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Fantasy Cheat Sheet: Shell Houston Open

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Since 2007, the Shell Houston Open has been the springboard to the Masters. Normally played the week prior to the year’s first major, it is the last chance for someone to get to Augusta, and the only way to do so is to win.

The Golf Club of Houston (formerly Redstone Golf Club) in Humble, Texas, has been the host since 2003, and it appears to be yielding one of the strongest fields it has ever had. That’s primarily due to the Rees Jones design acting as an Augusta National prequel. And of the participants, there are 14 players who have combined to win 25 major titles, including five by Phil Mickelson, who is coming off a withdrawal from last week’s Valero Texas Open. Who knows if his oblique muscle strain was real or something to get him home a day earlier once he got far out of contention.

For Jimmy Walker, who played his college golf at nearby Baylor University, being in the field as a three-time PGA Tour winner, which was all accomplished this year, comes on the heels of a barely-made cut.

Many gamers are starting fresh after the Yahoo winter segment ended, and hopefully you’re holding onto a virtual trophy. But with a new segment now in the works, begin planning your strategies accordingly and don’t be afraid to play some hunches on a course that sets up for Masters prep. Here’s a look at some I’ll fool around with this week. It’s Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

Steve Stricker Shell 2014 Fantasy

With such a strong field this week, season starts to be valued at this point in the year, and a new segment opening up, I want to take a deeper look at some golfers who are likely total hit-or-miss for one reason or another. I really like all five of the Risk picks below, but I will still be calculated in whatever gambles I take. Often that means pairing risk with reward so you don’t wind up with goose eggs on your scorecard and a bottle of Goose in your hands.

Steve Stricker

Last year, he played a limited schedule. This year by comparison makes Steve Stricker look a buddy who pulls his clubs out of the attic every June to go drink a sixer and lose 50 balls in the water. Of course, Stricker practices in the meantime, but he’s played but four events this season and one was match play where he got bounced in the first round. He won’t shoot himself in the foot this week, but the play of recent tournament play provides me trepidation he won’t tear up GCH either. When he was playing a lot, Stricker’s results were impressive. His last two outing were middle of the pack, but before came T4 (’11), T11 (’08), T9 (’07) and solo third (’06) results with one missed cut mixed in. You’d like to use him because he has so many starts available. This could be a good time.

Paul Casey 

Paul Casey Shell Fantasy 2014

In 2009, Paul Casey reached third in the Official World Golf Rankings. In that year, he recorded his first PGA Tour victory at the Shell Houston Open, topping J.B. Holmes in a playoff, then later won the European Tour’s high-profile BMW PGA Championship. But also in that year, he suffered an injury, which slowed his ascent, before his game turned back the other way. His only Tour win is still in Houston, though he does have 12 European Tour and two Asian Tour wins to his credit. A T12 at the Honda Classic a month ago was a nice sign to his game, but he missed the cut at the Valspar and tied for 60th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He has missed his last two cuts at SHO, but I believe he’s nearer his 2009 form than that of his struggling play in more recent memory.

Hunter Mahan

This slot was a tie between Matt Kuchar and Hunter Mahan until Kuchar finally awoke from a semi-slumber and played well for three rounds at the Valero Texas Open. Kuchar will continue to play well, but Mahan needs a top-5 finish to get his year going. And since he withdrew during the final round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a hip injury, it’s a mystery to know what kind of golfer he’ll be this week. But with four top-10s this season and a win at the SHO in 2012, it’s not to say he can’t come out on top again. He’s contended a lot as evidence by T8 (’11), T6 (’09), T5 (’07) and T11 (’06) finishes, but he’s also sprayed in four missed cuts during a 10-year stretch.

Charles Howell III

Charles+Howell+III+Humana+Challenge+partnership+jvi0RLuy6k_l

Charles Howell III may be heading to Augusta this week, but the only way the hometown kid is making the Masters is by winning this week. He has six top-10s this season and he’s entering with a final-round 76 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational to remind him of missed opportunities to slide in using the OWGR. Fortunately for him, he’s played well at the SHO. Last year, tied for 10th, in 2011 he was T19. He’s 6 for 9 with a solo 17th in ’05 as his only other solid result. CH3 is a true risk pick with his last PGA Tour win coming in 2007.

