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The 20 players who can actually win The Masters

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I create a filter to help predict the golfers who are most likely to win the Masters. I usually get the list down to roughly 23 or 24 players that meet the criterion. In last year’s event, I had Jordan Spieth as one of my top-10 picks and he won the event at 8/1 odds.

Before I discuss my picks of this year’s Masters, which includes 20 players, I want to go over what I call the “critical holes” for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes on the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in scores exist. One of the interesting aspects about critical holes is that they often change over time due to changes in the course conditions, course design or a change in player strategy, and that creates a smaller deviation in scores.

MastersHole12

Augusta National: Hole No. 12

The critical holes are projected to be holes No. 7, No. 12, No. 14, No. 15 and No. 18. These are almost the same projected critical holes as in 2015. The only difference is that the 14th hole has now been added to the list.

The 18th hole is actually the most critical hole on the course. Over the past five Masters, the field has average 4.2108 on the 18th hole while the top finishers during that timeframe have averaged 3.8611 strokes. One of the beauties of Augusta is the finishing hole is the most critical hole in the event statistically, while you have all of these other holes that are much more picturesque and memorable.

The hole that is dropping the most in terms of being critical is the par-5 13th hole. It was the third-most critical in 2014 and now it is the sixth-most critical.

Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out the past champions who are well past their time being competitive at Augusta, and the amateurs. Those 16 players include:

• Bard, Derek
• Chaplet, Paul
• Couples, Fred
• DeChambeau, Bryson
• Immelman, Trevor
• Jin, Cheng
• Johnson, Zach
• Langasque, Romain
• Langer, Bernhard
• Lyle, Sandy
• Mize, Larry
• O’Meara, Mark
• Schmitz, Sammy
• Watson, Tom
• Weir, Mike
• Woosnam, Ian

I also eliminated any first-time invitees, as the only first-time invitee to ever win at Augusta was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Those 13 players include:

• Aphibarnrat, Kiradech
• Berger, Daniel
• Cabrera-Bello, Rafael
• Gomez, Fabian
• Grillo, Emiliano
• Herman, Jim
• Kaufman, Smylie
• Kisner, Kevin
• Knox, Russell
• Lingmerth, David
• Merritt, Troy
• Smith, Cameron
• Sullivan, Andy
• Thomas, Justin

Out of the group of first-time invitees, I would pay close attention to Daniel Berger, as he has a game that is a very good fit for Augusta because of the strong play from 150-225 yards in his short career. He also hits it long and high and one area he struggles with is accuracy off the tee which is not a large factor at Augusta.

Unfortunately, I have to eliminate nine international players because I do not have enough statistical information on their playing performance in the past four months. Last year, I eliminated five international players that I had insufficient data on as well. Only one of them made the cut last year anyway (Darren Clarke T52):

• An, Byeong-Hun
• Clarke, Darren
• Dubuisson, Victor
• Fitzpatrick, Matthew
• Jaidee, Thongchai
• Kaymer, Martin
• Kjeldsen, Søren
• Lahiri, Anirban
• Wiesberger, Bernd

I will also eliminate Jim Furyk, as he has not compiled enough data and he may not play in The Masters due to his wrist injury.

The Zach Johnson Debate

Every year I do my Masters picks it will always get pointed out that I do not pick former Masters Champion Zach Johnson, due to his lack of length off the tee. Augusta National greatly favors long ball hitters. They can play the par-5’s more like par-4’s and typically the longer hitters can also hit the ball higher so they can get those long approach shots to hold the green.

When Johnson won the Masters in 2007, the event featured record low temperatures in the mid-40’s and wind gusts of 33 mph. This made it very hard for any player to reach the par-5’s in two shots and allowed Johnson to get into a wedge contest on the par-5’s where he excels at. The weather is scheduled to be in the high 60’s to mid-70’s and unless that changes by 30+ degrees and wind gusts double, I don’t see having a very good chance to win the event. Along with Johnson, I would eliminate these short hitters as well:

• Kirk, Chris
• Kuchar, Matt
• McDowell, Graeme
• Taylor, Vaughn

Even more damning is the players who hit the ball too low. This is based on the Apex Height measurement, determined with Trackman on the PGA Tour. Last year, I had six players in the “too low of a trajectory to win at Augusta.” Five of the six players made the cut, but the best finish was a T12 by Kevin Na. Making the cut is one thing, but getting into contention and possibly winning is another story:

• Dufner, Jason
• Grace, Branden
• Moore, Ryan
• Na, Kevin
• Streb, Robert

Furthermore, since the inauguration of the event, there have only been two winners of the Masters who had previously never made the cut: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, and Gene Sarazen in 1936. Let’s rule them out as well. They are:

• English, Harris
• Lee, Danny
• Lowry, Shane
• Wood, Chris

Out of the group above, I like Lowry and Lee’s chances. Both are adept iron players and Lee hits the ball very high (sixth highest on Tour) and is a good putter.

