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Opinion & Analysis

2013 U.S. Open: Picks and Preview

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The first tee balls will be in the air at the 113th edition of the U.S. Open when Cliff Kresge, Roger Tambellini and Ryan Yip tee off at 6:50 a.m. EST Thursday. A rain-soaked Merion Golf Club plays host to the game’s best, and traditional U.S. Open contenders may be bypassed by bomb-and-gougers and players who love to take the low line and strike their putts with pace, due to the soft and soggy conditions.

Of course, the grounds crew and legion of volunteers (many of them superintendents themselves) will invest endless hours and devote all available resources to getting the course ready to play in a collective Herculean effot.

However, with thunderstorms forecasted for Thursday and a 90 percent chance of rain, they appear to be fighting a losing battle with Mother Nature in general, and the remnants of Tropical Storm Andrea, in particular.

Here’s a look at who could win at muddy Merion.

Tiger Woods: 9-2 odds

In what is surely a surprise to no golf fan, Tiger Woods is the prohibitive favorite to win at Merion. He’ll be able to keep his driver in the bag this week and lean on his new friend (no, not Sergio Garcia) the Nike VR_S Covert 3 wood. He’s hitting nearly 68 percent of greens in regulation this year and is fifth in strokes gained-putting. With his atrocious putting performance at the Memorial Tournament firmly in the rearview mirror, Woods is more ready to return to major glory than he has been at any point during his five year drought.

Sergio Garcia: 33-1 odds

Bear with me on this one. Yes, there’s the saga that would make Colonel Sanders blush, and yes, Sergio Garcia melted down at The Players, has said he’ll never win a major, etc. However, with minimal winds and soft conditions, Garcia’s ball-striking prowess could leave him in position to pour in a lot of putts at Merion. Also, if you hadn’t been paying attention, Sergio, with his new grip and his, well, new grip, has moved from 144th in strokes gained-putting in 2011 to second this year.

matt-kuchar-memorial-pga-tour-win_r640

Matt Kuchar: 20-1 odds

The hottest golfer in the game right now has had two fantastic performances in a row. The newly bearded Matt Kuchar finished second at the Crowne Plaza Invitational and then won the Memorial Tournament in just the sort of “fairways and greens” manner that wins U.S. Opens. His confidence in his arm-lock putting style has paid dividends as well, and should again at Hugh Wilson’s Pennsylvania masterpiece.

Adam Scott: 22-1 odds

It’s obviously improbable that the Masters champion will win the U.S. Open. However, Adam Scott, who did well at the U.S. Open at the Olympic Club last year (placing 15th), has finished inside the top 20 in both of his starts since winning the Masters. Scotty is a good high-ball hitter who could go flag hunting at Merion. If his putter performs, there’s no reason this couldn’t be the brace for the Australian.

graeme-mcdowell

Graeme McDowell: 20-1 odds

The most accurate driver on Tour this season and one of the best putters (13th in strokes gained-putting), Graeme McDowell has won twice in his last four starts. He’s also a U.S. Open stalwart, making the cut in all seven of his appearances. The Ulsterman won in 2010 and placed second last year. The only concern with McDowell on paper is his length, however at this year’s shorter U.S. Open venue, with its rain-soaked and receptive greens, G-Mac could easily hoist his second U.S. Open Trophy.

Justin Rose: 22-1 odds

It’s almost fashionable in golf circles to remember the lanky amateur at the 1998 Open Championship, and ask, “Where has the time gone?” Justin Rose, now 15 years removed from that seminal moment, is now 32. He’s a card-carrying member of the best golfers without a major club. Rose just finished tied for eighth at the Memorial, so he enters Merion in good form. The Englishman is 156th in strokes gained-putting, but if he starts to roll a few in this week, the tournament could be his.

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Brandt Snedeker: 28-1 odds

Beware the sick golfer, as they say. Brandt Snedeker has struggled since withdrawing from the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship with a rib injury earlier this year. At the Memorial Tournament, he fired a second-round 80 and missed the cut, and he missed the cut at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Classic, as well. However, if Snedeker, one of the most accurate drivers on Tour, keeps the ball in the fairway and doesn’t have to wage war on Merion’s rough, he can certainly make the putts to win.

Lee Westwood: 28-1 odds

Another injured golfer, Lee Westwood, who hurt a finger at the Players Championship, could overpower Merion. Once comically bad around the green, Westwood now ranks third and eighth in scrambling and sand save percentage, respectively. Westy also finished inside the top 10 at the past two U.S. Opens. In 2011, at a soft venue with accessible pins at Congressional, he finished second. Last year, at the difficult Olympic Club, he finished tied for tenth. Clearly then, he’s comfortable with both extremes of the U.S. Open venue spectrum.

Phil Mickelson

Phil Mickelson: 16-1 odds

It’s doubtful that anyone is happier about the receptive greens which await the players at Merion than Phil Mickelson. The perennially aggressive pinseeking left-hander won’t need a driver in his hand at the U.S. Open this year. Thus, he should find more fairways than the 53 percent he has averaged for the year. If he does, and he continues to putt well (eighth in strokes gained-putting), Lefty could carry the momentum of last week’s tie for second at the FedEx St. Jude to victory. On another note, after Mickelson’s Monday practice round was rained out he decided to return to San Diego to attend his daughter’s 8th-grade graduation. He’ll be back for his 7:11 a.m. tee time on Thursday, and we’ll quickly see if it has caused him to be more focused or out of sorts.

Steve Stricker: 40-1 odds 

It’s tough to get a read on the state of Steve Stricker’s game, as he hasn’t played in a while. Stricker, who is beginning the long walk into the sunset, is playing a limited schedule this year… and he’s playing it pretty well. One can assume he’ll come into the U.S. Open practiced, prepared, and relaxed. If he does this, and putts like he’s capable of putting, he could be a major champion come Sunday.

*odds according to Bovada.com

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GolfWRX Editor-in-Chief

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Dayjur

    Jun 12, 2013 at 7:25 pm

    Where are the bottom line picks? You’re kidding me you are tipping all those ^ … Haven’t added it up to the button but there’s near on 60% of margin there… in American speak that is -162

    I’m taking Charl over Donald @ -110
    Woods O/R @ +600 EW 7 places
    Gmac O/R +3400 EW 6 places
    Lefty O/R +2600 EW 7 places

    23% margin

  2. Tom Davis

    Jun 12, 2013 at 1:27 pm

    Rory doesn’t even get a mention? #2 in the world? I know he’s in a bit of a slump, but on a rain-softened course with US Open setup he’s got a pretty good record (Congressional anyone?). I’m not putting my hard-earned dollars on him, but then I wouldn’t put them on Phil, Snedeker, or Sergio either.

  3. Troy Vayanos

    Jun 12, 2013 at 6:52 am

    I think the shorter golf course will suit G-Mac down to the ground. As long as you say he can find the fairways he has a great shot.

    I’d like to see Phil finally win a US Open. I’d also like to see Tiger finally break through for major number 15.

    Lot’s of questions will be answered after this week.

  4. B MAC

    Jun 12, 2013 at 12:21 am

    Zach Johnson all the way !!

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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