It’s like being a parent. You know what will happen, but you still need to let the circumstances play out. Once the idea of rain coming into the picture for Saturday afternoon was established, posit after posit came out. Get out early and post a number was the most popular and logical one. No matter how well the leaders start, the coming home will be merciless was a less-common one, but no less accurate.

Shane Lowry made birdie at the 4th hole to reach eight-under par. At that point, he had a three-shot advantage over his playing companion. He would get no farther. A tugged tee ball at eight led to a double bogey, and five more bogeys came his way. The most gutting came at number 18, a hole that he had played in six shots through two rounds. You might think that 77 on day three of a major championship would be a death knell, but Lowry is just three shots behind the leader. He’ll have a legitimate shot on Sunday, as will 13 other golfers.

Fourteen golfers are within five shots of Billy Horschel, the third-round leader. He’s at four-under par, despite weathering the worst of the weather. At least one of those fourteen will post a 65 on Sunday. It may not be enough. The 2024 major tournament season will end on Sunday, and should feature high drama. With that in mind, let’s sumarize Saturday in, oh, five things that we learned. How does that sound?

An ace on the 17th for Si Woo Kim. pic.twitter.com/tPg2PKTm1x

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 20, 2024

1. No one went away

As I alluded in the intro, no one in contention at the start of the day has gone adrift. Seven-under par had the lead after 36 holes, and four-deep (also alluded) is the new standard. I’ve been conservative in suggesting that five shots out is the most to be overcome. Circumstances dictate that someone six or seven back, with the correct mergin of fate and execution, could hoist the Claret Jug come Sunday evening, even if he has to play from the opposite side of the ball.

A full swing with the club the wrong way round…

Lefty Bob MacIntyre somehow made par from here. pic.twitter.com/zaE5hbBoPA

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 20, 2024

2. Billy Ho says Yo!

Why not Billy Ho? Why not, indeed! Horschel is a fit, focused, and talented golfer. He grabbed four shots from par on the outward nine, turning in 32. He shed grit and gravel coming home, finding a way to manage the inward side in 37 shots. Horschel has never held the solo lead in a professional major championship on the eve of decision day, so he’ll sleep differently tonight. Ultimately, how he and Micah Fugitt (his caddy) come to termsn with the reckoning, will decide his fate in the tournament.

Billy Horschel with a brilliant shot from the bunker on the 14th.

He has that to save par and remain tied for the lead. pic.twitter.com/sCxqCO12Ig

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 20, 2024

3. Can Sugar Shane Lowry rebound?

2019 was a different set of circumstances for the 36-hole leader. He held a large lead through 54 holes, and he managed to claim a six-shot win over Tommy Fleetwood. Tonight, there might be some doubts. More likely, there will be frustration, followed by gratitude. Frustration at the shots that got away, most importantly the tee shot at Postage Stamp. That’s where the sweater began to unravel, as a visit to Coffin bunker led to his inglorious double bogey. Gratitude should follow, that he is but three in arrears, with a spot in the fifth-last game, paired with the affable Adam Scott. Look for Lowry to figure in the outcome.

Shane Lowry extends his lead to three. pic.twitter.com/uYbThhuaDP

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 20, 2024

4. This guy is due for a run

Justin Thomas has lit the front nine better than any other golfer this week. Wait, scratch that. He made five birdies heading away on both Thursday and Saturday. Friday was a different story, where he played the opening half as you or I would. What makes the difference? Who could possibly know. Will Justin Thomas make a run on Sunday afternoon? No, but Jason Day will. The Malbon Man will turn in six-under par 30. His problem is that he is eight shots back of Horschel, and has zero chance on Sunday. What his score will paint, however, is a picture of what might be, and that will serve to inspire those behind him.

Jason Day appears dressed for a mountain expedition at The Open ?? pic.twitter.com/8XY5iUiAUS

— Ways To Golf (@WaysToGolf) July 20, 2024

5. How do you pick just one?

You don’t. Sam Burns and Thriston Lawrence posted 65 on day three, to move to three-under par. Russell Henley wasn’t far behind on the day, posting 66 to also reach 210 after 54 holes. Justin Rose and Daniel Brown had 73s but, like Lowry, they are still in the running. Xander Schauffele, the first-time major champion at the 2024 PGA Championship, is at three-deep as well. Oh, and the Masters champion, he of the fancy footwork, is but two off the lead. This is as deep and talented a group of challengers as we’ve seen in more than a minute. I won’t pick a winner today (I made my choice yesterday) but I do promise you that you will see more than one person’s share of fun shots like this one.