Brian Davis

Davis enters this week with very little to show for his season thus far, outside a couple top-20s. A third-round 76 took him out of brief contention last week, but Davis has shined at the Shell Houston Open. He finished T6 last year with nothing to show for himself in the weeks preceding. In 2012, he finished T4. He’s 5 for 7 at SHO with a T7 in ’05 and a T14 in ’09. Davis is a good under-the-radar pick and in a great spot to use him in Golf Channel’s game.

REWARD

Henrik Stenson Shell Fantasy 2014

Up until Phil Mickelson withdrew from the Valero Texas Open, I had him pegged to be in the Reward category. This will be the 10th time he’s teed it up at the SHO, and he won in 2011. But now, I don’t have anywhere to slot him. I guess, technically, he’s a Risk, but I’m not even close to considering him. He’s also not been so bad that he’s Ruin either. Lefty is in some weird golf purgatory right now, which is not where you want your game to be heading into Augusta. So for now, here are five I especially like to tame Houston’s fast-paced greens. Apologies to the many elite golfers not named.

Henrik Stenson

Coming off a T5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Stenson enters GCH as a strong favorite thanks to a T3 finish in 2009 and a T2 last year. On this course, hitting greens in regulation will be a big key to success, which is what Stenson did so well at Bay Hill. His GIR sits at just below 70 percent, which would place him in the top 25 on Tour if he qualified. If he hits greens this week, look out.

Rory McIlroy

Rory McIlroy Shell Fantasy 2014

Outside of Adam Scott, who’s not in the field this week before defending his Masters title, you could make a strong case for McIlroy being the best player in the world. His play this season backs that up this season with a win at the Emirates Australian Open and a loss in a playoff at The Honda Classic. On the European Tour, he’s had a T9 at the Dubai Desert Classic and a T2 at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. McIlroy’s GIR is even better than Stenson’s and would slot him in the top 10 on Tour if he qualified. He’s 2 for 3 in cuts made at the SHO with one top-20, but he is very much at the top of his game in a very young career.

Dustin Johnson

Very few can top the season Johnson has already had. He won his first stroke-play event, has a T6, T2, a solo second-place finish and is coming off a T4 at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. He closed last year’s T4 performance with a final-round 65. While he missed the cut in 2008-09, his game has reached a pinnacle in recent years. He leads the Tour in GIR, birdie average, scoring average and is second in driving distance. All the statistics line up with recent form to make him the top contender this week.

Keegan Bradley

Keegan Bradley SHell Fantasy 2014

We’re still waiting for Bradley to bust out and grab another win. He came close at Bay Hill with a solo second, which was his eighth top-20 of the season and his best result of the season. He’s 3 for 3 at making the cut at the SHO and tied for 10th a year ago and fourth in 2012. He ranks 22nd in driving distance, which sets up approach shots, and when he gets in trouble, his scrambling gets him out.

Louis Oosthuizen

Oosthuizen is perhaps a bit overlooked with Sergio Garcia, Webb Simpson, Jordan Spieth and others also in the field. But Oosthuizen has a T10 last year, a solo third in 2012 and a T16 the year before. He won the European Tour’s Volvo Golf Champions in December and played well in match play. He hits GIR at a good clip and his pattern of play each year lines up with having a successful week. In a week where you may want to save starts from other big names, Oosty sits as a great alternative across all game formats.

RUIN

D.A. Points Shell Fantasy 2014

While the tournament is competitive, this is still a Masters prep week. And with the course mimicking green speed and set-up for Augusta National, some will find struggles they haven’t in week’s past, nor will some be mentally ready to battle certain veterans under such scrutiny. As always, course history weighs heavily into my evaluations. Context is king.

