Opinion & Analysis

The top-5 newsmakers of 2022

Published

1 year ago

Dec 27, 2022

Jason Daniels

Check out my rundown of the the top-5 news-making golfers of 2022.

1. Cameron Smith

2022 was one hell of a year for golf, but one subject dominated the first half, and may continue to do so over the next 12 months.

Like it or loathe it, LIV was monumental news, and there are probably half a dozen names that could make the top spot in this column. For me, Aussie Cam Smith tops the lot.

Having shown progression and winning form on the PGA Tour over the past 24 months, Smith raised his game last season, following up back-to-back wins at his home PGA Championship and the pairs competition, the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, and the Sony Open.

A stunning 34-under win at the Tournament of Champions, victory at the prestigious Sawgrass and a fourth top-10 at Augusta saw the 29-year-old make his way comfortably inside the top 10 in the world rankings, becoming one of the main challengers to Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, and Rory McIlroy for the number one slot.

Then the rumblings began.

Having already secured major winners such as Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka, the LIV rumor mill went into overdrive, strongly indicating that Smith and former Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama were the next targets. Most golf fans would have seen the Japanese player’s loss of form and would have expected him to make the leap over the now very progressive Aussie.

And then the most bizarre week.

Although fate looked to have nearly secured a St. Andrews victory for Rory McIlroy, both he and Viktor Hovland saw a four-shot overnight lead vanish down the stretch, with Smith simply out-playing them and performing beautifully on and around the hallowed putting surfaces.

After a best-of-the-day 64 had won the most famous trophy in golf, the Claret Jug, Smith faced a barrage of questions about where he went from this victory, with the push towards revealing whether he was a “yeah” or “no” to LIV.

It was a strange reply: “My team around me worries about all that stuff.” He convinced very few.

Of course, it would never stop there, and as the Aussie made his way to two of the three FedEx events (he pulled out of the middle one — the BMW — due to “injury”) he was constantly batting away the reporter’s questions.

He might have said, “I’m ready to cop some heat,” before continuing, “I understand what I’ve said, but as I said, I’m here to play to win the FedEx Cup Playoffs. That’s my number one goal, and whatever happens after that will come from me.” He might also have tried unconvincingly to detract from compatriot Cameron Percy’s view that both he and Marc Leishman were “gone,” but few took his side and at the end of August LIV confirmed they had landed their biggest catch to date.

Smith was clear about his reasons. He stated the signing was a “business decision,” whilst also mentioning that the worldwide LIV schedule was far more appealing:

“I’ve lived over here seven years now, and I love living in the U.S., but just little things like missing friends’ weddings, birthday parties and seeing your mates having a great time at rugby league games has been tough.”

Since joining the rebel tour, Smith has won once from five starts on LIV, with total earnings of just over $7 million, and turned up to dominate the Australian PGA for his third win in five years at the event, a tournament he enjoyed replaying in his local.

Cam Smith celebrating at an Australian pub is everything you think it would be. ?

— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) December 1, 2022

In his final event of the year, Smith missed the cut at the Australian Open, but that can’t take away the fact he’s had a year in every respect. Had he continued on the PGA Tour, he would have been news. The fact he didn’t make him even more so.

Unlike many of his fellow jumpers, Smith was getting better by the month and was on his way to the number one slot pretty soon. It will be up to the OWGR, but that he may still do makes him very much news of 2022 and 2023.

2. Lydia Ko

It’s a rare thing to keep top form going for five, 10, 15 years, and more. Players launch out of the blocks, but many have also suffered long periods of, well, nothing.

The PGA Tour may have had its young winners in recent years (Spieth, Wolff, Morikawa and Kim), but the LPGA outdoes them by several handfuls, with players such as Brooke Henderson, Lexi Thompson, Paula Creamer, and Morgan Pressel winning events before they were 19 years of age and again suffering long periods when the game just goes.

Lydia Ko, back-to-back winner of the Canadian Open at 15 and 16 years of age, trumps all those names and, despite the total of 19 LPGA wins over 10 years, 2022 was definitely her best yet.

The 25-year-old Korean-born superstar has only won five times since a stellar 2016, but three came this year, winning on her second outing of the year — the Gainbridge LPGA — and at two of her last three outings at the BMW Ladies and prestigious Tour Championship (final round highlights here).