Living on the edge.

Cameron Young’s well-executed second means he leaves the Postage Stamp unscathed. pic.twitter.com/B2z107eIye

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 20, 2024

36 holes are in the rearview mirror at Royal Troon, and the course that James Braid rebuilt in 1923 shows little interest in easing up on the field. A benign day one was followed by a windy second half to day two. Day three promises wind and rain, so by day four, we shall have no idea who will be around to battle for the Claret Jug. That’s what makes the Open Championship so enjoyable; it’s a well-written novel whose denouement is unpredictable until it reveals itself.

Royal Troon has a way of humbling the game’s great players. The threesome of Ludvig Aberg, Tom Kim, and Bryson DeChambeau posted +29 combined and all three players missed the cut. No other, high-profile trio struggled as much, althought a few of them dispatched two-thirds of their roster to the great beyond. I’ve combed the odds, read the tea leaves, and spoken with Melisandre, and can predict that Billy Horschel will hoist the Claret Jug on Sunday. With that certainty out of the way, let’s move along to five things that I culled from holes 19 to 36 of the 152nd Open Championship.

This is what it means. @Maxhoma with a birdie on the last to keep his Open dream alive.

Clutch. pic.twitter.com/ANbcn3iOIc

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 19, 2024

1. Down the road again

Down the road again
I just can’t believe I’m down the road again
The life I love is making cuts with my friends
So I’m so sad to be down the road again

Willie Nelson’s joy to be on the road again, is the golfer’s angst at missing a cut, especially in a major. This paragraph is never fun to write, as the dreams and hopes of half the competitors have been shredded and smashed. The cut line moved from +5 to +6 late in the day, thanks to the uptick of the Ayrshire zephyrs. A dozen players benefitted from the misfortunes of others, none quite like Max Homa above. Farewell to Tiger, Roars, Luddy, Captain Keegan, Fairway Jesus, Vik, Tony, and many more. We’ll carry on, but it won’t be the same. Let’s try to remember the good times.

Bryson finishes his front nine with a chip-in birdie to put him back inside the cut line. pic.twitter.com/MS7L513SiG

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 19, 2024

2. Daniel Brown will shower in ice water tomorrow

Brown’s playing partners for the past 48 hours were the intimidating Denwit David Boriboonsub and Matthew Dodd-Berry. Nothing scares a golfer like a hyphen, after all. Neither of Brown’s mates survived to the weekend. Brown, on the other hand, will tee off in the final game of day three, with none other than 2019 champion golfer of the year Shane Lowry as his accomplice.

It cannot be easy to play at a high level, when those in your group have the struggles. On Friday, Brown bent, but he did not break. He stood plus-two on the day when he drained a putt for birdie at the 10th, He followed that with another at the 16th. to get back to six under, but made a four at the short 17th to immediately return the collected shot.

Saturday will be a cauldron unlike any he has faced before. It’s part and parcel of elevating to a new tier of competitor, and you can bet that the tranquil Brown will be all-in on the venture.

“It’s a bit surreal”

Daniel Brown reflects on an incredible opening two days at Royal Troon as he heads into the weekend in the hunt for The 152nd Open.@MercedesBenz | #DriveToDrive pic.twitter.com/LLxvzn5PyQ

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 19, 2024

3. Shane Lowry owns 18

I’m not intimating that he doesn’t feel a certain affection for the other 17 holes of the club’s championship course. When you close a round with birdie, each of the first two days, the home hole lifts you up. Lowry has played the 447-yard closer to perfection over the opening rounds. Six brief strokes were the only ones necessary. If the Irish champion can keep up that pattern, no matter what happens the rest of the way round, he’ll be off to the practice range in the proper state of mind.

A birdie on the 18th to record a 69 and become the leader in the clubhouse. pic.twitter.com/6BqhWAmpEr

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 19, 2024

4. 3 under was the day’s best

Five golfers posted 68 on Friday. After 65 won the card race on Thursday, no one approached that number on day two. Four of those scorecards moved into the top ten and contention, while the fifth made the cut on the number.

It wasn’t a great day for scoring at Royal Troon, and Saturday afternoon promises to be even more selfish. The final five groups, if the weather moves in, will contend with conditions not known by the earlier games. If someone around two or three over par can produce a 65 early Saturday, he’ll find himself in the final three pairings for round four.

