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What Score Makes You Happy?

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Final scores are arbitrary markers of success and failure. It’s almost random how the same numbers can add up to make one player happy and another upset. When a 14-handicap shoots a 79, it’s time to celebrate; when a four-handicap shoots 79, don’t ask him how he played.

A golfer can hit the ball well, but with a few missed putts or a few bad bounces what looked like a promising round can end with a score that doesn’t speak to the player’s ability. Or, if it did all come together and the golfer had one of his rounds of the year, you know what? Any player will tell you that score could have been — should have been — one or two strokes lower.

So, what score makes you feel happy? Dennis, a five-handicap with a solid swing and good touch around the greens, told me his number is 75.

[quote_box_center]“Anything below that and either I didn’t screw anything up much, or I played well enough to recover from my bad holes.”[/quote_box_center]

He said this after a mediocre-for-him 38 on the front nine at Victoria. On his way to the back nine he added, “Anything over 80 and I just write it off as one of those 10 rounds that doesn’t count toward my index.”

“I’m a 26-handicap,” Rhonelle from Calgary told me at Desert Willow. “Last Thursday I shot a 92. That’s a great score for me and I beat my friend who’s a 20-handicap. To get a good score and to win a close competition makes it doubly enjoyable.”

“Anything in the 70s,” said Marty, a high single digit with an unorthodox grip and swing. “I’ve played about 2,000 rounds of golf in the last 30 years and I’ve been under 80 I believe 473 times.” I looked to see if there was a calculator hanging next to the towel on his bag or if his caddy was an auditor with PricewaterhouseCoopers. “I can’t wait until I get to 500 sub-80s,” he said, like he thought that would bring a sure ticket to some personal Hall of Fame induction ceremony somewhere.

“When I break 90, I make everyone buy me beers,” Lenny said. Once he was an amateur boxer; he doesn’t overpower the course anymore though he says he is still capable of a big roundhouse hook.

“I don’t keep score,” Steven told me, and I figured that meant he didn’t want to count that high. “He’s good,” his buddy Jordan said at Malibu CC, “he just doesn’t like to get caught up in the numbers thing… he just likes to hit the shots.” I bowed toward him, thinking he’s either lying or I’m in the presence of a Zen master.

“I want to have a lower score on the back nine than on the front nine,” Alex told me on the 12th hole at Green Tree. His brother Jessie said maybe then he should quit after the 16th hole.

Steven said he likes to play courses that are par 71 or even par 70. “When you tell someone you shot an 82, they don’t ask you what par was on the course,” he explained.

“I’m an eight-handicap,” Terry said. “But I can shoot anywhere from 75 to 90 in any one round.”

“Yep,” his friend Freddy said, “he’s Mr. Consistent. But if you catch him on the right day, you can win some money from him.”

“So, what score makes you happy?” I asked again.

“If it’s a tournament, I want to be par or under, net. If it’s just a round with these guys, as long as I beat them I don’t care what I shoot. If I’m playing by myself, it’s all just practice and it doesn’t matter.”

Brian, a three-handicap, said, “I like to be around par or in the low 70s, but if I don’t, you know what? Nobody got hurt, nobody died. It’s just golf.” It must be easy to be philosophical when you’re a three, I think.

As for me, my handicap has gone up along with my age. Scores that used to be just a good number are now triumphs remembered for months. And the bad numbers are as easily forgotten as what I had for breakfast a week ago Friday.

My 89-year-old father-in-law still plays golf at his club on Long Island at least twice a week. He won some club tournaments when he was younger but now he says, “I don’t take myself seriously anymore, I just want to laugh and enjoy myself.” But the juices still flow. He says when he can play a par-4 with a drive in the fairway and an approach that gets him somewhere near the putting surface “so I can just run a 7-iron onto the green and putt for par,” then he’s happy. And, he adds, “I’m still happy even if I don’t make the par putt.”

What score makes you happy? Tell us in the comments section below. And check out Tom Hill’s humorous golf book, A Perfect Lie – The Hole Truth at 7-ironpress.com – use the coupon code GOLFWRX for free shipping of the paperback.

