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The 7 most overvalued players at the 2015 OHL Classic at Mayakoba

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The PGA Tour’s 2015-2016 wrap-around season continues this week with a trip to Mexico at the 2015 OHL Classic at Mayakoba in Playa Del Carmen, and so does the opportunity to win some holiday cash on DraftKings.

In this week’s fantasy contest, $125,000 is in the pot with $10,000 going to the winner. Some of the best professional golfers on the PGA Tour are headed to the Yucatan Peninsula; do not miss out on your chance to pick, play, and win, especially since I am here to help by highlighting those overvalued players to avoid below.

Enter the $125K contest here!

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El Camaleon Golf Club is located at the Mayakoba resort, plays to a tournament par of 71, almost 7,000 yards in length, and was designed by World Golf Hall of Fame member, Greg Norman. The course is considered unique in its design, as it traverses three distinct landscapes, i.e., tropical jungle, dense mangroves, and oceanfront stretches of sand with certain holes bisected by massive limestone canals.

Last year’s winner, Charley Hoffman, posted a winning score of 17-under par to defeat Shawn Stefani by a single stroke. As the second-to-last event of the wraparound season, a variety of PGA Tour players, young and experienced, will be trying to get a head start on the season overall at this event.

Here are my 7 overvalued players to avoid in your fantasy lineup this week.

Charlie Beljan ($5,500)

2014-2015 PGA Tour season

  • All-Around Ranking: 136th (875)
  • Ball-Striking: 55th (123)
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 42nd (45.18%)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 130th (-0.223)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 182nd (-0.800)
  • 2014 Finish at OHL Classic at Mayakoba: Withdrew

Famously known for winning the 2012 Children’s Miracle Network Hospitals Classic after overcoming a second-round panic attack, Beljan has played in 80 PGA Tour events since and missed 45 cuts, while posting only 11 top-25s. Last season, Beljan was literally one of the worst putters on the PGA Tour (182nd out of 184 players) as measured by Strokes Gained: Putting.

In 2014-2015, Beljan missed 15 cuts in 27 events, withdrew from one event, and posted just three top-25 finishes. His last top-25 finish came in June 2015 at the U.S. Open at Chambers Bay. This season has not started much better with Beljan’s best finish in three events coming at the Frys.com Open in the form of a T-74th, which was followed by a missed cut in Las Vegas, and W/D at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Consider alternatives to Beljan that offer upside and a possible return on your investment.

Robert Allenby ($5,600)

RobertAllenby

2014-2015 PGA Tour season

  • All-Around Ranking: 183rd (1,180)
  • Ball-Striking: 119th (230)
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 171st (35.56%)
  • Strokes Gained:  Tee-to-Green: 132nd (-0.248)
  • Strokes Gained:  Putting: 179th (-0.755)
  • 2014 Finish at OHL Classic at Mayakoba: Missed cut

Allenby is a four-time winner on the PGA Tour, but has failed to land in the winner’s circle since 2001. Last season, in 25 total events, he posted only one top-10 (over a year ago), missed 14 cuts, withdrew three times, and fired his own caddie mid-round in Canada. Allenby’s trip to the Sony Open in Hawaii and adventures in Honolulu remain the year’s most bizarre golf story.

Notwithstanding Allenby’s personal travails, it was a year to be forgotten on the golf course as well; he was 179th out of 184 total PGA Tour players in Strokes Gained:  Putting. Those difficulties, however, appear to have carried over into the 2015-2016 season as Allenby has already missed three out of three cuts at the Frys.com Open, Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, and Sanderson Farms Championship. Spend your cash wisely elsewhere this week by passing on Allenby.

Bo Van Pelt ($5,900)

2014-2015 PGA Tour season

  • All-Around Ranking: 158th (982)
  • Ball-Striking: 97th (189)
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 141st (39.00%)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 145th (-0.397)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 76th (0.118)
  • 2014 Finish at OHL Classic at Mayakoba: Missed cut

Van Pelt played in 79 events in 2010 through 2012 on the PGA Tour and in that stretch posted 43 top-25 finishes, while only missing 15 cuts. In the three seasons since Van Pelt has posted just 18 top-25 finishes in 75 events and missed 29 cuts. On the basis of statistics alone, Van Pelt’s struggles over the past three seasons appear to exist across the board, but highlighted by poor ball-striking and an average putter.

Coupled with his progressively deteriorating play, Van Pelt’s missed cut at the OHL Classic at Mayakoba last year along with a missed cut at the 2015 Sanderson Farms Championship (his only event to date in this wraparound season), suggest there are better bets this week, regardless of price. Historically, there was a time when Van Pelt was almost a guaranteed top-25 and worthwhile component in almost any fantasy golf lineup. That is not the case, however, at this moment in 2015.