D.A. Points

Yes, Points won the SHO last year, but no, he won’t win again. His GIR is worse than last year, but oddly enough the trends in his year are the same. So what are we to make of it? Well, even in years prior, he’s missed the cut when playing well. I don’t want to be confused on what to expect when making a selection and he gives me no confidence. I’d bank on a missed cut before a made one.

J.J. Henry

J.J. Henry Shell Fantasy 2014

Though he played his college golf in Texas, Henry’s game is in no shape to compete this week. He’s in a swoon of seven missed cuts in his last eight stroke-play events. He’s missed his last two cuts at the SHO, which is the downward trend from four decent results in prior years. Don’t ignore the recent form.

Steven Bowditch

Coming off his first PGA Tour win at the Valero Texas Open, Bowditch will get the rude awakening of playing the week after an emotional victory. Maybe he’s ready, but he really struggled to find fairways in holding off the rest of his competitors. On any other course, he probably doesn’t get away with it. This week, the more technicals aspects of his game will be tested and collection areas around the greens will swallow up errant approaches. He’s 1 for 3 at the SHO and that one made cut was a T56. He also ranks poorly in GIR.

Johnson Wagner

Johnson Wagner Shell Fantasy 2014

Don’t be blinded by Wagner’s win in 2008. He hasn’t been hitting fairways or greens this year and has missed eight cuts in 11 starts this year. He also missed the cut last year in a 2 for 5 stretch since his win with nothing close to being in contention. Avoid him strongly.

Seung-yul Noh

Noh hasn’t missed a cut since the season-opening Frys.com Open back in October. Since, he’s been towards the back of the back with three top-20s, including a T16 last week that was buoyed by an opening-round 69. But it’s time for that streak to end as he faces a GCH course that’s caused him two miss the cut in his only two appearances. There will be times to use the young South Korean, but now is not one of them.

As always, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you want to talk about the Shell Houston Open, the upcoming Masters or want to discuss why Golf Channel is ridiculously including the LPGA event Kraft Nabisco Championship in weekly picks. Good luck!

This week’s picks

Yahoo!

Group A: H. Stenson (S), M. Kuchar

Group B: D. Johnson (S), R. McIlroy (S), G. DeLaet, K. Bradley

Group C: S. Garcia (S), L. Oosthuizen

(Last week: 174 points; Winter segment: 1,993; Rank: 2,090 – 97th percentile)

PGATour.com

D. Johnson, H. Stenson, S. Garcia, R. McIlroy

(Last week: 352 points; Season: 3,623; Rank: 3,946)

Golf Channel

Shell Houston Open

Group 1: D. Johnson

Group 2: L. Oosthuizen

Group 3: B. Davis

Group 4: J.B. Holmes

Kraft Nabisco Championship

Group 1: I. Park

Group 2: S. Pak

Group 3: H. Kyung Seo

Group 4: L. Wright

(Last week: $389,825; Season: $7,311,605; Mulligan: $28,666; Rank: 5,615 of 34,992)

Brian Miller is a sports writer of over eight years and his work has appeared in the Chicago Sun-Times, Miami Herald and Tallahassee Democrat. He's a fantasy golf nut and his golf novel will be published in spring 2014. You may find him on Twitter @bricmiller.

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Instruction

How to play your best golf when the temperature drops

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The LPGA Tour is kicking off its 2026 season this week at Lake Nona Golf and Country Club in Orlando, and the pros are dealing with something most Florida golfers rarely face: freezing temperatures.

“It’s colder here than in the UK at the minute, which is a first,” said England’s Charley Hull during Wednesday’s media day at the Hilton Grand Vacations Tournament of Champions.

Even Lydia Ko, who lives at Lake Nona, seemed surprised by the cold snap. “We’re pretty much getting to below zero in celsius here, which maybe in other parts of the country they would be thankful, but when you’re in Florida it is a little bit of a surprise,” she said.

If the world’s best players are adjusting their games for cold weather, recreational golfers should, too. Here’s how to play smart when the mercury drops.

Understand What Cold Does to Your Game

Before you change anything, you need to know what you’re fighting against. Cold air is denser than warm air, which means your ball won’t fly as far. Period.

