News
The 21 players who can win the Masters
Each year for the Masters, I create a filtering process to help determine the players who are most likely to win the green jacket based on criteria that has strongly predicted outcomes at Augusta. I usually get the list down to roughly 23 players.
Last year, Tiger Woods was one of my 22 players that could win the Masters. Tiger was at 14/1 odds, but two of the top contenders, Brooks Koepka (25/1) and Francesco Molinari (22/1) were also on my list of players who could win the Masters.
Before I discuss my picks for this year’s Masters, I want to go over what I call the “critical holes” for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes on the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in scores exist. One of the interesting aspects about critical holes is that they often change over time due to changes in the course conditions, course design or a change in player strategy, which can create a smaller deviation in scores.
This year, the projected critical holes are No. 8, 13, 14, and 15.
The 15th hole, Fire Thorn, should be considered the most pivotal hole on the course as over the last five Masters the top finishers in the event have gained 0.546 strokes per round on the hole. The next closest hole in terms of the top finishers gaining strokes is the 14th hole, Chinese Fir, where the top finishers have only gained 0.274 strokes per round.
Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won once by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.
Abraham Ancer
John Augenstein (a)
Christiann Bezuidenhout
Cameron Champ
Tyler Duncan
Abel Gallegos (a)
Lanto Griffin
Max Homa
Sungjae Im
Jazz Janewattananond
Sung Kang
Jason Kokrak
Nate Lashley
Yuxin Lin (a)
Lukas Michel (a)
Collin Morikawa
Sebastian Munoz
Andy Ogletree (a)
Carlos Ortiz
CT Pan
Victor Perez
JT Poston
Andrew Putnam
Scottie Scheffler
James Sugrue (a)
Nick Taylor
Erik van Rooyen
Matthew Wolff
Out of the professional first-time invitees the data ranks Jason Kokrak as the best fit, Matthew Wolff the second-best fit, and Cameron Champ the third-best fit. Champ is one of the more fascinating players for the Masters because he has arguably the fastest ball speed on Tour, but he has the lowest launch angle on Tour (6.2 degrees) and produces roughly the Tour average in terms of apex height. Augusta is generally a high ball hitting golf course as low-ball hitters that were superior players and ballstrikers have notoriously struggled at Augusta. It will be interesting if he can carry the trees on some tee shots with his super-low launch angle.
I also filtered out eight past champions I do not believe can contend at Augusta National anymore
Fred Couples
Trevor Immelman
Bernhard Langer
Sandy Lyle
Larry Mize
Jose Maria Olazabal
Vijay Singh
Mike Weir
The Zach Johnson debate
Every year I do my Masters picks, it’s always pointed out that I do not pick former Masters Champion Zach Johnson due to his lack of length off the tee. Augusta National greatly favors long-ball hitters. They can play the par 5s more like par 4s, and typically the longer hitters can also hit the ball higher so they can get their long approach shots to hold the green more easily.
When Johnson won the Masters in 2007, the event featured record-low temperatures in the mid-40s and wind gusts of 33 mph. This made it very hard for any player to reach the par 5s in two shots and allowed Johnson to get into a wedge contest on the par 5s, his strength.
This year, the forecast calls for temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s. There is some rain in the forecast. Rain and wind can be tricky in projecting possible winners of an event as it is dependent upon the course design and how exactly the rain and wind is impacting the field. In the past at Augusta, rain has provided a small advantage to shorter hitters. This is believed to be due to helping the shorter hitters hold the green on long approach shots.
The forecast calls for light winds. Over the past 20 years, the winds have given some shorter hitters the advantage because there is a tendency for shorter hitters to be better with their wedges and short games around the green. Wind makes it more difficult for players to reach the par 5s in two shots and causes more missed greens in regulation and thus the advantage shifts to better wedge players. But unless the forecast or wind changes, there is no sense in not filtering out players that are too short to win at Augusta National.
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Justin Harding
Shugo Imahira
Zach Johnson
Kevin Kisner
Matt Kuchar
Andrew Landry
Graeme McDowell
Kevin Na
Ian Poulter
Chez Reavie
Webb Simpson
Brandt Snedeker
Brendon Todd
A part of the game that is just as critical as distance is the trajectory height a player can create. Last year, I filtered out seven players for hitting the ball too low. Out of those seven players, the best finish was Si Woo Kim at T-21. I use a combination of max height, carry distance, and launch angle to determine if the following players hit the ball too low to win at Augusta.
