Tour News
Fantasy Cheat Sheet: HP Byron Nelson Championship
Tired of picking ball-strikers? Then you’re in luck because this is the week where packing a driver, a silky swing and a little bit of an attitude will get someone to the top of the leaderboard.
The HP Byron Nelson Championship, played at the Four Seasons Resort and Club Dallas, has been decided on its spacious putting surfaces the last few years, not in hitting fairways in rudimentary and sometimes mundane fashion.
What I love so much about fantasy golf is the way little bits of information gets collectively added week after week, hopefully filed away for future use. Sometimes that info comes from an oversight, such as John Senden performing well on a tight track like TPC Sawgrass. Sometimes it comes from info that’s nearly impossible to get without actually talking to a player, such as the discovery of Martin Kaymer’s natural fade being his internal opposition since he won the 2010 PGA Championship.
Now, Kaymer doesn’t care how a course sets up, he’s got to hit a fade. That obviously worked well for him in last week’s win at The Player’s Championship, but will it this week? Will he remain as confident when the putts aren’t falling or when he begins missing greens in regulation? That’s the true test of an elite golfer.
One who does seem to contain a steely demeanor necessary for longstanding success is the PGA Tour’s resident boy-next-door, Jordan Spieth.
Spieth, a 20-year-old former University of Texas star, returns to his native state determined to get the second career win that’s been eluding him lately.
The Dallas area will host this week and next week’s tournaments, so expect to see many in the field this week play again next. Remember to store this week’s tournament information in an easily accessible spot, since there’s a good chance it will come in handy next week.
For now, we’re breaking down the fantasy prospects of several golfers in this week’s HP Byron Nelson Championship edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.
RISK
History at this tournament suggests we’ll see a first-time winner, but the names that have won here in recent years are very recognizable names for their contention at or winning of major tournaments. Jason Day (2010), Keegan Bradley (’11), Jason Dufner (’12) and Sang-moon Bae (’13) all netted their first million-dollar paycheck here. We won’t know until down the road what will become of a potentially new first-time winner, but it may be we already have some solid info to suggest a bright future. Here’s a look at five golfers who are somewhat risky in the results they could yield.
Paul Casey
With four top-20s this season, Casey continues to trend upward and is a very intriguing Yahoo C pick. His last two tournaments are a T18 at the ultra-tight RBC Heritage, which means he hit fairways and small greens, and a T11 at the Zurich Classic. He had two really strong rounds in each, and if he can be consistent with the putter the other two days, he could be a sneaky pick for a top-10 finish this week. The only wariness may come from the fact he hasn’t played the Four Seasons before, but he has played next week’s Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial, and he finished solo fifth and T13 in back-to-back years in 2009-10. Keep an eye on him, if not for this week when I’m using him, but also for next.
Charl Schwartzel
There will be a lot of people sitting on Schwartzel this week, but I’m not absolutely convinced this will be a week where he can do enough to contend. He did everything right last year to finish solo third in his debut, but this year has seen him struggle with his approach shots. By the numbers, he sets up to play well since he comes in nearly identical to what he did in the first half of last year. He’s the truest definition of a risk this week because he could either hold that mold or break out of it.
Brandt Snedeker
Definitely off the radar entering this week, Snedeker has a small history at this event, but he does have a good resume for next week. He last played the Byron Nelson in his rookie year of 2007, posting two rounds in the 60s to finish T60. At The Player’s, Snedeker shot middle rounds of 69 and 67 but book-ended rounds of 75 and 76. I’m optimistic this is a week where he gets his putter going again and plays with confidence. He has the killer instinct, he just needs to get that swagger back.
Martin Kaymer
One tournament win isn’t enough to convince me that Kaymer should be a regular fantasy selection. There will be a lot of people putting him on their roster a week late, which is something I won’t be doing. Odds are extremely high he won’t back it up, which is somewhat of a freebie in Yahoo B. Use that to your advantage and instead take someone like Graham DeLaet, who is looking for win No. 1. Kaymer did finish T5 in his debut last year with four rounds in the 60s, but I’m going to gamble we see a letdown over no letup.
John Senden
The only reason Senden winds up here and not a Ruin is his recent run of fine play the last three weeks. He posted a T8 at The Masters and then put up a T29 in New Orleans and a T26 at The Player’s, where he was in contention until a final-round 77. That’s the Aussie’s upside, but Senden’s downside is missed cuts in his last three tries following a solo seventh in 2009. His recent form may be a better indicator for this week (a la Justin Rose and Rory Sabbatini in recent weeks) but with just two spots for Yahoo C, lots of better options exist.
