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Fantasy Cheat Sheet: The 114th U.S. Open

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What’s fun about a major tournament is knowing exactly the challenge every qualified golfer in the field will face. You understand the Masters needs precision on a picturesque Augusta National or to avoid pot bunkers at the British Open.

The U.S. Open brings to image thick rough that swallows up golf balls like Michael Bay swallows up summer action movies. But this is one June where the status quo has been changed.

When the world’s best golfers tee it up Thursday for the season’s second major, Pinehurst No. 2 will not resemble what it did when it was the site of the 1999 and 2005 U.S. Open.

No, the original Donald Ross look has been restored to abandon 40 percent of the rough that had grown in, which is a hugely important note. In its place is a return to the sand soil, wispy waste areas that Ross first used to display the natural North Carolina landscape.

Previous incarnations of this event saw golfers hitting out of three-inch Bermuda grass, while six different cuts were used. Now, Pinehurst No. 2 has just two cuts and rough no longer refers to grass length but just a description of an area that’s not fairway.

During the renovation process, a huge amount of sprinkler heads were removed. The course won’t appear lush. It will look like a beach course, and Pinehurst No. 2 will inevitably involve creativity and patience as it invokes aspects of links golf into its playing style.

[Argumentative Interlude: What is with Yahoo’s lack of initiative in fixing the problems it has in its fantasy golf game? Every other sport, specifically football, undergoes updates and changes, yet golf does nothing. The most obvious problem occurs when weather suspends play, causing trouble with switching out players for the next round. I’m not sure why there isn’t a simple graphic interface to plug in who you want for each round ahead of time. At 1 p.m. Saturday, I was trying to get Charles Howell III into my third-round lineup in replacement of Westwood, who would most likely miss the cut. (Word to the wise, be aware of what the cutline is and that usually top 70 plus ties make the weekend). However, Yahoo only ever allowed it to be a change for the final round, when clearly the second round wasn’t over yet. This is my plea that Yahoo makes changes to what is the best fantasy game out there, since it would only make the product that much better.]

For fantasy gamers needing a boost, Pinehurst No. 2 offers a chance to get away from the norms of American golf. This throwback course brings to mind images of turn-of-the-century golf. Architects Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw’s agronomy work has brought Pinehurst No. 2 back into the consciousness of the elite golf courses in the country but with a reverence that elicits thoughts one might have of St. Andrews.

It’s time to break down what I find to be keys to navigating what will still be a treacherous and true test of golf expertise. It’s the 114th U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2, and this is Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

473643_watson

Credit Coore and Crenshaw for making golfers think. It won’t just be hitting a fairway that is important, but also which direction to go. Then it will be in what position will provide for best approach. The challenges mentally will be numerous, and the learning curve will be steep. As such, a strong short game will be a huge advantage this week, as will distance control. Long drivers will have opportunities, but if they get in the sand or firm ground, they won’t be able be able to spin the ball to keep it on the putting surface. This is where running the ball up, a la links golf, will surface. I’m looking at guys with touch around the green, the ability to scramble and an ability to hang on when scores are high.

Bubba Watson

This is easily the best year of Watson’s career and “Bubba Golf” should be in full effect this week. But does that mean he’ll have success because he can be creative and not have to worry about deep rough, or will he literally be playing from another fairway because he’s over-spraying it with his pink driver? One thing Watson doesn’t know how to do is shelve his favorite club. While he ranks sixth in GIR and second in bogey avoidance, his scrambling is average and he’s not good at all from greenside bunkers. The two-time Masters champ epitomizes risk/reward and it’s certainly tempting given the six top-threes he’s posted this season, while also recording a T11 at Kiawah in 2012.

Jason Day

jason day

Day is risky given his thumb injury has kept him off the course for so long that he may not be fine tuned. But this year’s Accenture Match Play champion is a two-time U.S. Open runner-up, which is just a nice fact since he is still quite young. He played the Memorial two weeks ago to the tune of a T37, but he also missed the cut at Kiawah. Day has displayed an ability hit GIR and flies the ball quite high. If he qualified, his sand save percentage would rank No. 1 on Tour.

Jimmy Walker

I think very few people will talk about Walker this week as he isn’t accurate off the tee. But the three-time Tour winner this season has the distance and has made up shots on approach and on the green. Ranking 23rd in GIR and fifth in Strokes Gained-Putting, Walker has shown his victories weren’t a fluke by subsequently posting a T8 at The Masters and a T6 at The Players. He’s coming off a T10 at Colonial and is a decent pick in Yahoo C given his sturdiness.

Justin Rose

justin rose

Last year’s U.S. Open winner was on a solid PGA Tour run of success until a missed cut at the Memorial. He just seems to show up in big events, which was on display in the 2012 PGA Championship at sandy Kiawah Island (see below for more) when he finished T3. His stats are definitely nothing to write home about, but Rose is 14th in sand saves and 22nd in scrambling. He says he’s built his game to win majors and that’s no longer debatable.