Throughout the 22 events of her season, Ko made every weekend, winning three times and recording nine further top-five finishes to win her first Player of the Year award since 2015. Top that with a return to world No. 1 in what might be the densest LPGA field of all time, and we have a newsmaker making the right type of news.

Ko continues to tinker with her game, recently opening up on the amicable split with Sean Foley, but she’s rarely been happier.

Due to marry her fiance Chung Jun in the off-season, Ko appears more relaxed than she ever has been, and having led the scoring average, strokes-gained-total and been in the top three for scrambling and putting, she may find herself in this column in 12 months time.

3. Ashleigh Buhai

When Ashleigh Buhai won the 2022 Women’s Open at Muirfield in August, she made history by becoming the first (modern-day) South African player to win the event since Alison Sheard in 1979, and only the second female major champion after Sally Little won two at either end of the 1980s.

A noted amateur, Buhai has taken her time winning tournaments, her second victory coming four years after the Catalonia Ladies Masters, whilst her win at her home Open came in 2018, seven years later.

None of those events were particularly close, with a winning margin of at least two, so as she opened up a five-shot lead (courtesy of a 65/64 blitz) going into Sunday, signs looked promising, as did her Open record — a tied-5th and 11th being her two best major finishes in 43 outings.

Three ahead with a handful of holes to play, including the gettable par-5 17th, the engraver was ready to start his job, until a disastrous treble-bogey on the 15th.

Opens are never meant to be easy and when the 33-year-old lost that substantial lead, she faced the prospect of a playoff against In-Gee Chun, a three-time major winner who just two months prior had won the Women’s PGA from two former major champions.

It looked a tough task for the pre-event 200/1 chance against one of the more fancied players, but in an epic battle that went to the fourth extra hole, the less-fancied player proved far the hardiest.

Both had chances to win the decider, and as they approached the 18th yet again, both looked fatigued.

In-Gee found her tee shot drift off the fairway into a bunker, meaning she had to chip out, hit a long hybrid shot and attempt a difficult par save, whilst her opponent’s approach looked to have found one of those golf lies in the back half of an island bunker to the right of the green, facing what appeared to be a much tougher par save.

With In-Gee 15 feet short of the pin, Buhai needed to get closer to the pin and put the onus on the Korean. Under the most extreme pressure, Buhai created a chip shot of beauty, landing perfectly on the green and rolling out to around two feet. In-Gee missed her putt, the South African couldn’t, announcing the victory as “life-changing.”

Not only was the exhausting effort worthy of being a news headline, but the antics of her husband, David, were also worthy of note. Usually caddying for Jeongeun Lee6, he’d clearly had a bit too much of the local brew and couldn’t quite hide either his nerves or delight as the play-off ended in victory for his better half. It would not be another wait for her next title, and just four months later, Buhai ended her year with a victory at the ISPS Handa Women’s Australian Open, coming from one behind another former major winner in Jiyai Shin, who missed a five-footer to tie. This time, Dave had to be a tad quieter — he was on the bag.

4. Tom Kim

In a year that was preoccupied with talk of how much money players were getting or needed, golf needed a lift.

There were the heroic social media stances taken by the likes of Max Homa and Joel Dahmen, both among many that provided a chuckle of three, but on the course, nobody made more of an impact than Joohyung Kim, for whom typists will forever be grateful is better known as Tom.

Through a convoluted qualifying path that included a third place at the Scottish Open, Kim was granted Special Temporary Membership to the PGA Tour and immediately secured his card with a seventh at the Rocket Mortgage Classic after a final round 63. All that after having to birdie his 36th hole to make the cut.

“It means everything,” he said after gaining his license for 2022/23. “Every day I’ve played golf, I’ve thought about playing on the PGA Tour. It was nothing else.”

Already the youngest player inside the OWGR top-50, a week later, the 20-year-old became the only winner of a PGA Tour event that had started their tournament with a quadruple bogey, eventually firing a final round 61 to earn a stunning five-shot victory.

The first two FedEx events didn’t quite match that standard, with a lowly effort at the BMW meaning he missed the Tour Championship.

