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Opinion & Analysis

2017 Shell Houston Open: Odds, Picks, and Props

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The PGA Tour makes its final stop before the Masters in Houston, Texas, this week for the Shell Houston Open. Marking the 20th year as the Masters’ lead-in, the Shell Houston Open is a great opportunity for the players to tune their game heading into the year’s first major. Four of the top-10 players in the world headline the field including Texas-native Jordan Spieth, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and Adam Scott. Other notables in the field include Phil Mickelson and the defending champion Jim Herman. This week is a chance to see how some top players are rounding into form and the journeyman’s last-ditch effort to make it to Augusta. Everyone is playing to win this week but they should be weary of peaking too soon; only two previous winners have finished inside the top 15 the next week at the Masters.

Tournament Record: 266 shared by Lee Trevino and Curtis Strange in 1980, and Vijay Singh in 2002.

The Course

The par-72 Tournament Course at the Golf Club of Houston will play at 7,457 yards this week. In its 15th year as the host, the Tournament Course has turned itself into a player favorite by matching the anticipated conditions at Augusta National. It features more than a few collection areas and lightning putting surfaces. It’s safe to assume that the greens will run at no less than a 13 on the stimp. With its wide fairways and forgiving rough, the course will favor the long bombers. Players should be able to let it rip with driver off the tee without worrying about missing the fairways. Keep an eye on the par-4 12th this week; it’s an exciting risk/reward hole that’s reachable from the tee for most of the longer hitters. It sets up well to drive the green but anything pushed right will find the water.

Odds

Past Champs in the field:

  • Stuart Appleby +50000
  • Adam Scott +2500
  • Johnson Wagner +15000
  • Phil Mickelson +2000
  • Hunter Mahan +25000
  • A. Points +15000
  • Matt Jones +10000
  • B. Holmes +3300
  • Jim Herman +8000

Favorites:

  • Jordan Spieth +600
  • Jon Rahm +1000
  • Henrik Stenson +1200
  • Rickie Folwer +1400
  • Justin Rose +1800
  • Phil Mickelson +2000
  • Adam Scott +2500
  • JB Holmes +3300
  • Russel Henley +3500
  • Billy Horschel +4000

Picks

My Pick: I’m going back to an old favorite this week; Henrik Stenson at +1200. He didn’t play in last week’s WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play so he should be well rested and prepped for the Masters. Stenson fell one shot short of a playoff here last year — Jim Herman chipped in on 16 in the final round to break the tie — so the course clearly fits his game. He had a little trouble on the par-3s last year, playing them at 2-over for the week, but he dominated the rest of the course. He shot 9-under on the par-5s and 7-under on par-4s. The course allows him to hit driver off the tee so he’ll be in position to put his ball striking on display.

Value Pick: My value pick this week is Daniel Berger (+4000). He has a strong track record in this event; in his two appearances, Berger hasn’t finished outside the top 25 (T5 in 2016 and T25 in 2015), and only has one round over par. Berger is above average in Shots Gained off the Tee at 67th but what is dragging him down is his accuracy. He’s only been hitting about 59 percent of his fairways this year but the light rough at the Golf Club of Houston won’t penalize him as much as he’s used to.

Long Shot: I’m taking a shot on Jhonny Vegas this week at +6600. He hasn’t missed a cut at the Shell Houston Open in his last 4 attempts and finished T19 last year. He’s played solid golf this year, making 10 of 11 cuts, and finished in the top 5 at the Honda Classic. He occasionally has issues with accuracy off the tee and doesn’t have a one way miss. If he can manage that at all this week, I think he’ll at least be in contention on the weekend.

Props

Will there be a playoff? Yes (+300) No (-450): Yes! Absolutely have to take these odds. The Shell Houston Open has had 23 playoffs in 71 tournaments. That’s nearly one out of every three years. These are close to the same odds you’re getting at every other tournament except this tournament has the second most playoffs in history, second only to the U.S. Open. This has to be played.

Jordan Spieth Top 5 Finish (+135): This is as close to a lock as you’re going to get this week. I don’t think he’s going to take the W because I have a feeling his mind will be focused on Augusta all week, but this course absolutely suits his game. He won’t have to worry about finding the fairway, he ranks 117 in Shots Gained off the Tee and is actually losing shots to the field, and the quick greens should allow him to sink some 15-20 footers.

Hole-in-One: Yes (EVEN) No (-130): I’m going with “No” this week. I don’t like the odds nearly enough to take yes and the par-3s here always play tough. The only hole that is listed under 200 yards is No. 7 and it still played above par last year.

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Twitter @NickRitaccoGolf

3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. Gamblin' Billy

    Mar 29, 2017 at 2:47 pm

    Gotta say I like both Chris Stroud and D.A. Points this week as dark horses. One is playing a home game, the other is a past champ, and both are coming in fresh from a good run in Puerto Rico.

    • Nick Ritacco

      Mar 29, 2017 at 3:52 pm

      Solid choices for sure; I like that Johnny Vegas is a Texas guy too – played at UT.

  2. Nick Ritacco

    Mar 29, 2017 at 9:37 am

    Who do you think is going to win this week?

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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