I also eliminated the players who missed the cut at the Shell Houston Open this week, because historically the odds of a player missing the cut the previous week and winning the next week are extremely slim. Furthermore, the Golf Club of Houston plays similarly to Augusta. Last year there were five players who were not previously filtered out that missed the cut at Houston. Of those five players, only three made the cut and the best finish was a T19 by Louis Oosthuizen.

If a player did not play well at Houston, the odds are that they will not play well at a similar style of course like Augusta National.

• Bowditch, Steven
• Koepka, Brooks
• Mahan, Hunter
• Oosthuizen, Louis
• Singh, Vijay
• Streelman, Kevin
• Westwood, Lee

Another key metric at Augusta is long approach shots, which I call “Red Zone” play. The Red Zone are approach shots from 175-225 yards. Last year, there were 15 players on my list of weak Red Zone performers, Mickelson was on the list and came in second. However, Mickelson has traditionally been a great Red Zone performer up until last season.

• Cabrera, Angel
• Donaldson, Jamie
• Els, Ernie
• Haas, Bill
• Horschel, Billy
• Piercy, Scott
• Snedeker, Brandt
• Walker, Jimmy

Lastly, I started a metric two years ago called “Adjusted Straight-Away Par-4 Scoring Average.” This is the scoring average for players on straight-away Par-4’s. I’ve found a correlation exists between this metric and play at Augusta. Two players that have struggled this year on the Straight Away Par-4’s are:

• Bradley, Keegan
• Spieth, Jordan

It’s difficult to eliminate the reigning champion, but he is 156th (out of 204 golfers) on shots from 150-175 yards, 97th on shots from 175-200 yards and 101st on shots from 200-225 yards. He’s simply not hitting the irons as well as he normally has throughout his career.

That leaves us with 20 players left that the numbers show can win the Masters:

• Casey, Paul +7,000
• Day, Jason +650
• Fowler, Rickie +1,600
• Hoffman, Charley +15,000
• Holmes, J.B. +17,500
• Johnson, Dustin +1,600
• Leishman, Marc +7,500
• Love III, Davis +55,000
• Matsuyama, Hideki +4,000
• McIlroy, Rory +800
• Mickelson, Phil +1,800
• Poulter, Ian +20,000
• Reed, Patrick +4,000
• Rose, Justin +3,300
• Schwartzel, Charl +3,500
• Scott, Adam +1,200
• Simpson, Webb +27,500
• Stenson, Henrik +2,500
• Watson, Bubba +1,100
• Willett, Danny +6,000

My Top-10 picks

• Fowler, Rickie +1,600
• Johnson, Dustin +1,600
• Leishman, Marc +7,500
• Matsuyama, Hideki +4,000
• McIlroy, Rory +800
• Mickelson, Phil +1,800
• Reed, Patrick +4,000
• Rose, Justin +3,300
• Scott, Adam +1,200
• Watson, Bubba +1,100

I’m certain readers will wonder why I left Jason Day off my top-10 picks list. Day has a great game for Augusta and has been hot as of late and is the No. 1-ranked player in the world. However, with his back issues I do not feel comfortable putting him in the top-10 list.

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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

81 Comments

81 Comments

  1. Martin

    Apr 11, 2016 at 5:33 am

    Re-read this article today to see how things turned out. NUMBERS DON’T LIE! I am a big Jordan Spieth fan and was sick to my stomach when I saw what happened. BUT, he was taken out because of his less than stellar play from 150-175 yards. The yardage on the 12th? 150 yards.
    Yes, the article was referring to straight away par 4s and the 12th was a par 3 but in my opinion, a 150-yard shot into the green in regulation is similar whether it’s a par 4 or a par 3.

    Keep them coming, Rich! Great work!

  2. CallawayLefty

    Apr 7, 2016 at 2:37 pm

    This just in – Jordan Spieth on his way to a 67 and the round 1 lead.

    Sincerely,

    Captain Obvious

    • CallawayLefty

      Apr 7, 2016 at 3:07 pm

      Oh sorry, spoke to soon. He shot 66. Yeah, he’s got no chance in this thing. Not even in the 20 most likely to win.

      • Richie Hunt

        Apr 10, 2016 at 6:59 pm

        Well, the fact is that he didn’t win. And Willett did win and was in my 20-players that can win the Masters. Funny how things work out in this silly game.

