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Opinion & Analysis

Why it’s hard to make good clubs for bad golfers

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I read some of the 2015 GolfWRX Gear Trials and the comments. Recently, there was a also an analysis of the new Adams Blue line on the site.

The comments seemed to be: “OK, these are for average players. Fine. Let’s get to the real challenge, clubs for very good players.”

I know nothing about the Adams Blue line, have never seen a sample. But the idea that clubs for average players give way to the real challenge of making product for good golfers is, well, backwards.

It’s much harder to make clubs that can perform well for high-handicap golfers than it is for really good players.

That comes from years on the range as a custom fitter and designer of several models. I remember back in 1953 when I cleaned and stored clubs at Tuscorara Golf Club, which was near my residence in Marcellus, N.Y., and had a population of 700 at the time. What I specifically remember is that when I clean sets there were always clubs that hadn’t been hit.

Now, golf equipment was relatively expensive then, as it is now, and I couldn’t understand why people would buy clubs and not use them. For reference, the movie theater in Marcellus showed double headers, $0.15 admission and a bag of very stale popcorn from the machine for a dime. So yes, golf clubs were a luxury.

I remember thinking that maybe some of the clubs just weren’t well designed, and maybe that was why they were seldom used. At the time, I had no clue about the complexities involved it was just a thought that stuck with me.

Take the challenge of designing a set of irons. Historically, you would design a 4 iron and an 8 iron as the transition clubs and fill out the set. So if it’s the old school 3-PW set, or today’s set — 4 iron/hybrid through gap wedge — you have a set of clubs with different lofts, lies, weights, and lengths, all made in a sequence. All of these variables were designed to produce a parabola shape of shots, from the shortest club to the longest club, and the distance between the parabolas was to be consistent. It’s what we call gapping.

When you have all those variables, to achieve an objective of predictable results you must have some constants. In the golf world it’s speed, enough to make each club perform as designed. With the consistency of the hit, it’s the same objective. This is fine for the good player, but not applicable to the higher handicappers. So sets for those players were sold with “more forgiving” heads, but they still required the same striking speed and consistency of better players to obtain the results promised in the sale.

Standing on the range back in the early 90’s, I remember visions of my club cleaning days of the 50’s and the clubs that were never hit. They didn’t perform well enough to get in the lineup. I spent a great deal of time trying to figure how to make clubs for the average player. We made clubs for the good players, but the average market in those days was more of a step-child and I saw it as an opportunity. When we started designing full sets, we did not take the “set” approach, because the target market was higher handicappers.

This is where things changed.

It may not seem like much, but in reality it was backwards thinking. We started with the desired shot, resulting in a club design, then started over for the next one and through the set. The long iron (and now the hybrid) was an individual entity, and when it was done the next club in the set was not required to have the traditional sequence of differences or even look the same. Instead of clubs producing shots, we thought in terms of what the player was trying to achieve and went from the shot back to the club design. There were no traditional standards for lofts, lies, weights, lengths even center of gravity (CG) location.

Even then, what we really wanted to do was make a set of irons totaling about six clubs. We knew the slower speeds and imperfect swings were inefficient, but the buying market was trained on a full set and that’s what golfers wanted.

We wanted to take the longer clubs, which had 3-to-4 degrees difference in loft and slightly different lengths, split the difference, and make one club. We knew that the combination of slower swing speeds and less-than-perfect hits would make that a more useful club, and it would morph into a mix of mid and shorter irons. Except, of course, we were in the business of selling clubs and our idea wasn’t well received. Kind of reminds me of 30 years ago when Tommy Armour tried selling a set of irons all with the same 6-iron length called EQL. There are folks today that will tell you the concept was solid, and you can find same-length sets on the Internet.

Screen Shot 2015-04-07 at 2.58.06 PM

A set of Tommy Armour’s EQL irons, all of which were the same length.

Whether they are or not, golf equipment today is marketing. It takes millions of dollars, and no one wants to gamble on a 30-year-old concept that had marginal success. Especially when it won’t be played on the PGA Tour.

