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Fantasy Cheat Sheet: AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am
I really have no desire to watch Kid Rock play golf. Fall off a Pacific cliff while attempting to swing a club? To quote the movie Django Unchained, “Gentlemen, you had my curiosity, but now you have my attention.”
And if we’re involving musicians and movie stars whose talent on the links is questionable at best, it must be time for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am.
What’s not to love about this tournament? Split between three beautiful courses (Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill, Monterey Peninsula) for the first 54-holes when pros and amateurs will be paired off prior to a cut, the scenery alone is entertaining. Although without Bill Murray in the celebrity field, I do feel a void that cannot be filled unless surfer Kelly Slater performs some kind of trick shot while riding a killer wave.
The professional field includes a lineup of past champions, such as last year’s winner Brandt Snedeker or Phil Mickelson, who will be looking for win No. 5 at this tournament.
With three days of play at different courses each day, and the courses of unequal par, any fantasy owners in leagues that require day-to-day changes should be aware of how each course plays, but also not be scared off by a higher score on one day. Ride your selection like Slater does a pipeline, and let’s take a look at some of the rocky dangers out there on the way to euphoria. It’s Risk, Reward, Ruin.
RISK
Recent form has changed how many may view several of my risky selections, but by no means does that mean don’t use them. Rather, it’s sort of a “buyer beware” tag that must be read before indulgence. In fact, I have no problem running out any of these five this week, and two actually do make many of my lineups.
Brandt Snedeker
As I outlined, Snedeker is the defending champion, and if you’ve read this column in past weeks, you’d know I’m still high on Snedeker despite his slow start to this season. Recently, he said he is 100 percent healthy after the freak knee injury suffered last November. It’s taken time for Snedeker to get going this year, unlike last, when he blistered courses for six straight weeks, culminating in a win at Pebble. He isn’t likely to duplicate that this week, but his touch with the flat stick means he can’t be discounted if everything begins clicking with his now-healed lower body.
Phil Mickelson
Lefty is one of those guys who can play bad for a couple weeks and will give us a quote such as, “I feel like my game is coming around and I’m really driving the ball well. I’m just not scoring well.” One week he’s off the radar and the next he wins a tournament. This could set up like 2012 when Mickelson performed ho-hum at the Waste Management Phoenix Open then won at Pebble Beach. And since the four-time Pebble champion has historically played well here even regardless of victory, there’s little to shy from. Oh, except for that back issue, which did allow him to play four days in Phoenix. There’s your risk.
Graeme McDowell
This will be McDowell’s first start of the calendar year and his first since early December. He’s played well in two unofficial PGA Tour events and well at the WGC-HSBC Champions tournament in November. Now he returns to the site of his only major championship title, the 2010 U.S. Open. But he hasn’t played Pebble Beach since then, and he’s only played the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am on one occasion— 2006 when he missed the cut. I don’t like that he tends to hover near even-par and doesn’t shoot particularly low, especially for consecutive days. He’s a solid golfer to say the least, just don’t let the U.S. Open win fool you.
Jim Furyk
If Furyk can eliminate the one high round he shoots at this tournament, which typically occurs as the course rotation does, you could be looking at a top-10 finish. The last two years, it was a round in the mid-70’s that ballooned his finish. Even back in 2007, when he finished T6 at 11-under, it was a 76 on Saturday that ruined the 67, 65 and final-round 69 he put together. But seriously, how solid is Furyk’s game? He’s had a Hall of Fame career and even at 43-years old keeps posting strings of top-10 finishes.
Charlie Wi
This could be one of those “horse for the course” picks, but I get it if you don’t use him. He missed the cut last week and he’s been moderately successful in the weeks prior. But then you look at his history at Pebble Beach and you just wonder how it clicks as well as it does for him there. A T16 last year, solo second in 2012, and a host of other strong rounds mixed in throughout the years. And, yes, in his second-place finish he shot a Monterey Peninsula course-record 61 on the opening day. I may go for broke on Monterey with him and switch for other rounds to someone stable like Jimmy Walker, who has been just as much a horse for the course in his career (T3 last year, T9 twice before that).
