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What Score Makes You Happy?

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Final scores are arbitrary markers of success and failure. It’s almost random how the same numbers can add up to make one player happy and another upset. When a 14-handicap shoots a 79, it’s time to celebrate; when a four-handicap shoots 79, don’t ask him how he played.

A golfer can hit the ball well, but with a few missed putts or a few bad bounces what looked like a promising round can end with a score that doesn’t speak to the player’s ability. Or, if it did all come together and the golfer had one of his rounds of the year, you know what? Any player will tell you that score could have been — should have been — one or two strokes lower.

So, what score makes you feel happy? Dennis, a five-handicap with a solid swing and good touch around the greens, told me his number is 75.

[quote_box_center]“Anything below that and either I didn’t screw anything up much, or I played well enough to recover from my bad holes.”[/quote_box_center]

He said this after a mediocre-for-him 38 on the front nine at Victoria. On his way to the back nine he added, “Anything over 80 and I just write it off as one of those 10 rounds that doesn’t count toward my index.”

“I’m a 26-handicap,” Rhonelle from Calgary told me at Desert Willow. “Last Thursday I shot a 92. That’s a great score for me and I beat my friend who’s a 20-handicap. To get a good score and to win a close competition makes it doubly enjoyable.”

“Anything in the 70s,” said Marty, a high single digit with an unorthodox grip and swing. “I’ve played about 2,000 rounds of golf in the last 30 years and I’ve been under 80 I believe 473 times.” I looked to see if there was a calculator hanging next to the towel on his bag or if his caddy was an auditor with PricewaterhouseCoopers. “I can’t wait until I get to 500 sub-80s,” he said, like he thought that would bring a sure ticket to some personal Hall of Fame induction ceremony somewhere.

“When I break 90, I make everyone buy me beers,” Lenny said. Once he was an amateur boxer; he doesn’t overpower the course anymore though he says he is still capable of a big roundhouse hook.

“I don’t keep score,” Steven told me, and I figured that meant he didn’t want to count that high. “He’s good,” his buddy Jordan said at Malibu CC, “he just doesn’t like to get caught up in the numbers thing… he just likes to hit the shots.” I bowed toward him, thinking he’s either lying or I’m in the presence of a Zen master.

“I want to have a lower score on the back nine than on the front nine,” Alex told me on the 12th hole at Green Tree. His brother Jessie said maybe then he should quit after the 16th hole.

Steven said he likes to play courses that are par 71 or even par 70. “When you tell someone you shot an 82, they don’t ask you what par was on the course,” he explained.

“I’m an eight-handicap,” Terry said. “But I can shoot anywhere from 75 to 90 in any one round.”

“Yep,” his friend Freddy said, “he’s Mr. Consistent. But if you catch him on the right day, you can win some money from him.”

“So, what score makes you happy?” I asked again.

“If it’s a tournament, I want to be par or under, net. If it’s just a round with these guys, as long as I beat them I don’t care what I shoot. If I’m playing by myself, it’s all just practice and it doesn’t matter.”

Brian, a three-handicap, said, “I like to be around par or in the low 70s, but if I don’t, you know what? Nobody got hurt, nobody died. It’s just golf.” It must be easy to be philosophical when you’re a three, I think.

As for me, my handicap has gone up along with my age. Scores that used to be just a good number are now triumphs remembered for months. And the bad numbers are as easily forgotten as what I had for breakfast a week ago Friday.

My 89-year-old father-in-law still plays golf at his club on Long Island at least twice a week. He won some club tournaments when he was younger but now he says, “I don’t take myself seriously anymore, I just want to laugh and enjoy myself.” But the juices still flow. He says when he can play a par-4 with a drive in the fairway and an approach that gets him somewhere near the putting surface “so I can just run a 7-iron onto the green and putt for par,” then he’s happy. And, he adds, “I’m still happy even if I don’t make the par putt.”

What score makes you happy? Tell us in the comments section below. And check out Tom Hill’s humorous golf book, A Perfect Lie – The Hole Truth at 7-ironpress.com – use the coupon code GOLFWRX for free shipping of the paperback.