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Tom Hill is a 9.7 handicap, author and former radio reporter. Hill is the author of the recently released fiction novel, A Perfect Lie – The Hole Truth, a humorous golf saga of one player’s unexpected attempt to shoot a score he never before thought possible. Kirkus Reviews raved about A Perfect Lie, (It) “has the immediacy of a memoir…it’s no gimme but Hill nails it square.” (kirkusreviews.com). A Perfect Lie is available as an ebook or paperback through 7-ironpress.com and the first three chapters are available online to sample. Hill is a dedicated golfer who has played more than 2,000 rounds in the past 30 years and had a one-time personal best handicap of 5.5. As a freelance radio reporter, Hill covered more than 60 PGA and LPGA tournaments working for CBS Radio, ABC Radio, AP Audio, The Mutual Broadcasting System and individual radio stations around the country. “Few knew my name and no one saw my face,” he says, “but millions heard my voice.” Hill is the father of three sons and lives with his wife, Arava Talve, in southern California where he chases after a little white ball as often as he can.

37 Comments

37 Comments

  1. Bob

    Jul 22, 2015 at 2:19 am

    I play 4 times a week. Can’t drive. hit irons, pitch, chip or put. Handicap , if I kept a score would be above 36 hence I do not keep score. I ,however play fast and enjoy the game.

  2. Ron

    May 17, 2015 at 1:03 pm

    Great question! Golf is interesting partly because successive days on the same course can be so different. Whatever the level, golfers who play fairly often tend to score fifteen of the holes more-or-less the same – that is to say, the aggregate score will be comparable (but not the scores on the individual holes). Whether its a great round or a horrible one depends on what happened on the other three.

    For me (at 75 years old with an index of about 3), I’ll typically have 5 or 6 bogies, so a good or bad round depends on whether I birdie a couple of the others or bogie (or worse) the remaining three. So the score often comes down to two or three shots – either hit better or worse than on the rest of the round. Yesterday, my three bogies and two birdies made a great round. Had I bogeyed instead of birdied on those two, it would have just been so-so. Shooting my age, I guess, is always a target – but as my son so graciously reminds me, that is getting easier since I keep getting older!

    My happiness shouldn’t depend on any of that! After all, I’m still getting to play as much as I want!

  3. Big D

    May 8, 2015 at 3:52 am

    Having recently become a senior (50 years), I am at the point where I am just happy to be out on the course playing. I went through a period where my handicap was scratch or better for 15+ years but now play off a 3.8. Any time I can shoot under 75, I am thrilled. After a serious injury incurred hitting a tree root and going through 6 surgeries to try and resolve the issues, I just love playing whether that is shooting 70 or shooting 80. That being said, I am happier shooting 70 and losing than shooting 80 and winning.

  4. Mat

    May 2, 2015 at 3:52 pm

    I don’t care what the number is as long as my handicap goes down even a tenth. I’m a 17 these days, thus, roughly breaking 90 is a happy day.

  5. alan

    Apr 30, 2015 at 9:46 pm

    anything in the 70’s makes me happy. im a 7+ index so i dont get there as often as id like too but conditions play a huge part in my personal par which varies every time on get on the course.

  6. Progolfer

    Apr 27, 2015 at 1:28 am

    As my name indicates, I play for a living. My career low is 60 (lipped-out for 59), and that day I was so in the moment that it didn’t matter what I shot. That’s how you break barriers and play your best– forget about score and get absorbed in the game.

    I got a great tip from Eddie Merrins once. He said, “No matter how well you’re playing, there will always be somebody out there playing better than you are. Don’t ever protect your score.” Words of wisdom.

  7. JohnnyB

    Apr 26, 2015 at 3:48 pm

    Its easy, par or better. I will never forget the first time I broke par on 18 holes. It was one of the most satisfying days of my entire life.

  8. Matto

    Apr 25, 2015 at 5:39 pm

    About 6-7 years ago, after 25yrs of golf, I threw it all in, sold my clubs, cancelled my course membership and said F this game.
    I was taking it so seriously that it made me miserable, 84 was my best ever score.
    I didn’t play for 2yrs. Then I met some new friends on a job who were new to the game and I took it up again, promising myself not to revert to my old ways…and I never have. Within 6mths I had a 79.
    My number is 82-86, I’m a 10.8.
    My goal every round is to be the happiest guy in my group.