        • CallawayLefty

          Apr 10, 2016 at 9:18 pm

          I was anticipating this gloat from the moment that he dunked his tee ball at 12. Sure, he didn’t win. I’m sure you had an equation that predicted he’d make a quad on 12. My point clearly has no validity that a guy who has finished 2nd, 1st, and T2nd in three starts in Augusta isn’t in the top 20 who might have a chance to win at Augusta.
          Don’t you think you might be being a tad bit sensational? His average finish in the last 3 years is 1.67th. Is he really not in your top 20, or are you just trying to go against the grain?

        • CallawayLefty

          Apr 10, 2016 at 9:24 pm

          I tried to post once, and it didn’t show up, so we’ll see if this doubles…

          I anticipated your gloating reply as soon as he dunked his tee ball at 12. Sure, he didn’t end up winning due to an out of nowhere quad. Can you honestly not admit that it’s being a touch sensational to say that he’s not in the top 20 contenders at Augusta? He’s been the leader after 10 out of the 12 rounds he’s played there and has an average finish of 1.67 in three tries. It’s cool that you put Danny Willett in your top 20. He’s clearly a great player and was steady all day today. I just find it hard to believe that you’re not picking against Jordan solely to go against the grain. He didn’t win, but if you can’t admit that he was clearly a top 20 contender, then you’re just being disingenuous.

        • Brad

          Apr 10, 2016 at 10:56 pm

          Congrats for having Willett in your picks, but you have to admit not having Spieth in even your top 20 is ridiculous.

          • Richie Hunt

            Apr 12, 2016 at 2:31 pm

            Spieth didn’t win. Willett, who was in my 20 players did win. That was the entire point of the article.

        • CallawayLefty

          Apr 11, 2016 at 5:49 am

          I’m a little surprised that you’d come so strong with the gloating given how completely wrong you were. Or are you just so contrarian that you simply can’t admit that you were a fluke away from having the most obvious choice win, who of course was nowhere to be found in your top 20 because of how “against the grain” you are. You’re correct, spieth lost. But you have to admit that your just being a sensationalist to not have a guy who as of now has finished 2, 1, 2 in three tries at the masters not in your top 20. I never said Danny Willett wouldn’t win. I just said it was a joke that he was in your top 20 and Jordan wasn’t.

          • CallawayLefty

            Apr 11, 2016 at 7:23 am

            I have no idea why it just posted all 3 of my attempted replies now. Apparently had some computer issues. No one should pick me in their Top 20 most likely to make the computer work correctly, apparently.

            • Richie Hunt

              Apr 12, 2016 at 2:36 pm

              I don’t think I’m gloating. Or at the very least no more so than your gloating when Spieth was in the lead. I had mentioned that I didn’t pick Spieth because of his play on straight-away par-4’s and his iron play from 150-225 yards which was the exact distance range of the shot on #12.

              Let’s give a hypothetical that Spieth shoots 73 in round 1 with the quad on #12 and then shoots 66 on Sunday and finishes t-2nd. In the end, it’s all the same. He didn’t win and I didn’t have him in my 20 players. I also think he benefitted from the windy conditions in rounds 1-3.

  3. Jhay

    Apr 7, 2016 at 8:10 am

    Well Sergio didnt play well in Houston so Rich propably put Sergio on that category. But if Sergio putt a little better on the master, he will contend.

  4. Leighthebee

    Apr 6, 2016 at 7:38 am

    Haha. Ricky Fowler. Are you serious. What has he won…period.

    Please explain how in any way, this fella will even feature….

    • Joel

      Apr 6, 2016 at 11:54 am

      Well, since you asked.
      3 PGA tour wins, two last year, including the unofficial 5th major, the Players.

      The Abu Dhabi, recently, on the European tour.

      Lost in a playoff last month at the Waste Management.

      4 top 5’s in majors in 14.

      I’d say he’ll have a decent chance.

  5. Tom Lloyd

    Apr 6, 2016 at 7:21 am

    The top guys in my pick of 10 Henrik S – Zac J -Rory Mac -Dustin J -Jordan S – Ricky F – Jason D –
    Bubba W -Marc L -Adam S a lot of running is going to take place but top 3 Rory, Dustin. Jason as they spring alive when under the pressure.

  6. Windy

    Apr 6, 2016 at 3:53 am

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/features/trend/2016_masters_forecast_gusty_winds_to_challenge_golfers_during_first_three_rounds_of_play/56495557

    Moisture, then wind. This will play right into ZJ’s hands, as well as other shorter hitters with accurate wedge play.

