Connect with us

Opinion & Analysis

Golf gets its first Czar (Part 5)

Published

on

I must admit that I was surprised and humbled when told I’ve been named Czar over all of golf. I asked about the process and was told that upon investigation the computer drives failed but the appointment stands. I was afraid it would eat into my gin rummy time, but given the lack of focus involving participation I have decided to accept.

I do not plan to dismantle any of the current organizations and those of you who openly questioned my election process will be forgiven over the next several decades. There will also be a new event starting at the regional level, “The (Mandatory) Czar Homage Invitational,” featuring a huge field and colossal entry fee: details forthcoming except for distribution of the entry fee.

As promised before being elected, I will devote my time and energies to setting up a format where golf courses can combat the “too slow, no fun” malaise that is effecting the game. I will also drop any pretense of formality and go forward in a conversational tone. As Czar, my legacy will be seeing participation increase to a comfortable level. This does not mean I’m ignoring cost, good management and associated issues. It means my first goal is to improve the game as a value proposition.

Some facilities have attempted a leadership position by moving players up to shorter tees under the “Tee It Forward” influence. With a few exceptions, the effort is C-worthy and emblematic of the lack of thought which resulted in the original problem.

A short course with bland, uninteresting holes is only slightly better than one with spectacular holes that are too long for 90 percent of players. There’s no question that moving up benefits the majority of players, but I want the assembled minds in the industry to take that objective and do so with the combined goal of a shorter and still challenging layout.

As Czar, I don’t really have to do this, but to show my humanitarian side, let me start by apologizing to women golfers. I will write about men’s lengths and layouts because it’s easier for me and I’m lazy. I can provide specifics for women and if anyone is serious in that area I suggest they contact Carol Mann of the LPGA’s Hall of Fame. She did the best job of altering a course to be “woman friendly” that I have encountered (email address available upon request).

I realize golf courses are not easily adjusted. What follows is a statistic-based analysis of what it should be. I say “statistic-based” because the guidelines emanate from data on more than 1 million handicaps. If you really want to improve, you will look at the concepts and change what you can.

First we establish the back tees. Every course, public or private, has some number of long-hitting, good players and they deserve the challenge. The difference is that these tees will be identified as being for a small percentage of the players and the “real courses” are shorter but very challenging.

Since there is a historical association with the color of tees and who is supposed to play there, my first suggestion is new tee names and colors. The name “Czar Tees” is available with rental terms to be negotiated.

Wind and terrain are major factors and must be considered. It’s not how long a hole measures, it’s how it plays. Obviously, unless you live in West Texas or Oklahoma, the wind won’t be predictable (it never stops, and yes, I have lived in both places).

Look at the great links courses of Europe where they design holes around prevailing winds. Trust me, they have great layouts. So as I lay out ground rules, understand that theoretically each hole has been factored for the conditions. The other premise is that the average golfer gets to hit something in the neighborhood of an 8 iron into par-4 holes.

For the record, 8 iron is the average club tour players hit into par-4’s on the Tour. This is a key factor. It really isn’t about where the tees are or how long the hole measures; it’s about where you play from into the green so you can hit the ball into the air and have it land and stop on the green.

Par 5’s

The unthinking rush to front tees has produced a lot of 450-to-480 yard par-5 holes. The majority are dumb holes, still three shots for most everyone, but you can hit almost anything off the tee, anything for a second shot and still have a relatively short third shot. The great unwashed can whip something around 210 yards with a decent tee shot and have 180-to-190 yards for a second shot.

Assuming that a player can hit a 7 or 8 iron about 140 yards, we should have par 5 holes of 530 yards or more, not 475 yards. A downhill par-5 with a fast fairway should play longer than 530 yards, while an uphill par-5 or one that plays into the wind should player shorter. Let me repeat that I’m talking distances for the majority. Challenges for long-hitting, good players are handled very well by today’s architects.

