Since 2007, the Shell Houston Open has been the springboard to the Masters. Normally played the week prior to the year’s first major, it is the last chance for someone to get to Augusta, and the only way to do so is to win.

The Golf Club of Houston (formerly Redstone Golf Club) in Humble, Texas, has been the host since 2003, and it appears to be yielding one of the strongest fields it has ever had. That’s primarily due to the Rees Jones design acting as an Augusta National prequel. And of the participants, there are 14 players who have combined to win 25 major titles, including five by Phil Mickelson, who is coming off a withdrawal from last week’s Valero Texas Open. Who knows if his oblique muscle strain was real or something to get him home a day earlier once he got far out of contention.

For Jimmy Walker, who played his college golf at nearby Baylor University, being in the field as a three-time PGA Tour winner, which was all accomplished this year, comes on the heels of a barely-made cut.

Many gamers are starting fresh after the Yahoo winter segment ended, and hopefully you’re holding onto a virtual trophy. But with a new segment now in the works, begin planning your strategies accordingly and don’t be afraid to play some hunches on a course that sets up for Masters prep. Here’s a look at some I’ll fool around with this week. It’s Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

With such a strong field this week, season starts to be valued at this point in the year, and a new segment opening up, I want to take a deeper look at some golfers who are likely total hit-or-miss for one reason or another. I really like all five of the Risk picks below, but I will still be calculated in whatever gambles I take. Often that means pairing risk with reward so you don’t wind up with goose eggs on your scorecard and a bottle of Goose in your hands.

Steve Stricker

Last year, he played a limited schedule. This year by comparison makes Steve Stricker look a buddy who pulls his clubs out of the attic every June to go drink a sixer and lose 50 balls in the water. Of course, Stricker practices in the meantime, but he’s played but four events this season and one was match play where he got bounced in the first round. He won’t shoot himself in the foot this week, but the play of recent tournament play provides me trepidation he won’t tear up GCH either. When he was playing a lot, Stricker’s results were impressive. His last two outing were middle of the pack, but before came T4 (’11), T11 (’08), T9 (’07) and solo third (’06) results with one missed cut mixed in. You’d like to use him because he has so many starts available. This could be a good time.

Paul Casey 

In 2009, Paul Casey reached third in the Official World Golf Rankings. In that year, he recorded his first PGA Tour victory at the Shell Houston Open, topping J.B. Holmes in a playoff, then later won the European Tour’s high-profile BMW PGA Championship. But also in that year, he suffered an injury, which slowed his ascent, before his game turned back the other way. His only Tour win is still in Houston, though he does have 12 European Tour and two Asian Tour wins to his credit. A T12 at the Honda Classic a month ago was a nice sign to his game, but he missed the cut at the Valspar and tied for 60th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He has missed his last two cuts at SHO, but I believe he’s nearer his 2009 form than that of his struggling play in more recent memory.

Hunter Mahan

This slot was a tie between Matt Kuchar and Hunter Mahan until Kuchar finally awoke from a semi-slumber and played well for three rounds at the Valero Texas Open. Kuchar will continue to play well, but Mahan needs a top-5 finish to get his year going. And since he withdrew during the final round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a hip injury, it’s a mystery to know what kind of golfer he’ll be this week. But with four top-10s this season and a win at the SHO in 2012, it’s not to say he can’t come out on top again. He’s contended a lot as evidence by T8 (’11), T6 (’09), T5 (’07) and T11 (’06) finishes, but he’s also sprayed in four missed cuts during a 10-year stretch.

Charles Howell III

Charles Howell III may be heading to Augusta this week, but the only way the hometown kid is making the Masters is by winning this week. He has six top-10s this season and he’s entering with a final-round 76 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational to remind him of missed opportunities to slide in using the OWGR. Fortunately for him, he’s played well at the SHO. Last year, tied for 10th, in 2011 he was T19. He’s 6 for 9 with a solo 17th in ’05 as his only other solid result. CH3 is a true risk pick with his last PGA Tour win coming in 2007.

Brian Davis

Davis enters this week with very little to show for his season thus far, outside a couple top-20s. A third-round 76 took him out of brief contention last week, but Davis has shined at the Shell Houston Open. He finished T6 last year with nothing to show for himself in the weeks preceding. In 2012, he finished T4. He’s 5 for 7 at SHO with a T7 in ’05 and a T14 in ’09. Davis is a good under-the-radar pick and in a great spot to use him in Golf Channel’s game.

REWARD

Up until Phil Mickelson withdrew from the Valero Texas Open, I had him pegged to be in the Reward category. This will be the 10th time he’s teed it up at the SHO, and he won in 2011. But now, I don’t have anywhere to slot him. I guess, technically, he’s a Risk, but I’m not even close to considering him. He’s also not been so bad that he’s Ruin either. Lefty is in some weird golf purgatory right now, which is not where you want your game to be heading into Augusta. So for now, here are five I especially like to tame Houston’s fast-paced greens. Apologies to the many elite golfers not named.

Henrik Stenson

Coming off a T5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Stenson enters GCH as a strong favorite thanks to a T3 finish in 2009 and a T2 last year. On this course, hitting greens in regulation will be a big key to success, which is what Stenson did so well at Bay Hill. His GIR sits at just below 70 percent, which would place him in the top 25 on Tour if he qualified. If he hits greens this week, look out.

