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The 21 players who can win the Masters

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Each year for the Masters, I create a filtering process to help determine the players who are most likely to win the green jacket based on criteria that has strongly predicted outcomes at Augusta. I usually get the list down to roughly 23 players.

Last year, Tiger Woods was one of my 22 players that could win the Masters. Tiger was at 14/1 odds, but two of the top contenders, Brooks Koepka (25/1) and Francesco Molinari (22/1) were also on my list of players who could win the Masters.

Before I discuss my picks for this year’s Masters, I want to go over what I call the “critical holes” for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes on the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in scores exist. One of the interesting aspects about critical holes is that they often change over time due to changes in the course conditions, course design or a change in player strategy, which can create a smaller deviation in scores.

This year, the projected critical holes are No. 8, 13, 14, and 15.

The 15th hole, Fire Thorn, should be considered the most pivotal hole on the course as over the last five Masters the top finishers in the event have gained 0.546 strokes per round on the hole. The next closest hole in terms of the top finishers gaining strokes is the 14th hole, Chinese Fir, where the top finishers have only gained 0.274 strokes per round.

Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won once by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

Abraham Ancer
John Augenstein (a)
Christiann Bezuidenhout
Cameron Champ
Tyler Duncan
Abel Gallegos (a)
Lanto Griffin
Max Homa
Sungjae Im
Jazz Janewattananond
Sung Kang
Jason Kokrak
Nate Lashley
Yuxin Lin (a)
Lukas Michel (a)
Collin Morikawa
Sebastian Munoz
Andy Ogletree (a)
Carlos Ortiz
CT Pan
Victor Perez
JT Poston
Andrew Putnam
Scottie Scheffler
James Sugrue (a)
Nick Taylor
Erik van Rooyen
Matthew Wolff

Out of the professional first-time invitees the data ranks Jason Kokrak as the best fit, Matthew Wolff the second-best fit, and Cameron Champ the third-best fit. Champ is one of the more fascinating players for the Masters because he has arguably the fastest ball speed on Tour, but he has the lowest launch angle on Tour (6.2 degrees) and produces roughly the Tour average in terms of apex height. Augusta is generally a high ball hitting golf course as low-ball hitters that were superior players and ballstrikers have notoriously struggled at Augusta. It will be interesting if he can carry the trees on some tee shots with his super-low launch angle.

I also filtered out eight past champions I do not believe can contend at Augusta National anymore

Fred Couples
Trevor Immelman
Bernhard Langer
Sandy Lyle
Larry Mize
Jose Maria Olazabal
Vijay Singh
Mike Weir

The Zach Johnson debate

Every year I do my Masters picks, it’s always pointed out that I do not pick former Masters Champion Zach Johnson due to his lack of length off the tee. Augusta National greatly favors long-ball hitters. They can play the par 5s more like par 4s, and typically the longer hitters can also hit the ball higher so they can get their long approach shots to hold the green more easily.

When Johnson won the Masters in 2007, the event featured record-low temperatures in the mid-40s and wind gusts of 33 mph. This made it very hard for any player to reach the par 5s in two shots and allowed Johnson to get into a wedge contest on the par 5s, his strength.

This year, the forecast calls for temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s. There is some rain in the forecast. Rain and wind can be tricky in projecting possible winners of an event as it is dependent upon the course design and how exactly the rain and wind is impacting the field. In the past at Augusta, rain has provided a small advantage to shorter hitters. This is believed to be due to helping the shorter hitters hold the green on long approach shots.

The forecast calls for light winds. Over the past 20 years, the winds have given some shorter hitters the advantage because there is a tendency for shorter hitters to be better with their wedges and short games around the green. Wind makes it more difficult for players to reach the par 5s in two shots and causes more missed greens in regulation and thus the advantage shifts to better wedge players. But unless the forecast or wind changes, there is no sense in not filtering out players that are too short to win at Augusta National.

Rafa Cabrera Bello
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Justin Harding
Shugo Imahira
Zach Johnson
Kevin Kisner
Matt Kuchar
Andrew Landry
Graeme McDowell
Kevin Na
Ian Poulter
Chez Reavie
Webb Simpson
Brandt Snedeker
Brendon Todd

A part of the game that is just as critical as distance is the trajectory height a player can create. Last year, I filtered out seven players for hitting the ball too low. Out of those seven players, the best finish was Si Woo Kim at T-21. I use a combination of max height, carry distance, and launch angle to determine if the following players hit the ball too low to win at Augusta.