Bill Haas

A North Carolina native, Haas has yet to fair well in a U.S. Open. He has four top-10s this season, including a T8 at the Memorial upon which he enters. He missed the cut at last year’s British and T32 at Kiawah. Statistically, Haas is hitting it pretty well, coming in 17th in GIR, 42nd in SG-P and fifth in sand saves. His scrambling could be a little better, but it’s not a deal breaker. The best thing that can be said about him is he’s a grinder and seems to appear just when you push him from your mind.

REWARD

rory mcilroy

I think you can basically throw out past U.S. Open success aside from 1999 and 2005, because of course familiarity, but I’d also look at major results in similar type of environments. The first is in the British Open, and the second is at the 2012 PGA Championship, since Kiawah Island’s Ocean Course has similar challenges with bunkers and sandy waste areas, with the addition of challenging rough and windy conditions. In addition, Kiawah Island is also longer than Pinehurst No. 2 by 200 yards and has operated as a hard, fast track in an environment where pin locations and stint meters will run to the extreme.

Rory McIlroy

The runaway 2012 PGA Championship winner, McIlroy is long off the tee, flights the ball high and is in extremely good form. If you do want to consider U.S. Open history, well McIlroy has one of those trophies, too. The young Irishman is smart enough to understand when to holster his driver and play conservatively, as he displayed three weeks ago at the European Tour’s BMW PGA Championship and as he did three years ago at Congressional. On the PGA Tour this year, McIlroy has six top-10s in nine starts and is coming off a T15 at the Memorial. He also has a T3 at the 2010 British Open, and statistically he ranks 28th in GIR. His approach will be to keep it in the fairway, hit the middle of the green and keep from going off, since his short game still leaves something to be desired.

Phil Mickelson

Probably the emotional favorite as he looks to win the only major he hasn’t yet captured, Mickelson’s short game puts him on the Reward list. He has yet to snag a top-10 finish, but Lefty does have seven top-20s and is coming of a T11 last week, which is probably the best full-swing form he’s displayed all year. He was the runner-up in 1999 to Payne Stewart and finished ’05 at T33. He was T36 at Kiawah, and of course know about his Masters success and how he captured the British Open crown last year. Mickelson feels most people aren’t going to hit a lot of greens, which favors his ranking of 8th in sand saves and 36th in GIR. You know he’s locked in mentally, which is good for course strategy and knowing when to not use driver.

Henrik Stenson

henrik stenson

It would be wise to balance any aggressive picks, such as Watson, with a ball-striker, such as Stenson. The Swede comes in with a recent success at his home country’s Nordea Masters, finishing fifth. He also tied for seventh at the BMW PGA Championship, played The Masters to a T14, while statistically he ranks seventh in total driving and 53rd in GIR. Has shown he can contend at all the biggest Tour stops, while Stenson also owns a T3 at the 2010 British Open. When he makes putts, he’s deadly, as evidenced by his impressive run through the FedEx Cup playoffs last year.

Dustin Johnson

We all know Johnson is long off the tee, but did you know he ranks 16th in ballstriking? He’s not a half-bad scrambler either and sits at 12th in GIR. The key to his week will be how he does with his short game. He’s done well with links golf, and he’s done well this season with a win and six other top-10s, plus he played last week’s FedEx St. Jude Classic and came away with a solid T24. Johnson’s game is very similar to McIlroy’s, making the South Carolina boy (read: coastal-familiar player) just as dangerous as he looks for the first major win of his career.

Adam Scott

adam scott

I can think of very few better right now with distance control than that of the top-ranked golfer in the world. Let me reinforce that: Adam Scott enters ranked No. 1 and he’s earned it. Rarely would you leave the world’s best out of your lineup, since they’ve most likely proved it on the biggest stage. Scott has, having won the 2007 Players Championship and the 2013 Masters. The U.S. Open has been the weakest major for the Aussie, but Pinehurst No. 2’s new look should help there. A winner recently at the Crowne Plaza Invitational, Scott was T4 at the Memorial and is familiar with sandy waste areas from his days of collegiate golf at UNLV. He ranks third in total driving, 25th in GIR, 15th in SG-P, third in sand saves, 41st in scrambling and 16th in bogey avoidance. You can feel safe with him and pair with someone risky.

RUIN

graham delaet

Ruin in a major looks different from other tournaments. Just run down Golf Channel’s Group D and you’ll find plenty of names to avoid. You can run away from Asian Tour winners, plenty of amateurs and participants only in the field from sectional qualifying. I’m looking for guys you may very well end up picking, but would be fortunate to finish within the top-25. They may play well for a round but will leave you wishing you’d gone with a better name in place of them. Regrets are horrible in fantasy golf, and with two weeks left in the segment, you’re either going to get risky to make up ground or you need to play it safe to hold a lead. Know which side you fall on and don’t get caught grasping.

