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2022 Joburg Open: Betting Tips & Selections

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And that was the DP World Tour season over.

And here is the DP World Tour season beginning.

Just a few days after Jon Rahm produced an exhibition display to beat a stellar field in Dubai (and earn less ranking points than Adam Svensson did at the RSM), the tour starts its 2023 season with a co-sanctioned Joburg Open, a mixed field of the best of the Sunshine Tour, some European stalwarts, and others that might well not bother turning up.

Viewers will not have seen Houghton GC for many years, but in the years of hosting the Dunhill Championship (2000-2004) the names Adam Scott, Charl Schwartzel and Justin Rose call for the halcyon days of the tour in South Africa. There are very few in this field that could reach that major-winning standard, and it will be of interest to see if the internationals can wrest away the title from the home contingent, something they could not do when that event turned to Leopard Creek, the Springboks winning seven from the last ten.

The Nicklaus course now hosts the Joburg Open, where in 14 runnings over various courses, home players have won nine and been out of the runner-up spot just twice.

Back to the Dunhill and it’s most recent winner, Christiaan Bezhuidenhout, easily the most likley victor this week.

Like many of the more promising youngsters in South Africa, Bez’s career starts with early victories on the Big Easy Tour and has progressed ever since.

Although with just four wins to his name at this level, the 28-year-old has built his reputation on a stellar short game, something that enabled him to win at tricky Valderrama by an incredible six shots, before going back-to-back at Leopard Creek and the Gary Player GC, to win two of his home country’s most prestigious events.

Having spent much of the last two years inside the world’s top 50, a series of acceptable rather than impressive results has seen him slip to number 72 but he will surely see this as a chance to get going in the right direction again.

Clearly Bez likes Gary Player designed tracks, and it may be no coincidence that his best recent effort was last time out at the Nedbank (held at the GPGC), but like Nicklaus, Player asks questions of the golfer, and with Bez having a short game at a level higher than the majority of these, it is easy to see him thrive here.

Stats on the recent PGA events are very mixed, but he was third in greens-in-reg and eighth in putting at the John Deere – a course that requires low scoring and a bogey-avoiding round – and he was again top-10 for the flat stick stats at Sedgefield and at the BMW, the penultimate FedEX Cup event.

The mention of that lucrative title certainly puts Bez in a different league to his rivals this week and, having relished the return home a couple of weeks ago, can continue that form and take a win into the 2023 PGA season.

Despite losing strokes off the tee at the Gary Player, Bez ranked 11th for tee-to-green, 4th for around-the-green and top 20 for putting. Add that to his figures when playing at home since 2020 – 1/15/1/1/6/5 – and anything bigger than 6/1 looks worth a pop.

Should Bez get beaten, both George Coetzee and Thriston Lawrence are clearly the biggest dangers, especially given their win records compared to Hennie Du Plessis, Oliver Bekker and Louis De Jager.

Coetzee loves it when dropped back from the DP World Tour and has already won twice when arriving back from either the Korn Ferry or European tours, but he seems happier in weaker fields where he is favourite and can dominate.

However, Lawrence, who, with a win last year finally lived up to some big early hype, won his first true DP World event at Crans after running-up at Kenya – both significant moves towards this event.

Off the boil for a while, he bounced back to form when sixth at potentially linkable Valderrama, before an eventual 15th at the Nedbank disguises that he was third going into Sunday.

19th off-the-tee for the season, the 25-year-old backs that up with top-30 for approaches, tee-to-green and greens-in-regulation, with 18th for putts-per-greens-in-reg.

This is, of course, a huge drop in class from the DP World Tour Championship last week and on overall stats, he looks an each-way play to nothing.

It would be surprising if one of the top lot were not to win, so I’ll take just one, far more unexposed, player to grab a place on the first couple of pages of the board.

Deon Germishuys was a tempter after an excellent Challenge Tour season, but perhaps he’s best left as a ‘follow’ throughout 2023. Instead, take a chance with Tom McKibbin, a name that should be on everyone’s list going into 2023, 2024, and beyond.