Lucas Glover
Charles Howell III
Si Woo Kim
Patrick Reed

Since the inauguration of the event, there have only been two winners of the Masters that have previously never made the cut: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 and Gene Sarazen in 1936. Let’s filter them out as well.

Dylan Frittelli
Matt Wallace

I will also filter out the players who missed the cut at Houston. Historically, players that miss the cut the week prior have a substantially lower likelihood of winning the following week compared to the players that made the cut in the previous week or did not play at all.

Sergio Garcia
Phil Mickelson
Charl Schwartzel
Jordan Spieth
Henrik Stenson
Jimmy Walker
Lee Westwood

Lastly, I have filtered out the weak performers from the “Red Zone,” approach shots from 175-225 yards. While Augusta is known for its greens, the winners are determined mostly by the quality of their approach shots throughout the event. In fact, 10 of the last 11 champions have hit at least 49 Greens in Regulation during the week.

Jason Day
Tommy Fleetwood
Adam Hadwin
Billy Horschel
Xander Schauffele
Cameron Smith
Bernd Wiesberger
Danny Willett
Tiger Woods

Tiger Woods will go down as the surprise filtered-out player, but he has not hit the ball well from the Red Zone in recent performances and his ball speed has dropped to roughly 172 mph. With a slow down in speed, it’s not uncommon for iron play performance to follow.

That leaves the following 21 players who can win the Masters

Byeong Hun An (400/1)
Patrick Cantlay (25/1)
Paul Casey (80/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (8/1)
Tony Finau (28/1)
Rickie Fowler (50/1)
Tyrrell Hatton (28/1)
Dustin Johnson (9/1)
Brooks Koepka (16/1)
Marc Leishman (150/1)
Shane Lowry (80/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (28/1)
Rory McIlroy (12/1)
Louis Oosthuizen (66/1)
Jon Rahm (10/1)
Justin Rose (66/1)
Adam Scott (66/1)
Justin Thomas (11/1)
Bubba Watson (28/1)
Gary Woodland (125/1)
Corey Conners (200/1)

Here are my personal top-10 picks

Bryson DeChambeau (8/1)
Dustin Johnson (9/1)
Jon Rahm (10/1)
Rory McIlroy (12/1)
Brook Koepka (16/1)
Tony Finau (28/1)
Tyrrell Hatton (28/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (28/1)
Justin Rose (66/1)
Adam Scott (66/1)

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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. Pingback: 5 things we learned Friday at the Masters – GolfWRX

  2. JoeB

    Nov 11, 2020 at 3:02 pm

    What about Francesco Molinari?

  3. ScottM

    Nov 11, 2020 at 9:21 am

    “The Masters has only been won once by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.”

    Wrong, wrong, wrong – why do people keep repeating this?

    Horton Smith was a first-time attendee when he won the inaugural tournament in 1934. As was Gene Sarazen a year later.

    Look at the 1934 results on the official Masters website:

    “Smith remains one of three players to win in his first start at Augusta National Golf Club.”

  4. Pingback: Lee Elder: Honored, honorary starter at ANGC this year | Garcia out with COVID-19 | Why can win the Masters (and why Tiger can’t) – GolfWRX

  5. Travis

    Nov 10, 2020 at 4:41 am

    Your comment about those who miss the cut the week before is also false. Jordan Speith was cut the year before his win.

  6. freeze

    Nov 9, 2020 at 9:16 pm

    players hit the ball too low to win at Augusta. Puts Patrick Reed in that category who won at Augusta 2 years ago, complete fail

    • Dan

      Nov 10, 2020 at 12:13 am

      Other multi time winners s thy hit it “too” low:
      Palmer
      Player
      Floyd
      Jimmy Demaret
      Jose Olazabal
      Faldo
      Crenshaw

      I mean, I understand the point he’s trying to make in the article but statistics are only a stepping off point.

      • mike

        Nov 10, 2020 at 9:25 am

        Isn’t Augusta a completely different course by now since all those on your list won? Plays a lot different with the extra length I would imagine, and that is probably where you need the height. Its longer and firmer now.

        • Ty Web

          Nov 10, 2020 at 4:45 pm

          Mike makes a good point Dan. There is not a single player you listed that can win.

    • Chris

      Nov 11, 2020 at 10:44 pm

      Thank You!! I was going to make the same comment!!

  7. Dan

    Nov 9, 2020 at 7:59 pm

    I’ll take the rest of the field against your top 10…

  8. J

    Nov 9, 2020 at 4:29 pm

    Rahmbo.

