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What Score Makes You Happy?

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Final scores are arbitrary markers of success and failure. It’s almost random how the same numbers can add up to make one player happy and another upset. When a 14-handicap shoots a 79, it’s time to celebrate; when a four-handicap shoots 79, don’t ask him how he played.

A golfer can hit the ball well, but with a few missed putts or a few bad bounces what looked like a promising round can end with a score that doesn’t speak to the player’s ability. Or, if it did all come together and the golfer had one of his rounds of the year, you know what? Any player will tell you that score could have been — should have been — one or two strokes lower.

So, what score makes you feel happy? Dennis, a five-handicap with a solid swing and good touch around the greens, told me his number is 75.

[quote_box_center]“Anything below that and either I didn’t screw anything up much, or I played well enough to recover from my bad holes.”[/quote_box_center]

He said this after a mediocre-for-him 38 on the front nine at Victoria. On his way to the back nine he added, “Anything over 80 and I just write it off as one of those 10 rounds that doesn’t count toward my index.”

“I’m a 26-handicap,” Rhonelle from Calgary told me at Desert Willow. “Last Thursday I shot a 92. That’s a great score for me and I beat my friend who’s a 20-handicap. To get a good score and to win a close competition makes it doubly enjoyable.”

“Anything in the 70s,” said Marty, a high single digit with an unorthodox grip and swing. “I’ve played about 2,000 rounds of golf in the last 30 years and I’ve been under 80 I believe 473 times.” I looked to see if there was a calculator hanging next to the towel on his bag or if his caddy was an auditor with PricewaterhouseCoopers. “I can’t wait until I get to 500 sub-80s,” he said, like he thought that would bring a sure ticket to some personal Hall of Fame induction ceremony somewhere.

“When I break 90, I make everyone buy me beers,” Lenny said. Once he was an amateur boxer; he doesn’t overpower the course anymore though he says he is still capable of a big roundhouse hook.

“I don’t keep score,” Steven told me, and I figured that meant he didn’t want to count that high. “He’s good,” his buddy Jordan said at Malibu CC, “he just doesn’t like to get caught up in the numbers thing… he just likes to hit the shots.” I bowed toward him, thinking he’s either lying or I’m in the presence of a Zen master.

“I want to have a lower score on the back nine than on the front nine,” Alex told me on the 12th hole at Green Tree. His brother Jessie said maybe then he should quit after the 16th hole.

Steven said he likes to play courses that are par 71 or even par 70. “When you tell someone you shot an 82, they don’t ask you what par was on the course,” he explained.

“I’m an eight-handicap,” Terry said. “But I can shoot anywhere from 75 to 90 in any one round.”

“Yep,” his friend Freddy said, “he’s Mr. Consistent. But if you catch him on the right day, you can win some money from him.”

“So, what score makes you happy?” I asked again.

“If it’s a tournament, I want to be par or under, net. If it’s just a round with these guys, as long as I beat them I don’t care what I shoot. If I’m playing by myself, it’s all just practice and it doesn’t matter.”

Brian, a three-handicap, said, “I like to be around par or in the low 70s, but if I don’t, you know what? Nobody got hurt, nobody died. It’s just golf.” It must be easy to be philosophical when you’re a three, I think.

As for me, my handicap has gone up along with my age. Scores that used to be just a good number are now triumphs remembered for months. And the bad numbers are as easily forgotten as what I had for breakfast a week ago Friday.

My 89-year-old father-in-law still plays golf at his club on Long Island at least twice a week. He won some club tournaments when he was younger but now he says, “I don’t take myself seriously anymore, I just want to laugh and enjoy myself.” But the juices still flow. He says when he can play a par-4 with a drive in the fairway and an approach that gets him somewhere near the putting surface “so I can just run a 7-iron onto the green and putt for par,” then he’s happy. And, he adds, “I’m still happy even if I don’t make the par putt.”

What score makes you happy? Tell us in the comments section below. And check out Tom Hill’s humorous golf book, A Perfect Lie – The Hole Truth at 7-ironpress.com – use the coupon code GOLFWRX for free shipping of the paperback.