REWARD
From a strategy standpoint, this is a week where I’m willing to be a little bit less cautious. I’m a firm believer in slow and steady wins the race, and I don’t care about compiling a big weekly point total at the expense of perhaps dropping a lead or the momentum I have. I hope you’re in a similar position of being able to manage your aggressiveness. I have my share of safe picks, but this is a week where I want to potentially separate myself from my competitors and draw temptingly close to the top of Yahoo’s overall leaderboard. The five below offer my biggest chance for reward.
Ryan Palmer
Yahoo Group C will always hold the largest amount of golfers in the field, so it could offer the most varying selections, yet it always seems there are just a handful of worthy picks. This week, Texas native Palmer is one of those obvious picks. He has two second-place finishes this year and a recent T7, which pairs nicely with making the cut the past three years and posting a playoff loss in 2011 and a T9 the next year. The Texas native is 16th in GIR this year and will drive the ball long enough and straight enough (eighth in total driving) to provide short approach shots.
Dustin Johnson
Johnson showed glimpses last week of future success, which is great since a lot of people will be overlooking him this week in Yahoo B. With only two par-5s to take advantage of this week, Johnson’s length off the tee will prove to be a lovely advantage when attacking pins on Four Seasons undulating greens. Don’t forget the ridiculous season D.J. was having (win, 18th, T11, T2, solo second, T33, T4) up until a withdrawal at the Shell Houston Open. He finished T20 in his last start here in 2011 and T7 and T4 the two years before. In a place where the wind can blow, Johnson has proven to be brilliant under those conditions.
Keegan Bradley
When Bradley opened last year’s tournament with an incredulous round of 60, it appeared he’d all but run away with the tournament. But you have to be consistent over four rounds and Bae was, not Bradley, though he still finished solo second. That he has that result along with his previous win describes an affinity for Four Seasons. He also has a T24 from 2012 and gets off to a quick start.
Marc Leishman
Coming off a T23 at TPC Sawgrass, in which Leishman closed with a 67, I’m pulling the trigger on using him at a venue where’s proven himself each time out. He doesn’t have the run of success he had last year when he entered with three top-10s and came away with a T12, but he was T3 in 2012 without any of that either. That’s a good sign that he likes the venue. Leishman also has a T12 in ’10 and a T8 in ’09. I’m going to pair him with the hot Rory Sabbatini, who won in 2009, in Yahoo A and let others use a Matt Kuchar start.
Jordan Spieth
At this point, all doubts about Spieth should be gone. All of them. There’s no question about his closing ability. You can’t question that at his age. You can, for example, do so with Lee Westwood or Kuchar. He’s already played this venue four times in his youth and is hungry to win in his hometown. Spieth tied for 68th last year with rounds of 69-68-73-75.
RUIN
Course setup is one of those hard-to-decipher characteristics when it comes to fantasy golf, because you just don’t know how a course suits a player until he says whether it does or doesn’t. All there is to go on is what he’s shown through the years. Sometimes a bad track can halt a good streak of play and sometimes the track gets someone going who had seen undesirable courses in his last few starts. Here’s a look at five who I don’t like this week.
Brian Davis
Davis is coming off a T11 at The Player’s Championship, which was easily his best result of the season. But it’s too early to say whether that’s the start of something good or if it was an aberration. He missed the cut last year, was T56 in 2012, missed the cut in ’11 and ’10, which all came after his solo second of ’09. That second-place result came after four weeks of very good play, including two preceding T5s. Since he doesn’t have that this season, I’m not buying his contention this week. I’m looking to a sorry GIR percentage and a barely average strokes gained putting. I’ll hold off for now on the Englishman.
Boo Weekley
Weekley has missed the cut in three of his past five starts and the ones he’s made (RBC Heritage, Zurich Classic) he should have performed well at but did not. He’s a ball-striker and this is not a ball-striker course. The laid back Weekley missed the cut last year and finished T63 the season before in his only two starts. Hits fairways and GIR at some of the highest rates on Tour, but he’s also near dead last in putting, and this isn’t the week to skimp on good putters.