  9. Garrett

    Nov 9, 2020 at 3:02 pm

    I know this is pretty much a good article, but you eliminated recent champions with your logic!! I mean, Patrick Reed and Tiger literally JUST won the event. You should give them (and others) their own category – the “these guys are so good they defy logic” category.

    • Rich

      Nov 9, 2020 at 10:25 pm

      He did not eliminate Tiger and Reed for having won The Masters before. Go back and reread. They fell into other categories. The former winners he eliminated are older guys.

    • Richie Hunt

      Nov 11, 2020 at 8:02 am

      Just because they won doesn’t mean that they will win, again. Tiger’s play at last year’s Masters is far different than it has been since the return from the Tour suspending play. He’s lost about 7-8 mph of ball speed and his iron play has been very bad.

      Reed is hitting the ball very low right now and his iron play has not been all that hot. Recency trumps credentials.

  10. William

    Nov 9, 2020 at 2:58 pm

    I really like Louie Oo. and root for him to do well. But, is he not both short and low? How does he make the list? Good from “red zone”?

  11. Blade Junkie

    Nov 9, 2020 at 1:49 pm

    where’s Molinari ?

  12. Miamistomp

    Nov 9, 2020 at 1:47 pm

    fInau -no way
    Morikawa and Redd I think have a chance

  13. Pingback: Masters 2020 staff picks – GolfWRX

  14. Bubbert

    Nov 9, 2020 at 1:02 pm

    As much as I like Finau (and I do) he could find ways to lose even if he was the single contestant teeing up…

  15. ChristianR

    Nov 9, 2020 at 12:30 pm

    Garcia out for Covid.
    Rose been very near to win two times, I agree but lately not so much game from him aside couple of good rounds in his latest event.
    Really curious on Bryson approach.

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News

Morning 9: 58 on the Korn Ferry Tour | Rory on possible return to policy board

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By Ben Alberstadt with Gianni Magliocco.

For comments: [email protected]

Good Friday morning, golf fans, may a bountiful weekend of golf be in store for you!

1. 58 on the Korn Ferry Tour

KFT staff report…”Frankie Capan III went crazy low Thursday on the Korn Ferry Tour. Nearly in record fashion.”

  • “Capan carded 13-under 58 in the opening round of the Veritex Bank Championship, matching the second lowest score in Korn Ferry Tour history. He fell one shy of Cristobal Del Solar’s record 57, set at the Astara Golf Championship presented by Mastercard earlier this year, but it was a heck of a show nonetheless.”
  • “The Minnesota native played an eight-hole stretch in 9-under Thursday, following an eagle at the par-5 ninth with seven straight birdies to begin the back nine at par-71 Texas Rangers Golf Club. He “cooled off” with a two-putt par at the long par-4 17th hole. He arrived at the par-5 18th hole at 13 under for the round, but he found a fairway bunker off the tee, laid up to 134 yards and missed his third shot left of the green. He chipped to 7 feet and drained the par putt to match the Korn Ferry Tour’s second-lowest score of 58, carded by Stephan Jaeger in the opening round of the 2016 Ellie Mae Classic at TPC Stonebrae.”
Full piece.

2. Team McIlowery starts strong

Paul Hodowanic for PGATour.com…”Late Thursday afternoon in New Orleans, Rory McIlroy rested his head on Shane Lowry’s shoulder.”

  • “It wasn’t the typical post-round moment, but this isn’t the typical event. McIlroy and Lowry teamed up for this week’s Zurich Classic of New Orleans, the PGA TOUR’s lone team event, and the all-Irish duo put on a show. Sporting matching pink-on-navy getups, McIlroy/Lowry opened in a best-ball 11-under 61 in Thursday’s Four-ball format at TPC Louisiana.”
  • “This partnership might have stemmed from a boozy brunch last fall, but their opening-round performance at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans gave the field a sobering reminder: They’ll be tough to top.”
Full piece.

3. LPGA Tour: Grace Kim in front

AP report…”Grace Kim shot a 7-under 64 at Wilshire Country Club to take the first-round lead Thursday in the LPGA Tour’s JM Eagle LA Championship.”

  • “Playing in the morning session, the 23-year-old Australian capped her bogey-free round with a chip-in birdie on the par-3 18th.”
  • “Well, I chunked my tee shot on the last hole 20 meters short and then I chipped it in it,” Kim said. “I think that’s pretty cool, in front of everyone
Full piece.