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Tom Hill is a 9.7 handicap, author and former radio reporter. Hill is the author of the recently released fiction novel, A Perfect Lie – The Hole Truth, a humorous golf saga of one player’s unexpected attempt to shoot a score he never before thought possible. Kirkus Reviews raved about A Perfect Lie, (It) “has the immediacy of a memoir…it’s no gimme but Hill nails it square.” (kirkusreviews.com). A Perfect Lie is available as an ebook or paperback through 7-ironpress.com and the first three chapters are available online to sample. Hill is a dedicated golfer who has played more than 2,000 rounds in the past 30 years and had a one-time personal best handicap of 5.5. As a freelance radio reporter, Hill covered more than 60 PGA and LPGA tournaments working for CBS Radio, ABC Radio, AP Audio, The Mutual Broadcasting System and individual radio stations around the country. “Few knew my name and no one saw my face,” he says, “but millions heard my voice.” Hill is the father of three sons and lives with his wife, Arava Talve, in southern California where he chases after a little white ball as often as he can.

37 Comments

37 Comments

  1. Bob

    Jul 22, 2015 at 2:19 am

    I play 4 times a week. Can’t drive. hit irons, pitch, chip or put. Handicap , if I kept a score would be above 36 hence I do not keep score. I ,however play fast and enjoy the game.

  2. Ron

    May 17, 2015 at 1:03 pm

    Great question! Golf is interesting partly because successive days on the same course can be so different. Whatever the level, golfers who play fairly often tend to score fifteen of the holes more-or-less the same – that is to say, the aggregate score will be comparable (but not the scores on the individual holes). Whether its a great round or a horrible one depends on what happened on the other three.

    For me (at 75 years old with an index of about 3), I’ll typically have 5 or 6 bogies, so a good or bad round depends on whether I birdie a couple of the others or bogie (or worse) the remaining three. So the score often comes down to two or three shots – either hit better or worse than on the rest of the round. Yesterday, my three bogies and two birdies made a great round. Had I bogeyed instead of birdied on those two, it would have just been so-so. Shooting my age, I guess, is always a target – but as my son so graciously reminds me, that is getting easier since I keep getting older!

    My happiness shouldn’t depend on any of that! After all, I’m still getting to play as much as I want!

  3. Big D

    May 8, 2015 at 3:52 am

    Having recently become a senior (50 years), I am at the point where I am just happy to be out on the course playing. I went through a period where my handicap was scratch or better for 15+ years but now play off a 3.8. Any time I can shoot under 75, I am thrilled. After a serious injury incurred hitting a tree root and going through 6 surgeries to try and resolve the issues, I just love playing whether that is shooting 70 or shooting 80. That being said, I am happier shooting 70 and losing than shooting 80 and winning.

  4. Mat

    May 2, 2015 at 3:52 pm

    I don’t care what the number is as long as my handicap goes down even a tenth. I’m a 17 these days, thus, roughly breaking 90 is a happy day.

  5. alan

    Apr 30, 2015 at 9:46 pm

    anything in the 70’s makes me happy. im a 7+ index so i dont get there as often as id like too but conditions play a huge part in my personal par which varies every time on get on the course.

  6. Progolfer

    Apr 27, 2015 at 1:28 am

    As my name indicates, I play for a living. My career low is 60 (lipped-out for 59), and that day I was so in the moment that it didn’t matter what I shot. That’s how you break barriers and play your best– forget about score and get absorbed in the game.

    I got a great tip from Eddie Merrins once. He said, “No matter how well you’re playing, there will always be somebody out there playing better than you are. Don’t ever protect your score.” Words of wisdom.

  7. JohnnyB

    Apr 26, 2015 at 3:48 pm

    Its easy, par or better. I will never forget the first time I broke par on 18 holes. It was one of the most satisfying days of my entire life.

  8. Matto

    Apr 25, 2015 at 5:39 pm

    About 6-7 years ago, after 25yrs of golf, I threw it all in, sold my clubs, cancelled my course membership and said F this game.
    I was taking it so seriously that it made me miserable, 84 was my best ever score.
    I didn’t play for 2yrs. Then I met some new friends on a job who were new to the game and I took it up again, promising myself not to revert to my old ways…and I never have. Within 6mths I had a 79.
    My number is 82-86, I’m a 10.8.
    My goal every round is to be the happiest guy in my group.

  9. Double Mocha Man

    Apr 24, 2015 at 8:06 pm

    If I shoot 2 over or better I am happy. So sad since I used to be ecstatic when I broke 80. When I’m very near par, or under, I will stop at Kentucky Fried Chicken on the way home and treat myself.