As for Justin Rose, Billy Horschel, Jason Day, and Patrick Cantlay, their hard work and day-two grit saw them to the day’s medal. Their reward is a much later tee time on Saturday, but a chance to position for Sunday’s shootout.

Biggest roar of the week so far.

A birdie on the 18th for Justin Rose.

What a round. pic.twitter.com/4qSnbLEISG

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 19, 2024

5. The amateurs

Fling your hats for the four non-professionals who made the cut this week. Leading the quartet’s way is Scotland’s eponymous representative, Callum Scott. After opening with 71, he posted 75 on day two to lead in the chase for the silver medal. On his heels at +5 is Denmark’s Jacob Skov Olesen, the reigning Amateur champion. Sneaking in on the cut line are Spain’s Luis Masaveu and Tommy Morrison from the USA.

If you’re after storylines, Olesen posted 18 pars in round two. Morrison finished birdie-par-par to reach the weekend. Scott made but one birdie on Friday, but it came at the 16th hole, when the cut line looked to be lower than it ended. As for Masaveu, if you want to watch raw human emotion, follow him when you can. As his tee ball to the Postage Stamp disappeared into the rightside pit of sand, the Iberian covered his face with his hands for a good ten to fifteen seconds. It was as if his dog had run away and his romantic interest had bid farewell in the same instant.

Here’s to a battle equal to the US Open at Pinehurst, when Neal Shipley held off Luke Clanton by two to capture the low amateur medal.

This is the week when grown men across the USA wake up as if it were a holiday, and gifts were under a tree. They set alarms for 3 a.m. and put the coffee maker on autopilot. They are useless by noon, but they don’t care. It is Open Championship week, and even though they might not know which of the royals is on deck for this year, it is time for crazy bounces and incredible caroms.

The Open rotation (from there did the term Open Rota devolve) consists of seven royals (St. George’s, St. Andrews, Portrush, Birkdale, Liverpool, Lytham, and this year’s venue, Troon) an honourable (Muirfield) and plain old Carnoustie. That’s nine links in total. It’s fairly easy for aficionados to mistake one for another, until they’ve reached their forties and have seen three to four playings over each. Royal Troon is known for its penchant of identifying one-win-only, major titleists. Of its nine previous Open championships, six of them were claimed by one-off guys. Hats off to Arthur Havers, who got the ball rolling with a one-shot win over Walter Hagen in 1923.

What will you see this week at Royal Troon? Seaside golf for six holes, followed by a highland plunge for the next portion, followed by a return to the lowlands for the concluding measure. The usual amount of Ulex (aka thick stuff that gets sprayed with pesticide anywhere else) and a bunch of shots that should go in, but end in bunkers, paired with others that find the hole after beginning far adrift.

Stephan Jaeger can’t hit it any better, holing out for an eagle on the 13th. pic.twitter.com/NJn3Ga8rpc

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 18, 2024

1. Manifest all you want

Rory McIlroy had more support across the globe than most. It didn’t help him solve the riddle of Royal Troon. Tiger Woods was issued a challenge by a multiple-times, major championship, runner-up. Any motivation in that tossed glove was lost in his 79. Bryson DeChambeau is a publicly humbler lad these days, with a second US Open trophy fresh on the mantel. He also wobbled and bobbled on day one.

Predictions are the fortune of the unwitting. Collisions of time, space, matter, and execution bring low scores on day one at a major championship. When it’s an Open championship, multiply that times five to ten. When we believe too fully, we lose our sense of this. When we predict publicly, we run the sizable risk of scrambled eggs on our faces. Cheer loudly for your favorites, but don’t predict success for a few extra likes or other SocMed bytes of approval. Look no further than Cameron Smith, 2022 champion golfer of the year. He lost to Tiger with 80 and is likely down the road.

Perhaps that was a bit rash. These fellows who fell victim to temperatures, err, scorecards in the high 70s, need a mid-60s round to reach the weekend. No doubt a +3 or +4 total will earn that extension. In order to gain a peek at the leaderboard, they need that same score, plus a lot of help from the winds and the rain. Buckle up, sip your morning java, and enjoy the uneven grounds of links golf.

Reminiscing.

