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Why it’s hard to make good clubs for bad golfers

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I read some of the 2015 GolfWRX Gear Trials and the comments. Recently, there was a also an analysis of the new Adams Blue line on the site.

The comments seemed to be: “OK, these are for average players. Fine. Let’s get to the real challenge, clubs for very good players.”

I know nothing about the Adams Blue line, have never seen a sample. But the idea that clubs for average players give way to the real challenge of making product for good golfers is, well, backwards.

It’s much harder to make clubs that can perform well for high-handicap golfers than it is for really good players.

That comes from years on the range as a custom fitter and designer of several models. I remember back in 1953 when I cleaned and stored clubs at Tuscorara Golf Club, which was near my residence in Marcellus, N.Y., and had a population of 700 at the time. What I specifically remember is that when I clean sets there were always clubs that hadn’t been hit.

Now, golf equipment was relatively expensive then, as it is now, and I couldn’t understand why people would buy clubs and not use them. For reference, the movie theater in Marcellus showed double headers, $0.15 admission and a bag of very stale popcorn from the machine for a dime. So yes, golf clubs were a luxury.

I remember thinking that maybe some of the clubs just weren’t well designed, and maybe that was why they were seldom used. At the time, I had no clue about the complexities involved it was just a thought that stuck with me.

Take the challenge of designing a set of irons. Historically, you would design a 4 iron and an 8 iron as the transition clubs and fill out the set. So if it’s the old school 3-PW set, or today’s set — 4 iron/hybrid through gap wedge — you have a set of clubs with different lofts, lies, weights, and lengths, all made in a sequence. All of these variables were designed to produce a parabola shape of shots, from the shortest club to the longest club, and the distance between the parabolas was to be consistent. It’s what we call gapping.

When you have all those variables, to achieve an objective of predictable results you must have some constants. In the golf world it’s speed, enough to make each club perform as designed. With the consistency of the hit, it’s the same objective. This is fine for the good player, but not applicable to the higher handicappers. So sets for those players were sold with “more forgiving” heads, but they still required the same striking speed and consistency of better players to obtain the results promised in the sale.

Standing on the range back in the early 90’s, I remember visions of my club cleaning days of the 50’s and the clubs that were never hit. They didn’t perform well enough to get in the lineup. I spent a great deal of time trying to figure how to make clubs for the average player. We made clubs for the good players, but the average market in those days was more of a step-child and I saw it as an opportunity. When we started designing full sets, we did not take the “set” approach, because the target market was higher handicappers.

This is where things changed.

It may not seem like much, but in reality it was backwards thinking. We started with the desired shot, resulting in a club design, then started over for the next one and through the set. The long iron (and now the hybrid) was an individual entity, and when it was done the next club in the set was not required to have the traditional sequence of differences or even look the same. Instead of clubs producing shots, we thought in terms of what the player was trying to achieve and went from the shot back to the club design. There were no traditional standards for lofts, lies, weights, lengths even center of gravity (CG) location.

Even then, what we really wanted to do was make a set of irons totaling about six clubs. We knew the slower speeds and imperfect swings were inefficient, but the buying market was trained on a full set and that’s what golfers wanted.

We wanted to take the longer clubs, which had 3-to-4 degrees difference in loft and slightly different lengths, split the difference, and make one club. We knew that the combination of slower swing speeds and less-than-perfect hits would make that a more useful club, and it would morph into a mix of mid and shorter irons. Except, of course, we were in the business of selling clubs and our idea wasn’t well received. Kind of reminds me of 30 years ago when Tommy Armour tried selling a set of irons all with the same 6-iron length called EQL. There are folks today that will tell you the concept was solid, and you can find same-length sets on the Internet.

Screen Shot 2015-04-07 at 2.58.06 PM

A set of Tommy Armour’s EQL irons, all of which were the same length.

Whether they are or not, golf equipment today is marketing. It takes millions of dollars, and no one wants to gamble on a 30-year-old concept that had marginal success. Especially when it won’t be played on the PGA Tour.

The marketing formula features the Tour, getting players to play the product and parlaying that into retail sales. But I’d be remiss if I didn’t remember some of the swings I saw on the range, which were the farthest things from the PGA Tour. They’d fall back, twirl with the left foot doing a dance and I’d think to myself, “OK big boy, let’s see you design a long second-shot club for that!”

