Opinion & Analysis

Why it’s hard to make good clubs for bad golfers

Published

9 years ago

Apr 8, 2015

I read some of the 2015 GolfWRX Gear Trials and the comments. Recently, there was a also an analysis of the new Adams Blue line on the site.

The comments seemed to be: “OK, these are for average players. Fine. Let’s get to the real challenge, clubs for very good players.”

I know nothing about the Adams Blue line, have never seen a sample. But the idea that clubs for average players give way to the real challenge of making product for good golfers is, well, backwards.

It’s much harder to make clubs that can perform well for high-handicap golfers than it is for really good players.

That comes from years on the range as a custom fitter and designer of several models. I remember back in 1953 when I cleaned and stored clubs at Tuscorara Golf Club, which was near my residence in Marcellus, N.Y., and had a population of 700 at the time. What I specifically remember is that when I clean sets there were always clubs that hadn’t been hit.

Now, golf equipment was relatively expensive then, as it is now, and I couldn’t understand why people would buy clubs and not use them. For reference, the movie theater in Marcellus showed double headers, $0.15 admission and a bag of very stale popcorn from the machine for a dime. So yes, golf clubs were a luxury.

I remember thinking that maybe some of the clubs just weren’t well designed, and maybe that was why they were seldom used. At the time, I had no clue about the complexities involved it was just a thought that stuck with me.

Take the challenge of designing a set of irons. Historically, you would design a 4 iron and an 8 iron as the transition clubs and fill out the set. So if it’s the old school 3-PW set, or today’s set — 4 iron/hybrid through gap wedge — you have a set of clubs with different lofts, lies, weights, and lengths, all made in a sequence. All of these variables were designed to produce a parabola shape of shots, from the shortest club to the longest club, and the distance between the parabolas was to be consistent. It’s what we call gapping.

When you have all those variables, to achieve an objective of predictable results you must have some constants. In the golf world it’s speed, enough to make each club perform as designed. With the consistency of the hit, it’s the same objective. This is fine for the good player, but not applicable to the higher handicappers. So sets for those players were sold with “more forgiving” heads, but they still required the same striking speed and consistency of better players to obtain the results promised in the sale.

Standing on the range back in the early 90’s, I remember visions of my club cleaning days of the 50’s and the clubs that were never hit. They didn’t perform well enough to get in the lineup. I spent a great deal of time trying to figure how to make clubs for the average player. We made clubs for the good players, but the average market in those days was more of a step-child and I saw it as an opportunity. When we started designing full sets, we did not take the “set” approach, because the target market was higher handicappers.

This is where things changed.

It may not seem like much, but in reality it was backwards thinking. We started with the desired shot, resulting in a club design, then started over for the next one and through the set. The long iron (and now the hybrid) was an individual entity, and when it was done the next club in the set was not required to have the traditional sequence of differences or even look the same. Instead of clubs producing shots, we thought in terms of what the player was trying to achieve and went from the shot back to the club design. There were no traditional standards for lofts, lies, weights, lengths even center of gravity (CG) location.

Even then, what we really wanted to do was make a set of irons totaling about six clubs. We knew the slower speeds and imperfect swings were inefficient, but the buying market was trained on a full set and that’s what golfers wanted.

We wanted to take the longer clubs, which had 3-to-4 degrees difference in loft and slightly different lengths, split the difference, and make one club. We knew that the combination of slower swing speeds and less-than-perfect hits would make that a more useful club, and it would morph into a mix of mid and shorter irons. Except, of course, we were in the business of selling clubs and our idea wasn’t well received. Kind of reminds me of 30 years ago when Tommy Armour tried selling a set of irons all with the same 6-iron length called EQL. There are folks today that will tell you the concept was solid, and you can find same-length sets on the Internet.

A set of Tommy Armour’s EQL irons, all of which were the same length.

Whether they are or not, golf equipment today is marketing. It takes millions of dollars, and no one wants to gamble on a 30-year-old concept that had marginal success. Especially when it won’t be played on the PGA Tour.