4. McIlroy on rejoining policy board

Golf Channel’s Ryan Lavner…”Rory McIlroy said Wednesday that he is willing to rejoin the PGA Tour policy board if the other player directors want him.”

  • “As first reported by the Guardian, Webb Simpson has submitted a letter stating that he’d like to resign from the board, but only if his vacant seat is filled by McIlroy, who stepped down last fall because of the toll it had taken on him professionally and personally.”
  • “Five months later, what has changed?”
  • “I think I can be helpful,” McIlroy said Wednesday ahead of the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, where he is partnering with Shane Lowry. “I don’t think there’s been much progress made in the last eight months, and I was hopeful that there would be. I think I could be helpful to the process. But only if people want me involved, I guess.”
Full piece.

5. Charlie Woods shoots 81 in U.S. Open qualifier

Golfweek’s Cameron Jourdan…”Charlie Woods is going to have to wait to play in the U.S. Open.”

“The 15-year-old son of Tiger Woods played Thursday in local qualifying for the United States Golf Association’s national championship, set for June 13-16 at Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina. Charlie played at The Legacy Golf & Tennis Club in Port St. Lucie, Florida, and he shot 9-over 81.”

“Charlie’s round featured a bogey on his opening hole, the par-4 first. He then doubled the par-5 second. A pair of pars followed before his lone birdie on the front, but another double the next hole, the par-4 sixth, had him turn in 4-over 40.”

Full piece.

6. Photos from the Zurich Classic

GolfWRX is live on site this week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans for the PGA Tour’s one-and-only two-man team event.

Check out all our photos at the link below!

Full piece.
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Tour Photo Galleries

Photos from the 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans

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GolfWRX is live on site this week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans for the PGA Tour’s one-and-only two-man team event.

As usual, general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums — including some pretty spicy custom putters and headcovers — await your viewing.

Be sure to check back for more photos from the Big Easy, as we’ll continue to update this page with additional galleries throughout the week.

General Albums

WITB Albums

Pullout Albums

See what GolfWRXers are saying about our photos from the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in the forums.

 

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Morning 9: Tiger’s TGL teammates | Woosnam’s criticism of Cantlay | Rory’s return to tour policy board

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By Ben Alberstadt with Gianni Magliocco.

For comments: [email protected]

Good Tuesday morning, golf fans, as the PGA Tour heads to New Orleans for the Zurich Classic.

1. 15-year-old finishes top 20 on KFT

Jay Coffin for Golf Digest…”During a week when most eyes were on Scottie Scheffler and Nelly Korda, the 15-year-old lefty finished off an incredible week with a five-under 66 in the final round of the Korn Ferry Tour’s LECOM Suncoast Classic at Lakewood Ranch in Florida.”

  • “After opening with 68-66-70, Russell finished at 14-under-par total to tie for 20th place. The finish in which he jumped 28 positions on the leaderboard on the final day, gives him an exemption into next week’s Veritex Bank Championship at Rangers Park in Arlington, Texas. He’s the youngest player to finish inside the top 20 on the PGA of Korn Ferry tours, according to records that go back to 1983.”
Full piece.

2. Understandably, Nelly WDs

Golf Channel’s Ryan Lavner…”Nelly Korda’s bid for a record-setting sixth consecutive win will have to wait a few weeks.”

  • “A day after capturing the Chevron Championship during a marathon final round in Houston, Korda announced on social media that she was withdrawing from this week’s JM Eagle LA Championship.”
  • “It was not an easy decision,” she wrote. “After the unbelievable week at the Chevron and grinding through the mental and physical challenges of four events in the past five weeks, I am definitely feeling exhausted. With so much still to come throughout 2024, I feel I need to listen to my body and get some rest, so I can be ready for the remainder of the season.”
Full piece.

3. Scheffler’s impressive No. 1 feat

Golf Channel’s Brentley Romine…”After Scheffler’s victory Monday morning at the RBC Heritage, Scheffler upped his points average to 15.016 and increased his advantage in the Official World Golf Ranking over No. 2 Rory McIlroy to more than double McIlroy’s 7.365 average, meaning Scheffler is ranked further ahead of No. 2 than No. 2 is ahead of the last-ranked player.”

  • “The last time a No. 1 player had a greater points average was Woods, who was at 15.4564 on Dec. 6, 2009. But Woods was less than seven average points ahead of No. 2 Phil Mickelson at the time. Earlier that year, Woods was 7.735 ahead of Mickelson, which is the last time the gap between Nos. 1 and 2 was greater than Scheffler’s current 7.651 advantage.”
Full piece.