Par 3’s

I’ve seen a lot of par 3’s that play something like 180 yards over a 30-foot deep water hazard replete with man-eating creatures. Let’s move those up to about 150 yards. If it’s a fairly open fairway where golfers can roll the ball onto the green, 190 yards is not out of the picture. If the green is protected by 18-foot deep traps where you can break an ankle getting in and out, let’s shallow them out.

The bottom line is that par-3 holes should range from 120 yards with small, protected greens to 190 yards with a helpful fairway.

Par 4’s

Par 4 holes now become more obvious from our experiences with the par-3’s and par-5’s. Drivable par 4’s are a great addition to some tour courses. Good for them, but they’re not applicable for us. Longer par 4’s (up to 400 yards) should feature straighter, faster fairways that encourage a ball to roll onto the green. Shorter par-4’s can obviously be more nefarious with curves and rough, and my personal reaction is that these types of holes are where great architecture can truly emerge.

I have a personal favorite par-4 that measures 340 yards and plays uphill. I swear it plays closer to 400 yards and the very memory of hitting a decent drive and needing a hybrid to have a chance just bugs me. But I CAN play it, unlike many others at 430-yard holes. Those leave me thinking about fishing more.

For those of you obsessed with numbers, I can provide a playable course between 6000-and-6600 yards under normal conditions. Remember, the back tees will still be in the 7000-yard range. For the golf architects bemoaning the low level of current business, I suggest that applying their skills to this concept creates more business opportunities. Let them be known for designing fun, playable courses and altering current ones accordingly.

Who pays for all these makeovers? That will be covered in the next and final issue.

Related

BA_IntroBA_Part1
BA_Part2BA_Part3
BA_Part4growing-the-game3

Your Reaction?
  • 2
  • LEGIT1
  • WOW0
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP0
  • OB0
  • SHANK0

Barney Adams is the founder of Adams Golf and the inventor of the iconic "Tight Lies" fairway wood. He served as Chairman of the Board for Adams until 2012, when the company was purchased by TaylorMade-Adidas. Adams is one of golf's most distinguished entrepreneurs, receiving honors such as Manufacturing Entrepreneur of the Year by Ernst & Young in 1999 and the 2010 Ernie Sabayrac Award for lifetime contribution to the golf industry by the PGA of America. His journey in the golf industry started as as a club fitter, however, and has the epoxy filled shirts as a testimony to his days as an assembler. Have an equipment question? Adams holds seven patents on club design and has conducted research on every club in the bag. He welcomes your equipment questions through email at [email protected] Adams is now retired from the golf equipment industry, but his passion for the game endures through his writing. He is the author of "The WOW Factor," a book published in 2008 that offers an insider's view of the golf industry and business advice to entrepreneurs, and he continues to contribute articles to outlets like GolfWRX that offer his solutions to grow the game of golf.

44 Comments

44 Comments

  1. Stretch

    Jul 22, 2014 at 1:22 pm

    I learned to play on a 9 hole course with two sets of tees. About 2800 yds from the longer tees. Quick domed greens and also very small. Firm fairways let players roll the ball a long ways. The course held the longest running amateur tournament in the state and it was rare if a scratch or plus handicap player shot better than two under.

    The second point is I worked at a championship course that had a lot of mini Tour pros and hot shot amateurs working in the tourist season. I had a running bet that they could not break par from the ladies tees. Never lost the bet. The really good players could not figure out that scoring on a short course meant controlling shot placement and that trying to overpower the course only led to penalties and chip outs from behind trees that normally aren’t in play.