REWARD
I’m not sure why Graham DeLaet isn’t playing this week, but given that Snedeker scored second at the WMPO last year and walked out of Pebble with a win the week after, the Canadian would be as close to a sure thing this week with his recent stretch of upward-trending hot play. But since he’s not, four big names takes center stage and one recent winner in this week’s batch of Reward selections.
Hunter Mahan
Sean Foley pupils just seem to need a few tournaments under their belt before they really begin swinging the club well from tee box to green. Like Tiger Woods, Mahan is one such pupil whose mechanics seem to be catching up to his talent. He opened his 2013-14 season in strong fashion at the WMPO and now looks to grab a victory at a spot where he’s had three consecutive years of top-20 finishes. This includes a solo second result in 2011. Last year, Mahan won the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championships and the Shell Houston Open following weeks of casual results. I like him to finish in the top-10 and to me he’s the most secure golfer to navigate any course irregularities through consistent iron work.
Dustin Johnson
Born on the Eastern coast in South Carolina where he also attended college, Johnson seems to be at home on courses where the wind can blow and views of the ocean can be see. He already has a win in his first start of the season (World Golf Championships-HSBC CHampions), and he finished T6 at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions after a month break so there’s zero worry now with this being the first tournament he’s played since the first week of January. Johnson may be the longest driver on Tour and has really compartmentalized his height into a consistent approach near the greens. Oh, by the way, he’s also a two-time champion at Pebble Beach (’09, ’10) and has a T5 (’12) since then. He’s my pick to win, yet again.
Jason Day
Though he has just one PGA Tour win to his name, Day has developed a reputation as a high-stakes player. If it’s a major, Day is usually in contention. And while this isn’t a major, what it does tell you is the Aussie is supremely close to being an every-day elite golfer. He finished sixth last year at 13-under and finished T14 in his go-round in ’09. He also didn’t miss a single cut last year and finished T2 at the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago at Torrey Pines.
Jordan Spieth
Spieth showed the golf world he should not be taken lightly by finishing second at the Hyundai TOC in January. He missed the cut at the Sony Open before putting together a top-20 at the Farmers despite a sore ankle. Now properly rested, Spieth is ready to tackle the course where he finished T22 in his second Tour start. He could get white hot any time and obliterate any notion of a sophomore slump.
Patrick Reed
Reed keeps building off of last year’s dream run to the FedEx Cup finale. If you haven’t read anything about him, I’ll spare the recap, but it’s still phenomenal to think how the former NCAA champion at Augusta State has put together two wins in such a short span of time with a wife as his caddy and Monday qualifiers as last year’s best friend. We’re now three tournaments removed from the site of his second victory at the Humana Challenge, but Reed shows no signs of slowing down. He finished T19 last week after a week to rest his ribs and he’s been such a great scorer recently it could be near impossible to leave him off a lineup this week for fear he could go super low once again. He shot 12-under last year, good for T7 in his debut at Pebble Beach.
RUIN
Many times, this Ruin bit is really for fantasy leagues such as Golf Channel’s where your Group 4 could have several names you’re unfamiliar with and you think “Oh hell, I’ll just take this guy.” It could be those little decisions that cost several hundred thousand in fictional winnings, especially through the course of year. Don’t think of any pick as a throwaway because history can tell you a lot. And a missed cut gets you nowhere fast.
George McNeill
Ranked 294th in the world, McNeill hung a T7 in his first start of the season at the Frys.com Open. But since he’s had a string of subpar outcomes, including a missed cut last week. At Pebble Beach in 2012, the year he won the Puerto Rico Open, he missed the cut, as he did the year before. Two MC’s in two tries? You can do much better.
Chris Stroud
Stroud just turned 31 a couple days ago and ranks 84th in the world. With T3 finishes twice this year and two-20’s, including last week’s WMPO, he may still have a solid career and get that first Tour victory. But Pebble Beach hasn’t been kind to Stroud. He’s missed the cut the last four years since a T6 in 2009 broke a string off two MC’s before that.