4. Zurich field notes

PGATour.com’s Adam Stanley…”Rory McIlroy will make his tournament debut alongside good pal, Ryder Cup teammate, and Irishman Shane Lowry – a duo that was firmed up during a celebratory lunch after the Ryder Cup last fall… Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele will try to reprise their 2022 win here. Cantlay and Schauffele have both the Foursomes and Four-ball scoring records at this event… Davis Riley and Nick Hardy will defend their 2023 title. No team has gone back-to-back… Three sets of brothers (and two sets of twins!) will play together with twins Rasmus and Nicolai Højgaard and Parker and Pierceson Coody in the field along with Alex and Matt Fitzpatrick. Alex Fitzpatrick and Rasmus Højgaard are sponsor invites…”

  • “Billy Horschel, who won last week at the Corales Puntacana Championship, will be without his previous partner Sam Burns, as Burns and his wife are expecting their first child any day. Horschel will instead be paired with fellow University of Florida alum Tyson Alexander. Horschel has won the Zurich Classic when it was both an individual and team event… Other notable pairings include Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Sahith Theegala and Will Zalatoris, and Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin. The Canadian duo finished runner-up a year ago and would like nothing more than to show Presidents Cup International Team captain Mike Weir how well they play together… Steve Stricker will play his second TOUR event this season (after earning his way into THE PLAYERS Championship), teaming up with Matt Kuchar.”
Full piece.

5. Tiger’s teammates

Field Level Media report…”Tiger Woods announced Monday that Max Homa, Tom Kim and Kevin Kisner have joined his Jupiter Links GC TGL team.”

  • “The virtual golf league headed by Woods and Rory McIlroy will begin its inaugural season next January. Woods also unveiled the team’s logo.”
  • “I have already shared my excitement and optimism for TGL as a league and product,” said Woods. “Now that we have finalized our roster with a team of world-class golfers, I am even more confident that this group will proudly represent the Jupiter (Fla.) area and connect with our fans for years to come.”
Full piece.

6. Woosnam questions Cantlay’s decision

Our Matt Vincenzi…”After the horn sounded to suspend play due to darkness, Cantlay, who’s ball was in the fairway on the 18th hole, had a decision to make. With over 200 yards into the green and extreme winds working against the shot, conventional wisdom would be to wait until Monday morning to hit the shot.”

  • “On the other hand, if he could finish the hole, he may just want to get the event over with so he could get out of Hilton Head.”
  • “Curiously, Cantlay chose neither of those options. After hitting 3-wood into the green, and still coming up short, the former FedEx Cup champion chose to mark his ball and chip and putt on Monday morning.”
  • “Ian Woosnam, who was watching from home, took to X to give his thoughts on Cantlay’s decision making.”
  • “Cantlay would end up getting up and down for par when play resumed at 8:00 am Monday morning.”
Full piece.

7. JT on Scheffler’s “weird” equipment choice

Our Matt Vincenzi…”After Justin Thomas’ third round of the RBC Heritage, the two-time major champion went in the broadcast booth alongside the CBS crew.”

  • “While Thomas was watching Scottie Scheffler play on the back nine of his third round, he wondered aloud why Scottie uses high-numbered golf balls.”
  • “Does anybody else think it’s weird that Scottie uses high numbers? I don’t know if I’ve ever seen an elite player use high-numbered golf balls.”
  • “Amanda Balionis who was on the grounds chimed in, reporting that analyst Dottie Pepper had wondered the same thing earlier that day.”
  • “I’ve been going about this wrong my whole life,” Thomas jokingly said.
Full piece.

8. Rory to rejoin PGA Tour policy board

Mark Schlabach for ESPN…”Four-time major championship winner Rory McIlroy is poised to return to the PGA Tour’s policy board, pending a vote by the board, which could come as early as this week, sources confirmed to ESPN on Tuesday.”

  • “One of the PGA Tour’s most vocal supporters during its three-year battle with LIV Golf, McIlroy abruptly resigned as a player director on the tour’s influential policy board in November.”
  • “He is expected to replace policy board player director Webb Simpson, who intends to step away before his two-year term expires in 2025.”
Full piece.

9. Weir names Presidents Cup assistants

PGA Tour report…”International Team Captain Mike Weir announced Ernie Els, Trevor Immelman, Geoff Ogilvy and Camilo Villegas as captain’s assistants for the 2024 Presidents Cup, which will be played at The Royal Montreal Golf Club in Montreal, Canada, Sept. 24-29.

Full piece.
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