    • Barney adama

      Jul 22, 2014 at 11:26 pm

      Exactly what I mean when I talk about educating the golfing public

  2. Jim

    Jul 22, 2014 at 9:06 am

    Barney – Love the articles. Please keep writing and writing. Most amateurs don’t even look at the yardage on a score card they either go to the back tees or they go one up from there. They never factor in wind, weather, temp, etc. That is a big problem and the stock response you get is “it doesn’t matter what tees I play, I still shoot the same”. I laugh at that because an 8 iron is easier to hit than a six iron. I even have friend you used to be elite college players who are no longer elite but still good and we have to play long courses. Well on our last trip, we got rain and wind and the course was too long for all of us and our scores skyrocketed. And the worst part was when we came in, everyone said they just didn’t play well not that the course was too long or tough in those conditions. Moving up helps, it speeds play, is more fun and changes course strategy. I don’t remember the last time I saw a starter on a tee “helping” a foursome play the correct tees.

  3. myron miller

    Jul 21, 2014 at 1:52 pm

    Personally I think Barney has hit it on the head. I play a ton of rounds each year with “average” golfers (those with zero handicap or even interest in one) and lots of beginners. And they can’t carry it 200 yards with the driver (not straight). Of course, there are also those that carry it 250 but only do it in the fairway 1 time in 4. But then they think they should play the next to back tees because they carry the ball so far.

    And I can’t count the number of courses where the “white” tee par-3 requires a carry from 180-220 yards over some major hazard. Average yardage for driver is about 200 with roll of 25 yards as measured by many many groups. So these par-3s become unplayable by many.

    I played one course in Seattle where the carry to the fairway was 225. Needless to say, lots of people didn’t carry it and ended up in the grunge (and the course has lots of 5-6 hours rounds and says that’s just because of the course difficulty – true, lousy design and artificial difficulty).

    And then there’s the PGA “Play it forward” program that the course pro’s don’t entirely follow. They put their membership at 6600-6800 yard events even though a number of the membership can’t handle more than 6200-6300 yards at best. And of course, the seniors are totally out because they can’t handle more than 5800 but unless they want to give strokes to the field they have to play at the long yardage.

    And of course, when all the events are at the long yardage, all the players play during regular play at these yardages (even though the Pro “encourages” players to “play it forward”.

    Seems contradictory to me. Why have the play it forward when all the events are too long for the players involved except for the longer better players.

    So since everyone is “practicing” for the next event, they’ll playing at too long yardages which makes play even slower.

    • cliff

      Jul 21, 2014 at 4:58 pm

      I assume your are talking about club championships and other tournaments. Our club championship is played from the back tees the first day (6800+) and flighted for the next day. Championship flight stays on the back tees and the rest of the flights move forward (6400+). Tournaments should be played from longer yardages, it separates the men from the boys.

      I work hard to be good at this game and people that don’t should be punished when the THINK they are ready to play tournaments.

      • Rich

        Jul 23, 2014 at 1:26 pm

        That’s the typical type thinking that has put golf in the position it’s in…Completely stupid thinking! You want to separate men from boys? What a crock of crap that comment is! Come put on the gloves…or no gloves…that will satisfy your “separation” …Meanwhile. your thinking is the very problem golf is facing! Sad!

        • cliff

          Jul 24, 2014 at 9:40 am

          So in your mind we should just have one set of tees at 5800 yards? Sounds comical to me! If you can play golf it really doesn’t matter what tees you play. If you can’t play golf it really doesn’t matter what tees you play. Point is, good golfers typically play fast and bad golfers typically play slow.

          Idiot golfer who think the are better than what they really are is the problem!

  4. Tommy

    Jul 20, 2014 at 11:42 pm

    All hail my 7100 yard private golf club that doesn’t allow women

  5. Chuck

    Jul 20, 2014 at 11:36 am

    Barney since you picked on unnamed “architects,” I thought I might offer a countering view…

    You wrote: “For the golf architects bemoaning the low level of current business, I suggest that applying their skills to this concept creates more business opportunities. Let them be known for designing fun, playable courses and altering current ones accordingly.”

    I’ve met Tom Doak and Geoff Shackelford and have read just about all of the books by both of them. There are few things I can imagine either one of them doing, than building a natural-looking, low-water, fine playable links on good ground for golf at about 6700 yards, with a number of forward tees up to 5800 or even 5500 yards. We’d need to ask their clients why they don’t want such designs.