Lucas Glover
Charles Howell III
Si Woo Kim
Patrick Reed
Since the inauguration of the event, there have only been two winners of the Masters that have previously never made the cut: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 and Gene Sarazen in 1936. Let’s filter them out as well.
Dylan Frittelli
Matt Wallace
I will also filter out the players who missed the cut at Houston. Historically, players that miss the cut the week prior have a substantially lower likelihood of winning the following week compared to the players that made the cut in the previous week or did not play at all.
Sergio Garcia
Phil Mickelson
Charl Schwartzel
Jordan Spieth
Henrik Stenson
Jimmy Walker
Lee Westwood
Lastly, I have filtered out the weak performers from the “Red Zone,” approach shots from 175-225 yards. While Augusta is known for its greens, the winners are determined mostly by the quality of their approach shots throughout the event. In fact, 10 of the last 11 champions have hit at least 49 Greens in Regulation during the week.
Jason Day
Tommy Fleetwood
Adam Hadwin
Billy Horschel
Xander Schauffele
Cameron Smith
Bernd Wiesberger
Danny Willett
Tiger Woods
Tiger Woods will go down as the surprise filtered-out player, but he has not hit the ball well from the Red Zone in recent performances and his ball speed has dropped to roughly 172 mph. With a slow down in speed, it’s not uncommon for iron play performance to follow.
That leaves the following 21 players who can win the Masters
Byeong Hun An (400/1)
Patrick Cantlay (25/1)
Paul Casey (80/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (8/1)
Tony Finau (28/1)
Rickie Fowler (50/1)
Tyrrell Hatton (28/1)
Dustin Johnson (9/1)
Brooks Koepka (16/1)
Marc Leishman (150/1)
Shane Lowry (80/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (28/1)
Rory McIlroy (12/1)
Louis Oosthuizen (66/1)
Jon Rahm (10/1)
Justin Rose (66/1)
Adam Scott (66/1)
Justin Thomas (11/1)
Bubba Watson (28/1)
Gary Woodland (125/1)
Corey Conners (200/1)
Here are my personal top-10 picks
Bryson DeChambeau (8/1)
Dustin Johnson (9/1)
Jon Rahm (10/1)
Rory McIlroy (12/1)
Brook Koepka (16/1)
Tony Finau (28/1)
Tyrrell Hatton (28/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (28/1)
Justin Rose (66/1)
Adam Scott (66/1)
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Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans
GolfWRX is live on site this week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans for the PGA Tour’s one-and-only two-man team event.
As usual, general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums — including some pretty spicy custom putters and headcovers — await your viewing.
Be sure to check back for more photos from the Big Easy, as we’ll continue to update this page with additional galleries throughout the week.
General Albums
- 2024 Zurich Classic – Monday #1
- 2024 Zurich Classic – Monday #2
- 2024 Zurich Classic – Tuesday #1
- 2024 Zurich Classic – Tuesday #2
WITB Albums
- Alex Fitzpatrick – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Austin Cook – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Alejandro Tosti – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Davis Riley – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- MJ Daffue – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Nate Lashley – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- James Nicholas – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Kevin Streelman – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Rasmus Hojgaard – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Tom Whitney – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- SangMoon Bae – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Daniel Berger – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Rory McIlroy – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Russ Cochrane – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Aldrich Potgieter – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
Pullout Albums
- MJ Daffue’s custom Cameron putter – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Cameron putters – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Swag covers ( a few custom for Nick Hardy) – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Custom Bettinardi covers for Matt and Alex Fitzpatrick – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Doug Ghim’s custom Cameron putter – 2024 Zurich Classic
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News
Morning 9: Tiger’s TGL teammates | Woosnam’s criticism of Cantlay | Rory’s return to tour policy board
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News
Tour Rundown: Six-pack of tourneys follows Masters
Brazil and Texas were kindred souls this week, at least when it came to weather. Both regions experienced torrential delays, and three tournaments were held up. The LPGA, PGA Tour Americas, and PGA Tour Champions were compelled to reduce play or work extra holes into Sunday. As if that weren’t enough, South Carolina and the PGA Tour fell victim to nature’s wrath, with lightning postponing the conclusion of the event to Monday.