The marketing formula features the Tour, getting players to play the product and parlaying that into retail sales. But I’d be remiss if I didn’t remember some of the swings I saw on the range, which were the farthest things from the PGA Tour. They’d fall back, twirl with the left foot doing a dance and I’d think to myself, “OK big boy, let’s see you design a long second-shot club for that!”

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Barney Adams is the founder of Adams Golf and the inventor of the iconic "Tight Lies" fairway wood. He served as Chairman of the Board for Adams until 2012, when the company was purchased by TaylorMade-Adidas. Adams is one of golf's most distinguished entrepreneurs, receiving honors such as Manufacturing Entrepreneur of the Year by Ernst & Young in 1999 and the 2010 Ernie Sabayrac Award for lifetime contribution to the golf industry by the PGA of America. His journey in the golf industry started as as a club fitter, however, and has the epoxy filled shirts as a testimony to his days as an assembler. Have an equipment question? Adams holds seven patents on club design and has conducted research on every club in the bag. He welcomes your equipment questions through email at [email protected] Adams is now retired from the golf equipment industry, but his passion for the game endures through his writing. He is the author of "The WOW Factor," a book published in 2008 that offers an insider's view of the golf industry and business advice to entrepreneurs, and he continues to contribute articles to outlets like GolfWRX that offer his solutions to grow the game of golf.

31 Comments

31 Comments

  1. linh vat phong thuy

    Jul 7, 2017 at 3:12 am

    I spent a great deal of time trying to figure how to make clubs for the average player.

  2. vang ma ha noi

    Apr 5, 2017 at 11:54 am

    Funny you say that. I made almost that exact set for my wife, and it works perfectly. 7 clubs is PLENTY for beginners and many amateurs.
    14-degree driver, 5-wood (22), 6-hybrid (30), 7i, 9i, SW, putter.
    I don’t know why companies like Adams don’t make 7-club sets that are good quality, obviously cheaper than 14-club sets, they are light, easy to carry, etc… Seems like it would be a no-brainer for growing the game. Sell them with a sweet carry bag and promote the fitness aspect. But as Mr. Adams has stated above… they don’t want to sell 7 clubs. They want to sell 14.

  3. tienamphu.com/category/vang-ma

    Apr 5, 2017 at 11:53 am

    We cant assume he is a terrible ball striker because it takes the same impact with a hybrid as it does with a long iron when played correctly. I too often do not use 5 iron on up but I still do carry a 5 and 4 iron in the bag for those occasional long par 3’s. I also carry a 22 degree hybrid which covers my 220-230 yard shots on shorter par 5’s if I have that option. I used to carry a 3 hybrid which I took out of the bag in lieu of a 52 degree gap wedge mostly because I found more use out of the wedges and no the 3 hybrid. I as

  4. may photocopy ricoh

    Mar 10, 2017 at 10:31 pm

    I need 5 wedges to average around 76. I think Phil and myself are the only two people left on the planet playing a 64 degree wedge. For consistency I like to put nearly full swings on my wedges

  5. Pingback: Could the clubs make the golfer? - Golf Slot Machine

  6. JH

    Oct 8, 2015 at 12:44 pm

    I think the problem is the “tour” mentality. Honestly who cares. Go find me an average golfer who follows the tour like a good player does. Chances are you won’t. The average golfer or high-handicapper, is the guy least likely to follow the sport or even know what is best for him. It doesn’t have to work for the tour. It has to work for the average guy. Until someone makes that gamble and it will pay off, GI clubs won’t benefit anyone.

  7. golfiend

    Apr 16, 2015 at 10:00 pm

    i personally believe beginning golfers should learn playing blade irons. Not just because I learned to play golf with blades, but because i’ve tried cavity backs (higher moi) and even super game improvement irons and the club feedback is not always there. The weight ratio (from top half to bottom half of the iron sans shaft) distribution of game improvement irons (and stronger lofts) does not promote a higher launch which is not conducive to someone who “traps” (hit down on) the ball. I guess for the flipper, it would work, but that’s no way to play golf or get better at ball striking. The hybrid as a replacement for long irons is an unqualified success except in windy conditions. Marketing as you say helps to make the golfers feel good about his clubs and his confidence and we should not discount its effect on the golfer from a mental perspective.