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Barney Adams is the founder of Adams Golf and the inventor of the iconic "Tight Lies" fairway wood. He served as Chairman of the Board for Adams until 2012, when the company was purchased by TaylorMade-Adidas. Adams is one of golf's most distinguished entrepreneurs, receiving honors such as Manufacturing Entrepreneur of the Year by Ernst & Young in 1999 and the 2010 Ernie Sabayrac Award for lifetime contribution to the golf industry by the PGA of America. His journey in the golf industry started as as a club fitter, however, and has the epoxy filled shirts as a testimony to his days as an assembler. Have an equipment question? Adams holds seven patents on club design and has conducted research on every club in the bag. He welcomes your equipment questions through email at [email protected] Adams is now retired from the golf equipment industry, but his passion for the game endures through his writing. He is the author of "The WOW Factor," a book published in 2008 that offers an insider's view of the golf industry and business advice to entrepreneurs, and he continues to contribute articles to outlets like GolfWRX that offer his solutions to grow the game of golf.

31 Comments

31 Comments

  1. linh vat phong thuy

    Jul 7, 2017 at 3:12 am

    I spent a great deal of time trying to figure how to make clubs for the average player.

  2. vang ma ha noi

    Apr 5, 2017 at 11:54 am

    Funny you say that. I made almost that exact set for my wife, and it works perfectly. 7 clubs is PLENTY for beginners and many amateurs.
    14-degree driver, 5-wood (22), 6-hybrid (30), 7i, 9i, SW, putter.
    I don’t know why companies like Adams don’t make 7-club sets that are good quality, obviously cheaper than 14-club sets, they are light, easy to carry, etc… Seems like it would be a no-brainer for growing the game. Sell them with a sweet carry bag and promote the fitness aspect. But as Mr. Adams has stated above… they don’t want to sell 7 clubs. They want to sell 14.

  3. tienamphu.com/category/vang-ma

    Apr 5, 2017 at 11:53 am

    We cant assume he is a terrible ball striker because it takes the same impact with a hybrid as it does with a long iron when played correctly. I too often do not use 5 iron on up but I still do carry a 5 and 4 iron in the bag for those occasional long par 3’s. I also carry a 22 degree hybrid which covers my 220-230 yard shots on shorter par 5’s if I have that option. I used to carry a 3 hybrid which I took out of the bag in lieu of a 52 degree gap wedge mostly because I found more use out of the wedges and no the 3 hybrid. I as

  4. may photocopy ricoh

    Mar 10, 2017 at 10:31 pm

    I need 5 wedges to average around 76. I think Phil and myself are the only two people left on the planet playing a 64 degree wedge. For consistency I like to put nearly full swings on my wedges

  5. Pingback: Could the clubs make the golfer? - Golf Slot Machine

  6. JH

    Oct 8, 2015 at 12:44 pm

    I think the problem is the “tour” mentality. Honestly who cares. Go find me an average golfer who follows the tour like a good player does. Chances are you won’t. The average golfer or high-handicapper, is the guy least likely to follow the sport or even know what is best for him. It doesn’t have to work for the tour. It has to work for the average guy. Until someone makes that gamble and it will pay off, GI clubs won’t benefit anyone.

  7. golfiend

    Apr 16, 2015 at 10:00 pm

    i personally believe beginning golfers should learn playing blade irons. Not just because I learned to play golf with blades, but because i’ve tried cavity backs (higher moi) and even super game improvement irons and the club feedback is not always there. The weight ratio (from top half to bottom half of the iron sans shaft) distribution of game improvement irons (and stronger lofts) does not promote a higher launch which is not conducive to someone who “traps” (hit down on) the ball. I guess for the flipper, it would work, but that’s no way to play golf or get better at ball striking. The hybrid as a replacement for long irons is an unqualified success except in windy conditions. Marketing as you say helps to make the golfers feel good about his clubs and his confidence and we should not discount its effect on the golfer from a mental perspective.

  8. Pingback: Could the clubs make the golfer?

  9. Larry111

    Apr 13, 2015 at 11:38 am

    Would irons be easier to hit if they didn’t have built in shaft lean?

  10. Ol deadeye

    Apr 11, 2015 at 5:48 pm

    Some thoughts. Most players carry 14 clubs but may only use 8or 9 in a round. My old men’s club in Hawaii used to have 7 club tournaments. At most only a one shot variation in average scores. Then 5 club tournament, same result. Finally a 3 club event. One club had to be a putter. The other two, your choice. Almost no drivers appeared. Scores went up by about 2 shots. Mostly by the higher handicappers. And, it was fun. You can “build” your set by knowing your game. Take me, average drive, 225. So I play the gold tees, makes most par 5s about 485. That’s leaves 260. Six iron is 155, lay up to 105. My pitching wedge goes 110. That’s 490 yards. Close enough. Two putts, take my par and move on. On my 6000 yard course par fours average 350 yards or less. That leaves 175. I can’t reliably hit any iron that far so my #4 hybrid comes out. I can hit it it 185 so choke down slightly and I’m center of the green. Two putts then to the par 3. Some are long, 195, some short, 145. My hybrid covers the long ones, 7 iron the others. Oh, but what if I miss a green? I do, a lot. So I carry two wedges, a 54 and 58. Let’s see that’s driver, #4 hybrid, 6,7,PW,54,58, putter. Eight clubs. Covers 90% of holes on my course. I carry 14 so that’s 6 clubs to cover 10% of play. Well, I love my 8 iron and my 4 wood. I’m sure you have your favorites. Club manufacturers are cringing. They would sell you a 25 club set if marketing could convince you that you need that. Oh, there’s the rules of golf. Have a good round.