  7. cody

    Apr 5, 2016 at 3:10 pm

    I think this a a very fun statistical article. With all golf stats used to pick a winner a hot putter can bust them. that being said, i am not sure that my eyeball test is much different from this as far as top ten is concerned.

  8. Steve Thomas

    Apr 5, 2016 at 2:54 pm

    Rich:
    As a retired math teacher, I love reading all of your statistical data. Great article. I would only have to disagree with maybe two of your picks, but what do I know.

  9. M

    Apr 5, 2016 at 12:21 pm

    Supposed to rain on Thursday. That may bring ZJ into the mix as the course will play a bit soft and slower.

  10. Kelly

    Apr 5, 2016 at 9:50 am

    I don’t understand why people are up in arms about your picks. They are YOUR picks based on YOUR stats. I love this article and look forward to it each year. I guarantee that most of the yahoos criticizing your picks learned a thing or two reading this article. Thanks for the hard work. Cheers!

  11. Paul

    Apr 5, 2016 at 8:53 am

    Love this article I thought I went into it but you are on another level, thanks. What would your top 3 be at the prices?

  12. gus becker

    Apr 5, 2016 at 8:23 am

    top 10 is a little too wide, why don’t we look at top 5.
    here is mine:
    Ricky Fowler (BMT)
    Jason Day (freak of nature at moment)
    Louis Oosthuizen (almost been there, has the temperament)
    Rory Mcilroy (chasing that no. 1 spot)
    Dustin Johnson (scary long and the putter is working)

  13. Tony Randall

    Apr 5, 2016 at 5:32 am

    Hi Rich, How did last year’s list fare? Is it still available online?

  14. gus becker

    Apr 5, 2016 at 5:03 am

    Top 10 sounds too wide, how about a top 5 rather?
    mine would be:
    Dustin Johnson (damn long and the putter is working)
    Louis Oosthuizen (almost been there, great temperament and straight shooter)
    Jason Day (freak of nature at moment)
    Rickie Fowler (BMT)
    Rory (hunting for no. 1 spot)

  15. WLBR

    Apr 4, 2016 at 4:10 pm

    On the anniversary of Jack’s 18th major victory at the ’86 Masters, and because Jack would have been statistically eliminated from any possibility of winning, I’m rooting for all the “past champions who are well past their time being competitive.”

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 4, 2016 at 4:19 pm

      It would be interesting if the data was there. Of course, Jack was still long by Tour standards in 1986 and didn’t hit the ball low and was mostly known as the great long iron player of all time. The only thing that would likely eliminate him is if he missed the cut *if* he played in the prior week event which I doubt he even played in the event. He probably would have made the list, but I likely would not have put him as a top-10 pick mainly because of his age.

  16. Martin

    Apr 4, 2016 at 4:00 pm

    I think its really interesting to see how Rich uses his stats to pick out favourites. Jordan Spieth has been struggling all season and therefore its natural not to pick him as a favourite. Sergio??? Will never win a major. He chokes EVERY time!

    • CallawayLefty

      Apr 4, 2016 at 4:42 pm

      “Struggling all season.”

      He has a win, which is more than you can say for 15 of the 20 Richie picked.

  17. Matt

    Apr 4, 2016 at 3:57 pm

    Haha Webb Simpson!

  18. gofish721

    Apr 4, 2016 at 3:20 pm

    Statistically he’s smart to leave off Jordan Spieth. It’s hard to repeat. Very hard. So if history holds normal form, then he can only look smarter against all the naysayers who questioned him. That will only give him “some” credence next year in 2017 when he does all this hocus-pocus again.

    Picking the winner out of 10 choices isn’t exactly all that noteworthy either. I’d image a lot of people who are given 10 slots to fill in names just using just personal logic have about the same chances as all the number crunching does. But to the one who goes to Vegas and plops down some cold hard cash and walks away richer, that’s impressive!!

    • CallawayLefty

      Apr 4, 2016 at 3:35 pm

      Statistics are subject to interpretation. Would you have picked against Tiger in his heyday because it was statistically unlikely for him to repeat, win back to back majors, etc.? Of course not. He was everyone’s top pick for years and years running, setting aside that it was statistically unlikely for many of the things he accomplished to occur. The same applies to Spieth, and I’m sorry, but if your list includes:
      Ian Poulter
      Marc Leishmann
      DL3
      JB Holmes
      Charley Hoffman
      Danny Willett
      Hidekyi Matsuyama
      Webb Simpson
      AND NOT Jordan Spieth…then something is wrong with your math. I’d be shocked if that entire list combined wins half as many majors as Jordan Spieth over their respective careers – and that’s with 2 already to their count on behalf of DL3 and Webb Simpson.