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  9. Larry111

    Apr 13, 2015 at 11:38 am

    Would irons be easier to hit if they didn’t have built in shaft lean?

  10. Ol deadeye

    Apr 11, 2015 at 5:48 pm

    Some thoughts. Most players carry 14 clubs but may only use 8or 9 in a round. My old men’s club in Hawaii used to have 7 club tournaments. At most only a one shot variation in average scores. Then 5 club tournament, same result. Finally a 3 club event. One club had to be a putter. The other two, your choice. Almost no drivers appeared. Scores went up by about 2 shots. Mostly by the higher handicappers. And, it was fun. You can “build” your set by knowing your game. Take me, average drive, 225. So I play the gold tees, makes most par 5s about 485. That’s leaves 260. Six iron is 155, lay up to 105. My pitching wedge goes 110. That’s 490 yards. Close enough. Two putts, take my par and move on. On my 6000 yard course par fours average 350 yards or less. That leaves 175. I can’t reliably hit any iron that far so my #4 hybrid comes out. I can hit it it 185 so choke down slightly and I’m center of the green. Two putts then to the par 3. Some are long, 195, some short, 145. My hybrid covers the long ones, 7 iron the others. Oh, but what if I miss a green? I do, a lot. So I carry two wedges, a 54 and 58. Let’s see that’s driver, #4 hybrid, 6,7,PW,54,58, putter. Eight clubs. Covers 90% of holes on my course. I carry 14 so that’s 6 clubs to cover 10% of play. Well, I love my 8 iron and my 4 wood. I’m sure you have your favorites. Club manufacturers are cringing. They would sell you a 25 club set if marketing could convince you that you need that. Oh, there’s the rules of golf. Have a good round.

  11. Double Mocha Man

    Apr 10, 2015 at 9:28 pm

    I need 5 wedges to average around 76. I think Phil and myself are the only two people left on the planet playing a 64 degree wedge. For consistency I like to put nearly full swings on my wedges… half swings and less end up as chunks.

  12. Tom Wishon

    Apr 10, 2015 at 6:01 pm

    It’s not hard at all to make good performing clubs for high handicappers. No driver would be longer than 43 1/2″, drivers would come with a variety of closed to very closed face angles and be offered in real lofts as high as 15-16*. There would be no fairway woods of lower loft than 17*, fwy sets would offer up to a 9 wood, even 11 wood, and there would be no irons with a loft lower than 30*. And retailers would train and incentivize their sales staff to be NICE and RESPECTFUL to the high handicappers.

    Or better yet, there would be no clubs in any retail store or shop for high handicappers and instead, all stores would send the high hdcps to the very best professional custom clubfitter in the area who most certainly would fit and build the clubs to specs to perfectly fit the high hdcp player so he/she could reduce the frequency and severity of their bad shots to see that it is possible to play a little better and enjoy the game a little more.

    It is SO EASY to fit and make clubs for high hdcps that will play better for them that the clubs being sold off the rack with their std specs that so much prevent the high hdcp players from playing to the best of their ability and which make it more difficult for the high hdcp player from benefitting as much as they could/should when they do decide to take lessons. Every experienced clubfitter knows this all too well.

    • gorden

      Apr 12, 2015 at 12:42 am

      I would agree making clubs for the higher handicap player would be easy if you could get them into some lessons first….I think everyone out playing would have a much better time if the beginers would take a few lessons before playing and we all tell the highest handicap players it is 100% ok to bend the rules enough to make the game faster and more fun as they learn.

    • larrybud

      Oct 13, 2015 at 7:06 pm

      But that’s the difference, right? I mean, for the mass market, it IS hard to make “generic” clubs that perform well for high handicappers, because it has to be a one size fits all, and higher handicapped players have a higher variety of swings than a low capper.