    And I know — because he has put it in writing — that Tom Doak professes no interest in re-configuring classic golf course architecture to suit modern elite/tour golf. And mostly, when somebody forces (because that’s what it would usually take) Tom to comment on such courses, he thinks it is mostly rotten.

    We live in a golfing world where the gap between elite players and recreational players is wider than ever, and the elite players are threatening much of the architecture at golf’s most hallowed venues. Paraphrasing Shackelford, in no other sport are the venues where the game is conducted as central and critical to the enterprise, and in no other sport are the venues as delicately designed. The enduring beauty of golf, clearly (and, I’d say, unarguably) is in the courses and not the implements of play.

    We now have no less a triumvirate than Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer and Gary Player all agreeing that the golf ball needs to be rolled back:

    http://www.geoffshackelford.com/homepage/2012/4/5/jack-arnold-gary-vital-to-slow-down-the-ball.html

    Barney, you might well say that a ball rollback has nothing to do with getting recreational players out to play more golf. I think I’d agree. But there’s also no reason to think that clever new ball regulations would hurt recreational golf. With all of your access to data, you must know that a relatively small number of recreational players even bother with urethane balls much less depend upon them the way that tour players do. The only people in golf who would miss the current status quo are the executives at Acushnet.

    I still think the big falloff in getting new devotees to golf is the death of caddy programs across the country with the rise of golf carts. Just more unintended consequences of golf technology.

    • Chuck

      Jul 20, 2014 at 11:38 am

      Correcting a typo above:

      “There are few things I can imagine either one of them RATHER BE doing MORE, than building a natural-looking, low-water, fine playable links…”

    • Barney adama

      Jul 20, 2014 at 9:34 pm

      I guess I’m just missing something. Lets design courses applicable to 4% of the market ? What business model does that follow. I will address the golf ball in my equipment column.

      • LB

        Jul 20, 2014 at 9:55 pm

        But what percent of US courses are designed with the issues you mention? It can’t be THAT much, can it? Sounds like a relatively recent problem…

      • Chuck

        Jul 21, 2014 at 10:57 am

        No, Barney. The question — paraphrasing you — is why build EQUIPMENT that benefits 4% of the golfing world? It’s a gross paraphrasing, of course. But who, really, has been aided most by the Pro V-1 era?

        I will look forward to your comments on the ball when we get there.

        But back to architects. Again, if what you are suggesting for the betterment of golf is more courses that are simple, playable, challenging from shorter overall distances, using less water to save costs (and therefore “firm and fast”) and walkable without need of golf carts… I say as I did above, that the architects in whom I believe would LOVE to build more of those. And the real question is why the people who hire those architects don’t ask for such designs.

      • AW

        Jul 24, 2014 at 4:31 pm

        Our neighborhood Doak course is: a) public, b) cheap, c) eminently fair and d) owned by the Colorado Golf Association. So at least for that one example, there’s no “4% of the maket” discrimination at all by one of the big name architects.

        http://www.commongroundgc.com

  6. Jeff Daschel

    Jul 19, 2014 at 4:46 pm

    I wholly appreciate what you’re trying to do from the saving golf angle. I believe in my heart its the wrong thing to do. First let me tell you why I play golf. I started playing at 24 when I got a job at a Country Club. In that time, 6 years, I have spent thousands upon thousands of hours practicing.(I don’t have any more free time than anyone else) I just became addicted to the challenge. Yes, golf is really hard. Its taken me 6 years of intense practice to SOMETIMES play to a single digit handicap. To SOMETIMES reach a par 5 in two. From the time I started it probably took me 4 years to stand on the first tee and know I had a good chance at hitting a solid approach to give myself a look at birdie.
    Now, respectfully, I earned every damn 8 iron I hit into a par 4. My playing partners may not hit 8 iron into the green all the time because my playing partners may not have spent hours that week hitting driver into an open field. They can’t get up and down because I spent 3 hours chipping into a kiddie pool and they didn’t. If you make golf easier for those who aren’t willing to try as hard, you risk cheapening the genuine admiration most have for the guys who put in enough work to be brilliant.
    I have a box that I used to keep every ball I’ve ever made birdie with in. I can’t imagine placing such a value and meaning to a birdie or the game if they suddenly became easy to come by.
    My argument is basically that there are plenty of people who love golf, as the game Hogan played. That’s good by me