Derek Ernst ($6,400)

DerekErnst

2014-2015 PGA Tour season

  • All-Around Ranking: 146th (942)
  • Ball-Striking: T-43rd (100)
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 77th (42.99%)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 117th (-0.95)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 166th (-0.510)
  • 2014 Finish at OHL Classic at Mayakoba: Did not play

Ernst won the 2013 Wells Fargo Championship in a playoff over David Lynn. That win represents Ernst’s only top-10 finish in 78 total events on the PGA Tour. In that same span of 78 events, Ernst has failed to make the cut 46 times or 58.97 precent of the time. Ernst did finish T-20th at the 2015 Sanderson Farms Championship, however, and T-18th at the Wyndham Championship in early September, which was his final event of the 2014-2015 season.

His struggles with the putter over the course of last season, coupled with middle of the road Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green numbers make Ernst a tough sell. Plus, statistically speaking he appears due for, or just as likely to suffer another missed cut. If you decide to take a risk on Ernst, then temper your expectations by hoping he makes it to the weekend.

Jonas Blixt ($6,400)

2014-2015 PGA Tour season

  • All-Around Ranking: 92nd (742)
  • Ball-Striking: T-169th (321)
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 51st (44.40%)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 171st (-0.695)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: T-74th (0.119)
  • 2014 Finish at OHL Classic at Mayakoba: Did not play

Blixt is a two-time PGA Tour winner, having won the 2013 The Greenbrier Classic and 2012 Frys.com Open. Last season was seemingly a struggle for Blixt, who played in 26 events and posted six top-25s, but missed 14 cuts and finished 123rd in the FedEx Cup rankings. His only top-10 finish was at the 2015 Wyndham Championship, where Blixt fired a third-round 62. A lone bright spot in an otherwise difficult season.

Without a monumental turnaround in his play from tee-to-green, Blixt inevitably will continue to struggle, especially without considerable success on the putting greens. So far this wrap-around season, Blixt has played three times and missed two cuts, while posting a T-48th at the Frys.com Open (and 145 over the weekend in that event). Any expectation that Blixt will be a solid contributor to your lineup would be inconsistent with his recent play. Take a deep breath before adding him to your lineup for Mexico.

Jason Kokrak ($7,900)

JasonKokrak

2014-2015 PGA Tour season

  • All-Around Ranking: 69th (666)
  • Ball-Striking: T-59th (129)
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 88th (48.91%)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 63rd (0.262)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 111th (-0.15)
  • 2014 Finish at OHL Classic at Mayakoba: T-16th

Kokrak represents the biggest gamble on this list, given his closing 64 to post a backdoor top-12 at the 2015 Sanderson Farms Championship and top-20 finish at this same event in Mexico last year. Prior to Sanderson Farms in this wrap-around season, Kokrak had been disqualified at the Frys.com Open and finished T-38th at the Shriners Hospitals for Childrens Open in Las Vegas.

Last season, Kokrak admittedly collected eight top-25 finishes of which two were also top-10s, but missed 11 cuts in 28 events. Notably, both top-10 finishes were posted back in March 2015, almost eight months ago. Kokrak found his way onto this list before the completion of Sanderson Farms, but kept his place in light of that finish. Why? Because his value likely increased as a result, despite play this calendar year that generally fails to justify the same.

Matt Kuchar ($11,700)

2014-2015 PGA Tour season

  • All-Around Ranking: 9th (339)
  • Ball-Striking: 86th (169)
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders: 30th (46.98%)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 22nd (0.804)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting: 33rd (0.319)
  • 2014 Finish at OHL Classic at Mayakoba: Did not play

Kuchar’s entry on this week’s list of overvalued players is not predicated on his: statistics from last year; Official World Golf Ranking of 16th; career PGA Tour earnings (almost $34 million); or even his most recent play, which includes victories at the Fiji International and Bridgestone America’s Golf Cup (with partner Justin Hueber). And despite the fact that Kuchar will inevitably be a popular choice amongst other fantasy sources, his cost remains prohibitive because of Kuchar’s inability to close the door and win PGA Tour events with consistency.

Admittedly, he is a seven-time PGA Tour winner, but with an early trend of young players ready to enter the winner’s circle in 2015-2016, Kuchar’s steep investment, without total belief in his ability to finish, will be not be money well spent. Carefully consider alternatives such as Patrick Rodgers, Patton Kizzire, or Russell Knox, hot off his win at the HSBC Champions in Shanghai.

Don’t forget to enter the $125K contest here!

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