However, in a mix of established stars, Kim shone out at the Presidents Cup.

Golf Digest tells the tale of the per-tournament press conference:

“When a reporter asked him if he had taken any inspiration from Y.E. Yang’s win over Tiger Woods at the 2009 PGA Championship, and whether that formula of taking down a juggernaut might have echoes in the International Team’s monumental task of beating the Americans.

“Kim took the air out of that narrative quickly—he said he was a Tiger fan growing up and didn’t want Yang to win. Later, he added that even as a seven-year-old, he was disappointed in Yang’s win because he wanted to be the first Korean to win a major.”

Kim may have gone 2-3-0 in the team event, but in winning a foursome (against Scottie and Sam Burns) and one fourball (versus Patrick Cantlay and Xander), he showed that golf can be fun!

Kim could not have started the 2022/23 wrap-around season any stronger, with a comfortable three-shot victory at the Shriners, easily holding off course specialist Cantlay, who simply tried too hard to catch the leader. In doing so, Kim became the first winner since Tiger to win two PGA events before the age of 21.

Subsequent efforts include a 25th at the Zozo, 11th at the CJ Cup and a year-ending fourth place in Japan before taking finishing 10th at the Hero World Challenge, where he co-led after the first round and ‘officially’ met his hero Tiger Woods.

Kim’s ascendancy to the top 15 in the world is no fluke.

He won the Asian Tour Order of Merit before immediately making an impact at the highest level, his approach stats are as good as anyone out there, he openly loves the game, and he’s nicknamed after children’s cartoon hero Thomas The Tank Engine.

In a year when many of the best-known golfers shed fans by the bucket load, Tom Kim is the perfect antidote.

5. Matt Fitzpatrick

Until this year, Matt Fitzpatrick had recorded only one top-10 in 23 attempts at a major.

Whilst the 28-year-old had won seven European Tour events, he had never won on the PGA Tour, with many observers, and Fitz himself, acknowledging his lack of length was an issue. Those runner-up finishes at Bay Hill at this year’s Wells Fargo were no surprise given his class, but there was something just missing.

And then it all came right.

PGA tour season over for this year. A season I could only dream of. So many positives to take into next year, time to make a plan on how I can get better and improve on this years results!! pic.twitter.com/zsxFeXCB6e

— Matt Fitzpatrick (@MattFitz94) August 30, 2022

Having worked with coach Mike Walker and biomechanistic Sasho Mackenzie, Fitz started to see results.

Working on a method known as The Stack, the figures tell it all, with Fitz’s average club head speed on the PGA Tour halfway through the 2022 season increasing by over five mph compared to 2019, and his ‘off-the-tee ranking improving to 10th, compared to 59th just three years ago.

The season had already seen the Englishman finish tied-14th at The Masters, T2 at Wells Fargo and T5 at the USPGA, so he was in as good a shape as ever when coming to the U.S Open at Brookline.

Starting alongside another tee-to-green superstar, Will Zalatoris, the two PGA maidens stood on the first tee, hoping to hold off a host of challengers, including the daunting trio of Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and world number one Scottie Scheffler.

Despite several putts just missing by millimetres and an eagle try at #8, Fitz stubbornly refused to go away, finding himself in the sole lead when Scheffler started unravelling just after the turn.

On the same hole that Scheffler had just three-putted – the 11th – Fitz watched Zalatoris drain one and then miss a two-putt par from 15 feet, giving his playing partner a two-shot lead. That’s huge at a major but thoughts turned to the fate of Mito Pereira at Southern Hills.

Fitz then knocked in a 60-footer monster on 13 and then watched the leader save par from 15 feet, whilst, at the 15th, he again holes for birdie whilst WillyZ records his second bogey in four holes.

Now chasing, Zalatoris made no mistake knocking in a short one at 16 and was now just one behind coming to the pressure holes, and it was set up nicely at 17, where both players made par. Down to the 72nd.

On the deciding hole, and one shot behind, Zalatoris crashed one down the fairway whilst, defending his narrow lead, Fitz pulled a three-wood into the left-hand island bunker.

There was very little room in front of the leader’s ball, and any mis-shot might have seen the ball hit the large tuft of grass, sending the ball anywhere. Another possibility was being short and facing a tough up-and-down from the bunker in front of the green.