    • Barney adama

      Jul 19, 2014 at 6:01 pm

      The problem, Jeff is the vast majority cannot reach the holes and they are out of gym time and practice. Congratulations on your time and effort and the back tees will always be there for you. I still want to see more people playing that will help keep the game healthy financially.

      • Jeff Daschel

        Jul 20, 2014 at 5:56 pm

        I guess I don’t. I think there’s nothing in the world better than an empty golf course, almost nothing worse in the world of golf than a crowded course. When any problem is addressed with the question, how do we make more money? the answers are problems in themselves. What are your thoughts on caddy programs?

        • Peter

          Jul 21, 2014 at 1:05 am

          Jeff, an empty course is great for a quick, enjoyable round. But it’s also the fastest ticket to a bankrupt golf course, since you’d be the only one playing! Wishing for markedly fewer golfers is cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face.

  7. Ryan K

    Jul 19, 2014 at 1:48 pm

    Great take on how holes should be set up to par. Wholly agree on that! One thing that bothers me most on courses is having 4 Par 3’s, all within 15-20 yards of each other. Too many around my home will play something like 175, 190, 181, 188. That’s no fun! And again, too many Par 4’s at 410, 423, 427, etc. I am on the longer side of the average golfer but not by much. The repetition just gets old. Let’s see some variety, some of the 380 but tough Par 4’s and, again, 140 but tough Par 3’s make the round feel more complete! Make it happen!

  8. Chuck

    Jul 18, 2014 at 5:13 pm

    Barney, if you are the new Czar of All of Golf, who is going to break the news to Walter Driver?

  9. LB

    Jul 18, 2014 at 1:49 pm

    Great ideas to address design issues, but not much more of an idea or solution than just playing the white tees.

  10. ca1879

    Jul 18, 2014 at 11:00 am

    Hail Czar! We who are about to duff, salute you! Nice tongue in cheek article. Your description doesn’t seem all that far off the middle tees at most clubs I play. In fact it’s pretty close to dead on for my home club (7717 from the champ tees, 6532/5987 from the tees most male members play). Are there really that many clubs that need to change to offer reasonable length and challenge? I don’t see the average golfer behaving the way he’s presented by others here, even on munis. The vast majority seem to play one of the two middle sets of tees. You can argue that they should move up even further, but I don’t think the situation is as extreme as you would think from reading the golf forums. Are there any actual statistics available on the tees or length we choose to play?

    • Barney adama

      Jul 18, 2014 at 9:54 pm

      To coin a phrase on statistics. PLENTY in fact a majority. It’s getting better with Tee It Forward but the resistance is significant