The marketing formula features the Tour, getting players to play the product and parlaying that into retail sales. But I’d be remiss if I didn’t remember some of the swings I saw on the range, which were the farthest things from the PGA Tour. They’d fall back, twirl with the left foot doing a dance and I’d think to myself, “OK big boy, let’s see you design a long second-shot club for that!”

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Barney Adams

Barney Adams is the founder of Adams Golf and the inventor of the iconic "Tight Lies" fairway wood. He served as Chairman of the Board for Adams until 2012, when the company was purchased by TaylorMade-Adidas. Adams is one of golf's most distinguished entrepreneurs, receiving honors such as Manufacturing Entrepreneur of the Year by Ernst & Young in 1999 and the 2010 Ernie Sabayrac Award for lifetime contribution to the golf industry by the PGA of America. His journey in the golf industry started as as a club fitter, however, and has the epoxy filled shirts as a testimony to his days as an assembler. Have an equipment question? Adams holds seven patents on club design and has conducted research on every club in the bag. He welcomes your equipment questions through email at [email protected] Adams is now retired from the golf equipment industry, but his passion for the game endures through his writing. He is the author of "The WOW Factor," a book published in 2008 that offers an insider's view of the golf industry and business advice to entrepreneurs, and he continues to contribute articles to outlets like GolfWRX that offer his solutions to grow the game of golf.

31 Comments

linh vat phong thuy

Jul 7, 2017 at 3:12 am

I spent a great deal of time trying to figure how to make clubs for the average player.

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vang ma ha noi

Apr 5, 2017 at 11:54 am

Funny you say that. I made almost that exact set for my wife, and it works perfectly. 7 clubs is PLENTY for beginners and many amateurs.
14-degree driver, 5-wood (22), 6-hybrid (30), 7i, 9i, SW, putter.
I don’t know why companies like Adams don’t make 7-club sets that are good quality, obviously cheaper than 14-club sets, they are light, easy to carry, etc… Seems like it would be a no-brainer for growing the game. Sell them with a sweet carry bag and promote the fitness aspect. But as Mr. Adams has stated above… they don’t want to sell 7 clubs. They want to sell 14.

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tienamphu.com/category/vang-ma

Apr 5, 2017 at 11:53 am

We cant assume he is a terrible ball striker because it takes the same impact with a hybrid as it does with a long iron when played correctly. I too often do not use 5 iron on up but I still do carry a 5 and 4 iron in the bag for those occasional long par 3’s. I also carry a 22 degree hybrid which covers my 220-230 yard shots on shorter par 5’s if I have that option. I used to carry a 3 hybrid which I took out of the bag in lieu of a 52 degree gap wedge mostly because I found more use out of the wedges and no the 3 hybrid. I as

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may photocopy ricoh

Mar 10, 2017 at 10:31 pm

I need 5 wedges to average around 76. I think Phil and myself are the only two people left on the planet playing a 64 degree wedge. For consistency I like to put nearly full swings on my wedges

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JH

Oct 8, 2015 at 12:44 pm

I think the problem is the “tour” mentality. Honestly who cares. Go find me an average golfer who follows the tour like a good player does. Chances are you won’t. The average golfer or high-handicapper, is the guy least likely to follow the sport or even know what is best for him. It doesn’t have to work for the tour. It has to work for the average guy. Until someone makes that gamble and it will pay off, GI clubs won’t benefit anyone.

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golfiend

Apr 16, 2015 at 10:00 pm

i personally believe beginning golfers should learn playing blade irons. Not just because I learned to play golf with blades, but because i’ve tried cavity backs (higher moi) and even super game improvement irons and the club feedback is not always there. The weight ratio (from top half to bottom half of the iron sans shaft) distribution of game improvement irons (and stronger lofts) does not promote a higher launch which is not conducive to someone who “traps” (hit down on) the ball. I guess for the flipper, it would work, but that’s no way to play golf or get better at ball striking. The hybrid as a replacement for long irons is an unqualified success except in windy conditions. Marketing as you say helps to make the golfers feel good about his clubs and his confidence and we should not discount its effect on the golfer from a mental perspective.