Hull noticed this immediately during practice rounds at Lake Nona. She mentioned hitting a gap wedge into the 18th hole during a previous win but needing a 4-iron during Tuesday’s practice round. That’s a difference of four or five clubs for the same shot.

Action item: Expect to lose 5-10 yards on every club in your bag when temperatures dip below 50 degrees. Plan accordingly and don’t be stubborn about club selection.

Layer Up Without Restricting Your Swing

Hull admitted she wore three pairs of pants during practice. While that might be extreme for most of us, staying warm is critical to playing well in cold conditions.

Your muscles need warmth to function properly. When you’re cold, your body tightens up and your swing gets shorter and faster. Neither of those things help you hit good golf shots.

Action item: Wear multiple thin layers instead of one bulky jacket. Look for golf-specific cold weather gear that stretches with your swing. Keep hand warmers in your pockets between shots. And don’t forget a good hat because you lose significant body heat through your head.

Take More Club Than You Think You Need

This is where ego gets in the way of good scores. When it’s cold, the ball doesn’t compress as well off the clubface. Combined with denser air, you’re looking at serious distance loss.

The pros at Lake Nona are dealing with a course that measures 6,642 yards but plays much longer this week. If they’re adjusting, you should too.

Action item: Take at least one extra club on every approach shot. In temperatures below 40 degrees, consider taking two extra clubs. It’s better to fly the ball to the back of the green than to come up short in a bunker.

Adjust Your Expectations on the Greens

Cold weather affects putting in ways most golfers don’t consider. The ball is harder and doesn’t roll as smoothly. Your hands are cold, making it harder to feel the putter. And if there’s any moisture on the greens, they’ll be slower than normal.

Ko mentioned that she still sometimes reads the greens wrong at Lake Nona despite being a member for years. Cold weather makes that challenge even tougher.

Action item: Hit putts more firmly than usual. The ball needs extra speed to hold its line on cold greens. Take a few extra practice strokes to get a feel for the speed before you putt.

Embrace the Mental Challenge

Hull said something interesting about cold weather golf: “I like the mental toughness of it.”

That’s the right attitude. Everyone on the course is dealing with the same conditions. The player who stays patient and doesn’t get frustrated by the extra difficulty will come out ahead.

Action item: Lower your expectations by a few strokes. If you normally shoot 85, accept that 90 might be a good score in 40-degree weather. Focus on solid contact and smart decisions rather than perfect shots.

Warm Up Longer and Smarter

This might be the most important tip of all. Cold muscles are tight muscles, and tight muscles get injured easily.

World No. 1 Jeeno Thitikul revealed she’s been protecting a wrist injury that bothered her late last season. Cold weather makes those kinds of injuries more likely if you don’t prepare properly.

Action item: Spend at least 20 minutes warming up before your round. Start with stretching, then hit easy wedge shots before working up to your driver. Keep moving between shots on the course to maintain body heat and flexibility.

The pros at Lake Nona this week will adapt and compete at the highest level despite the cold. You can do the same at your local course by following these tips and keeping a positive attitude.

 

PGA Professional Brendon Elliott is an award-winning coach and golf writer. You can check out his writing work and learn more about him by visiting BEAGOLFER.golf and OneMoreRollGolf.com. Also, check out “Playing Through  now on R.org, RG.org’s partner site, each Monday.

Editor’s note: Brendon shares his nearly 30 years of experience in the game with GolfWRX readers through his ongoing tip series. He looks forward to providing valuable insights and advice to help golfers improve their game. Stay tuned for more tips!

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3 lessons from Brooks Koepka that’ll actually lower your score

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Brooks Koepka is back on the PGA Tour, and whether you love him or hate him, the guy knows how to win when it matters. After his LIV Golf stint, the five-time major champion returns this week at the Farmers Insurance Open.

What makes Koepka fascinating? He doesn’t fit the mold. His swing isn’t textbook. He doesn’t obsess over mechanics. Yet he’s won three PGA Championships and two U.S. Opens, regularly making it look easier than guys with prettier swings.