Fitz and caddie Billy Foster did not mess around. In contrast to the lopper needing to tell his charge to ‘get on with it’, as he did at Augusta in April, Fitz took control and hit a shot equal to the much-replayed iron of Sandy Lyle’s famous bunker shot on the 72nd hole of the 1988 Masters.

Fitz second ended around 20 feet from the flag, a couple of feet ahead of his playing partner, and now the only other that could stop a play-off between either of the leaders and Scheffler, safe in the house at 5-under.

The leader cozied the ball to the hole, parred out and watched as Zalatoris, already twice a major runner-up, missed the birdie putt by an inch.

Not only had the Englishman finally got the PGA Tour monkey off his back, but he did it in the utmost style, ranking first in tee-to-green with an astonishing 16-plus strokes gained, as well as leading the around-the-green figures.

Fitz went on to make 16th at the Tour Championship, run up in Italy, and end his year looking as if the season had taken its toll, but still finishing 5th.

On the PGA Tour for 2021/2, Fitz ranked 10th off-the-tee, seventh in tee-to-green and around-the-green, 22nd in putting and second overall. On the DPWT, he ranked 21st for driving distance, an improvement of over 100 places from the previous season, and third for stroke average.

Fitz has always been there, but this time he has arrived. And that makes news in the golf world.

Notable mentions

Everyone will have their own view on the newsmakers of 2022.

Of course, having dominated golf news for much of the first half of the year, Greg Norman, LIV CEO, might be a choice. The mouthpiece of the Saudi-backed tour has got himself in the news with an awful lot of rhetoric and has twice been rumored to be on the verge of being replaced.

Then there is Phil Mickelson, who went from being the dominant force on the Champions Tour to hiding away for a couple of months. Having openly admitted his “obnoxious greed”, he became the most polarising figure in the game, accepting a huge amount of money from a group he had previously called “scary motherf**kers.”

On a good note, Rory McIlroy finally became the dominant player, finishing number one on both sides of the Atlantic. He won three events, should have won at least three more, and went home empty-handed from St. Andrews, an Open Championship that was there for him to win.

As a celebrated opponent of LIV, McIlroy became the mouthpiece for the PGA and DPWT players, although that wasn’t always welcomed by all.

Finally, as it was getting quiet, and few thought we would hear about LIV until February, the Augusta National committee released a statement saying they would welcome all the qualified players to the 2023 Masters. In attempting to “honor the tradition of bringing together a preeminent field of golfers,” they have attracted the attention of the 9/11 survivors’ group, in the same way, LIV Golf did in June.

Whatever your view, there is one thing for sure. Golf is making news.

Happy Holidays, WRXers!

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla

Published

6 days ago

May 13, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.

The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old.

Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades.

Valhalla Golf Club is a par-71 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event.

The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions.

Past Winners of the PGA Championship

2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Valhalla

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Shane Lowry (+1.25)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
Jordan Smith (+1.05)
Tom Hoge (+.96)
Corey Conners (+.94)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:

Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
Keith Mitchell (+.90)
Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
Ludvig Aberg (+.82)

Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs

Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:

Jon Rahm (+2.56)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
Shane Lowry (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses

Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
Xander Schauffele (+1.60)

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships

One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event.

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens

Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
Justin Rose (+0.93)
J.T. Poston (0.87)

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways

Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds:

Justin Thomas (+1.53)
Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
Rory McIlroy (+1.23)

2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%).

Brooks Koepka
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Shane Lowry
Alex Noren
Will Zalatoris
Cameron Young
Keith Mitchell
Hideki Matsuyama
Billy Horschel
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Adam Schenk
Chris Kirk
Sahith Theegala
Min Woo Lee
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas

2024 PGA Championship Picks

Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)

At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.

Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.

Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.

In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024.

Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)

Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.

At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.

Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.

Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.

Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)

There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.

Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.

Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.

Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.

Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)

I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.

Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.

Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.

Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 2

Published

1 week ago

May 9, 2024

Terry Koehler

In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.

At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.

It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.

And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.

I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.

But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.

If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.

To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.

There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.

Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.

The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.

First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.

And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”

So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

2 weeks ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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