      • Richie Hunt

        Apr 4, 2016 at 4:13 pm

        There’s nothing wrong with my math. I’m basing it on statistical correlations to what has historically worked at Augusta. Marc Leishman is 11th from 125-175 yards, 44th from 175-225 yards and 30th from 225-250 yards. He’s also played well at ANGC in the past.

        Ian Poulter is currently 4th on shots from 175-225 yards and 46th from 225-250 yards and finished t-6th last year. DL3 is currently 64th from 150-175 yds, 58th from 175-225 yards.

        I’m as big of a fan of Spieth as you will fine. But, I can’t ignore the numbers with regards to what counts and the fact is that since Kapalua he hasn’t played all that well and the data shows why. I hope he proves me wrong, but the data doesn’t show it at this point in time.

    • Pat

      Apr 4, 2016 at 3:47 pm

      Spieth will not win period. It’s almost impossible to win the Masters 2 years in a row. Plus, Spieth’s putter was already on fire last year before the Masters. His putting has sucked for the most part this year. I’ll bet you money that Spieth won’t win.

      • M

        Apr 5, 2016 at 12:27 pm

        Yeah but even Faldo did it. Someone could always choke, or the old desire heats up and Spieth gets his game back right here this week

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 4, 2016 at 4:06 pm

      It really has little to do with repeating for me. It has to do with Spieth’s performance in key areas. Particularly straight away par-4’s and even more critically, iron shots from 150-225 yards. He’s at the worst he’s ever been from 150-225 yards in his career…*by far*. Even in 2014 he was an excellent performer from 150-225 yards. He just had issues with his driver as his driver had cracked and it took a while for him to get used to the new one.

      Last year, he was flat out incredible as a ballstriker. Drove it well and hit his irons incredibly well. If Spieth was performing at his 2014 or 2015 levels with his irons, he would have been a no-brainer to make the list.

  19. Josh

    Apr 4, 2016 at 3:16 pm

    Very interesting article! Thanks for sharing your research! Instead of bashing you for excluding Jordan, like some other folks have done, I’m just curious where he fell in your analysis? Is he just an anomaly? Thanks again!

  20. Double Mocha Man

    Apr 4, 2016 at 3:05 pm

    Rich… you had to know you were going to be skewered. And speaking of skewered, what’s on Spieth’s Masters Dinner menu?

    • Pat

      Apr 4, 2016 at 3:48 pm

      Probably burger and fries. Ugh. His personality is as boring and plain as Tiger.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 4, 2016 at 4:15 pm

      Yes. I didn’t look forward to the storm that would brew over Spieth not being on the list. Usually I get it from the Zach Johnson fans. But, I can’t ignore the data and in the end, it makes for an interesting discussion. I hope Spieth proves the data wrong.

  21. TB

    Apr 4, 2016 at 2:54 pm

    Interesting article. Day has to be the favorite going in – he’s won the last two tournaments against an outstanding international field (Palmer and the WGC) – yes he had back issues at the WGC but it didn’t seem to slow him down. ANGC is tailored made for Day and he’s done well there in the past. While his back issues may flare up again, I think you still have to put him in your top 20….top 10….top 3 for that matter. Is it Thursday yet? 🙂

  22. Joel

    Apr 4, 2016 at 2:47 pm

    Rich–I always enjoy this article. Since lots of people feel compelled to challenge your picks, how about a friendly wager with your readers? You let us pick 10 people, and the winner (lowest combined result among their 10) gets to have a head’s up competition with you in this column next year. Here’s mine;

    Jason Day (Back, Schmack. Dude’s gonna win.)
    Phil Mickelson
    Louis Oozthuizen (This is the only metric I’m not buying)
    Brooks Koepka (Three straight top 20’s in Majors? Yep)
    Ricky Fowler
    Rory (No last name needed, that’s how easy this pick is.)
    Dustin Johnson
    Henrik Stenson (I don’t think he’s gonna win either, but be in contention? Yes)
    Jordan Speith
    Brandt Snedeker

    • derek

      Apr 4, 2016 at 3:36 pm

      I’ll try this!

      Mickelson
      Zach Johnson
      Jordan Speith
      Ricky Fowler
      JB Holmes
      Freddy Couples…we can dream, right?
      Adam Scott
      Jason Day
      Rory McElroy
      Justin Thomas

      • kn

        Apr 4, 2016 at 8:21 pm

        You’re down one already. Couples is out with “back pain.”

