Tour News
7 bad bets at the 2015 RSM Classic
The PGA Tour’s 2015 portion of the 2015-2016 wrap-around season concludes this week at The RSM Classic in Sea Island, Georgia, at the Sea Island Resort, as does your opportunity to earn some holiday spending cash on DraftKings.
In this week’s fantasy contest, $110,000 is up for grabs with $10,000 going to the last person standing. A few of the best professional golfers on the PGA Tour are traveling to the Golden Isles of Georgia to finish out 2015 in style; do not sleep on your chance to pick, play, and win, especially since I am here to help by highlighting bad bets — overvalued players teeing it up to avoid below.
The Courses
This year, the RSM Classic takes places at the Plantation and Seaside courses at the Sea Island Resort. The Seaside Course is a links venue encompassing majestic ocean vistas designed in the tradition of St. Andrews in Scotland. It was originally designed in 1929 by Harry S. Colt and Charles Alison, was later updated in 1999 by Tom Fazio, and plays to a tournament par of 70 at almost 6,900 yards. The Plantation Course was designed by Walter Travis, weaves its way through marsh and forest, and was renovated in 1998 by Rees Jones. It plays to a tournament par of 72 and is more than 7,000 yards in length.
Due to the addition of the Plantation Course at this year’s tournament, scores could vary, but last year’s winner Robert Streb (who beat Will Mackenzie and Brendan de Jonge in a playoff) posted 266. A 264 in 2012 by Tommy Gainey was the lowest score ever to win this event, while 266 by Streb, Chris Kirk (2014), and Heath Slocum (2010) were the highest.
Here are my 7 bad bets this week at The RSM Classic.
Eric Axley ($5,600)
2014-2015 PGA Tour season
- All-Around Ranking: 160th (993)
- Ball-Striking: 181st (357)
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: T-179th (33.33%)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 182nd (-1.275)
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 73rd (0.123)
- 2014 Finish at The RSM Classic: T-22nd
Axley has 178 career PGA Tour starts, more than $3 million in career earnings, and a win at the 2006 Valero Texas Open. Last season was a struggle, however, as Axley made only seven cuts in 21 total events with just two top-25 finishes. Unfortunately, the latter of those top-25 finishes came way back in March 2015 at the Puerto Rico Open. Admittedly, Axley’s saving grace this week at Sea Island may be that he posted his other top-25 at this same event last year.
In his only start this season, Axley missed the cut at the Sanderson Farms Championship shooting 68-76. Without significant improvement in ball striking, there is little chance of Axley contending this week even with strong numbers on the putting greens. Consider alternatives that realistically can post a top-20 at The RSM Classic.
Blayne Barber ($5,700)
2014-2015 PGA Tour season
- All-Around Ranking: T-81st (706)
- Ball-Striking: 84th (165)
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 109th (41.32%)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 149th (-0.410)
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 34th (0.312)
- 2014 Finish at The RSM Classic: Missed cut
Maybe best known for disqualifying himself from the first stage of PGA Tour Q-School in 2012, Barber is certainly capable of competing at the highest levels of professional golf. Barber posted five top-25 finishes in the 2014-2015 PGA Tour season. In that same season, Barber also missed 14 cuts in 26 events and in his last 17 PGA Tour events, he failed to make the cut in 13, despite posting two top-10s in that same span.
The only cut made so far this wrap-around season by Barber came at the Sanderson Farms Championship, which resulted in a T-39th. In short, Barber certainly has the potential, but his current play suggests looking for comparable players relative to salary cap cost with stronger play in recent weeks, as this is the sixth event of the new PGA Tour season.
Alex Prugh ($5,800)
2014-2015 PGA Tour season
- All-Around Ranking: 102nd (772)
- Ball-Striking: T-11th (40)
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 32nd (46.46%)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 103rd (-0.013)
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 123rd (-0.059)
- 2014 Finish at The RSM Classic: Missed cut
Prugh posted back-to-back top-10 finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open and the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am back in February 2015. During the remainder of the 2014-2015 season, however, he posted just one other top-25, which came at the Barbasol Championship (opposite The Open Championship). Further, in 103 starts overall on the PGA Tour, Prugh has missed 56 cuts (54.37% of all events played), while posting only six top-10 finishes.
In two events this wrap-around season, Prugh collected an MDF (made cut, did not finish) at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open and missed the cut at the Sanderson Farms Championship. With a below average putter and average statistics with respect to Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Prugh is not a player to add to your roster no matter how cheap he is.
Billy Hurley III ($5,900)
2014-2015 PGA Tour season
- All-Around Ranking: 161st (995)
- Ball-Striking: 142nd (267)
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 184th (29.20%)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 146th (-0.402)
- Strokes Gained: Putting Green: T-36th (0.302)
- 2014 Finish at The RSM Classic: Did not play
There is little doubt that Hurley was affected by the events of late last summer. He missed 14 cuts in 28 events last year and only posted five top-25 finishes, the last of which came at the FedEx St. Jude Classic in June.