Geoff Ogilvy
There have been a couple times over the past year where Ogilvy, a seven-time champion, has resembled the golfer of his prime (mustache excluded). But to this point this season, he has missed two cuts and been a non-factor. A T29 at the WMPO last week was nice and netted him a little money, but with MC’s in two of his last three trips to Pebble, there’s nothing to suggest picking him is anything other than a tip of the cap to his career standing, not his current form.
J.J. Henry
Henry has missed his last two cuts, which is a significant trend downward with seven tournaments already under his belt this season. Last year at Pebble, he finished T69, and the year before missed the cut. And aside from a T15 finish in 2011, he has missed the cut five other times with no standout rounds dating back to the beginning of his career.
Vijay Singh
Looking back on history, Singh has had one truly good Tournament at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. That came in 2008 when he finished second in a playoff. But since then the 34-time Tour winner has done nothing of note, other than hover around the cutline. At 50, his best years are undoubtedly behind him.
As always, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you want to talk about the tournament or if you have any fantasy lineup inquiries. Good luck!
This week’s picks
Yahoo!
A: P. Mickelson (S), P. Reed
B: H. Mahan (S), D. Johnson (S), J. Day, J. Spieth
C: C. Wi (S), J. Walker
(Last week: 184 points; Winter segment: 860 points; Rank: 3,508)
PGATour.com
D. Johnson, J. Day, H. Mahan, J. Spieth
(Last week: 535 points; Season: 1,909; Rank: 4,268)
Golf Channel
Group 1: D. Johnson
Group 2: P. Reed
Group 3: C. Wi
Group 4: T. van Aswegen
(Last week: $726,764; Season: $2,438,239; Mulligan: $63,115; Rank: 10,133)
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Morning 9: Tiger confirms playing schedule | Player: This caused Tiger’s downfall
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Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
GolfWRX is on site this week in McKinney, Texas, at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson (FKA the AT&T Byron Nelson).
Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Jason Day ended a five-year winless streak. J-Day is in the field again, as are Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris.
We have our usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums for your perusal. As always, we’ll continue to add links to additional albums as they make their way to us from the Lone Star State.
Check out links to all our photos below.
General Albums
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #3
WITB Albums
- Pierceson Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kris Kim – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- David Nyfjall – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Jarred Jetter – North Texas PGA Section Champ – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Richy Werenski – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Wesley Bryan – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Parker Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Peter Kuest – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Blaine Hale, Jr. – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kelly Kraft – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Rico Hoey – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Pullout Albums
- Adam Scott’s 2 new custom L.A.B. Golf putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Scotty Cameron putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Ben Griffin playing Maxfli golf ball
See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.
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News
Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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yo!
Feb 4, 2014 at 4:36 pm
This is the one golf tournament where the amateurs are the attractions and draw and the pros are the supporting cast. Unless you’re tiger or phil, people are there to watch and be entertained by the entertainers.
Brian Miller
Feb 5, 2014 at 12:59 am
I don’t think that’s entirely correct; I’d still place the majority of the draw on the pros, but the interaction between celebs and pros is certainly unique in that they have to focus on playing well while at the same time entertain and not be distracted by antics (see: anything Bill Murray does ever). That said, there’s definitely an extra benefit to purchasing a ticket knowing you’ll get to see celebs. I just wish the amateur field was stronger. Quite weak IMO.
yo!
Feb 5, 2014 at 2:27 pm
I’m not discounting the pros. I think people who go want to see both the pros and celebs. The interesting thing about this tournament is that the pros are playing with and next to the amateurs throughout their rounds as opposed to a separate pro-am day which doesn’t count much for the pros.
steve simonds
Feb 5, 2014 at 1:49 pm
i would completely agree. i go every year and no one in our pavilion really cares who WINS the pro-am but if they get to see enough of the celebrity they came out for. golf is definitely secondary.
Brian Miller
Feb 5, 2014 at 3:37 pm
What do you think of the celeb field this year?