  10. ooffa

    Apr 24, 2015 at 4:31 pm

    I strive to shoot one shot better then the competition and collect the money without raising my handicap. If the best number is 80 then 79 takes the money why shoot 74 if you don’t have to. If your winning by a few dump one in the water or three put a few of the closing holes. Barely winning in the key to the bank.

    • Taylor

      Apr 24, 2015 at 8:25 pm

      So true. I keep my handicap so I can hopefully one day play in the state amateur, and to get strokes against my buddies. If I have the low score for the day I’m happy, typically the low score is high 70’s or low 80s. We typically play 73 rated courses, so thats a pretty good day.

  11. other paul

    Apr 24, 2015 at 1:49 pm

    I am happy when I hit great shots. No score will ever satisfy. Maybe 18 under par will satisfy. Not that I will ever know.

  12. RobG

    Apr 24, 2015 at 12:31 pm

    I only play golf 5 or 6 times per year. I’m always looking to shoot in the high 70’s but my game is too rusty and I usually end up in the mid 80’s. 84-85 I’m happy, 82-83 I’m content, 80-81 I’m thrilled. They only time I get really frustrated with my score is when I shoot 84-86 and I go back and add up my wasted shots – OB tee balls, balls left in bunkers, and missed short(ish) putts – and they add up to 8 or 10 strokes.

  13. Alex

    Apr 24, 2015 at 10:33 am

    I don’t really have a number. It’s more about what happened during the round. I can be happy with an 85 if I did my best and caught a few bad breaks. I can be disappointed in a 76 if I had some stupid mishits.

    It’s not the best way to think about it. A good-looking 80 and a bad-looking 80 are both 80s, but it’s hard for me to remember that I’m playing golf, not golf swing, sometimes.

  14. Jay

    Apr 24, 2015 at 9:34 am

    Division 1 hockey player who recently walked on my college’s varsity golf team. Its fun to play with the top guys on the squad because they are scratch golfers and as a 3 handicap who keeps up with them from time to time is a great feeling no matter what the number is.

  15. Blake

    Apr 24, 2015 at 8:11 am

    Much like others who have already posted, I want to play to, or lower, my handicap. I currently play off a +0.3, and I play an easy course, where the course rating is 66.5. Therefore, I look to shoot 66 or lower when I go out. Some days this isn’t possible unless I play a perfect round, but I always want to be under par.

  16. 8thehardway

    Apr 23, 2015 at 10:56 pm

    There are a lot of scores that put a smile on my face: 2 birdies, 3 strokes better than the rest of my foursome, 10 GIRs, 11 fairways, 26 putts. For the round, 74 on my par 70 course is a well spent Saturday.

  17. Gary Gutful

    Apr 23, 2015 at 5:22 pm

    A pass mark for me is to play to my handicap. Even on the toughest of courses that is my aim. If I don’t do it then I snap at least 3 clubs in the car par after the round…sometimes 4.

  18. Johnnythunders

    Apr 23, 2015 at 4:46 pm

    I really dont care what i shoot, i play in a match play league and love to beat my opponent. Love the strategy, the pressure, one on one is the best.

    Playing for score is so boring.

  19. RG

    Apr 23, 2015 at 3:07 pm

    I keep an index because I like to play tournamrnts and skins games. My index is currently 4.2 and I look at score like this.
    It’s going to happen and numbers cannot tell the story. The most important thing in a round is my decision making process and did I get everything out of the round I could that day. If I manage my game well the score will take care of itself.

  20. Bob

    Apr 23, 2015 at 2:45 pm

    I am happy to shoot 80-85. Have broken 80 4 times all just barely. I am a 18 handicap and anything over 85 I wonder if I just made this shot or that one it would have been a better round. Even a bad day on the golf course beats a good day at work.

  21. JBoh

    Apr 23, 2015 at 12:25 pm

    Score doesn’t really matter to me. I keep my handicap so I can play in events during the season, but its truly just relaxing to get out and play. My handicap states I am a 5, but some days large scores happen. I played 9 the other night and shot 46. 5 water balls did me in, but I struck the ball pretty well. Could not have been more pleased (working through some swing changes).

  22. R.Conklin

    Apr 23, 2015 at 11:39 am

    I’m a 22 handicap and for me, I call a good day anytime I break 90.

  23. bradford

    Apr 23, 2015 at 10:23 am

    Yeah, there’s a lot to be said about someone who can walk off the course and say “I played awful, but what a great day!”. I wish I could do it more often, but it being a game where every shot counts, it’s hard to ignore that 7. To answer the question, anything starting with a 7 is a pretty good day. I normally sit anywhere between 78-83 and can go a couple either way any given day.