The year’s first women’s major championship was celebrated in Texas. The Chevron is gaining a bit of tradition in its second year after relocation. This year’s event culminated in the continued coronation of the game’s current best. The Korn Ferry Tour saw a top-twenty performance from a 15-year old amateur, while the second event of the week on the big tour found a winner in the Dominican Republic. Six events is more than a handful, so let’s get right to it, with this week’s (delayed) Tour Rundown.
LPGA @ Chevron Championship: Korda corrals second major title
The winter of 2022-2023 seems so distant for current Nelly Korda. A mysterious ailment sapped all of her energy, just as the world appeared to have finally emerged from the pandemic. We never quite secured the complete information that we desired, but no one can say that any of us deserved to know more than Nelly wished to share. One thing is for certain: Nelly Korda has returned to top form, and the world number one golfer is at least one level above anyone else on tour.
Korda began her 2024 campaign with a January victory in the Drive One Championship. In her next start, in March, she continued her assault on the record books, with a win at the Se Ri Pak. She won again the following week, at the Ford, then defeated Leona Maguire in the final match at the T-Mobile Match Play, for a fourth consecutive victory. Would the increased hype around a major championship have an impact on her game? Well, no.
Korda began play at the Chevron Championship with a score of 68. She trailed Lauren Coughlin by two after 18 holes, but caught her with a second-round 69. Coughlin would ultimately tie for third spot with Brooke Henderson. Henderson played with Korda on day four, but the middle third of the round was her undoing. Making a late move was Maja Stark. House Stark closed with birdies at 17 and 18 to reach 11 under par. Both Korda and Strak played the final three days in identical numbers: 69 each day.
Korda held a firm hand on the tournament over the course of the final day. She stood minus-four for the round through ten holes, before a bit of sloppy play made things competitive again. Bogeys at 11 and 15 opened the door a wee bit for Stark. Korda was equal to the test, however, and closed stylishly with birdie at 18.
Safely around the green on the 72nd hole
Watch @NellyKorda‘s historic finish now on NBC! pic.twitter.com/1zaAYtbaCz
— LPGA (@LPGA) April 21, 2024
PGA Tour 1 @ RBC: Scottie, so hottie!
Nelly isn’t the only golfer on fire, although Scottie Scheffler still has a ways to go to match her. Scheffler proved this week that he has a game for all courses. After winning comfortably at lengthy Augusta National, Scheffler shifted gears and game to the wee Sea Pines course, and won again. That’s two weeks in a row for the man from New Jersey/Texas, so let’s learn how he did it.
Scheffler totaled 69 on day one, and found himself six shots behind leader J.T. Poston. Scheffler revealed that his teacher, Randy Smith, would tell him that he didn’t need to be the best 15 year-old; just the best 25 year-old. It was easy, then, to play the long game and consider all 72 holes, instead of just 18. Scheffler improved to 65 on Friday, and then went even lower on Saturday. His 63 moved him to the top of the board, and caused the golfverse to wonder if Scheffler would win for a second consecutive week.
Sunday saw all the chasers fall away. Scores between 70 and 72 from Patrick Rodgers, Collin Morikawa, and Sepp Straka meant that others would need to seize the day, if Scheffler were to do more than coast. Wyndham Clark and Justin Thomas each moved inside the top five with fourth-round 65s, but no one ever got close enough to the world number one. The win was Scheffler’s 10th on tour, and made him the betting favorite for next month’s PGA Championship at Valhalla.
Scottie Scheffler can save par from just about anywhere.
Including the water ?
(Presented by @CDWCorp) pic.twitter.com/RUqL2sBrr9
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 22, 2024
PGA Tour 2 @ Corales Puntacana: Baton Boy claims 8th Tour triumph
If you’ve ever seen Billy Horschel toss a club, you know that he doesn’t do so in anger. More likely is a calculated, soaring arc, paired with a look of fractured disbelief, followed by a quick catch of the cudgel. Ergo, Baton Boy. This week on the island of Hispaniola, the native of Grant, Florida, outworked and outhustled everyone else on Sunday. Horschel gathered seven birdies and an eagle, on the way to a 63 and a 23-under par total.