So, what can average golfers learn from someone who treats the game so differently? Quite a bit.

Stop Overthinking Every Shot

Koepka describes his approach as “reactionary” rather than mechanical. While most tour pros grind over swing thoughts, Brooks sees the target and hits it. No mental checklist.

This might be the most valuable lesson for weekend golfers who’ve watched too many YouTube swing videos.

How to actually do this:

On the range, hit five balls where you stare at the target for three seconds prior to addressing the ball. Don’t think about grip or stance. Just burn that target into your brain. You’ll be shocked at how pure you hit it when your brain focuses on where the ball is going instead of how you’re swinging.

Next time you play, give yourself a rule: Once you pull the club, you’ve got 15 seconds to hit. Koepka is one of the fastest players on tour because he doesn’t give his brain time to sabotage him.

If you feel tension in your hands at address, you’re trying to control too much. Koepka’s grip pressure is famously light. Loosen up until the club almost feels like it might slip, then add just enough pressure to hold on. That’s your swing thought: soft hands, see the target.

This approach works better under pressure. When you’re standing over that shot with water left and OB right, the last thing you need is a mental checklist. See it, feel it, hit it.

Play to Your Strengths (Even If They’re Not Pretty)

Koepka uses a strong grip that wouldn’t pass muster in some teaching circles. But he’s built his game around what works for him, elite driving distance and recovery skills. He doesn’t try to be someone he’s not.

Here’s how to build your game like Brooks:

Look at your last five rounds and figure out where you’re actually gaining strokes. Bombing it off the tee, but can’t hit greens? Lean into it. Play courses where distance matters more than precision. On tight holes, grip down on your 3-wood instead of trying to thread a driver through a keyhole you’ll miss seven times out of ten.

Koepka knows he can scramble, so he’s not afraid to miss greens. If you’re deadly from 50 to 75 yards, start leaving yourself those distances on the par 5’s instead of going for them in two every time.

Know when to take your medicine. Koepka in the trees at the PGA? He’s punching out to 100 yards, not trying to bend a 6-iron around three oaks. You’re in the rough with a flyer lie and water short? Hit your 8-iron to the middle and move on. That’s not playing scared, that’s playing smart.

Save Your Best for When It Counts

Here’s a wild stat: Koepka’s putting average in majors is often more than a full stroke better per round than in regular events. He elevates when pressure is highest.

How does an amateur tap into that gear? It’s not about trying harder, it’s about caring differently.

Here’s what actually works:

Decide which rounds matter to you. Club championship? Member-guest? That annual trip with college buddies? Circle those dates and treat them differently. Koepka doesn’t care much about regular tour events, but majors? That’s when he locks in.

Two weeks before your big round, change your practice. Stop beating balls mindlessly. Play nine holes in which every shot has consequences. Miss the fairway? Hit from the rough on the next hole too. Three-putt? Twenty push-ups. Koepka’s practice intensity ramps up before majors because he’s rehearsing pressure, not just swings.

Develop a between-shot routine that resets your brain. Koepka is famous for his blank expression after bad shots. Try this: After any shot, take three deep breaths while walking, then find something specific to notice, a tree, a cloud, someone’s shirt. That’s your reset button. By the time you reach your ball, the last shot is gone.

The Bottom Line

Brooks Koepka’s return reminds us there’s no single path to success in golf. His “substance over style” approach proves that results matter more than looking good.

You don’t need a perfect swing; you need a reliable one that holds up under pressure. You don’t need to hit every shot in the book; you need the shots you can count on. And you don’t need to play great every time; you need to play great when it matters.

Welcome back, Brooks. Thanks for the reminder that golf is ultimately about getting the ball in the hole, not winning style points.

 

PGA Professional Brendon Elliott is an award-winning coach and golf writer. You can check out his writing work and learn more about him by visiting BEAGOLFER.golf and OneMoreRollGolf.com. Also, check out “Playing Through  now on R.org, RG.org’s partner site, each Monday.