Tiger with some bunker magic on the 16th. pic.twitter.com/qJjD7fEtSI

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 18, 2024

2. Who, who, at minus-two?

There’s a fun group of Really at 70. The gifted putter for whom I always predict impending success (Russell Henley) found two strokes below par, along with a qualifier who happens to own a US Open (Justin Rose) title, a couple of northerners (Nicolai Hojgaard and Alex Noren) and two from the Commonwealth (Canada’s Mackenzie Hughes and England’s Joe Dean.) None of them gave us pause in the run-up to this tournament, and none is likely to be around come Sunday.

None of the quintet made more than five birdies on the day. Only Justin Rose played without a knock from Old Bogey. Making predictions about their odds for success is a fool’s errand, so I’ll say this: Rose has experience in these things. Hojgaard is extremely talented. Hughes ended the Canada curse at that nation’s Open championship in 2023. Noren plays one shot (hard cut) and plays it well. Dean has seven letters in his name. Good luck, lads! We’re pulling for each of you.

Justin Rose to the occasion.@JustinRose99 goes bogey free on Thursday at @RoyalTroonGC. pic.twitter.com/bqkZRanCUQ

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 18, 2024

3. USA PGA Champions in the hunt

I purposely left Xander Schauffele (also at -2) out of point number two. Quintet worked better than sextet, and it also gave Justin Thomas a chum in this segment. Schauffele removed the unwanted and heavy mantle of great player without a major at Valhalla in May. Now he joins Justin Thomas in the company of I have a PGA and I want more. I don’t have statistics to back up this claim, but I wonder if any major beyond the US PGA begets only US PGA winners. So many one-off major champions claimed the US PGA over the decades.

Schauffele played measured golf on day one, with just one bogey against his efforts. Thomas was the antithesis. He posted seven birdies on the day, but gave four shots back. Schauffele truly fits in point number two, as we have no evidence that he will do much beyond consistent play. Thomas is the fellow we want to see. We want to see a go-for-broke approach to this tournament. Fire intelligently at opportunistic flags, and amass birdies as you go. It may not work out for the Kentucky lad, but it’s the only way he knows to win.

We know what Thomas will do when he hits a bad patch. He went double-single at 12 and 13 on Thursday, but came home in minus-two. That counts for something.

Justin Thomas chips in for birdie.

Follow his progress on https://t.co/Y0Ljiq6Hze pic.twitter.com/Ov2s93YsLr

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 18, 2024

4. Shane Lowry needs a bookend

Speaking of manifesting, remember that 2021 Open Championship? It was the one that followed on the heels of Royal St. George’s, which was canceled, but not in that manner. RSG was canceled thanks to the pandemic. The links golf world was desperate for a return to normalcy in 2021, and it manifested all its love for area lad Rory McIlroy. Roars promptly drove OOB on his first tee ball and missed the cut. Stepping in for Northern Ireland was a man from the south, Shane Lowry. He played magnificent golf over the great links, and claimed his first major title. Seems at odds with what I wrote about one-off major winners, right? Short memory.

Lowry held the lead for just a brief while on Friday. He closed with a stellar birdie at the last, to cap a flawless 66. His five birdies were spread over a short, a long, and three middle-length holes. He is a man at home on Open courses, and he seems bent on restating his importance to the game. I recently referenced him as part of the Old Guard of Euro Ryder Cup, and received a healthy dose of vitriol in return. A win for Lowry at Troon will mark his return to import, and a first individual title since September of 2022.

A 66 on Thursday for Shane Lowry.

The Irishman leads The 152nd Open. pic.twitter.com/CdcUTUcAKC

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 18, 2024

5. Daniel Brown is upside down

Remember when Adam Hadwin got tackled by security at the 2023 Canadian Open? Dan Brown looks like that guy. He’s not the novelist who writes about conspiracy and intrigue in the Vatican, nor is he the quarterback who has led the NY football Giants to mediocrity. He’s a hoodie-wearing, millenial beard-sporting, bro of a guy. Two decades ago, he’d have been mistaken for a delivery person, or a new hire on the grounds crew. How times change!

Brown could not have played a much more, balanced, round on Thursday. Two birdies in his first five, followed by two more at the turn, concluded by two at the close. Like Lowry, zero bogeys. What we don’t know is how he will handle adversity. That’s the problem with clean cards. When the bogey man rises from its murky depths, some golfers chest up, while others fade away. Brown captured his only DP World Tour title last August, in Northern Ireland. He’s in a different test tube rack this week and will show us a great deal about fortitude.

The clubhouse leader: Daniel Brown.

With a round of 65, he leads The 152nd Open. pic.twitter.com/7ZaHAXQp1e

— The Open (@TheOpen) July 18, 2024