  23. CallawayLefty

    Apr 4, 2016 at 2:32 pm

    I’m still just struggling here. Jordan Spieth, who won the Masters last year and finished in 2nd the year before, is not in your top 20. Same guy who won the US Open last year. Same guy who is coming off of one of the top 10 seasons of all time. Same guy who shot -30 at an event this season. Do you honestly believe that Ian Poulter is more likely to win the Masters than Jordan Spieth?

  24. CallawayLefty

    Apr 4, 2016 at 2:26 pm

    Hilarious statistical results, which omits Jordan Spieth, who is in the top 3 most likely to win on the “Everyone Who Thinks With Their Brain” list, and who, perhaps more interestingly, is the reigning Masters champion. Do you honestly not put Jordan Spieth in your top 20? In favor of:

    Marc Leishmann
    JB Holmes
    Hidekyi Matsuyama
    Danny Willett

    I’m not saying these guys aren’t good golfers. And I’m not saying that your statistical analysis doesn’t have merit. But you can’t ignore the simple common sense that the top 3 favorites are: Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, and Rory McIlory.

    I’m still just in shock. You left off a guy who won 2 majors and was about a 3-yard longer sand wedge away from being in a playoff to win a third. Yeah, that guy’s got no chance.

    • Lmanion

      Apr 6, 2016 at 4:10 am

      Speith wouldnt make my top 5 for this masters. Since Kapalua 4? months ago the guys has struggled big time by his standards.

      My 5 would be
      Day
      Scott
      Bubba
      Rory
      Fowler
      add Mickleson, Stenson and Oosthuizen to the list of guys I would lay down money on before Speith atm

  25. Alex

    Apr 4, 2016 at 2:23 pm

    How about Jordan? You must be kidding…

  26. David

    Apr 4, 2016 at 2:05 pm

    I don’t understand the logic of omitting the reigning Open Champion Golfer of the Year and including DL3?

  27. Mikec

    Apr 4, 2016 at 1:45 pm

    I would not be so sure about leaving Speith out of the mix

  28. birdy

    Apr 4, 2016 at 1:40 pm

    How far do you have to drive it to have a shot at winning?

    You eliminated Kuchar because he’s ‘too short’, yet ian poulter drives it all of 3 yards further on average and he’s in your top 20?

    overall interesting read.

    My pick….Matsuyama for the win but i think Stenson and Schwartzel are right there

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 4, 2016 at 2:05 pm

      I never look at actual distance because it’s misleading in terms of distance discrepancy off the tee. I look at the rankings and have adjusted their distance based on the courses they play (2 players hitting 290 yard drives on average…if player A is playing courses where the average drive is 280 yards for the field and player B is playing courses where the average drive is 295 yards for the field, player A is effectively much longer off the tee than player B).

  29. Zac Ward

    Apr 4, 2016 at 1:25 pm

    No mention on Sergio ??

  30. Mark

    Apr 4, 2016 at 1:17 pm

    Poulter? Are you serious? Struggling to stop hitting his irons sideways.

    • CallawayLefty

      Apr 4, 2016 at 2:29 pm

      I would bet my life savings that Poulter DOES NOT win the masters. No chance. Along with at least 5 or 6 others in that top 20. .

  31. Jordan

    Apr 4, 2016 at 1:16 pm

    Rich,

    Can you explain what your numbers mean after the players name in your Top-20 and Top-10 lists?

    Is a higher number a lower chance, or more a value pick (based on their rankings), etc. ? Thanks !

    • Matt

      Apr 4, 2016 at 1:41 pm

      I believe they are the betting odds. Each number represents the amount you would win on a $100 bet if the player won.

      For example Marc Leishman (+7,500) is seen by the betting markets as unlikely to win, so a bet on him gives a higher payout. If you bet $100 on him and he wins you would get $7,500 (plus your original $100).

      Rory is seen as more likely to win, so a $100 bet on him would only get get you $800 (plus your $100).

  32. Nigel

    Apr 4, 2016 at 12:59 pm

    I appreciate that an amateur has never won, but I don’t know if I would knock DeChambeau right off the bat. Maybe just wishful thinking though.

    • Pat

      Apr 4, 2016 at 3:53 pm

      LOL. That kid has is a hack and has a horrible swing. He’s not winning anything.

      • Richie Hunt

        Apr 4, 2016 at 4:17 pm

        I watched DeChambeau in person at Bay Hill and he’s far from a hack with a horrible swing. Really a great iron player and putter. His driving needs some work and I question if he can get his game running on high octane with the equipment changes and tinkering. He shot 66 at Bay Hill on Sunday (should have been a 65). I think if he can improve his driving, he’s a really great fit for ANGC in the future because his iron play is really strong.