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Tom Hill is a 9.7 handicap, author and former radio reporter. Hill is the author of the recently released fiction novel, A Perfect Lie – The Hole Truth, a humorous golf saga of one player’s unexpected attempt to shoot a score he never before thought possible. Kirkus Reviews raved about A Perfect Lie, (It) “has the immediacy of a memoir…it’s no gimme but Hill nails it square.” (kirkusreviews.com). A Perfect Lie is available as an ebook or paperback through 7-ironpress.com and the first three chapters are available online to sample. Hill is a dedicated golfer who has played more than 2,000 rounds in the past 30 years and had a one-time personal best handicap of 5.5. As a freelance radio reporter, Hill covered more than 60 PGA and LPGA tournaments working for CBS Radio, ABC Radio, AP Audio, The Mutual Broadcasting System and individual radio stations around the country. “Few knew my name and no one saw my face,” he says, “but millions heard my voice.” Hill is the father of three sons and lives with his wife, Arava Talve, in southern California where he chases after a little white ball as often as he can.

37 Comments

37 Comments

  1. Bob

    Jul 22, 2015 at 2:19 am

    I play 4 times a week. Can’t drive. hit irons, pitch, chip or put. Handicap , if I kept a score would be above 36 hence I do not keep score. I ,however play fast and enjoy the game.

  2. Ron

    May 17, 2015 at 1:03 pm

    Great question! Golf is interesting partly because successive days on the same course can be so different. Whatever the level, golfers who play fairly often tend to score fifteen of the holes more-or-less the same – that is to say, the aggregate score will be comparable (but not the scores on the individual holes). Whether its a great round or a horrible one depends on what happened on the other three.

    For me (at 75 years old with an index of about 3), I’ll typically have 5 or 6 bogies, so a good or bad round depends on whether I birdie a couple of the others or bogie (or worse) the remaining three. So the score often comes down to two or three shots – either hit better or worse than on the rest of the round. Yesterday, my three bogies and two birdies made a great round. Had I bogeyed instead of birdied on those two, it would have just been so-so. Shooting my age, I guess, is always a target – but as my son so graciously reminds me, that is getting easier since I keep getting older!

    My happiness shouldn’t depend on any of that! After all, I’m still getting to play as much as I want!

  3. Big D

    May 8, 2015 at 3:52 am

    Having recently become a senior (50 years), I am at the point where I am just happy to be out on the course playing. I went through a period where my handicap was scratch or better for 15+ years but now play off a 3.8. Any time I can shoot under 75, I am thrilled. After a serious injury incurred hitting a tree root and going through 6 surgeries to try and resolve the issues, I just love playing whether that is shooting 70 or shooting 80. That being said, I am happier shooting 70 and losing than shooting 80 and winning.

  4. Mat

    May 2, 2015 at 3:52 pm

    I don’t care what the number is as long as my handicap goes down even a tenth. I’m a 17 these days, thus, roughly breaking 90 is a happy day.

  5. alan

    Apr 30, 2015 at 9:46 pm

    anything in the 70’s makes me happy. im a 7+ index so i dont get there as often as id like too but conditions play a huge part in my personal par which varies every time on get on the course.

  6. Progolfer

    Apr 27, 2015 at 1:28 am

    As my name indicates, I play for a living. My career low is 60 (lipped-out for 59), and that day I was so in the moment that it didn’t matter what I shot. That’s how you break barriers and play your best– forget about score and get absorbed in the game.

    I got a great tip from Eddie Merrins once. He said, “No matter how well you’re playing, there will always be somebody out there playing better than you are. Don’t ever protect your score.” Words of wisdom.

  7. JohnnyB

    Apr 26, 2015 at 3:48 pm

    Its easy, par or better. I will never forget the first time I broke par on 18 holes. It was one of the most satisfying days of my entire life.

  8. Matto

    Apr 25, 2015 at 5:39 pm

    About 6-7 years ago, after 25yrs of golf, I threw it all in, sold my clubs, cancelled my course membership and said F this game.
    I was taking it so seriously that it made me miserable, 84 was my best ever score.
    I didn’t play for 2yrs. Then I met some new friends on a job who were new to the game and I took it up again, promising myself not to revert to my old ways…and I never have. Within 6mths I had a 79.
    My number is 82-86, I’m a 10.8.
    My goal every round is to be the happiest guy in my group.