  11. IH8

    Jul 18, 2014 at 10:03 am

    While Mr. Adams is very well written and is presenting some interesting ideas, I have to admit that I’m not really sure where this is going. I will say this however, this sure does come off very similar to all those other ‘grow the game’ things, i.e. written from a very golf centric perspective. Many of the premises here are taken from the view of the avid golfer. Too slow? Yeah, for all of us. But for an average golfer (you know, the type that plays 2-4 times a year, in a cart, drunk, can’t break 120 and is most interested in where the beer cart girl is so they can harass her), they don’t care that much as golf is usually an all day type event for them anyway (usually part of an all day outing, hence the heavy drinking). And to non-golfers, too slow? Not for them. They don’t know how long it takes to play and further more, they don’t care. Telling them the pace is quicker is like telling me that cricket is cheaper. I didn’t know it was expensive before and I don’t care if it’s free, I’m not interested (i.e. the majority’s attitude to golf). An 8 iron 140? Carry? You’re kidding right? Again, for us, sure. But the average golfer? I’d be amazed if they hit hybrid 150, with roll. I’m a former green fee golfer who’s in his first year private and with that knowledge I can honestly say that I don’t think Mr. Adams knows much about the average golfer. He knows us (golfwrx/avid golfer types) quite well. Most of us can break 100 or 90 fairly easily, play tees that are too long, hit an 8 iron 140 carry (or so) and understand the issues he’s talking about. But to the average golfer and the non-golfer, I don’t think any of this matters. I like his point about value for dollar but I don’t think he’s touching upon much other than to preach to the choir.

    And while I have your attention, why is every par 5 in this article designed to be a 3 shot hole? By his logic, anything over 400 yards or so should be a par 5, which might not necessarily be a bad thing. At least the punters could have a go. Basically, the par 5s being proposed by the czar here is basically a driving range for your driver and fw metal followed by an 8-iron par 3. If I’m playing it the same all the time, who cares? Might as well hit the range for some practice.

    • melrosegod

      Jul 18, 2014 at 5:23 pm

      We get it, you’re a hater. I don’t think anyone is trying to persuade drunk scramble golfers to get out more than twice a year. I think the average golfer loves the game but does work for a living. Hence, the average golfer would enjoy shooting trying to break 80 instead of avoid the 90s.

      • ih8

        Jul 20, 2014 at 2:46 pm

        I’m not hating, my point is Mr. Adams points are geared towards a golf obsessed culture with good players and nice courses. The reality for the average golfer doesn’t match up to the culture Mr. Adams comments are aimed at. He’s doing the equivalent of “let them eat cake.”

    • Barney adama

      Jul 18, 2014 at 6:14 pm

      Sorry cant pass that one up. Mr Adams has access to a data bank of 1.7m handicaps, has been in the equipment business as a club fitter then designer for 30 + years. Yes actually I do understand the average golfer.

      • Philip

        Jul 19, 2014 at 11:55 pm

        Note – I agree with Tee if Forward – I see many golfers playing off the whites/blues that cannot carry their driver 200 yards, and if you include their misses than the average is a lot lower. So this is not negative, just looking for additional info.

        So you mention 1.7m handicaps, compared to how many golfers? I’m assuming this information is USA – doesn’t the USA have over 25m golfers?

        The USGA GHIN system only has 2.3 million golfers from 79 golf associations that represent more than 14,000 golf clubs (as of January 2014).

        This tells me that the average golfer does not have a handicap, in fact the majority don’t and most likely do not pay for a custom fitting or purchase new clubs every year like many maintaining handicaps (USGA or not).

      • ih8

        Jul 20, 2014 at 2:44 pm

        Totally agree with Philip. 1.7 million handicaps when there are supposedly 25 million golfers in the US alone, so you’re data doesn’t even cover 10% of golfers. How can you make the claim you know the average golfer with such a teeny tiny amount of data? How often do you play a public course (where roughly 3/4 of rounds are played)? How many green fees do you pay a year? How often do you play with individuals without a handicap (i.e. 90+% of golfers)? If the answer to those questions are high numbers, I think you have a handle on the average golfer…or for that matter, the average golf course.

  12. John

    Jul 17, 2014 at 9:34 pm

    Look at Mr. Tom Watson, who at 64 is still competitive in The Open Championship (a 73 today that bettered many younger players). Why? Because the balls ROLLS over there in England, even with the course being greener than usual. Let’s get rid of the over watered, lush, environmentally irresponsible golf agronomy here in the US and Barney “Czar” Adams won’t have to build any courses. The ones we have, properly set up, will do just fine. Oh, and by the way, for the clueless posters out there, he’s kidding about the Czar thing. It’s humor.
    Thanks Mr. A, good articles, looking forward to the final edition and thank you for your efforts to improve the game.