Rory McIlroy

Outside of Adam Scott, who’s not in the field this week before defending his Masters title, you could make a strong case for McIlroy being the best player in the world. His play this season backs that up this season with a win at the Emirates Australian Open and a loss in a playoff at The Honda Classic. On the European Tour, he’s had a T9 at the Dubai Desert Classic and a T2 at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. McIlroy’s GIR is even better than Stenson’s and would slot him in the top 10 on Tour if he qualified. He’s 2 for 3 in cuts made at the SHO with one top-20, but he is very much at the top of his game in a very young career.

Dustin Johnson

Very few can top the season Johnson has already had. He won his first stroke-play event, has a T6, T2, a solo second-place finish and is coming off a T4 at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. He closed last year’s T4 performance with a final-round 65. While he missed the cut in 2008-09, his game has reached a pinnacle in recent years. He leads the Tour in GIR, birdie average, scoring average and is second in driving distance. All the statistics line up with recent form to make him the top contender this week.

Keegan Bradley

We’re still waiting for Bradley to bust out and grab another win. He came close at Bay Hill with a solo second, which was his eighth top-20 of the season and his best result of the season. He’s 3 for 3 at making the cut at the SHO and tied for 10th a year ago and fourth in 2012. He ranks 22nd in driving distance, which sets up approach shots, and when he gets in trouble, his scrambling gets him out.

Louis Oosthuizen

Oosthuizen is perhaps a bit overlooked with Sergio Garcia, Webb Simpson, Jordan Spieth and others also in the field. But Oosthuizen has a T10 last year, a solo third in 2012 and a T16 the year before. He won the European Tour’s Volvo Golf Champions in December and played well in match play. He hits GIR at a good clip and his pattern of play each year lines up with having a successful week. In a week where you may want to save starts from other big names, Oosty sits as a great alternative across all game formats.

RUIN

While the tournament is competitive, this is still a Masters prep week. And with the course mimicking green speed and set-up for Augusta National, some will find struggles they haven’t in week’s past, nor will some be mentally ready to battle certain veterans under such scrutiny. As always, course history weighs heavily into my evaluations. Context is king.

D.A. Points

Yes, Points won the SHO last year, but no, he won’t win again. His GIR is worse than last year, but oddly enough the trends in his year are the same. So what are we to make of it? Well, even in years prior, he’s missed the cut when playing well. I don’t want to be confused on what to expect when making a selection and he gives me no confidence. I’d bank on a missed cut before a made one.

J.J. Henry

Though he played his college golf in Texas, Henry’s game is in no shape to compete this week. He’s in a swoon of seven missed cuts in his last eight stroke-play events. He’s missed his last two cuts at the SHO, which is the downward trend from four decent results in prior years. Don’t ignore the recent form.

Steven Bowditch

Coming off his first PGA Tour win at the Valero Texas Open, Bowditch will get the rude awakening of playing the week after an emotional victory. Maybe he’s ready, but he really struggled to find fairways in holding off the rest of his competitors. On any other course, he probably doesn’t get away with it. This week, the more technicals aspects of his game will be tested and collection areas around the greens will swallow up errant approaches. He’s 1 for 3 at the SHO and that one made cut was a T56. He also ranks poorly in GIR.

Johnson Wagner

Don’t be blinded by Wagner’s win in 2008. He hasn’t been hitting fairways or greens this year and has missed eight cuts in 11 starts this year. He also missed the cut last year in a 2 for 5 stretch since his win with nothing close to being in contention. Avoid him strongly.

Seung-yul Noh

Noh hasn’t missed a cut since the season-opening Frys.com Open back in October. Since, he’s been towards the back of the back with three top-20s, including a T16 last week that was buoyed by an opening-round 69. But it’s time for that streak to end as he faces a GCH course that’s caused him two miss the cut in his only two appearances. There will be times to use the young South Korean, but now is not one of them.

As always, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you want to talk about the Shell Houston Open, the upcoming Masters or want to discuss why Golf Channel is ridiculously including the LPGA event Kraft Nabisco Championship in weekly picks. Good luck!

This week’s picks

Yahoo!

Group A: H. Stenson (S), M. Kuchar

Group B: D. Johnson (S), R. McIlroy (S), G. DeLaet, K. Bradley

Group C: S. Garcia (S), L. Oosthuizen

(Last week: 174 points; Winter segment: 1,993; Rank: 2,090 – 97th percentile)

PGATour.com

D. Johnson, H. Stenson, S. Garcia, R. McIlroy

(Last week: 352 points; Season: 3,623; Rank: 3,946)

Golf Channel

Shell Houston Open

Group 1: D. Johnson

Group 2: L. Oosthuizen

Group 3: B. Davis

Group 4: J.B. Holmes

Kraft Nabisco Championship

Group 1: I. Park

Group 2: S. Pak

Group 3: H. Kyung Seo

Group 4: L. Wright

(Last week: $389,825; Season: $7,311,605; Mulligan: $28,666; Rank: 5,615 of 34,992)