  11. Double Mocha Man

    Apr 10, 2015 at 9:28 pm

    I need 5 wedges to average around 76. I think Phil and myself are the only two people left on the planet playing a 64 degree wedge. For consistency I like to put nearly full swings on my wedges… half swings and less end up as chunks.

  12. Tom Wishon

    Apr 10, 2015 at 6:01 pm

    It’s not hard at all to make good performing clubs for high handicappers. No driver would be longer than 43 1/2″, drivers would come with a variety of closed to very closed face angles and be offered in real lofts as high as 15-16*. There would be no fairway woods of lower loft than 17*, fwy sets would offer up to a 9 wood, even 11 wood, and there would be no irons with a loft lower than 30*. And retailers would train and incentivize their sales staff to be NICE and RESPECTFUL to the high handicappers.

    Or better yet, there would be no clubs in any retail store or shop for high handicappers and instead, all stores would send the high hdcps to the very best professional custom clubfitter in the area who most certainly would fit and build the clubs to specs to perfectly fit the high hdcp player so he/she could reduce the frequency and severity of their bad shots to see that it is possible to play a little better and enjoy the game a little more.

    It is SO EASY to fit and make clubs for high hdcps that will play better for them that the clubs being sold off the rack with their std specs that so much prevent the high hdcp players from playing to the best of their ability and which make it more difficult for the high hdcp player from benefitting as much as they could/should when they do decide to take lessons. Every experienced clubfitter knows this all too well.

    • gorden

      Apr 12, 2015 at 12:42 am

      I would agree making clubs for the higher handicap player would be easy if you could get them into some lessons first….I think everyone out playing would have a much better time if the beginers would take a few lessons before playing and we all tell the highest handicap players it is 100% ok to bend the rules enough to make the game faster and more fun as they learn.

    • larrybud

      Oct 13, 2015 at 7:06 pm

      But that’s the difference, right? I mean, for the mass market, it IS hard to make “generic” clubs that perform well for high handicappers, because it has to be a one size fits all, and higher handicapped players have a higher variety of swings than a low capper.

      The low capper generally is pretty close to on plane, and the face is fairly square at impact, and contact is more or less around the center.

      But then make a one-size-fits-all club for the guy who either comes across it 15 degrees out to in, or instead of a 1″ radius of impact, he hits it all over the face, it’s going to be much more difficult to do that.

  13. Greg V

    Apr 10, 2015 at 9:55 am

    Check out the Bridgestone Dual Pocket Forged irons.

  14. Sean

    Apr 9, 2015 at 11:01 pm

    I really think that building clubs for high handicappers is all that difficult. I think the restrictions of confirming specs are the problem. I really think we need to take into perspective that golf is a game and not a sport. A sport allows unconditional specs until achieving pro status. Take baseball, we have aluminum bats until you go pro. Relax the rules for amateur equipment. Look what DeMarini did for the sport of softball…….

    • Reeves

      Apr 19, 2015 at 12:35 am

      You can relax the rules all you want but that 5 some of 20 plus handicaps playing in front of you on a Saturday (drinking beer and smoking cigars) all thinking they are one driving range visit away form their invite to the Masters , have to follow every stinking rule or the $5 dollar bet is off.

  15. marcel

    Apr 9, 2015 at 2:21 am

    Barney – as always spot on. the golf is facing one major problem… it wants to grow but with giving impression “it is that easy”… which is not… clubs for high handicappers does not exist – you need to know how to hit a ball and then most clubs (shaft) will do the job…

  16. other paul

    Apr 8, 2015 at 6:24 pm

    Always fun to read what Barney writes. Keep it up. Love my tightlies 3W mr. Adams.

  17. Steve

    Apr 8, 2015 at 1:11 pm

    High handicap players tend to have more flaws in their game; Faulty grip, posture, swing-plane, etc. A good player can swing essentially any club and make the ball travel a consistent line. A bad player needs a set of clubs and Hogan’s Modern Fundamentals of Golf (and after that a few lessons can help). Learning how to swing a club CANNOT be replaced by spending all of the money in sight.