    • Barney adama

      Jul 18, 2014 at 6:15 pm

      Exactly what Mr Watson told me the last time we were fishing. The roll out allows him to be competitive

  13. Jason

    Jul 17, 2014 at 7:22 pm

    Those are all nice ideas. Most courses already have several tee boxes set up for varied skill levels, the problem is that almost every group thinks their PGA ready.

    • paul

      Jul 18, 2014 at 2:35 pm

      Oh crap, we aren’t ready for the pro leagues?!

  14. Charlie

    Jul 17, 2014 at 5:10 pm

    Are you going to start designing courses? This article just seems like a farce to me.

  15. Tom

    Jul 17, 2014 at 5:08 pm

    Who called you Czar of anything? Is this a bad joke?

    • Barney adama

      Jul 17, 2014 at 7:28 pm

      Bad ? I guess up to the individual. Humor ? You bet. Just so we all don’t get too serious.

  16. Don

    Jul 17, 2014 at 4:54 pm

    I disagree about the par 5’s. Tour players get to eat up par 5’s, why shouldn’t the rest of us? Sub-500 yarders are the way to go for the average 200-225 yard drive golfer, IMO.

    • Barney adama

      Jul 17, 2014 at 5:17 pm

      But they are still 3 shot holes even at sub 500 unless slope and prevailing winds help The tour eats them up when they get home in two.

      • Jeremy

        Jul 17, 2014 at 7:02 pm

        Don is right though, mostly when they put a shot in the fairway they have the opportunity to go for it. I don’t see too many holes these days where it’s only Bubba who can make it in 2 with a helping wind. If you’re talking about making the game more fun, there’s few things in the game more fun than making eagle.

        Also, I love me some drivable par 4s and I think every course should have at least one.

      • paul

        Jul 18, 2014 at 2:39 pm

        My local course has two par 5s that are 500 yards. One has water around the green, so you need a high shot to hold it. The other has a big green and dog leg, make up the stroke you lost on last par 5 when you were going for it. Also has one drive able par 4 if its windy. I have flown it twice in to bunkers. The course plays 5900 white and 6400 blue tees. Just about shot par from the white, so I am graduating to the blues.

  17. James

    Jul 17, 2014 at 3:28 pm

    The Czar has spoken well. I can remember the old courses I grew up on where you could run a ball up on the green and modern courses today seem to take that away from us all. I prefer firm and fast fairways and greens to the overly watered down soft courses that most are these days. My home course has about half the holes designed into the prevailing winds be them out of the south or north. Just those into the wind change depending on wind direction. You make some great points Czar Barney!

    • Christian

      Jul 19, 2014 at 12:00 am

      Czar Barney doesn’t work, comes off too soft. We’re gonna need a name that can instill a little fear if there’s any hope of getting some of these changes into effect. If Czar Barney called you onto the carpet would you sweat or giggle? I vote for Czar RipsYourHeadOff. Czar RipsYourHeadOff gets sh*t done!

      Btw the tee’s are an issue that do need some attention. Speed of play, enjoyment and attracting new players are all affected by it.

      • Christian

        Jul 19, 2014 at 12:02 am

        @IH8

        Next time you have a thought, wait 15 minutes, if you still have it let it go.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

Published

on

The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

Your Reaction?
  • 9
  • LEGIT2
  • WOW0
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP1
  • OB1
  • SHANK3

Continue Reading

Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

Published

on

As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
Your Reaction?
  • 2
  • LEGIT0
  • WOW0
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP1
  • OB0
  • SHANK1

Continue Reading

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

Published

on

The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

Your Reaction?
  • 30
  • LEGIT10
  • WOW4
  • LOL2
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP3
  • OB1
  • SHANK6

Continue Reading

WITB

Facebook

Trending