Opinion & Analysis
The Wedge Guy: How important is the fairway?
I know you all expect me to always write about wedges and wedge play, but my lifetime in golf and 40 years in the industry has caused me to think deeply and investigate all areas of playing better golf. So, today I want to share some thinking about your tee shots that might be a bit different.
My premise is simple and verifiable–golfers of all skill levels are much better with their approach shots from the fairway than from the rough.
I know, “chicks dig the long ball”, but paychecks dig the straight ball. Let’s go to the PGA Tour stats to see just how much.
For this illustration, I picked Seamus Power, who is currently 50th in greens in regulation at 69.25 percent—one of the better iron players obviously. But he’s actually better than most from the rough, ranking 13th in proximity to the hole on those shots. But even so, let’s dig deeper to see just how important it is for him to hit the fairway.
Mr. Power’s average distance from the hole on all shots from 125-150 yards is 21.1 feet…but from the rough that average is twice as far–40.4 feet. To put that in perspective, he averages less than that–under 39 feet–on his approaches from 200-225. Let’s assume Mr. Power could hit every fairway if he would only back off on his drives by 25 yards. What would that mean to him?
Well, his fairways hit success is 59 percent, so that would mean he would have 20-25 birdie putts a tournament that are 15- 20-feet shorter than what he’s getting now. If you look at his putting and scrambling stats, that could translate to 4-5 more birdies per tournament and maybe 3 to 4 fewer bogeys–up to two strokes per round.
So, he’s made $209,000 this season, ranking him 181st. His scoring average of 71.264 ranks him 129th. That’s only four strokes per tournament behind Colin Morikawa, who’s made over $3 million this year.
So, back to what this could all mean to you.
We can talk about those few extra yards all we want, but statistics bear out that fairways hit is one of the more important stats, and that applies even more to recreational golfers. No matter where the course, a drive in the fairway lets you play the hole with an advantage. That goes for your second shot on par-5s as well. If you could hit more of your approach shots from the fairway, your scores will go down for sure.
There are a number of ways to prove this to yourself, but my favorite is to play a practice round and hit every approach shot from the fairway. If you hit a drive in the rough, walk it straight out to the fairway and even back 10-15 yards, and hit your approach shot from there. My own informal research is that it makes a huge impact for golfers of all skill levels.
So, now that you’ve learned that, how do you hit more fairways? That takes some time on the range and/or with your professional, but mostly it takes a huge mental adjustment. We all are coached and coerced into thinking that the purpose of the tee shot is to move the ball as far as humanly possible. We are pounded with millions of dollars of advertising and TV talk about the “long ball.” But statistics prove that a ball in the short grass makes any hole play easier.
To me, there are three keys to hitting straighter drives, and most of them will actually improve your average distance as well:
- Grip the club lightly. If you have a light grip on the club, it prevents you from trying to muscle it too much.
- Swing at 85-90%. Just back off a bit on your entire swing pace, from start to finish. Feel like you are hitting the driver like you would a controlled 7-iron shot into a green.
- Aim small, miss small. That’s a favorite line of mine from Mel Gibson’s “The Patriot”, and it applies to golf. Pick out a specific tree, corner of a house, edge of a bunker, etc. and aim your tee shot precisely. Take time to get set up with a dead aim on where you want the ball to go. Too often, we just aim “at the fairway”, and that’s not good enough.
I hope this helps you hit more fairways as you get the most out of the last half of the 2020 golf season!
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again
After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.
Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.
Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”
Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.
“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.
Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.
“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”
“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”
As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.
In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.
“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”
Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.
Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:
Fairways Hit
1.) Louis Oosthuizen
2.) Anirban Lahiri
3.) Jon Rahm
4.) Brendan Steele
5.) Cameron Tringale
Greens in Regulation
1.) Brooks Koepka
2.) Brendan Steele
3.) Dean Burmester
4.) Cameron Tringale
5.) Anirban Lahiri
Birdies Made
1.) Brendan Steele
2.) Dean Burmester
3.) Thomas Pieters
4.) Patrick Reed
5.) Carlos Ortiz
LIV Golf Individual Standings:
1.) Joaquin Niemann
2.) Jon Rahm
3.) Dean Burmester
4.) Louis Oosthuizen
5.) Abraham Ancer
LIV Golf Team Standings:
1.) Crushers
2.) Legion XIII
3.) Torque
4.) Stinger GC
5.) Ripper GC
LIV Golf Singapore Picks
Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)
Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.
This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.
Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)
Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.
This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.
It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.
Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)
Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.
Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.
Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.
Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)
Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.
Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.
If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.
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Opinion & Analysis
Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America
In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.
While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.
Here are some of my key takeaways.
Method Teacher
It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.
Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.
The Cult of Stack and Jilt
The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”
Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.
These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.
Fooled by Randomness
In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.
Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.
Practice
One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”
Sunk Cost
The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.
Cliches
Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.
The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.
This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview
The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.
TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.
Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.
However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.
Past Winners at TPC Louisiana
- 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
- 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
- 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
- 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
- 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
- 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)
2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks
Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)
Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.
This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.
McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.
Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)
Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.
Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.
Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)
Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.
NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.
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Bob Jones
Aug 1, 2020 at 3:42 pm
There was a time long ago when the driver was called the play club, because it is what you used to put the ball in play.
Peter
Aug 1, 2020 at 6:23 am
Maybe the guy hitting more fairways will also hit more greens? Or the guy on his day of hitting more fairways will also hit more greens…?
Osnola Kinnard
Jul 30, 2020 at 10:45 am
TK,
I would add something that I have found to be true. I got ‘fitted’ on a Trackman that showed near perfect launch and spin rates and dispersion. I was dead on at the 14* launch and 2000-2400 RPM spin range. I think my driver was set up at 9*.
I got to the course and hit the ball all over the place. I hit a couple of really big bombs…I mean BIG drives…but I lost balls, hit them OB, hit them behind trees, and missed fairways.
I went to the driving range and pretty much did the same thing, hitting it all over the place. I started adding back loft .5* at a time and finally settled at 10* and my dispersion really tightened up as did my consistency. I was astounded at how much difference one additional degree meant.
My point being, the ‘best’ numbers don’t always translate to the ‘best result’.
drkviol801
Jul 30, 2020 at 9:23 am
Hey wedge guy, what are tomorrow’s lottery numbers? You seem so smart and knowledgeable.
Shawn
Jul 30, 2020 at 7:21 am
Thank you for the tip I find my self not making contact with the ball is my undoing However look back at a set up when pros set up thire is a slight lean in the upper club ware grip the club and always faces the target
Gunny
Jul 29, 2020 at 5:13 pm
This is 90% true.
The courses that I and most of us on this site play do not have rough that resembles the PGA tour setups. Many times if I miss the fairway by a few yards it’s no difference because the rough isn’t too thick most days. During our club championship, member guest, etc the rough can get gnarly, but most days the rough isn’t too big of a deal.
Being out of play or having an obstructed shot is a different deal. And that is where the advice in this article ring very true.
Jimmy
Jul 29, 2020 at 9:18 pm
I’ve done a lot of work on this with my own stat tracking (on my game). It’s more nuanced than this article & consistent with your comments. LANDING the ball in the fairway, regardless of whether it stays there, is the most important thing for my score. The reason is that you lose 10-30 yards of distance by landing it in the rough (depending on slope & how deep the rough is). And I’m way better with a 9-iron from the rough than a 6-iron from the fairway so backing off isn’t helpful.
The reason these tour numbers don’t work for amateurs is that tour rough is a much worse penalty, and tour players are way better with a mid/long iron from the fairway than amateurs are.
karsten's ghost
Jul 30, 2020 at 1:25 am
Absolutely nailed it, Jimmy. Driver with rollout is the key. Guys trying to hit it super-high and plugging their drives are missing out on whatever perceived advantage there was about height.
Hit the fairway on the fly, and everything’s gonna work out ok.