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Larry111

Apr 13, 2015 at 11:38 am

Would irons be easier to hit if they didn’t have built in shaft lean?

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Ol deadeye

Apr 11, 2015 at 5:48 pm

Some thoughts. Most players carry 14 clubs but may only use 8or 9 in a round. My old men’s club in Hawaii used to have 7 club tournaments. At most only a one shot variation in average scores. Then 5 club tournament, same result. Finally a 3 club event. One club had to be a putter. The other two, your choice. Almost no drivers appeared. Scores went up by about 2 shots. Mostly by the higher handicappers. And, it was fun. You can “build” your set by knowing your game. Take me, average drive, 225. So I play the gold tees, makes most par 5s about 485. That’s leaves 260. Six iron is 155, lay up to 105. My pitching wedge goes 110. That’s 490 yards. Close enough. Two putts, take my par and move on. On my 6000 yard course par fours average 350 yards or less. That leaves 175. I can’t reliably hit any iron that far so my #4 hybrid comes out. I can hit it it 185 so choke down slightly and I’m center of the green. Two putts then to the par 3. Some are long, 195, some short, 145. My hybrid covers the long ones, 7 iron the others. Oh, but what if I miss a green? I do, a lot. So I carry two wedges, a 54 and 58. Let’s see that’s driver, #4 hybrid, 6,7,PW,54,58, putter. Eight clubs. Covers 90% of holes on my course. I carry 14 so that’s 6 clubs to cover 10% of play. Well, I love my 8 iron and my 4 wood. I’m sure you have your favorites. Club manufacturers are cringing. They would sell you a 25 club set if marketing could convince you that you need that. Oh, there’s the rules of golf. Have a good round.

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Double Mocha Man

Apr 10, 2015 at 9:28 pm

I need 5 wedges to average around 76. I think Phil and myself are the only two people left on the planet playing a 64 degree wedge. For consistency I like to put nearly full swings on my wedges… half swings and less end up as chunks.

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Tom Wishon

Apr 10, 2015 at 6:01 pm

It’s not hard at all to make good performing clubs for high handicappers. No driver would be longer than 43 1/2″, drivers would come with a variety of closed to very closed face angles and be offered in real lofts as high as 15-16*. There would be no fairway woods of lower loft than 17*, fwy sets would offer up to a 9 wood, even 11 wood, and there would be no irons with a loft lower than 30*. And retailers would train and incentivize their sales staff to be NICE and RESPECTFUL to the high handicappers.

Or better yet, there would be no clubs in any retail store or shop for high handicappers and instead, all stores would send the high hdcps to the very best professional custom clubfitter in the area who most certainly would fit and build the clubs to specs to perfectly fit the high hdcp player so he/she could reduce the frequency and severity of their bad shots to see that it is possible to play a little better and enjoy the game a little more.

It is SO EASY to fit and make clubs for high hdcps that will play better for them that the clubs being sold off the rack with their std specs that so much prevent the high hdcp players from playing to the best of their ability and which make it more difficult for the high hdcp player from benefitting as much as they could/should when they do decide to take lessons. Every experienced clubfitter knows this all too well.

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- gorden
  
  Apr 12, 2015 at 12:42 am
  
  I would agree making clubs for the higher handicap player would be easy if you could get them into some lessons first….I think everyone out playing would have a much better time if the beginers would take a few lessons before playing and we all tell the highest handicap players it is 100% ok to bend the rules enough to make the game faster and more fun as they learn.
  
  Reply Report comment
- larrybud
  
  Oct 13, 2015 at 7:06 pm
  
  But that’s the difference, right? I mean, for the mass market, it IS hard to make “generic” clubs that perform well for high handicappers, because it has to be a one size fits all, and higher handicapped players have a higher variety of swings than a low capper.
  