  9. Double Mocha Man

    Apr 24, 2015 at 8:06 pm

    If I shoot 2 over or better I am happy. So sad since I used to be ecstatic when I broke 80. When I’m very near par, or under, I will stop at Kentucky Fried Chicken on the way home and treat myself.

  10. ooffa

    Apr 24, 2015 at 4:31 pm

    I strive to shoot one shot better then the competition and collect the money without raising my handicap. If the best number is 80 then 79 takes the money why shoot 74 if you don’t have to. If your winning by a few dump one in the water or three put a few of the closing holes. Barely winning in the key to the bank.

    • Taylor

      Apr 24, 2015 at 8:25 pm

      So true. I keep my handicap so I can hopefully one day play in the state amateur, and to get strokes against my buddies. If I have the low score for the day I’m happy, typically the low score is high 70’s or low 80s. We typically play 73 rated courses, so thats a pretty good day.

  11. other paul

    Apr 24, 2015 at 1:49 pm

    I am happy when I hit great shots. No score will ever satisfy. Maybe 18 under par will satisfy. Not that I will ever know.

  12. RobG

    Apr 24, 2015 at 12:31 pm

    I only play golf 5 or 6 times per year. I’m always looking to shoot in the high 70’s but my game is too rusty and I usually end up in the mid 80’s. 84-85 I’m happy, 82-83 I’m content, 80-81 I’m thrilled. They only time I get really frustrated with my score is when I shoot 84-86 and I go back and add up my wasted shots – OB tee balls, balls left in bunkers, and missed short(ish) putts – and they add up to 8 or 10 strokes.

  13. Alex

    Apr 24, 2015 at 10:33 am

    I don’t really have a number. It’s more about what happened during the round. I can be happy with an 85 if I did my best and caught a few bad breaks. I can be disappointed in a 76 if I had some stupid mishits.

    It’s not the best way to think about it. A good-looking 80 and a bad-looking 80 are both 80s, but it’s hard for me to remember that I’m playing golf, not golf swing, sometimes.

  14. Jay

    Apr 24, 2015 at 9:34 am

    Division 1 hockey player who recently walked on my college’s varsity golf team. Its fun to play with the top guys on the squad because they are scratch golfers and as a 3 handicap who keeps up with them from time to time is a great feeling no matter what the number is.

  15. Blake

    Apr 24, 2015 at 8:11 am

    Much like others who have already posted, I want to play to, or lower, my handicap. I currently play off a +0.3, and I play an easy course, where the course rating is 66.5. Therefore, I look to shoot 66 or lower when I go out. Some days this isn’t possible unless I play a perfect round, but I always want to be under par.

  16. 8thehardway

    Apr 23, 2015 at 10:56 pm

    There are a lot of scores that put a smile on my face: 2 birdies, 3 strokes better than the rest of my foursome, 10 GIRs, 11 fairways, 26 putts. For the round, 74 on my par 70 course is a well spent Saturday.

  17. Gary Gutful

    Apr 23, 2015 at 5:22 pm

    A pass mark for me is to play to my handicap. Even on the toughest of courses that is my aim. If I don’t do it then I snap at least 3 clubs in the car par after the round…sometimes 4.

  18. Johnnythunders

    Apr 23, 2015 at 4:46 pm

    I really dont care what i shoot, i play in a match play league and love to beat my opponent. Love the strategy, the pressure, one on one is the best.

    Playing for score is so boring.

  19. RG

    Apr 23, 2015 at 3:07 pm

    I keep an index because I like to play tournamrnts and skins games. My index is currently 4.2 and I look at score like this.
    It’s going to happen and numbers cannot tell the story. The most important thing in a round is my decision making process and did I get everything out of the round I could that day. If I manage my game well the score will take care of itself.

  20. Bob

    Apr 23, 2015 at 2:45 pm

    I am happy to shoot 80-85. Have broken 80 4 times all just barely. I am a 18 handicap and anything over 85 I wonder if I just made this shot or that one it would have been a better round. Even a bad day on the golf course beats a good day at work.