Editor’s note: Brendon shares his nearly 30 years of experience in the game with GolfWRX readers through his ongoing tip series. He looks forward to providing valuable insights and advice to help golfers improve their game. Stay tuned for more tips!

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What we can learn from Blades Brown’s impressive American Express performance

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Blades Brown made a big impression last week in the California desert, and not just because he’s only 18. He put up numbers that would catch any weekend golfer’s attention. Most of us won’t hit 317-yard drives or find 86% of our greens in regulation, but there’s a lot to learn from how Brown managed his game at The American Express.

Here are three practical lessons from his performance that you can use on your own course this weekend.

Step 1: Give Priority to Accuracy Over Distance Off The Tee

Brown’s driving stats are impressive. He averaged almost 318 yards off the tee, ranking 12th in the field. More importantly, he hit 76.79% of his fairways, tying for fourth place in the tournament.

Think about that ratio for a second. Brown could have swung harder, chased more distance and tried to overpower the course. Instead, he played smart golf and kept his ball in play.

Your Action Item: Next time you’re on the tee box, ask yourself a simple question before pulling the driver. Do you need maximum distance here, or do you need to be in the fairway? If there’s trouble lurking or the hole doesn’t demand every yard you can muster, take something off your swing. Grip down an inch. Make a three-quarter swing. Do whatever it takes to find the short grass. Brown’s approach illustrates that fairways lead to greens, and greens lead to birdies. He made 22 of them last week, along with an eagle.

The math is simple. When you’re hitting three out of every four fairways like Brown did, you’re giving yourself legitimate looks at the green with your approach shots. That’s when scoring happens.

Step 2: Commit To Hitting More Greens

This is where Brown really separated himself. He hit 62 of 72 greens in regulation, an 86.11% clip that tied for first in the entire field. Read that again. An 18-year-old kid tied for the lead in one of the most important ball-striking statistics in professional golf.

How did he do it? By keeping his ball in the fairway (see Step 1) and giving himself clean looks with mid-irons and wedges.

Your Action Item: Start tracking your greens in regulation. You don’t need a fancy app or a statistics degree. Just mark down whether you hit the green in the regulation number of strokes. Par 3s in one shot. Par 4s in two shots. Par 5s in three shots.

Once you know your baseline, set a goal to improve it by 10%. If you’re currently hitting five greens per round, aim for six. The beauty of this approach is that it forces you to think strategically about club selection and shot shape. Brown’s strokes gained approach number was positive (0.179), meaning he was better than the field average. You don’t need to be perfect. You just need to be on the dance floor more often.

When you hit more greens, you eliminate the need for heroic short game shots. Brown only had to scramble 10 times all week, and he got up and down 70% of the time. That’s solid, but the real story is that he rarely put himself in scrambling situations to begin with.

Step 3: Minimize Mistakes And Stay Patient

Here’s the stat that jumps off the page: Brown made only three bogeys all week. Three. In four rounds of professional golf against the best players in the world.

He also made just one double bogey. That kind of clean card doesn’t happen by accident. It happens when you play within yourself, avoid the big miss and trust that pars are never bad scores.

Your Action Item: Before your next round, decide that you’re going to play boring golf. No hero shots over water. No driver on tight holes just because you can. No aggressive pins when there’s a safe side of the green.

Brown’s performance shows us that consistency beats flash every single time. He didn’t lead the field in any single strokes gained category, but he was solid across the board. That’s how you post numbers and cash checks.

Give these three steps a try. Your scorecard will thank you.

PGA Professional Brendon Elliott is an award-winning coach and golf writer. You can check out his writing work and learn more about him by visiting BEAGOLFER.golf and OneMoreRollGolf.com. Also, check out “The Starter  now on R.org, RG.org’s partner site, each Monday.

Editor’s note: Brendon shares his nearly 30 years of experience in the game with GolfWRX readers through his ongoing tip series. He looks forward to providing valuable insights and advice to help golfers improve their game. Stay tuned for more tips!

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