  The low capper generally is pretty close to on plane, and the face is fairly square at impact, and contact is more or less around the center.
  
  But then make a one-size-fits-all club for the guy who either comes across it 15 degrees out to in, or instead of a 1″ radius of impact, he hits it all over the face, it’s going to be much more difficult to do that.
  
  Reply Report comment
Greg V

Apr 10, 2015 at 9:55 am

Check out the Bridgestone Dual Pocket Forged irons.

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Sean

Apr 9, 2015 at 11:01 pm

I really think that building clubs for high handicappers is all that difficult. I think the restrictions of confirming specs are the problem. I really think we need to take into perspective that golf is a game and not a sport. A sport allows unconditional specs until achieving pro status. Take baseball, we have aluminum bats until you go pro. Relax the rules for amateur equipment. Look what DeMarini did for the sport of softball…….

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- Reeves
  
  Apr 19, 2015 at 12:35 am
  
  You can relax the rules all you want but that 5 some of 20 plus handicaps playing in front of you on a Saturday (drinking beer and smoking cigars) all thinking they are one driving range visit away form their invite to the Masters , have to follow every stinking rule or the $5 dollar bet is off.
  
  Reply Report comment
marcel

Apr 9, 2015 at 2:21 am

Barney – as always spot on. the golf is facing one major problem… it wants to grow but with giving impression “it is that easy”… which is not… clubs for high handicappers does not exist – you need to know how to hit a ball and then most clubs (shaft) will do the job…

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other paul

Apr 8, 2015 at 6:24 pm

Always fun to read what Barney writes. Keep it up. Love my tightlies 3W mr. Adams.

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Steve

Apr 8, 2015 at 1:11 pm

High handicap players tend to have more flaws in their game; Faulty grip, posture, swing-plane, etc. A good player can swing essentially any club and make the ball travel a consistent line. A bad player needs a set of clubs and Hogan’s Modern Fundamentals of Golf (and after that a few lessons can help). Learning how to swing a club CANNOT be replaced by spending all of the money in sight.

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Tim

Apr 8, 2015 at 12:17 pm

I believe one of the other editorial contributors to this site has promoted the single length set of golf clubs. I have to say if i could try a set I would but as with all these potentially good ideas without the ability to get it to the masses they fall flat and will never achieve market share enough to prove if the concept works.

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- other paul
  
  Apr 8, 2015 at 6:21 pm
  
  the long drive guy, jaacob… cant remember his last name.
  
  Reply Report comment
Greg V

Apr 8, 2015 at 12:00 pm

The article sort of begs the question: if high handicap players can’t hit long irons, or fairway woods, or even hybrids, why have them in the bag at all?

Perhaps the logical set make-up would be: lofted driver, 5 or 7-wood (?), hybrid (?), 7, 9-iron, or 6, 8-iron; and PW, SW, Putter.

Reply Report comment
- Brian
  
  Apr 8, 2015 at 1:57 pm
  
  Great concept but no body wants to try and market that. Look at some WITB though and you’ll see a whole bunch of different brands and models or iron in the pro’s bag.
  
  I have considered buying individual irons. 6, 7, 8, 9 and 48, 52, 56 and 60 wedges. I rarely hit a 5 or longer iron. I go to a 3 or 4 hybrid. But I have a 4 and 5 iron sitting in my basement from my Taylormade Rocketbladez Tour set. And I’m 33 with a 113 mph swing speed. I just don’t love hitting long irons. Wish I did!
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Jack
    
    Apr 8, 2015 at 11:27 pm
    
    113 MPH swing speed? You’re either hitting your driver too far and not needing to hit long irons or you’re a terrible ball striker because you are swinging too fast. Most guys who can swing that fast love the long irons since the hybrids go too far. I don’t even swing that fast and my long irons go. It’s all personal preference I suppose, but most people don’t like long irons because they can’t swing the club fast enough to make it go anywhere.
    