The former Florida Gator zipped past the four golfers in front of him, and left the remaining field in the rear-view mirror. Horschel’s round was two shots better than anyone else, and moved him two shots ahead of third-round leader Wesley Bryan. One of the famed Bryan Brothers, Wes closed with birdie at the last to post a 68 that would have won the week on any other day.
Walking it in with a fist pump ?@BillyHo_Golf is 9-under on the day and leads by two @CoralesChamp. pic.twitter.com/N6rjL1GGGA
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 21, 2024
Korn Ferry Tour @ LeCom Suncoast: It’s Widing in extra holes
Miles Russell probably won’t have to serve detention for ditching class on Thursday and Friday. The high school freshman made his KFT debut, survived the 36-hole cut, and toyed with a top-ten finish. He ultimately tied for 20th at 14-under par, six shots behind the three co-leaders. My guess is that Epstein’s Mom will write him a note, and he’ll get a pass. By finishing top-25, Russell earned a spot in next week’s event. Yikes!
Back to the top of the board. Patrick Cover, Steven Fisk, and Tim Widing all found their way to the magic number of -20. Fisk made birdie at the last, after bogeys at 16 and 17. Cover had three bogeys on the back nine, but a birdie at 14 was enough to get him to overtime. Widing was plus-one on the day through four, but played interstellar golf over the final 14. Six birdies moved him from Russell-ville to extra time.
The trio scurried to the 18th tee, where Cover drove into a fairway bunker. He was unable to reach the green with his approach, made bogey, and exited the overtime session. Widing and Fisk returned to the final deck once more, and matters were resolved. Fisk was unable to convert a long par putt, and Widing (pronounced VEE-ding) tapped in for his first KFT title.
The feeling of relief when you know you won. ???
Tim Widing is now a champion on the #KornFerryTour. pic.twitter.com/K0vgiZ21UG
— Korn Ferry Tour (@KornFerryTour) April 21, 2024
PGA Tour Americas @ Brasil Open: Mr. Anderson finds a way
Golf is a funny game. Matthew Anderson held a lead with one round to play. He made six pars on Sunday, and sprinkled the rest of his card with birdies and bogeys. In complete contrast, Ollie Osborne played consistently on the day, posting four birdies and zero bogeys. Connor Godsey was not far off Osborne’s pace, with seven birdies and but two bogeys on the scorecard. So, of course, Matthew Anderson won by a stroke over Osborne and Godsey.
Not how, but how many, is another one of those platitudes that we all learn early on. Despite five bogeys through his first 14 holes, Anderson summoned the defiant grit to make birdie at the 71st and 72nd holes. After making deuce at the penultimat hole, Anderson’s swerving effort at the last looked as if it should miss low, but it had enough pace to stay inside the hole and fall for a closing four at the par-five finisher.
Birdie-birdie finish to secure the ?
Mississauga-native Matthew Anderson is your 69th ECP Brazil Open Champion. pic.twitter.com/ONE8hIUjeS
— PGA TOUR Americas (@PGATOURAmericas) April 21, 2024
PGA Tour Champions @ Invited Celebrity: Broadhurst stands tall
What do you call a tournament that begins on Friday, takes Saturday off, and finishes on Sunday? Fortunate is one adjective to use. A weather system moved through Texas this weekend, and made a mess of things in Irving. After Thomas Bjorn signed for 64 on day one, rain and all things counter-productive moved through the Las Colinas resort, ensuring that Saturday would be nothing more than a rest day. When Sunday arrived, conditions had improved, and the game was on. Bjorn was unable to preserve his Friday magic, although he did record a 70 for -8. He finished in a third-place tie with Y.E. Yang.
David Toms, the 2001 PGA Championship victor, presented Sunday’s low round, and moved to 10-under par. Toms made one mistake on the day. He lived in the rough on the 9th hole, ultimately making bogey. The rest of the day was immaculate, as seven birdies came his way, resulting in a six-under par 65. Only one golfer was able to surpass Toms, and that was Paul Broadhurst.
Broadhurst nearly matched Toms for daily honors. His mistake came early, with bogey at the second. He bounced back with eagle at the third, and added three more birdies for 66 and 11-under par. Over his first three seasons on the Tour Champions, Broadhurst won five times, including two major titles. His fifth win came in 2018, making this win his first in six years. A long time coming, for sure, but well earned.