      The low capper generally is pretty close to on plane, and the face is fairly square at impact, and contact is more or less around the center.

      But then make a one-size-fits-all club for the guy who either comes across it 15 degrees out to in, or instead of a 1″ radius of impact, he hits it all over the face, it’s going to be much more difficult to do that.

  13. Greg V

    Apr 10, 2015 at 9:55 am

    Check out the Bridgestone Dual Pocket Forged irons.

  14. Sean

    Apr 9, 2015 at 11:01 pm

    I really think that building clubs for high handicappers is all that difficult. I think the restrictions of confirming specs are the problem. I really think we need to take into perspective that golf is a game and not a sport. A sport allows unconditional specs until achieving pro status. Take baseball, we have aluminum bats until you go pro. Relax the rules for amateur equipment. Look what DeMarini did for the sport of softball…….

    • Reeves

      Apr 19, 2015 at 12:35 am

      You can relax the rules all you want but that 5 some of 20 plus handicaps playing in front of you on a Saturday (drinking beer and smoking cigars) all thinking they are one driving range visit away form their invite to the Masters , have to follow every stinking rule or the $5 dollar bet is off.

  15. marcel

    Apr 9, 2015 at 2:21 am

    Barney – as always spot on. the golf is facing one major problem… it wants to grow but with giving impression “it is that easy”… which is not… clubs for high handicappers does not exist – you need to know how to hit a ball and then most clubs (shaft) will do the job…

  16. other paul

    Apr 8, 2015 at 6:24 pm

    Always fun to read what Barney writes. Keep it up. Love my tightlies 3W mr. Adams.

  17. Steve

    Apr 8, 2015 at 1:11 pm

    High handicap players tend to have more flaws in their game; Faulty grip, posture, swing-plane, etc. A good player can swing essentially any club and make the ball travel a consistent line. A bad player needs a set of clubs and Hogan’s Modern Fundamentals of Golf (and after that a few lessons can help). Learning how to swing a club CANNOT be replaced by spending all of the money in sight.

  18. Tim

    Apr 8, 2015 at 12:17 pm

    I believe one of the other editorial contributors to this site has promoted the single length set of golf clubs. I have to say if i could try a set I would but as with all these potentially good ideas without the ability to get it to the masses they fall flat and will never achieve market share enough to prove if the concept works.

    • other paul

      Apr 8, 2015 at 6:21 pm

      the long drive guy, jaacob… cant remember his last name.

  19. Greg V

    Apr 8, 2015 at 12:00 pm

    The article sort of begs the question: if high handicap players can’t hit long irons, or fairway woods, or even hybrids, why have them in the bag at all?

    Perhaps the logical set make-up would be: lofted driver, 5 or 7-wood (?), hybrid (?), 7, 9-iron, or 6, 8-iron; and PW, SW, Putter.

    • Brian

      Apr 8, 2015 at 1:57 pm

      Great concept but no body wants to try and market that. Look at some WITB though and you’ll see a whole bunch of different brands and models or iron in the pro’s bag.

      I have considered buying individual irons. 6, 7, 8, 9 and 48, 52, 56 and 60 wedges. I rarely hit a 5 or longer iron. I go to a 3 or 4 hybrid. But I have a 4 and 5 iron sitting in my basement from my Taylormade Rocketbladez Tour set. And I’m 33 with a 113 mph swing speed. I just don’t love hitting long irons. Wish I did!

      • Jack

        Apr 8, 2015 at 11:27 pm

        113 MPH swing speed? You’re either hitting your driver too far and not needing to hit long irons or you’re a terrible ball striker because you are swinging too fast. Most guys who can swing that fast love the long irons since the hybrids go too far. I don’t even swing that fast and my long irons go. It’s all personal preference I suppose, but most people don’t like long irons because they can’t swing the club fast enough to make it go anywhere.

        • Egor

          Apr 9, 2015 at 1:05 am

          You’re making quite a few assumptions about Brian ‘eh?

