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2022 Mauritius Open: Betting Picks & Selections

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Rather like Ewen Ferguson in Denmark, last weekend saw Adrian Otaegui mugged by a much-improved performance by the eventual winner, this time at the Alfred Dunhill at Leopard Creek.

Take nothing away from either Oliver Wilson or Ockie Strydom, but every so often golf reminds you how frustrating a game it can be, even if making a profit for the week.

One more proper betting event before the novelty of the PNC Championship, and it’s over to the Mauritius Open to give a boost before the delights of the PNC Championship and a well-deserved break.

European golf fans have not seen the Mont Choisy golf course before, but it looks absolutely stunning. It may be without the wildlife of Leopard Creek, but the course, on the island’s north, is breath-taking.

 

There are few clues to the type of player required for this week’s test and potentially we can look at the designer, Peter Matkovich, who also designed the Heritage course used for the 2015, 2017 and 2019 running of this event, and at the opposite end of the isle.

The last time Mauritius held its championship, Rasmus Hojgaard won the first of his three DP World trophies, beating Renato Paratore and Antoine Rozner in a play-off, whilst both the previous Heritage winners, Dylan Frittelli and George Coetzee also won via a play-off. That may be something or nothing, but check out prices for an unusual four-timer on Matkovich courses.

Coming off a trio of decent graded South African events, it may be prudent to be in form, or at least with confidence in your game, as both Hojgaard and Frittelli used almost polar opposite methods to achieve their victories.

The then 19-year-old ranked top-10 off the tee but outside the top 45 in greens found, whereas Frittelli ranked highly for greens, and had he putted better than his 35th rank, would surely not have needed extra holes to beat Arjun Atwal.

We will go to war with just three selections in a hard-to-read event, but hopefully with some justification for each.

Yes, yes, I know, but Tom McKibbin I have to be with when most big names are not around.

Of course, full respect to both Thomas Detry and Dean Burmester, but when seeing combined odds of around 85/40 for these two, we have to look further down.

The Belgian deserves to be right up the top of the betting market, but it’s certainly not my game to be taking around 11/2 for a player that has never won on the European/DP World Tour or co-sanctioned event, and whilst I am a long-term fan of the South African, his focus is surely making the most of his PGA Tour card in 2023.

19-year-old (20in a week’s time) McKibbin is going to be a superstar.

I covered the young player’s claims in the preview for the Joburg Open. However, as a synopsis, we have a previous top-class junior and amateur playing out of Rory McIlroy’s home club, Holywood, who Padraig Harrington says will “win quick.”

A constant contender throughout his first year on the Challenge Tour, the Northern Irishman’s first three events at the top level have been more than satisfactory.

Whilst the figures put up on the South African swing need ‘careful’ interpreting, the finishes do not. 18th, 15th and 13th over the last three weeks, the last two (at the long Blair Atholl and last week at Leopard Creek) see him rank highly for greens-in-reg, perfect here. Want to be a bit cynical? Okay, scroll down to when he was 10th at Galgorm Castle in August, and witness a field-topping performance off the tee and a ranking of 4th for tee-to-green.

Put that in your calculations when reading that, in his opinion, he hasn’t played that great!

McKibbin could make many people look silly if he cannot make an impact over the next 12 months, but I reckon they/we are safe.

There is a theme running through many of the top finishers here, with Crans, Kenya, Valderrama and Qatar featuring heavily alongside the more obvious Joburg and Tshwane events, a series of connections that lead to a much more speculative wager.

Take a punt with Swede Jens Fahrbring, an impossible-to-read player, but one who can pop up when least expected, and whose best form might see him challenge for a top-10 at least.

The 38-year-old journeyman constantly flits between the two European tours, winning two events, in 2013 and 2015, at Challenge Tour level – in Norway and the Czech Republic – but again had to battle through the six-round Q-school to gain his card for 2023.

He made an immediate impact back at the top level with a third place finish at the South African Open, playing in the final group before succumbing by a couple of shots to Lawrence, a previous winner at Joburg and Crans.

The Swede lost a play-off for the Kenya Open at Muthaiga in 2018 (winner Lorenzo Gagli was runner-up at Crans in 2019), leaning towards a connection with Kurt Kitayama, winner of this week’s event in 2018 and runner-up at Karen, whilst Lawrence was also a silver medalist at Muthaiga to Ashun Wu, 6th at Crans and 7th at the Dom Pedro, one of Coetzee’s favoured tracks!

While I’m on a roll, Fahrbring’s 10th at the 2020 British Masters at Close House was behind previous Mauritius play-off combatants Paratore and Hojgaard and third-placed Justin Harding (winner in Kenya and Qatar).

I’ll fully admit I have no idea how he will play this week, and I reckon nor does he, but it’s clear his driving is to blame for much of what might be stopping him from being a consistently good golfer. He’ll know that, though, and a slight improvement off the tee may be enough to grab a nice profit in some way.

The improving David Ravetto was awfully tempting, but he’s in that 2023 preview and that will have to do for now, so row along with improving Nathan Kimsey for the last leg of a small staking week.

The Lincolnshire player has certainly taken his time showing his best on the main tours after an impressive amateur career.

A member of the best of home team events, Kimsey was selected for the 2013 Walker Cup alongside the likes of Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan Smith and Callum Shinkwin, halving his first day match against a certain Justin Thomas.

Bubbling under the top level, the now 29-year-old became the first player ever to come through every stage of Q-school and win the final stage, in the process beating Eddie Pepperell and Tom Lewis to the hard-earned gold medal.

As with many a ‘future star’, things haven’t always worked out, but 2022 has certainly been his year with a play-off win at Le Vaudreuil (an event that Kenyan winner Aaron Rai also won) preceding three top-six finishes before a victory at the Challenge Tour finale meant he gained champion status.

Past winners of the Challenge Tour Order of Merit that have won at the top level include JB Hansen, Jordan Smith, ‘Beef’ Johnston and Tommy Fleetwood, so whilst Kimsey might have a bit of work to do, he is another to have impressed in the three co-sanctioned events in South Africa.

Lying in fourth place at the halfway stage in Joburg, a poor third round led to an overall 13th place finish, whilst again he was good to halfway (16th) at Blair Atholl, a course far too long for him. Last week, he again caught the eye, moving from 31st place after the opening round to lie in second place at halfway.

That Friday round was spoiled only by a final hole bogey, the other 17 holes comprising two eagles and five birdies, and it was maybe a reaction to that impressive outing that caused a third round 74, moving in the wrong direction.

With nothing dropping on payday, Kimsey impressed with his final nine holes, recording four birdies in five holes before a late bogey saw him post a 3-under 69 to finish just outside of the front page.

Full of confidence and playing well, this short track means the longer hitters won’t overawe him. Kimsey can exploit some excellent recent performances with the flat stick, something very much lacking at this lower level of the DP World Tour.

Recommended Bets:

  • Tom McKibbin – Win/Top-5
  • Nathan Kimsey – Win/Top-5
  • Jens Fahrbring – Win/Top-5/Top-20
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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