Louis Oosthuizen
After missing the cut at The Player’s Championship, Oosthuizen has now missed the cut in three of his past four starts and still only has two rounds in the 60s the season. He withdrew during last year’s tournament and missed the cut the year before. That doesn’t exactly lend itself to confidence entering this week, nor should his woeful putting statistics. Too many choices in Yahoo C to even consider and across all games, he’s one to be avoided.
Ken Duke
This has not been Duke’s year for low-scoring rounds. He’s now missed the cut three times in his past five starts and those two made cuts resulted in T48 and T75 finishes. He missed the cut last year in the Byron Nelson, which is important to note since the last two seasons he has not been in the form he was during 2012 when he finished T7 at Four Seasons and put up five other top-10s. Give him a short course and tight tree-lined fairways and he’s a good pick, but that won’t be the case this week on this course.
Patrick Reed
I mentioned a few weeks back it was put up or shut up time for Reed after cockily touting his top-5 mindset but failing to produce in a field where a true top-fiver would have succeeded. Now Reed is rolling into Dallas on the heels of consecutive missed cuts, and he hasn’t exactly beat up this course. Last year, he finished 83rd, getting axed in a secondary cut, and he missed the cut in his debut go-round. If you don’t have humility on Tour, golf courses will eat you up, and Reed has been learning lately he’s a tasty Texas morsel.
As always, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you want to discuss your the HP Byron Nelson Championship, pick apart my selections or sort through fantasy dilemmas you may have. Good luck!
This week’s picks:
Yahoo!
Group A: M. Leishman (S), R. Sabbatini
Group B: J. Spieth (S), K. Bradley (S), G. DeLaet, D. Johnson
Group C: R. Palmer (S), P. Casey
(Last week: 185 points; Spring segment: 922; Spring rank: 1,102; Season points: 2,915; Full Season rank: 559 – 99th percentile)
PGATour.com
J. Spieth, K. Bradley, R. Palmer, M. Kuchar
(Last week: 376 points; Season: 4,949; Rank: 4,075)
Golf Channel
Group 1: J. Spieth
Group 2: G. DeLaet
Group 3: J. Overton
Group 4: B. Gates
(Last week: $400,100; Season: $9,024,850; Mulligan: $86,710; Rank: 9,515 of 39,016)
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Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans
GolfWRX is live on site this week at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans for the PGA Tour’s one-and-only two-man team event.
As usual, general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums — including some pretty spicy custom putters and headcovers — await your viewing.
Be sure to check back for more photos from the Big Easy, as we’ll continue to update this page with additional galleries throughout the week.
General Albums
- 2024 Zurich Classic – Monday #1
- 2024 Zurich Classic – Monday #2
- 2024 Zurich Classic – Tuesday #1
- 2024 Zurich Classic – Tuesday #2
WITB Albums
- Alex Fitzpatrick – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Austin Cook – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Alejandro Tosti – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Davis Riley – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- MJ Daffue – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Nate Lashley – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- James Nicholas – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Kevin Streelman – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Rasmus Hojgaard – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Tom Whitney – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- SangMoon Bae – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Daniel Berger – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Rory McIlroy – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Russ Cochrane – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Aldrich Potgieter – WITB – 2024 Zurich Classic
Pullout Albums
- MJ Daffue’s custom Cameron putter – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Cameron putters – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Swag covers ( a few custom for Nick Hardy) – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Custom Bettinardi covers for Matt and Alex Fitzpatrick – 2024 Zurich Classic
- Doug Ghim’s custom Cameron putter – 2024 Zurich Classic
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Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 RBC Heritage
GolfWRX is on site this week at Harbour Town Golf Links on Hilton Head Island for the RBC Heritage. Plenty of golfers who competed in the Masters last week will be making the quick turnaround in the Lowcountry of South Carolina as the Heritage is again one of the Tour’s Signature Events.
We have general albums for you to check out, as well as plenty of WITBs — including Justin Thomas and Justin Rose.
We’ll continue to update as more photos flow in from SC.
Check out links to all our photos, below.