  33. Matt

    Apr 4, 2016 at 12:57 pm

    Didn’t Zach Johnson win the Masters in 2007?

    • Walter Tworkowski

      Apr 4, 2016 at 3:02 pm

      Not only did Zach win in 2007, but he is the reigning Open Champion AND he finished tied for 9th at Augusta last year. I’m not predicting a win, but to put him in the “past his days of being compettive former champion” territory at 38 years of age is an absolute joke.

    • Tim

      Apr 5, 2016 at 8:20 am

      yeah, Zach being included in the list of “past champions well past their prime, and amatuers” is a huge miscalculation…

  34. DFS Albatross

    Apr 4, 2016 at 12:50 pm

    Super minor but IIRC Sarazen won in ’35. I do agree with the premise that most of the field is basically drawing dead to win

  35. Ryan k

    Apr 4, 2016 at 12:22 pm

    Interesting your analysis that Houston plays similarly to Augusta; I think Phil said the exact opposite in his post-round interview yesterday.

    • Ryan k

      Apr 4, 2016 at 12:25 pm

      Forgot: I do enjoy the analytics, keep em coming! Best articles on here between you and Tom Stickney.

  36. Balla Cup Champ

    Apr 4, 2016 at 11:26 am

    You eliminated Patrick Reed in your ‘Players who have never made the cut in the event’ category but then had him in both your Top 20 and Top 10. Interesting…

    • Rich Hunt

      Apr 4, 2016 at 12:05 pm

      Oops.

      That was a typo. He made the cut last year (t-22nd). I accidentally left that in from last year. Hopefully we’ll get that edited out. Thanks for spotting that.

      • Francisco Banuelos

        Apr 4, 2016 at 1:32 pm

        Has Reed improved on his apex, I think he was on the low side last year.

        • Richie Hunt

          Apr 4, 2016 at 2:09 pm

          Yes, he has. He’s a difficult player to account for because as I mentioned in my previous article, if he’s not getting into contention early, he seems to tune out and not play well for the rest of the event. Skews his data. But if he’s in contention early he’s like a completely different player. I probably would have not had him in the top-10 if he had not played well in Houston. That took out Willett and inserted Reed into the top-10.

          • Pat

            Apr 4, 2016 at 3:55 pm

            Fatrick Reed sucks and is full of himself. I hope he misses the cut.

          • Francisco Banuelos

            Apr 4, 2016 at 11:42 pm

            Interesting. Thanks for replying. I’d love to know how you weighted everything and how those calculations perform historically. Great article!

  37. Double Mocha Man

    Apr 4, 2016 at 11:18 am

    I discovered that I’m on the list! The Non-Invitee list.

  38. Double Mocha Man

    Apr 4, 2016 at 11:16 am

    Davis Love on the Top 20 list? Shouldn’t he have been on the Too Old to Qualify list?

    • Rich Hunt

      Apr 4, 2016 at 12:08 pm

      Likely so. The players at 40+ years old have not fared all that well at ANGC. However, I couldn’t ignore his play this year and ignore players like Couples and Kenny Perry who were at similar ages like Love III and almost won the Masters at those ages had similar performance profiles as Love III.

      • cherd

        Apr 4, 2016 at 1:26 pm

        Davis Love? JB Holmes? Charley Hoffman? my ribs hurt from laughing so hard. did you not watch hoffman choke away shell? what has JB done at all this year? and Davis?? this isn’t the 90’s

      • Forrest

        Apr 4, 2016 at 1:33 pm

        That’s still a bit of a stretch. DL3 is 8 for 8 on cuts made but his highest finish is T-33 in a full field event. Additionally, in 6 of those 8 tournaments, he’s only had multiple rounds in the 60’s twice.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Hong Kong betting preview: Trio of major champs primed for big week

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LIV Golf is set to begin its fourth event of the season at Hong Kong Golf Club in Hong Kong, China. This marks the first time that LIV Golf will travel to China for an event.

Hong Kong Golf Club is a par 70 measuring 6,710 yards. LIV will be using the “Fanling Course” for the event.

While speaking with Asian Tour player Travis Smyth, he gave me a rundown on what it takes to be successful at Hong Kong Golf Club.

“Hong Kong golf club, it’s pretty old school, like super short and tight. And I, I don’t think it falls into like a bomber’s hand. I think you’ll see a lot of guys hitting it to roughly the same spots on the majority of the holes. There’s a few holes where Bryson will be able to unleash a few but not many. When I played here, I hit Hybrid on Par 4’s off the tee maybe like seven times.”