  9. Double Mocha Man

    Apr 24, 2015 at 8:06 pm

    If I shoot 2 over or better I am happy. So sad since I used to be ecstatic when I broke 80. When I’m very near par, or under, I will stop at Kentucky Fried Chicken on the way home and treat myself.

  10. ooffa

    Apr 24, 2015 at 4:31 pm

    I strive to shoot one shot better then the competition and collect the money without raising my handicap. If the best number is 80 then 79 takes the money why shoot 74 if you don’t have to. If your winning by a few dump one in the water or three put a few of the closing holes. Barely winning in the key to the bank.

    • Taylor

      Apr 24, 2015 at 8:25 pm

      So true. I keep my handicap so I can hopefully one day play in the state amateur, and to get strokes against my buddies. If I have the low score for the day I’m happy, typically the low score is high 70’s or low 80s. We typically play 73 rated courses, so thats a pretty good day.

  11. other paul

    Apr 24, 2015 at 1:49 pm

    I am happy when I hit great shots. No score will ever satisfy. Maybe 18 under par will satisfy. Not that I will ever know.

  12. RobG

    Apr 24, 2015 at 12:31 pm

    I only play golf 5 or 6 times per year. I’m always looking to shoot in the high 70’s but my game is too rusty and I usually end up in the mid 80’s. 84-85 I’m happy, 82-83 I’m content, 80-81 I’m thrilled. They only time I get really frustrated with my score is when I shoot 84-86 and I go back and add up my wasted shots – OB tee balls, balls left in bunkers, and missed short(ish) putts – and they add up to 8 or 10 strokes.

  13. Alex

    Apr 24, 2015 at 10:33 am

    I don’t really have a number. It’s more about what happened during the round. I can be happy with an 85 if I did my best and caught a few bad breaks. I can be disappointed in a 76 if I had some stupid mishits.

    It’s not the best way to think about it. A good-looking 80 and a bad-looking 80 are both 80s, but it’s hard for me to remember that I’m playing golf, not golf swing, sometimes.

  14. Jay

    Apr 24, 2015 at 9:34 am

    Division 1 hockey player who recently walked on my college’s varsity golf team. Its fun to play with the top guys on the squad because they are scratch golfers and as a 3 handicap who keeps up with them from time to time is a great feeling no matter what the number is.

  15. Blake

    Apr 24, 2015 at 8:11 am

    Much like others who have already posted, I want to play to, or lower, my handicap. I currently play off a +0.3, and I play an easy course, where the course rating is 66.5. Therefore, I look to shoot 66 or lower when I go out. Some days this isn’t possible unless I play a perfect round, but I always want to be under par.

  16. 8thehardway

    Apr 23, 2015 at 10:56 pm

    There are a lot of scores that put a smile on my face: 2 birdies, 3 strokes better than the rest of my foursome, 10 GIRs, 11 fairways, 26 putts. For the round, 74 on my par 70 course is a well spent Saturday.

  17. Gary Gutful

    Apr 23, 2015 at 5:22 pm

    A pass mark for me is to play to my handicap. Even on the toughest of courses that is my aim. If I don’t do it then I snap at least 3 clubs in the car par after the round…sometimes 4.

  18. Johnnythunders

    Apr 23, 2015 at 4:46 pm

    I really dont care what i shoot, i play in a match play league and love to beat my opponent. Love the strategy, the pressure, one on one is the best.

    Playing for score is so boring.

  19. RG

    Apr 23, 2015 at 3:07 pm

    I keep an index because I like to play tournamrnts and skins games. My index is currently 4.2 and I look at score like this.
    It’s going to happen and numbers cannot tell the story. The most important thing in a round is my decision making process and did I get everything out of the round I could that day. If I manage my game well the score will take care of itself.

  20. Bob

    Apr 23, 2015 at 2:45 pm

    I am happy to shoot 80-85. Have broken 80 4 times all just barely. I am a 18 handicap and anything over 85 I wonder if I just made this shot or that one it would have been a better round. Even a bad day on the golf course beats a good day at work.