General Albums
- 2024 RBC Heritage – Monday #1
- 2024 RBC Heritage – Monday #2
- 2024 RBC Heritage – Tuesday #1
- 2024 RBC Heritage – Tuesday #2
WITB Albums
- Justin Thomas – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Justin Rose – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Chandler Phillips – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Nick Dunlap – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Thomas Detry – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Austin Eckroat – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Xander Schauffele – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Jason Day – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Will Zalatoris – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Patrick Cantlay – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Ludvig Aberg – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Collin Morikawa – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Sam Burns – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Stephen Jaeger – WITB – 2024 RBC Heritage
Pullout Albums
- Wyndham Clark’s Odyssey putter – 2024 RBC Heritage
- JT’s new Cameron putter – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Justin Thomas testing new Titleist 2 wood – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Cameron putters – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Odyssey putter with triple track alignment aid – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Scotty Cameron The Blk Box putting alignment aid/training aid – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Cameron putter – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Odyssey Ai One Eleven T putters – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Christian Bezuidenhout – testing new Callaway Ti 340 mini driver – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Rory McIlroy testing the new TaylorMade BRNR Mini Driver Copper – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Xander Schauffele testing the Callaway Ti 340 mini driver & the DUW – 2024 RBC Heritage
- Byeong Hun An, two new L.A.B. Golf putter builds with “T” alignment – 2024 RBC Heritage
See what GolfWRXers are saying and join the discussion in the forums.
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Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 Valero Texas Open
GolfWRX is on site this week at the Valero Texas Open.
The event has been around since 1922, making it one of the oldest on the PGA Tour calendar. Over the years, it’s been held at a variety of courses across the Lone Star State, but it’s found its home at TPC San Antonio in recent years. Some of the biggest names in golf have taken home the title here, including Arnold Palmer, Ben Hogan, Lee Trevino, and Ben Crenshaw.
GolfWRX has its usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs and special pull-out albums. As always, we’ll continue to update the links below as more photos come in from TPC San Antonio.
General Albums
WITB Albums
- Ben Taylor – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Paul Barjon – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Joe Sullivan – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Wilson Furr – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Ben Willman – SoTex PGA Section Champ – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Jimmy Stanger – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Rickie Fowler – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Harrison Endycott – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Vince Whaley – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Kevin Chappell – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Christian Bezuidenhout – WITB (mini) – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Scott Gutschewski – WITB – 2024 Valero Texas Open
Pullout Albums
- Cameron putter – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Ben Taylor with new Titleist TRS 2 wood – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Swag cover – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Greyson Sigg’s custom Cameron putter – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Davis Riley’s custom Cameron putter – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Josh Teater’s custom Cameron putter – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Hzrdus T1100 is back – – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Mark Hubbard testing ported Titleist irons – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Tyson Alexander testing new Titleist TRS 2 wood – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Hideki Matsuyama’s custom Cameron putter – 2024 Valero Texas Open
- Cobra putters – 2024 Valero Texas Open
See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.
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Paul
May 14, 2014 at 11:57 am
It doesn’t appear that accuracy off the tee is as important as other courses on tour. Is there more importance on distance, or should you look at total driving this week? Trying to find the 2nd most important stat-line for this course with Strokes Gained Putting being my #1.
Brian Miller
May 14, 2014 at 6:36 pm
I looks at strokes gained putting, then GIR, then total driving. They still gotta hit greens to get in a putting battle, which is why I liked DeLaet for example. He can be out of position, hit a GIR and create birdie opps. And that’s where the putting comes in. Putting each week can always be a toss up because someone can change a grip, switch out a putter, see the lines better and just get hot. I wanted people who are afraid to attack the pin this week.
The Commander
May 15, 2014 at 1:28 am
Paul & Brian,
We also ran a screen based on strokes gained putting firstly then by GIR secondly, finding that driving distance was more important then hitting the fairways essentially for the third screen. This created reason to take DeLaet until I saw he was T144 for strokes gained putting, also an average scrambler. There are plenty better options who are better with the flat stick.
The course is also crucial to look at with it being shorter then regular events. There are a number of par 4’s and in recent years par 3 scoring has been important at the event, meaning we lastly screened by par 3 & 4 birdie scoring ability.
The number one screen with out giving to much turned out to be someone with a name similar to a hard liqueur…
Brian Miller
May 15, 2014 at 10:59 am
Good info! I like the riddle, so did John Daly. He’s now drinking himself into a coma, while I dug up the name of a 3-time winner on Tour this season. I’m still riding DeLaet this week in Yahoo B, which is OK given there are four options. If he does win, it will be because he bucks those putting/scrambling trends. Short game is an easier fix than full swing so I’m optimistic this week. And I kind of need a few flyers to make a run at an overall title and win a trip to a PGA tournament of my choice. This is the closest I’ve been at this point in the year. Best of luck!