Travis also said that the tight fairways and penal potential misses will keep the bombers at bay.

“It’s just that sort of course you’re hitting it like anywhere from 220 to 240 off the tee. And then from there you have a range of holes where it’s like kind of some sort of wedge or nine. It’s not very long.”

Around the green game will also be tremendously important at Hong Kong Golf Club.

“The greens are small as well and it’s usually quite hard to get up and down if you miss the greens. Someone like Cameron Smith I could see doing really well there. He played well in the international series. but just someone that’s, you know, pretty dolled in with their, their scoring clubs, he’s probably going to do well there.”

Players dialed in with their game from tee to green with control over the golf ball should fare extremely well.

“You can’t really scramble from the trees either. So, you really just have to. I’d, yeah, just whoever’s the best ball striker that week, you can’t really strap it around and fake it around there. You got to hit it straight. The tree lines are dead, there’s some hazards and stuff. It’s a short, tight quirky course, not what any of these guys are probably used to.”

Despite it being short, don’t be surprised if it gives players some real trouble.

“It should be fun viewing because there’ll be a lot of opportunities. They’ll feel like they can go low around there because it’s short but, you know, you make a few bogeys, and you get quite frustrated, and you start pushing off the tee and find some trouble and stuff. It can eat you up as well.”

Smyth finished 2nd at Hong Kong Golf Club to qualify for the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool.

Past Winners at Hong Kong Golf Club

  • 2023: Ben Campbell (-19)
  • 2022: Wade Ormsby (-17)
  • 2018: Aaron Rai (-17)
  • 2017: Wade Ormsby (-11)
  • 2016: Sam Brazel (-13)
  • 2015: Justin Rose (-19)
  • 2014: Scott Hend (-13)
  • 2013: Miguel Angel Jiminez (-12)

The top of the board once again will be a major threat this week. Jon Rahm is still in search of his first win on LIV and has been knocking at the door in each of his first three starts. Brooks Koepka hasn’t yet contended but is playing steady golf and has yet to shoot a round outside of the 60’s this season. Joaquin Niemann is the hottest player on the planet and has shown no signs of slowing down.

However, on a golf course that can neutralize the big hitters, this is an event that seems a bit more up for grabs than we’ve seen in the first three LIV events.

LIV Golf Stats YTD

 

2024 LIV Hong Kong Picks

Cameron Smith +2000 (Bet365, BetRivers)

It’s been a slow start for Cam Smith this season. In his three starts on LIV, he’s finished T8, T15, T41 and has yet to look like the Cam that is one of the best players in the world. Hong Kong Golf Club should be the perfect course fit to get the former Open Champion out of his slump.

Hong Kong Golf Club is tight off the tee, and many players won’t be able to hit driver. That will neutralize some of the best drivers of the golf ball in the field and propel players like Cam, who are almost unbeatable from fairway to green. Cam’s driver has been a weakness throughout his career, and it’s been especially pronounced this season. He’s tied for 51st in fairways hit thus far on the season. Taking driver out of his hand this week could be exactly what he needs to get on track.

Despite the poor tee balls, Smith still ranks 1st in putting and 5th in birdies made. He’s also a great scrambler, and with small greens at the course, having to get up and down is inevitable. If he can play from the fairway this week, he should have a major advantage in the other facets of the game.

Louis Oosthuizen +2000 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen should be an absolutely perfect fit for Hong Kong Golf Club. The South African has been remarkably consistent over the past few months dating back to the fall, where he won two consecutive DP World Tour events and also finished 2nd at the International Series Oman. In his three LIV starts this year, Louis has finished T8 at LIV Mayakoba, 50th at LIV Las Vegas and T2 at LIV Jeddah.

Louis is relatively short off the tee and that won’t hurt him this week. He is one of the best putters and scrambler on LIV, and his silky-smooth swing looks as dialed in as ever at the moment. He’s yet to win a LIV event, but a victory for Louis seems imminent.

Patrick Reed +5000 (FanDuel)

Patrick Reed is another play who’s yet to win a LIV event but has been a winner throughout his entire career. The former Masters champion should love Hong Kong Golf Club as it will play to his strengths on and around the greens.

Reed played on the Asian Tour this fall and finished T15 at the Hong Kong Open and T7 at the Indonesian Masters. The experience in Asia this season should be a benefit for Reed acclimating to the travel and conditions this week.

The 34-year-old should benefit from taking driver out of his hand and similar to Smith, can beat anyone in the world if the tournament become a short game competition.

*Featured Image and Stats Image courtesy of LIV Golf*

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