  18. Tim

    Apr 8, 2015 at 12:17 pm

    I believe one of the other editorial contributors to this site has promoted the single length set of golf clubs. I have to say if i could try a set I would but as with all these potentially good ideas without the ability to get it to the masses they fall flat and will never achieve market share enough to prove if the concept works.

    • other paul

      Apr 8, 2015 at 6:21 pm

      the long drive guy, jaacob… cant remember his last name.

  19. Greg V

    Apr 8, 2015 at 12:00 pm

    The article sort of begs the question: if high handicap players can’t hit long irons, or fairway woods, or even hybrids, why have them in the bag at all?

    Perhaps the logical set make-up would be: lofted driver, 5 or 7-wood (?), hybrid (?), 7, 9-iron, or 6, 8-iron; and PW, SW, Putter.

    • Brian

      Apr 8, 2015 at 1:57 pm

      Great concept but no body wants to try and market that. Look at some WITB though and you’ll see a whole bunch of different brands and models or iron in the pro’s bag.

      I have considered buying individual irons. 6, 7, 8, 9 and 48, 52, 56 and 60 wedges. I rarely hit a 5 or longer iron. I go to a 3 or 4 hybrid. But I have a 4 and 5 iron sitting in my basement from my Taylormade Rocketbladez Tour set. And I’m 33 with a 113 mph swing speed. I just don’t love hitting long irons. Wish I did!

      • Jack

        Apr 8, 2015 at 11:27 pm

        113 MPH swing speed? You’re either hitting your driver too far and not needing to hit long irons or you’re a terrible ball striker because you are swinging too fast. Most guys who can swing that fast love the long irons since the hybrids go too far. I don’t even swing that fast and my long irons go. It’s all personal preference I suppose, but most people don’t like long irons because they can’t swing the club fast enough to make it go anywhere.

        • Egor

          Apr 9, 2015 at 1:05 am

          You’re making quite a few assumptions about Brian ‘eh?

          I’ll concede that it does sound odd that a 33y/o with 113ss doesn’t like to hit 5i or less, but hitting his driver too far?? Can anyone really hit their driver “too far” and if so, what is “too far”?

          If my two choices are – I hit the driver too far, or.. I’m a terrible ball striker, I’ll take driver too far please and thank you.

        • Lowell

          Apr 10, 2015 at 10:06 am

          We cant assume he is a terrible ball striker because it takes the same impact with a hybrid as it does with a long iron when played correctly. I too often do not use 5 iron on up but I still do carry a 5 and 4 iron in the bag for those occasional long par 3’s. I also carry a 22 degree hybrid which covers my 220-230 yard shots on shorter par 5’s if I have that option. I used to carry a 3 hybrid which I took out of the bag in lieu of a 52 degree gap wedge mostly because I found more use out of the wedges and no the 3 hybrid. I assume Brian still carries a 3 wood as his bag almost mirrored mine and I would often take 3 wood off the tee box. You can carry whatever club make up in your bag if you know your proper distances for each and can manufacture shots for the yardages needed. To each their own. We all just want to hit the green in regulation.

      • Greg V

        Oct 7, 2015 at 4:23 pm

        I only buy individual irons. At present I am playing AP1 6 and 7-iron, and AP2 8-iron to PW.

        Next year I might buy a new 6-iron. The 7-iron to PW will be in the bag for a few years, as will the 54* and 60* wedges.

        By the way, when I walk, I only carry 7 or 8 of the 13 clubs that are in my bag for when I ride a cart. I score about the same.

    • DB

      Apr 10, 2015 at 11:26 am

      Funny you say that. I made almost that exact set for my wife, and it works perfectly. 7 clubs is PLENTY for beginners and many amateurs.

      14-degree driver, 5-wood (22), 6-hybrid (30), 7i, 9i, SW, putter.

      I don’t know why companies like Adams don’t make 7-club sets that are good quality, obviously cheaper than 14-club sets, they are light, easy to carry, etc… Seems like it would be a no-brainer for growing the game. Sell them with a sweet carry bag and promote the fitness aspect. But as Mr. Adams has stated above… they don’t want to sell 7 clubs. They want to sell 14.

      • Bob

        Apr 10, 2015 at 11:36 am

        I play with seven clubs — driver, 17* and 24* hybrid, 6i, 9i, sand wedge and putter. I shoot in the low 80s and break 80 occasionally.

        • DB

          Apr 10, 2015 at 11:47 am

          I totally agree. I play around the same as you, average score is 80. Let’s be honest, I have 14 clubs but at times I have played with significantly less and end up shooting about the same scores.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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