    Reply Report comment
    - Egor
      
      Apr 9, 2015 at 1:05 am
      
      You’re making quite a few assumptions about Brian ‘eh?
      
      I’ll concede that it does sound odd that a 33y/o with 113ss doesn’t like to hit 5i or less, but hitting his driver too far?? Can anyone really hit their driver “too far” and if so, what is “too far”?
      
      If my two choices are – I hit the driver too far, or.. I’m a terrible ball striker, I’ll take driver too far please and thank you.
      
      Reply Report comment
    - Lowell
      
      Apr 10, 2015 at 10:06 am
      
      We cant assume he is a terrible ball striker because it takes the same impact with a hybrid as it does with a long iron when played correctly. I too often do not use 5 iron on up but I still do carry a 5 and 4 iron in the bag for those occasional long par 3’s. I also carry a 22 degree hybrid which covers my 220-230 yard shots on shorter par 5’s if I have that option. I used to carry a 3 hybrid which I took out of the bag in lieu of a 52 degree gap wedge mostly because I found more use out of the wedges and no the 3 hybrid. I assume Brian still carries a 3 wood as his bag almost mirrored mine and I would often take 3 wood off the tee box. You can carry whatever club make up in your bag if you know your proper distances for each and can manufacture shots for the yardages needed. To each their own. We all just want to hit the green in regulation.
      
      Reply Report comment
  - Greg V
    
    Oct 7, 2015 at 4:23 pm
    
    I only buy individual irons. At present I am playing AP1 6 and 7-iron, and AP2 8-iron to PW.
    
    Next year I might buy a new 6-iron. The 7-iron to PW will be in the bag for a few years, as will the 54* and 60* wedges.
    
    By the way, when I walk, I only carry 7 or 8 of the 13 clubs that are in my bag for when I ride a cart. I score about the same.
    
    Reply Report comment
- DB
  
  Apr 10, 2015 at 11:26 am
  
  Funny you say that. I made almost that exact set for my wife, and it works perfectly. 7 clubs is PLENTY for beginners and many amateurs.
  
  14-degree driver, 5-wood (22), 6-hybrid (30), 7i, 9i, SW, putter.
  
  I don’t know why companies like Adams don’t make 7-club sets that are good quality, obviously cheaper than 14-club sets, they are light, easy to carry, etc… Seems like it would be a no-brainer for growing the game. Sell them with a sweet carry bag and promote the fitness aspect. But as Mr. Adams has stated above… they don’t want to sell 7 clubs. They want to sell 14.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Bob
    
    Apr 10, 2015 at 11:36 am
    
    I play with seven clubs — driver, 17* and 24* hybrid, 6i, 9i, sand wedge and putter. I shoot in the low 80s and break 80 occasionally.
    
    Reply Report comment
    - DB
      
      Apr 10, 2015 at 11:47 am
      
      I totally agree. I play around the same as you, average score is 80. Let’s be honest, I have 14 clubs but at times I have played with significantly less and end up shooting about the same scores.
      
      Reply Report comment

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

1 hour ago

Apr 18, 2024

Terry Koehler

Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

Published

1 hour ago

Apr 18, 2024

GolfWRX Staff

In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

3 days ago

Apr 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.

Past Winners at Harbour Town

2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
2019: CT Pan (-12)
2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
2016: Branden Grace (-9)
2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
Tom Hoge (+1.27)
Corey Conners (+1.16)
Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

Brice Garnett (88.8%)
Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
Brian Harman (+1.89)
Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
Taylor Moore (+1.02)
Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
Corey Conners (+69.0%)
Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.

Course History over past 24 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
Cam Davis (+2.05)
J.T. Poston (+1.69)
Justin Rose (+1.68)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

Shane Lowry
Russell Henley
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Corey Conners
Wyndham Clark
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Matt Fitzpatrick
Cameron Young
Ludvig Aberg

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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