          I’ll concede that it does sound odd that a 33y/o with 113ss doesn’t like to hit 5i or less, but hitting his driver too far?? Can anyone really hit their driver “too far” and if so, what is “too far”?

          If my two choices are – I hit the driver too far, or.. I’m a terrible ball striker, I’ll take driver too far please and thank you.

        • Lowell

          Apr 10, 2015 at 10:06 am

          We cant assume he is a terrible ball striker because it takes the same impact with a hybrid as it does with a long iron when played correctly. I too often do not use 5 iron on up but I still do carry a 5 and 4 iron in the bag for those occasional long par 3’s. I also carry a 22 degree hybrid which covers my 220-230 yard shots on shorter par 5’s if I have that option. I used to carry a 3 hybrid which I took out of the bag in lieu of a 52 degree gap wedge mostly because I found more use out of the wedges and no the 3 hybrid. I assume Brian still carries a 3 wood as his bag almost mirrored mine and I would often take 3 wood off the tee box. You can carry whatever club make up in your bag if you know your proper distances for each and can manufacture shots for the yardages needed. To each their own. We all just want to hit the green in regulation.

      • Greg V

        Oct 7, 2015 at 4:23 pm

        I only buy individual irons. At present I am playing AP1 6 and 7-iron, and AP2 8-iron to PW.

        Next year I might buy a new 6-iron. The 7-iron to PW will be in the bag for a few years, as will the 54* and 60* wedges.

        By the way, when I walk, I only carry 7 or 8 of the 13 clubs that are in my bag for when I ride a cart. I score about the same.

    • DB

      Apr 10, 2015 at 11:26 am

      Funny you say that. I made almost that exact set for my wife, and it works perfectly. 7 clubs is PLENTY for beginners and many amateurs.

      14-degree driver, 5-wood (22), 6-hybrid (30), 7i, 9i, SW, putter.

      I don’t know why companies like Adams don’t make 7-club sets that are good quality, obviously cheaper than 14-club sets, they are light, easy to carry, etc… Seems like it would be a no-brainer for growing the game. Sell them with a sweet carry bag and promote the fitness aspect. But as Mr. Adams has stated above… they don’t want to sell 7 clubs. They want to sell 14.

      • Bob

        Apr 10, 2015 at 11:36 am

        I play with seven clubs — driver, 17* and 24* hybrid, 6i, 9i, sand wedge and putter. I shoot in the low 80s and break 80 occasionally.

        • DB

          Apr 10, 2015 at 11:47 am

          I totally agree. I play around the same as you, average score is 80. Let’s be honest, I have 14 clubs but at times I have played with significantly less and end up shooting about the same scores.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Hong Kong betting preview: Trio of major champs primed for big week

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LIV Golf is set to begin its fourth event of the season at Hong Kong Golf Club in Hong Kong, China. This marks the first time that LIV Golf will travel to China for an event.

Hong Kong Golf Club is a par 70 measuring 6,710 yards. LIV will be using the “Fanling Course” for the event.

While speaking with Asian Tour player Travis Smyth, he gave me a rundown on what it takes to be successful at Hong Kong Golf Club.

“Hong Kong golf club, it’s pretty old school, like super short and tight. And I, I don’t think it falls into like a bomber’s hand. I think you’ll see a lot of guys hitting it to roughly the same spots on the majority of the holes. There’s a few holes where Bryson will be able to unleash a few but not many. When I played here, I hit Hybrid on Par 4’s off the tee maybe like seven times.”

Travis also said that the tight fairways and penal potential misses will keep the bombers at bay.

“It’s just that sort of course you’re hitting it like anywhere from 220 to 240 off the tee. And then from there you have a range of holes where it’s like kind of some sort of wedge or nine. It’s not very long.”

Around the green game will also be tremendously important at Hong Kong Golf Club.

“The greens are small as well and it’s usually quite hard to get up and down if you miss the greens. Someone like Cameron Smith I could see doing really well there. He played well in the international series. but just someone that’s, you know, pretty dolled in with their, their scoring clubs, he’s probably going to do well there.”