  24. Bob

    Apr 23, 2015 at 10:16 am

    I play only nine holes at a time. 38 or 39 makes me feel good. 40 is a might-have been score, and 42 is a what happened? score.

  25. Connor

    Apr 23, 2015 at 1:44 am

    Division II college player.

    Anything with a 6 in front of it makes me “happy”, 70-72 leaves me pleased, but knowing I didn’t get everything out the round that I could, and if it is over par it means it was not all put together that day.

    Happiness is anytime I suck the life out of a round and walk away knowing I took everything from the round, and scored the best I could have, with the swing I had that day.

  26. MHendon

    Apr 23, 2015 at 12:44 am

    What scores make me happy, 70 to 75 I’m happy, any thing below 70 I’m ecstatic. I’m currently a 1.6

  27. slider

    Apr 23, 2015 at 12:00 am

    any day on the course is a good day in my eyes all you can do is your best on every shot

  28. Jonzy

    Apr 22, 2015 at 1:20 pm

    I’m a 12, and I’m extremely happy with breaking 80 (only done it twice), but if I shoot 86 or higher I feel that I had a bad day. To answer the question “what score makes me happy”, I’ll say 82. If I shoot 83-85, I’m not upset but I know that I screwed up somewhere.

  29. marty

    Apr 22, 2015 at 1:08 pm

    I hope for under 90.

  30. david

    Apr 22, 2015 at 12:58 pm

    I’m a3.7, my goal is 74 or beter. a lot is weather dependant; if it’s quite windy or cold, I’ll lower my expectations, it’s difficult for me to shoot more than 83 even when I play terrible, but I get bored if it’s another round of 77…I know I also need to lighten up.

  31. Jeff

    Apr 22, 2015 at 12:19 pm

    My handicap is just under 6, and my average score is just over 80. I am seldom happy with a round in the 80s unless I had a really bad hole and had to make up ground during the round.

  32. Sam

    Apr 22, 2015 at 11:43 am

    I play for my high school golf team, and im a 8 handicap. Im happy at 79 and under. Ive been playing for two years and when I do shoot a 90 or high 80s I feel like Im right back at square one.

  33. JMaron

    Apr 22, 2015 at 11:24 am

    Anything in that is 0 or better in the index for the round makes me happy. I’m a 1 handicap now, never been 0. Last year I did that 7 times in 40 rounds.

    Anything 80 and up makes me downright depressed. Did that 12 times in 40 rounds.

    Having pondered this question – I think I need to lighten up.

  34. Scott

    Apr 22, 2015 at 11:13 am

    I am a 5.5 index and most of the courses that I play are considered very difficult, especially my home course (slope of 148 from the tips and 142 from the blues) . I tried to not get too caught up in the numbers if I am hitting the ball well because big numbers lurk almost everywhere on my home course. If I am playing at my home course, I am happy breaking 80, but a low 80s won’t bother me too much, if I have some birdies and win some cash.

  35. JBH

    Apr 22, 2015 at 9:42 am

    I’m ecstatic with a round at or better than net par for my handicap (9), I don’t get too bent out of shape if I don’t break 80 though and generally shoot low to mid 80’s. There’s always a chance of blowing a round up into the 90’s on days when nothing feels right but they are few and far between. Used to be a bit of a hot head and still commit the crime of bad self talk when I’m struggling but getting better at letting go and refocusing on the next shot.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

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In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

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Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions. 

Past Winners at Harbour Town

  • 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
  • 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
  • 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
  • 2019: CT Pan (-12)
  • 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
  • 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
  • 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
  • 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.27)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.16)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
  5. Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (88.8%)
  2. Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
  3. Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
  4. Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
  5. Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
  4. Brian Harman (+1.89)
  5. Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
  2. Taylor Moore (+1.02)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
  4. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
  5. Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

  1. Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
  3. Corey Conners (+69.0%)
  4. Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
  5. Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up. 

Course History over past 24 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
  2. Cam Davis (+2.05)
  3. J.T. Poston (+1.69)
  4. Justin Rose (+1.68)
  5. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

  1. Shane Lowry
  2. Russell Henley
  3. Scottie Scheffler
  4. Xander Schauffele
  5. Corey Conners 
  6. Wyndham Clark
  7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  8. Matt Fitzpatrick
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Ludvig Aberg 

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past.  In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks. 

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at. 

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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