Despite a documented ability to manage PGA Tour greens in 2014-2015, he finished last among 184 players in Par 5 Birdie or Better leaders, making a birdie or better less than one-third of the time. A below average tee-to-green game relative to his peers, Hurley’s putting over the past season did little to offset his long game struggles. This season Hurley posted a T-63rd in his only event, the Sanderson Farms Championship. All things considered, Hurley is best left off your roster until his game turns around, especially off the tee.
Heath Slocum ($6,300)
2014-2015 PGA Tour season
- All-Around Ranking: 166th (1,041)
- Ball-Striking: 146th (274)
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 108th (41.38%)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 180th (-1.159)
- Strokes Gained: Putting: T-171st (-0.595)
- 2014 Finish at The RSM Classic: Missed cut
Slocum is a former winner of the RSM Classic (which was incidentally his last of four PGA Tour victories), having won the inaugural event in 2010 by one stroke over Bill Haas. While good memories undoubtedly count for something, it is impossible to overlook that Slocum recently failed to qualify for the final stage at Web.com Tour Q-School. As a result, Slocum is seemingly compelled, if not technically forced, to rely on his status as past champion on the PGA Tour to gain starts this upcoming season.
In 2014-2015, Slocum missed 16 cuts in 22 events and posted just one top-25 finish, which came in November 2014 at the no cut CIMB Classic. Dating back to that event, in his last 18 PGA Tour starts after Malaysia, Slocum missed 13 cuts with his best finish in that stretch coming the very next week at the 2014 Sanderson Farms Championship in the form of T-58th. The over-arching point is that it’s not worth the risk to add Slocum to your roster this week as a past champion. Save your cash and splurge on someone with the potential to post a top-20.
Finally, as a last call (of sorts) for the wrap-around season, keep in mind, some of those players mentioned in previous articles (namely, Robert Allenby, Jonas Blixt, Derek Ernst, Matt Every, and Chesson Hadley), as little has occurred, if anything, to change the underlying reasons they were highlighted earlier in the 2015-2016 season.
Lucas Glover ($7,200)
2014-2015 PGA Tour season
- All-Around Ranking: T-83rd (714)
- Ball-Striking: 6th (21)
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 71st (43.20%)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 11th (1.092)
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 184th (-1.352)
- 2014 Finish at The RSM Classic: MDF
Glover is a three-time PGA Tour winner with a resume that includes the 2009 U.S. Open Championship at Bethpage Black. In winning that tournament, Glover beat Phil Mickelson, David Duval, Tiger Woods, Hunter Mahan, Rory McIlroy, and Sergio Garcia, all of which finished in the top-10. Over the course of 26 events last season, Glover missed 11 cuts, but posted six top-25s. He also posted a T-17th at the opening event of the wrap-around season.
Further, Glover is statistically one of best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour and his ability from tee to green seems undeniable. The problem for Glover is that once he steps on the putting green, he becomes (again based on last season’s statistics) the worst putter on the PGA Tour. When those struggles are combined with younger players, and even some veterans that wield the putter like a magic wand, the prospects for a top-10 seem miniscule. Keep in mind, Glover did not post a top-10 in 2014-2015 on the PGA Tour.
Stewart Cink ($7,300)
2014-2015 PGA Tour season
- All-Around Ranking: 91st (739)
- Ball-Striking: 66th (135)
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 76th (43.04%)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 56th (0.284)
- Strokes Gained: Putting: 81st (0.097)
- 2014 Finish at The RSM Classic: T-32nd
Cink is a former major champion (2009 The Open Championship, which was incidentally his last PGA Tour win), six-time PGA Tour winner, and has collected almost $34 million in career PGA Tour earnings. In 23 total events last season, Cink only posted one top-10 and missed eight cuts. To date this wrap-around season, Cink has just one top-20 in three events, which he posted at the no-cut CIMB Classic in Malaysia.
Last year at the RSM Classic, Cink notably posted a T-32nd, despite firing a final round 73 after shooting 63 the day before. Historically, Cink has the pedigree and experience to win, but nothing suggests that will be the case this week. Last week in Mexico, Cink failed to make the cut after shooting 76-69. His recent play, coupled with a six-year winless drought means add someone else to this week’s roster.
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General Albums
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Dennis Corley
Nov 19, 2015 at 9:54 pm
I don’t appreciate using the premise of the article to be plain old mean and unkind. Those guys are trying to make a living etc. Focus on good bets. An article about the game of golf should aspire to uphold the game’s ideals.
GambleGamble
Nov 18, 2015 at 2:35 pm
Try to pick big name guys that you think are bad picks and remember you could be wrong 50%+ of the time… just look at Matthew Berry on ESPN.
GambleGamble
Nov 18, 2015 at 2:31 pm
Yes, this is a bad format for an article unless you mention people at the $7500+ salary that are bad picks. I could have a 5 year old pick randomly from the lower salary players in draftkings and have equal success at who is a bad pick.
fitz
Nov 18, 2015 at 12:29 pm
These articles are stupid. Why write about who you pick to win instead of writing about guys that we all know won’t contend?