Coming from Holywood brings a sense of foreboding, as surely he will rarely escape the comparisons to that Northern Irish town’s most famous son, Rory McIlroy. The 19-year-old isn’t at all fussed, though, telling Irish Golfer, “I try not to read much about myself or anything like that. I’ve heard the comparison since I’ve been nine or 10 years old, so if anything, it’s got a little old now.”

Ignore that and we have one promising player, and one that has broadcasted his ability for a few years, despite his current age.

An outstanding junior and amateur, McKibbin had verbally agreed a move to the University of Florida before Covid ruined those plans and, it seemed, the 2021 Walker Cup, an event he was almost certain to be selected for.

Again, this is a cool head on young shoulders – “It meant I got off to a bit of a head-start in pro golf. I don’t think Walker Cup would’ve been much of a benefit and I haven’t really thought much about it since.”

So, let’s talk about the play.

In his first year with limited status and invites, the JMC-managed player recorded a 12th and 16th at Challenge Tour level before a 26th place at the higher level at Galgorm Castle (11th and 20th after the first two rounds).

That gave McKibbin entry into a few of the better Challenge Tour events, and he has taken advantage in style.

The beginning of the year saw the traditional exodus of trophy-seekers to South Africa, and McKibbin took a lead into the final day of the Cape Town Open before finishing in third place – “I played fine, did the same things I did the first three days, it just wasn’t meant to be. I didn’t tense up or anything like that. I thought I did the right things. It just didn’t pay off.”

A week later, he finished seventh after a level-par Sunday would never be enough to exploit an overnight position in the final group, but the experience would be yet another notch on the post.

The second half of the year was to be McKibbin’s highlight, with 14 events played from July onwards, rewarding him with six top-10s, including an almost repeat effort at Glagorm Castle, and three top-20 finishes.

Latterly, sixth place at the Challenge Tour Grand Final would leave him in 10th place on the CT rankings and a full DP World Tour card, something he can exploit before the bigger events next year.

Mentored by Rory, with Chris Selfridge – ex-professional and ex-caddy of Ryan Fox – on the bag – “It obviously costs money getting a top caddie like him but I think you’ve got to do it right if you want to get something really good out of it in the end. No point not investing in yourself and ending up in the same spot in five, 10 years’ time,” and with one stats line that reads ‘overall stats leader’ at Galgorm, McKibbin is something special.

It may take a few years, as it did Thriston Lawrence, to make a real mark, but it will come. Why not this week?

Other to note for big performances are Oliver Hundeboll, winner in this part of the world on the Challenge Tour last year and fifth at Fairmont at the Hero Open, and Casey Jarvis, a multi-decorated junior who in a short professional career has proven too good for lesser grade and has improved in contention throughout the year, finishing runner-up to Coetzee at the South African PGA at the beginning of the month.

I’m expecting the trophy to be lifted by one of the more obvious types, but eyes down the board to see how some of the youngsters get on, for they will be winning soon enough.

Reccomended Bets:

  • Christiaan Bezhuidenhout – Win
  • Thriston Lawrence – Each Way
  • Tom McKibbin – Top-20
  • Oliver Hundeboll – Top-20
  • Casey Jarvis – Top-20
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Whats in the Bag

Maverick McNealy WITB 2024 (July)

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Driver: TaylorMade Qi10 “Dot” (10.5 degrees)
Shaft: Graphite Design Tour AD XC 6 TX

3-wood: TaylorMade Stealth 2 (16.5 degrees)
Shaft: Fujikura Ventus Black 7 X

7-wood: TaylorMade Stealth 2 (21 degrees)
Shaft: Fujikura Ventus Red 8 X

Irons: TaylorMade “Proto” (4), TaylorMade P7TW (5-9)
Shafts: True Temper Dynamic Gold Tour Issue X100

Wedges: Titleist Vokey Design SM10 (46-10F, 50-08F, 54-08M), Vokey Design WedgeWorks (58-L @59)
Shafts: True Temper Dynamic Gold Tour Issue S400

Putters: Toulon Design Prototype

Ball: Titleist Pro V1x

Grips: Golf Pride MCC

Check out more in-hand photos of McNealy’s clubs here.

