh, great, I have to land it over a mound on a downslope down grain?”
Full piece.

5. Top am Rachel Heck not going pro

Golf Channel’s Brentley Romine…”As Rachel Heck nears the end of her college golf career, she has decided that the LPGA isn’t for her.’

  • “Heck, the 22-year-old Stanford senior who won an NCAA individual title as a freshman and has climbed as high as second in the world amateur rankings, penned a first-person essay for No Laying Up in which she explained her reasoning for remaining amateur after graduation this summer and starting an internship not in professional golf but rather private equity. Heck, a political science major, also will be pinned as a lieutenant in the U.S. Air Force.”

Read her piece on No Laying Up: https://nolayingup.com/blog/why-im-remaining-an-amateur

Full piece.

6. DJ’s new LIV signing

Golf Monthly’s Elliott Heath…”Dustin Johnson‘s LIV Golf team 4Aces GC has announced former TravisMathew CEO Chris Rosaasen as the side’s new General Manager.”

  • “Rosaasen, who is a long-time friend of Johnson, is also the founder of the team’s apparel sponsor Extracurricular and has been CEO of the Omniverse Group for the past four years.
  • “He joins with more than 20 years of “brand-building, marketing, and business leadership” according to LIV Golf, which says his “record of innovation in the golf industry will strengthen and accelerate the growth of the 4Aces GC brand.”
Full piece.

7. Photos from the Houston Open

  • Check out all of our photos from this week’s event!
Full piece.
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Four books for a springtime review

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One thing that never changes over time: snowy evenings give purpose to reading (is it the other way around?) It has been a snowy 2024 in western New York, and I’ve had ample time to tuck into an easy chair with a blanket, coffee, and a book. You’re in luck, because despite the title of this piece, I’ll share five books and their worth with you.

There is great breadth of subject matter from one to five. Golf is as complicated as life, which means that the cover of the book isn’t worth judging. The contents begin the tale, but there is so much more to each topic presented within. If you’re like me, your library grows each year. Despite the value of the virtual, the paper-printed word connects us to the past of golf and humanity. Here’s hoping that you’ll add one or more of these titles to your collection.

        

Rainmaker

Hughes Norton interviewed with Mark McCormack for 20 minutes (30 if you count the missed exit at Logan International) while driving the founder of IMG from Harvard to the airport. The lesson of taking advantage of each moment, of every dollar, because you might not get another opportunity, is the most valuable one that life offers. I say to you, be certain to read this book, because another opportunity to bend the ear of Hughes Norton may not come our way.

Hughes Norton was with Tiger Woods for waaayyy fewer years than you might guess, but they were the critical ones. Be warned: not all of the revelations in this tome are for the faint of heart. Some, in fact, will break your heart. Golf was a sleepy hamlet in the 1990s, until the 16-lane interstate called Eldrick “Tiger” Woods came into town. Everything changed, which meant that everything would change again and again, into eternity. Once the ball starts rolling, it’s impossible to stop.

My favorite aspect of this book is its candor. Hughes Norton is well into his time on Planet Earth. He has no reason to hold back, and he doesn’t. My least favorite aspect is that George Peper got the call to co-author the book (and I didn’t.) Seriously, there is no LFA for me, so this is the best that I could do.

Decision: Buy It!

The Golf Courses of Seth Raynor

Michael Wolf, James Sitar, and Jon Cavalier, in abject partnership, collaborated to produce a handsome volume on the work of gone-too-soon, engineer-turned-golf course architect. Seth Raynor was pulled into the game by Charles Blair MacDonald, the crusty godfather of American golf. Raynor played little golf across the 51 years of his life. His reason? He did not wish to corrupt his designs with the demands and failings of his own game.

Jon Cavalier began his photography career as a contributor to the Golf Club Atlas discussion group. I met him there in a virtual way (we still have yet to shake hands) and have exchanged numerous emails over the years. Despite the demands of his day job, Cavalier has blossomed into the most traveled and prolific course photographer alive today. His photography, both hand-held and drone, makes the pages pop. Michael Wolf invited me and two friends to play his home course, despite having never met any of us in person. His words, melded to those of James Sitar, are the glue that connect Cavalier’s photos.

My favorite aspect of the books is the access it gives to the private-club world of Raynor. Fewer than five of his courses are resort or public access, and knowing people on the inside is not available to all. My suggestion? Write a letter/email and see if a club will let you play. Can’t hurt to try! My one complaint about the book is its horizontal nature. Golf is wide, but I like a little vertical in my photos. It’s not much of a complaint, given the glorious contents within the covers.

Decision: Buy It!!

Big Green Book from The Golfer’s Journal

Beginning with its (over)size, and continuing through the entire contents, there is no descriptor that defines the genre of the Big Green Book. It is photography, essay, layout, poetry, graphics, and stream of consciousness. It harnesses the creative power of a lengthy masthead of today’s finest golf contributors. Quotes from Harvey Penick, verse from Billy Collins, and prose from John Updike partner with images pure and altered, to immerse you in the diverse golf spaces that define this planet.

One of my favorite aspects is the spaces between the words and photos. Have your friends and others write a few notes to you in those blank areas, to personalize your volume even more. One aspect that needs improvement: the lack of female voices. I suspect that will be remedied in future volumes.

Decision: Buy It!!!

Troublemaker and The Unplayable Lie

Books that allege discrimination and mistreatment check two boxes: potentially-salacious reads and debate over whose perspective is accurate. In the end, the presentation of salacious revelation rarely meets the expectation, and the debate over fault is seldom resolved. Lisa Cornwell spent years as a competitive junior and college golfer, before joining The Golf Channel as a reporter and program host.

Despite the dream assignments, there were clouds that covered the sun. Cornwell documents episodes of favoritism and descrimination against her, prior to her departure from The Golf Channel in 2021. Her work echoes the production of the late Marcia Chambers, who wrote for Golf Digest in the 1980s and 1990s. Chambers took issue with many of the potential and real legal issues surrounding golf and its policies of access/no access. Her research culminated in The Unplayable Lie, the first work of its kind to address issues confronted by all genders and ethnicities, and immediately predated the professional debut of Tiger Woods in 1997.

My favorite aspects of the two works, are the courage and conviction that it took to write them, and believe in them. My least favorite aspects are the consistent bias that many groups continue to face. Without awareness, there is no action. Without action, there is no change.

Decision: Buy Them!!!!

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Tour Photo Galleries

Photos from the 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open

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GolfWRX is on site in the Lone Star State this week for the Texas Children’s Houston Open.

General galleries from the putting green and range, WITBs — including Thorbjorn Olesen and Zac Blair — and several pull-out albums await.

As always, we’ll continue to update as more photos flow in. Check out links to all our photos from Houston below.

General Albums

WITB Albums

Pullout Albums

See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.

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