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2022 Mauritius Open: Betting Picks & Selections

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Rather like Ewen Ferguson in Denmark, last weekend saw Adrian Otaegui mugged by a much-improved performance by the eventual winner, this time at the Alfred Dunhill at Leopard Creek.

Take nothing away from either Oliver Wilson or Ockie Strydom, but every so often golf reminds you how frustrating a game it can be, even if making a profit for the week.

One more proper betting event before the novelty of the PNC Championship, and it’s over to the Mauritius Open to give a boost before the delights of the PNC Championship and a well-deserved break.

European golf fans have not seen the Mont Choisy golf course before, but it looks absolutely stunning. It may be without the wildlife of Leopard Creek, but the course, on the island’s north, is breath-taking.

 

There are few clues to the type of player required for this week’s test and potentially we can look at the designer, Peter Matkovich, who also designed the Heritage course used for the 2015, 2017 and 2019 running of this event, and at the opposite end of the isle.

The last time Mauritius held its championship, Rasmus Hojgaard won the first of his three DP World trophies, beating Renato Paratore and Antoine Rozner in a play-off, whilst both the previous Heritage winners, Dylan Frittelli and George Coetzee also won via a play-off. That may be something or nothing, but check out prices for an unusual four-timer on Matkovich courses.

Coming off a trio of decent graded South African events, it may be prudent to be in form, or at least with confidence in your game, as both Hojgaard and Frittelli used almost polar opposite methods to achieve their victories.

The then 19-year-old ranked top-10 off the tee but outside the top 45 in greens found, whereas Frittelli ranked highly for greens, and had he putted better than his 35th rank, would surely not have needed extra holes to beat Arjun Atwal.

We will go to war with just three selections in a hard-to-read event, but hopefully with some justification for each.

Yes, yes, I know, but Tom McKibbin I have to be with when most big names are not around.

Of course, full respect to both Thomas Detry and Dean Burmester, but when seeing combined odds of around 85/40 for these two, we have to look further down.

The Belgian deserves to be right up the top of the betting market, but it’s certainly not my game to be taking around 11/2 for a player that has never won on the European/DP World Tour or co-sanctioned event, and whilst I am a long-term fan of the South African, his focus is surely making the most of his PGA Tour card in 2023.

19-year-old (20in a week’s time) McKibbin is going to be a superstar.

I covered the young player’s claims in the preview for the Joburg Open. However, as a synopsis, we have a previous top-class junior and amateur playing out of Rory McIlroy’s home club, Holywood, who Padraig Harrington says will “win quick.”

A constant contender throughout his first year on the Challenge Tour, the Northern Irishman’s first three events at the top level have been more than satisfactory.

Whilst the figures put up on the South African swing need ‘careful’ interpreting, the finishes do not. 18th, 15th and 13th over the last three weeks, the last two (at the long Blair Atholl and last week at Leopard Creek) see him rank highly for greens-in-reg, perfect here. Want to be a bit cynical? Okay, scroll down to when he was 10th at Galgorm Castle in August, and witness a field-topping performance off the tee and a ranking of 4th for tee-to-green.

Put that in your calculations when reading that, in his opinion, he hasn’t played that great!

McKibbin could make many people look silly if he cannot make an impact over the next 12 months, but I reckon they/we are safe.

There is a theme running through many of the top finishers here, with Crans, Kenya, Valderrama and Qatar featuring heavily alongside the more obvious Joburg and Tshwane events, a series of connections that lead to a much more speculative wager.

Take a punt with Swede Jens Fahrbring, an impossible-to-read player, but one who can pop up when least expected, and whose best form might see him challenge for a top-10 at least.

The 38-year-old journeyman constantly flits between the two European tours, winning two events, in 2013 and 2015, at Challenge Tour level – in Norway and the Czech Republic – but again had to battle through the six-round Q-school to gain his card for 2023.

He made an immediate impact back at the top level with a third place finish at the South African Open, playing in the final group before succumbing by a couple of shots to Lawrence, a previous winner at Joburg and Crans.

The Swede lost a play-off for the Kenya Open at Muthaiga in 2018 (winner Lorenzo Gagli was runner-up at Crans in 2019), leaning towards a connection with Kurt Kitayama, winner of this week’s event in 2018 and runner-up at Karen, whilst Lawrence was also a silver medalist at Muthaiga to Ashun Wu, 6th at Crans and 7th at the Dom Pedro, one of Coetzee’s favoured tracks!

While I’m on a roll, Fahrbring’s 10th at the 2020 British Masters at Close House was behind previous Mauritius play-off combatants Paratore and Hojgaard and third-placed Justin Harding (winner in Kenya and Qatar).

I’ll fully admit I have no idea how he will play this week, and I reckon nor does he, but it’s clear his driving is to blame for much of what might be stopping him from being a consistently good golfer. He’ll know that, though, and a slight improvement off the tee may be enough to grab a nice profit in some way.

The improving David Ravetto was awfully tempting, but he’s in that 2023 preview and that will have to do for now, so row along with improving Nathan Kimsey for the last leg of a small staking week.

The Lincolnshire player has certainly taken his time showing his best on the main tours after an impressive amateur career.

A member of the best of home team events, Kimsey was selected for the 2013 Walker Cup alongside the likes of Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan Smith and Callum Shinkwin, halving his first day match against a certain Justin Thomas.

Bubbling under the top level, the now 29-year-old became the first player ever to come through every stage of Q-school and win the final stage, in the process beating Eddie Pepperell and Tom Lewis to the hard-earned gold medal.

As with many a ‘future star’, things haven’t always worked out, but 2022 has certainly been his year with a play-off win at Le Vaudreuil (an event that Kenyan winner Aaron Rai also won) preceding three top-six finishes before a victory at the Challenge Tour finale meant he gained champion status.

Past winners of the Challenge Tour Order of Merit that have won at the top level include JB Hansen, Jordan Smith, ‘Beef’ Johnston and Tommy Fleetwood, so whilst Kimsey might have a bit of work to do, he is another to have impressed in the three co-sanctioned events in South Africa.

Lying in fourth place at the halfway stage in Joburg, a poor third round led to an overall 13th place finish, whilst again he was good to halfway (16th) at Blair Atholl, a course far too long for him. Last week, he again caught the eye, moving from 31st place after the opening round to lie in second place at halfway.

That Friday round was spoiled only by a final hole bogey, the other 17 holes comprising two eagles and five birdies, and it was maybe a reaction to that impressive outing that caused a third round 74, moving in the wrong direction.

With nothing dropping on payday, Kimsey impressed with his final nine holes, recording four birdies in five holes before a late bogey saw him post a 3-under 69 to finish just outside of the front page.

Full of confidence and playing well, this short track means the longer hitters won’t overawe him. Kimsey can exploit some excellent recent performances with the flat stick, something very much lacking at this lower level of the DP World Tour.

Recommended Bets:

  • Tom McKibbin – Win/Top-5
  • Nathan Kimsey – Win/Top-5
  • Jens Fahrbring – Win/Top-5/Top-20
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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