  21. JBoh

    Apr 23, 2015 at 12:25 pm

    Score doesn’t really matter to me. I keep my handicap so I can play in events during the season, but its truly just relaxing to get out and play. My handicap states I am a 5, but some days large scores happen. I played 9 the other night and shot 46. 5 water balls did me in, but I struck the ball pretty well. Could not have been more pleased (working through some swing changes).

  22. R.Conklin

    Apr 23, 2015 at 11:39 am

    I’m a 22 handicap and for me, I call a good day anytime I break 90.

  23. bradford

    Apr 23, 2015 at 10:23 am

    Yeah, there’s a lot to be said about someone who can walk off the course and say “I played awful, but what a great day!”. I wish I could do it more often, but it being a game where every shot counts, it’s hard to ignore that 7. To answer the question, anything starting with a 7 is a pretty good day. I normally sit anywhere between 78-83 and can go a couple either way any given day.

  24. Bob

    Apr 23, 2015 at 10:16 am

    I play only nine holes at a time. 38 or 39 makes me feel good. 40 is a might-have been score, and 42 is a what happened? score.

  25. Connor

    Apr 23, 2015 at 1:44 am

    Division II college player.

    Anything with a 6 in front of it makes me “happy”, 70-72 leaves me pleased, but knowing I didn’t get everything out the round that I could, and if it is over par it means it was not all put together that day.

    Happiness is anytime I suck the life out of a round and walk away knowing I took everything from the round, and scored the best I could have, with the swing I had that day.

  26. MHendon

    Apr 23, 2015 at 12:44 am

    What scores make me happy, 70 to 75 I’m happy, any thing below 70 I’m ecstatic. I’m currently a 1.6

  27. slider

    Apr 23, 2015 at 12:00 am

    any day on the course is a good day in my eyes all you can do is your best on every shot

  28. Jonzy

    Apr 22, 2015 at 1:20 pm

    I’m a 12, and I’m extremely happy with breaking 80 (only done it twice), but if I shoot 86 or higher I feel that I had a bad day. To answer the question “what score makes me happy”, I’ll say 82. If I shoot 83-85, I’m not upset but I know that I screwed up somewhere.

  29. marty

    Apr 22, 2015 at 1:08 pm

    I hope for under 90.

  30. david

    Apr 22, 2015 at 12:58 pm

    I’m a3.7, my goal is 74 or beter. a lot is weather dependant; if it’s quite windy or cold, I’ll lower my expectations, it’s difficult for me to shoot more than 83 even when I play terrible, but I get bored if it’s another round of 77…I know I also need to lighten up.

  31. Jeff

    Apr 22, 2015 at 12:19 pm

    My handicap is just under 6, and my average score is just over 80. I am seldom happy with a round in the 80s unless I had a really bad hole and had to make up ground during the round.

  32. Sam

    Apr 22, 2015 at 11:43 am

    I play for my high school golf team, and im a 8 handicap. Im happy at 79 and under. Ive been playing for two years and when I do shoot a 90 or high 80s I feel like Im right back at square one.

  33. JMaron

    Apr 22, 2015 at 11:24 am

    Anything in that is 0 or better in the index for the round makes me happy. I’m a 1 handicap now, never been 0. Last year I did that 7 times in 40 rounds.

    Anything 80 and up makes me downright depressed. Did that 12 times in 40 rounds.

    Having pondered this question – I think I need to lighten up.

  34. Scott

    Apr 22, 2015 at 11:13 am

    I am a 5.5 index and most of the courses that I play are considered very difficult, especially my home course (slope of 148 from the tips and 142 from the blues) . I tried to not get too caught up in the numbers if I am hitting the ball well because big numbers lurk almost everywhere on my home course. If I am playing at my home course, I am happy breaking 80, but a low 80s won’t bother me too much, if I have some birdies and win some cash.

  35. JBH

    Apr 22, 2015 at 9:42 am

    I’m ecstatic with a round at or better than net par for my handicap (9), I don’t get too bent out of shape if I don’t break 80 though and generally shoot low to mid 80’s. There’s always a chance of blowing a round up into the 90’s on days when nothing feels right but they are few and far between. Used to be a bit of a hot head and still commit the crime of bad self talk when I’m struggling but getting better at letting go and refocusing on the next shot.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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