Looking at the hole is working for @PBroadhurstGolf ?
He leads by one after a clutch birdie on 15 @InvitedCC. pic.twitter.com/S0rhcVwaeE
— PGA TOUR Champions (@ChampionsTour) April 21, 2024
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Pingback: 5 things we learned Friday at the Masters – GolfWRX
JoeB
Nov 11, 2020 at 3:02 pm
What about Francesco Molinari?
ScottM
Nov 11, 2020 at 9:21 am
“The Masters has only been won once by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.”
Wrong, wrong, wrong – why do people keep repeating this?
Horton Smith was a first-time attendee when he won the inaugural tournament in 1934. As was Gene Sarazen a year later.
Look at the 1934 results on the official Masters website:
“Smith remains one of three players to win in his first start at Augusta National Golf Club.”
Pingback: Lee Elder: Honored, honorary starter at ANGC this year | Garcia out with COVID-19 | Why can win the Masters (and why Tiger can’t) – GolfWRX
Travis
Nov 10, 2020 at 4:41 am
Your comment about those who miss the cut the week before is also false. Jordan Speith was cut the year before his win.
Ty Web
Nov 10, 2020 at 1:45 pm
You need to reread that. He did not say it was an absolute.
Richie Hunt
Nov 11, 2020 at 7:50 am
That’s incorrect. He finished 3rd at Houston the week before the Masters when he won.
https://www.espn.com/golf/leaderboard/_/tournamentId/2244
freeze
Nov 9, 2020 at 9:16 pm
players hit the ball too low to win at Augusta. Puts Patrick Reed in that category who won at Augusta 2 years ago, complete fail
Dan
Nov 10, 2020 at 12:13 am
Other multi time winners s thy hit it “too” low:
Palmer
Player
Floyd
Jimmy Demaret
Jose Olazabal
Faldo
Crenshaw
I mean, I understand the point he’s trying to make in the article but statistics are only a stepping off point.
mike
Nov 10, 2020 at 9:25 am
Isn’t Augusta a completely different course by now since all those on your list won? Plays a lot different with the extra length I would imagine, and that is probably where you need the height. Its longer and firmer now.
Ty Web
Nov 10, 2020 at 4:45 pm
Mike makes a good point Dan. There is not a single player you listed that can win.
Chris
Nov 11, 2020 at 10:44 pm
Thank You!! I was going to make the same comment!!
Dan
Nov 9, 2020 at 7:59 pm
I’ll take the rest of the field against your top 10…
J
Nov 9, 2020 at 4:29 pm
Rahmbo.
Garrett
Nov 9, 2020 at 3:02 pm
I know this is pretty much a good article, but you eliminated recent champions with your logic!! I mean, Patrick Reed and Tiger literally JUST won the event. You should give them (and others) their own category – the “these guys are so good they defy logic” category.
Rich
Nov 9, 2020 at 10:25 pm
He did not eliminate Tiger and Reed for having won The Masters before. Go back and reread. They fell into other categories. The former winners he eliminated are older guys.
Richie Hunt
Nov 11, 2020 at 8:02 am
Just because they won doesn’t mean that they will win, again. Tiger’s play at last year’s Masters is far different than it has been since the return from the Tour suspending play. He’s lost about 7-8 mph of ball speed and his iron play has been very bad.
Reed is hitting the ball very low right now and his iron play has not been all that hot. Recency trumps credentials.
William
Nov 9, 2020 at 2:58 pm
I really like Louie Oo. and root for him to do well. But, is he not both short and low? How does he make the list? Good from “red zone”?
Blade Junkie
Nov 9, 2020 at 1:49 pm
where’s Molinari ?
Miamistomp
Nov 9, 2020 at 1:47 pm
fInau -no way
Morikawa and Redd I think have a chance
Pingback: Masters 2020 staff picks – GolfWRX
Bubbert
Nov 9, 2020 at 1:02 pm
As much as I like Finau (and I do) he could find ways to lose even if he was the single contestant teeing up…
ChristianR
Nov 9, 2020 at 12:30 pm
Garcia out for Covid.
Rose been very near to win two times, I agree but lately not so much game from him aside couple of good rounds in his latest event.
Really curious on Bryson approach.