Players dialed in with their game from tee to green with control over the golf ball should fare extremely well.

“You can’t really scramble from the trees either. So, you really just have to. I’d, yeah, just whoever’s the best ball striker that week, you can’t really strap it around and fake it around there. You got to hit it straight. The tree lines are dead, there’s some hazards and stuff. It’s a short, tight quirky course, not what any of these guys are probably used to.”

Despite it being short, don’t be surprised if it gives players some real trouble.

“It should be fun viewing because there’ll be a lot of opportunities. They’ll feel like they can go low around there because it’s short but, you know, you make a few bogeys, and you get quite frustrated, and you start pushing off the tee and find some trouble and stuff. It can eat you up as well.”

Smyth finished 2nd at Hong Kong Golf Club to qualify for the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool.

Past Winners at Hong Kong Golf Club

  • 2023: Ben Campbell (-19)
  • 2022: Wade Ormsby (-17)
  • 2018: Aaron Rai (-17)
  • 2017: Wade Ormsby (-11)
  • 2016: Sam Brazel (-13)
  • 2015: Justin Rose (-19)
  • 2014: Scott Hend (-13)
  • 2013: Miguel Angel Jiminez (-12)

The top of the board once again will be a major threat this week. Jon Rahm is still in search of his first win on LIV and has been knocking at the door in each of his first three starts. Brooks Koepka hasn’t yet contended but is playing steady golf and has yet to shoot a round outside of the 60’s this season. Joaquin Niemann is the hottest player on the planet and has shown no signs of slowing down.

However, on a golf course that can neutralize the big hitters, this is an event that seems a bit more up for grabs than we’ve seen in the first three LIV events.

LIV Golf Stats YTD

 

2024 LIV Hong Kong Picks

Cameron Smith +2000 (Bet365, BetRivers)

It’s been a slow start for Cam Smith this season. In his three starts on LIV, he’s finished T8, T15, T41 and has yet to look like the Cam that is one of the best players in the world. Hong Kong Golf Club should be the perfect course fit to get the former Open Champion out of his slump.

Hong Kong Golf Club is tight off the tee, and many players won’t be able to hit driver. That will neutralize some of the best drivers of the golf ball in the field and propel players like Cam, who are almost unbeatable from fairway to green. Cam’s driver has been a weakness throughout his career, and it’s been especially pronounced this season. He’s tied for 51st in fairways hit thus far on the season. Taking driver out of his hand this week could be exactly what he needs to get on track.

Despite the poor tee balls, Smith still ranks 1st in putting and 5th in birdies made. He’s also a great scrambler, and with small greens at the course, having to get up and down is inevitable. If he can play from the fairway this week, he should have a major advantage in the other facets of the game.

Louis Oosthuizen +2000 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen should be an absolutely perfect fit for Hong Kong Golf Club. The South African has been remarkably consistent over the past few months dating back to the fall, where he won two consecutive DP World Tour events and also finished 2nd at the International Series Oman. In his three LIV starts this year, Louis has finished T8 at LIV Mayakoba, 50th at LIV Las Vegas and T2 at LIV Jeddah.

Louis is relatively short off the tee and that won’t hurt him this week. He is one of the best putters and scrambler on LIV, and his silky-smooth swing looks as dialed in as ever at the moment. He’s yet to win a LIV event, but a victory for Louis seems imminent.

Patrick Reed +5000 (FanDuel)

Patrick Reed is another play who’s yet to win a LIV event but has been a winner throughout his entire career. The former Masters champion should love Hong Kong Golf Club as it will play to his strengths on and around the greens.

Reed played on the Asian Tour this fall and finished T15 at the Hong Kong Open and T7 at the Indonesian Masters. The experience in Asia this season should be a benefit for Reed acclimating to the travel and conditions this week.

The 34-year-old should benefit from taking driver out of his hand and similar to Smith, can beat anyone in the world if the tournament become a short game competition.

*Featured Image and Stats Image courtesy of LIV Golf*

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