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Whats in the Bag

Sam Burns WITB 2024 (July)

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Driver: Callaway Paradym Triple Diamond S (9 degrees @10)
Shaft: Fujikura Ventus Blue 7 TX

3-wood: Callaway Paradym Ai Smoke Triple Diamond T (15 degrees @16)
Shaft: Mitsubishi Tensei 1K Black 75 TX

Hybrid: Callaway Apex UW (21 degrees)
Shaft: Fujikura Ventus Blue 8 X

Irons: Callaway Apex TCB ’24 (4-PW)
Shafts: Project X 6.5 (4-PW)

Wedges: Titleist Vokey Design SM10 (50-12F, 56-14F @55, 60-08M)
Shafts: True Temper Dynamic Gold S400 Tour Issue (56, 60)

Putter: Odyssey Ai-One #7SB

Grips: Golf Pride Tour Velvet Align

Ball: Callaway Chrome Tour X

Check out more in-hand photos of Sam Burns’ WITB in the forums.

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Equipment

Wesley Bryan on using 2 drivers last week and his “oopsie” hybrid

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Editor’s note: This is an excerpt from an article our Andrew Tursky filed for PGATour.com’s Equipment Report. Head over to PGATour.com to read the full piece.

It’s been well-documented that Bryan uses two 4-irons in his golf bag – including a Takomo 101U Driving Iron, and a Titleist T200 – but that’s not the only notable oddity throughout his bag.

As Bryan revealed on Wednesday, he actually played in last week’s Barracuda Championship with two drivers: a Callaway Paradym Ai Smoke Triple Diamond Max, which has been his gamer throughout 2024, and a new Titleist GT2 driver. According to Bryan, the dual-driver setup allowed him to work the ball both ways off the tee more easily.

“One was a little more friendly to draw, and one was a little more friendly to fade,” Bryan said.

This week at the 3M Open, however, Bryan says he’s sticking with just one driver: the Paradym Ai Smoke Triple Diamond Max, which he enjoys for its forgiveness, especially on shots that he misses on the toe of the face.

“The reason I like this driver so much is… a lot of guys hit the ball in the middle of the club face; and, yes, that’s probably the way you’re supposed to hit driver. I try to utilize a lot of the face,” Bryan said jokingly. “You see…my tee marks go anywhere from (the center of the face) all the way to over here (on the toe of the face). So I like to utilize about an inch and a half of the club face here. The forgiveness on the toe of this driver is second to none, and again, I hit it pretty poor, as you guys know, off the tee most of the time, although it’s getting a lot better. This driver offers a lot of forgiveness.”

In addition to the driver movement at the top end of his setup, Bryan has also introduced a new Callaway Paradym Ai Smoke Max 3-wood into his lineup to match up with his driver.

“I had a (TaylorMade) Stealth 3-wood in there for a while, but I enjoyed the Ai Smoke driver so much that I got Johnny Thompson (a Callaway Tour rep) out here to build up a 3-wood as similar as possible,” Bryan explained. “This club was used just yesterday in a round to take some money off of Tom Whitney and Zach Johnson on the final hole. I drove it in the hazard, which is obviously not uncommon. Dropped it on a side hill in the rough from 265 yards, hit it to 10 feet… and made birdie the hard way. So this club, I’ve really been enjoying it; it’s been in the bag for about three weeks now.”

Bryan also uses a TaylorMade Stealth 2 hybrid, which interestingly ended up in his bag by accident last year.

“[My hybrid] was built just as a backup while I was waiting for my clubs to arrive [at the John Deere Classic last year], and I needed stuff I could go play the pro-am with, so this was just kind of an ‘oopsie’ hybrid… it turns out I love it. It’s been in the bag ever since.”

 

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Head over to PGATour.com to read the full piece.

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