Graham DeLaet

DeLaet keeps scoring well and he now has seven top-10 finishes this season after a recent T7 at the HP Byron Nelson Championship. He enters off a T14 at Colonial, but he has yet to show he’s capable of closing tournaments or even in making the cut at the hardest ones. Two of his three missed cuts this season are at The Masters and The Players. He missed the cut last year at the PGA Championship, finished 83rd at the British and didn’t play Kiawah in ’12. While he’s No. 1 on Tour in GIR, he’s 130th in Strokes Gained-Putting, 94th in sand saves and 89th in scrambling.

Victor Dubuisson

A true scare this week, we haven’t heard much from the Frenchman since he challenged Day for the match play title. He’s coming a playoff loss at the Nordea Masters and has a flair for creativity as we saw in the Arizona desert, but Dubuisson needs to be better off the tee in finding fairways. He’s been getting it done in hitting GIR and scrambling, but doesn’t have much of a track record on American soil, let alone in a tough major. If you want to fly by the seat of your pants, pair him with Sergio Garcia and hope for the best, but be forewarned.

Matthew Fitzpatrick

matthew fitzpatrick

The U.S. Amateur champion will turn pro after the U.S. Open, but before that Fitzpatrick will get paired with the defending champion Rose and sentimental favorite Mickelson. He should be plenty nervous teeing it up next to them, and this is no place to be mentally unfocused. Until he plays a little more on Tour, presume him to be like any rookie that will take their lumps before success happens.

Rickie Fowler

People keep thinking Fowler will contend, but all he is right now is a popular name, due more to his orange appearance than the state of his game. He ranks 109th in driving accuracy, 144th in GIR, 143rd in Strokes Gained-Putting, 53rd in sand saves and 39th in scrambling. While he tied for 13th at St. Jude, he missed his two previous cuts and missed the cut at last year’s British despite everyone’s insistence he was made for links golf. He also missed the cut at Kiawah and I don’t think he has what it takes to scratch out even a top 25 this week.

Ernie Els

ernie els

Coming off a T19 at the Memorial, Els is one of the few in the field who played both in ’99 and ’05. Els is still struggling to find fairways and greens, and his putter has let him down too. And his touch around the green is also suspect. He tied for 48th at Kiawah, missed the cut at Pinehurst No. 2 in ’99 and tied for 15th in ’05. So to summarize, Els doesn’t resemble the golfer who won the U.S. Opens in 1994 and ’97. While his links golf is generally very good, it’s still not a complete links course and there are better options available.

Thanks for reading. You can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you’d like to talk fantasy selections. Apologies to Sergio Garcia and Jim Furyk, who I have a lot of faith in this week. If you’d like to discuss sleepers or omissions, please do so below. Best of luck and enjoy the U.S. Open!

This week’s picks:

Yahoo!

Group A: A. Scott (S), L. Donald

Group B: R. McIlroy (S), D. Johnson (S), J. Furyk, J. Rose

Group C: S. Garcia (S), J. Walker

(Last week: 131 points; Spring segment: 1,499; Spring rank: 2,831; Season points: 3,492; Full Season rank: 824 – 99th percentile)

PGATour.com

R. McIlroy, A. Scott, D. Johnson, S. Garcia

(Last week: 208 points; Season: 5,632; Rank: 4,165)

Golf Channel

Group 1: A. Scott

Group 2: D. Johnson

Group 3: R. Goosen

Group 4: A. Baddeley

(Last week: $78,287; Season: $10,419,807; Mulligan: $78,287; Rank: 10,057 of 39,512)

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Brian Miller is a sports writer of over eight years and his work has appeared in the Chicago Sun-Times, Miami Herald and Tallahassee Democrat. He's a fantasy golf nut and his golf novel will be published in spring 2014. You may find him on Twitter @bricmiller.

5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. Double Mocha Man

    Jun 12, 2014 at 12:49 am

    I think everyone is overlooking Webb Simpson. He finished 3rd last week and won the U.S. Open two years ago. He is on nary a list…

  2. A.J. Cardella

    Jun 11, 2014 at 11:41 pm

    Senden

    that is all

  3. evenStephen

    Jun 11, 2014 at 11:26 am

    Your thoughts on Schwartzel, Dufner, and McDowell?

    My sleeper is Billy Horschel .. Let me hear it.

  4. Canadian love

    Jun 10, 2014 at 5:12 pm

    Good luck Graham DeLaet!!! Let’s do this!!!

    • Brian Miller

      Jun 10, 2014 at 5:52 pm

      I won’t lie, I’d like to see him win. I’m just not sure this will be the week.

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