  21. JBoh

    Apr 23, 2015 at 12:25 pm

    Score doesn’t really matter to me. I keep my handicap so I can play in events during the season, but its truly just relaxing to get out and play. My handicap states I am a 5, but some days large scores happen. I played 9 the other night and shot 46. 5 water balls did me in, but I struck the ball pretty well. Could not have been more pleased (working through some swing changes).

  22. R.Conklin

    Apr 23, 2015 at 11:39 am

    I’m a 22 handicap and for me, I call a good day anytime I break 90.

  23. bradford

    Apr 23, 2015 at 10:23 am

    Yeah, there’s a lot to be said about someone who can walk off the course and say “I played awful, but what a great day!”. I wish I could do it more often, but it being a game where every shot counts, it’s hard to ignore that 7. To answer the question, anything starting with a 7 is a pretty good day. I normally sit anywhere between 78-83 and can go a couple either way any given day.

  24. Bob

    Apr 23, 2015 at 10:16 am

    I play only nine holes at a time. 38 or 39 makes me feel good. 40 is a might-have been score, and 42 is a what happened? score.

  25. Connor

    Apr 23, 2015 at 1:44 am

    Division II college player.

    Anything with a 6 in front of it makes me “happy”, 70-72 leaves me pleased, but knowing I didn’t get everything out the round that I could, and if it is over par it means it was not all put together that day.

    Happiness is anytime I suck the life out of a round and walk away knowing I took everything from the round, and scored the best I could have, with the swing I had that day.

  26. MHendon

    Apr 23, 2015 at 12:44 am

    What scores make me happy, 70 to 75 I’m happy, any thing below 70 I’m ecstatic. I’m currently a 1.6

  27. slider

    Apr 23, 2015 at 12:00 am

    any day on the course is a good day in my eyes all you can do is your best on every shot

  28. Jonzy

    Apr 22, 2015 at 1:20 pm

    I’m a 12, and I’m extremely happy with breaking 80 (only done it twice), but if I shoot 86 or higher I feel that I had a bad day. To answer the question “what score makes me happy”, I’ll say 82. If I shoot 83-85, I’m not upset but I know that I screwed up somewhere.

  29. marty

    Apr 22, 2015 at 1:08 pm

    I hope for under 90.

  30. david

    Apr 22, 2015 at 12:58 pm

    I’m a3.7, my goal is 74 or beter. a lot is weather dependant; if it’s quite windy or cold, I’ll lower my expectations, it’s difficult for me to shoot more than 83 even when I play terrible, but I get bored if it’s another round of 77…I know I also need to lighten up.

  31. Jeff

    Apr 22, 2015 at 12:19 pm

    My handicap is just under 6, and my average score is just over 80. I am seldom happy with a round in the 80s unless I had a really bad hole and had to make up ground during the round.

  32. Sam

    Apr 22, 2015 at 11:43 am

    I play for my high school golf team, and im a 8 handicap. Im happy at 79 and under. Ive been playing for two years and when I do shoot a 90 or high 80s I feel like Im right back at square one.

  33. JMaron

    Apr 22, 2015 at 11:24 am

    Anything in that is 0 or better in the index for the round makes me happy. I’m a 1 handicap now, never been 0. Last year I did that 7 times in 40 rounds.

    Anything 80 and up makes me downright depressed. Did that 12 times in 40 rounds.

    Having pondered this question – I think I need to lighten up.

  34. Scott

    Apr 22, 2015 at 11:13 am

    I am a 5.5 index and most of the courses that I play are considered very difficult, especially my home course (slope of 148 from the tips and 142 from the blues) . I tried to not get too caught up in the numbers if I am hitting the ball well because big numbers lurk almost everywhere on my home course. If I am playing at my home course, I am happy breaking 80, but a low 80s won’t bother me too much, if I have some birdies and win some cash.

  35. JBH

    Apr 22, 2015 at 9:42 am

    I’m ecstatic with a round at or better than net par for my handicap (9), I don’t get too bent out of shape if I don’t break 80 though and generally shoot low to mid 80’s. There’s always a chance of blowing a round up into the 90’s on days when nothing feels right but they are few and far between. Used to be a bit of a hot head and still commit the crime of bad self talk when I’m struggling but getting better at letting go and refocusing on the next shot.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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