Opinion & Analysis

Dustin Johnson: The Burning Questions Heading into 2015

Published

9 years ago

Jan 5, 2015

It’s been nearly five months since this happened. And then this. And then this. Oh, we can’t forget about that. Or this (unverified rumor, to be clear). And of course this.

Yep, a strange few months for Dustin Johnson and golf.

That initial period of hectic rumor-mongering is over though, and the American’s stay on his leave of absence (or whatever you believe it to be) is nearing its conclusion.

How do we unravel this power-hitting puzzle? Here is a breakdown of the most tantalizing questions about Johnson, maybe golf’s greatest enigma, heading into 2015.

When will Johnson return to competition?

For those of you who haven’t followed the 30-year-old’s whereabouts following his shocking July announcement, Tim Rosaforte has provided us the answer…or at least a well-educated guess.

The veteran golf scribe spoke with members of Johnson’s team (manager, coach and trainer) and was able to obtain that the American is planning to return to golf tentatively at the Farmers Insurance Open, which starts Feb. 5.

Tentative is the operative word. Schedules can change, and these reports also state Johnson iterating that he will wait until his fiance Paulina Gretzky gives birth to the couples’ first child before he competes again. We do not know the due date, so his return date could easily be pushed back.

When he returns, how will Johnson address the questions about his sabbatical?

Johnson has never been an expansive guy in interviews, and there’s nothing wrong with that, especially in today’s hypersensitive media age. Those are just the facts.

I assume he will start out with a statement of his own, and when it comes to media questions, I expect vague answers. Of course, he will likely get direct questions about whether he was suspended, prior drug use, etc.

Before Johnson’s leave of absence, his agent had once answered questions about whether his client had ever been suspended by the PGA Tour with a swift “no.” That response hasn’t changed, nor will it to queries on any of the topics in question.

If you expect real, meaty answers here, disappointment will ensue.

Will the players welcome him back?

Gary Van Sickle already covered this one, and I agree with his assessment. There have never been any reports of players disliking Johnson, and the PGA Tour pros tend not to be too judgmental about a colleague’s problems. I’m doubtful Johnson will receive many cold shoulders in his return.

Does Johnson appear ready to return to competition?

Well, he’s keeping his whereabouts a secret, and is by proxy seen by few people. Because of that, our only source material here is the members of team Johnson that I noted above. Clearly this is a biased group whose encouraging words must be taken with several grains of salt.

That being said, even adjusting for this healthy skepticism, the reports on Johnson’s offseason are positive.

Apparently he put up his sticks for eight weeks and then furiously got to work. According to his people, Johnson is committing to his physique like never before, completing a heavy amount of biking along with strenuous two-a-day workouts. And his practice sessions have been quite focused and pristine as well.

His course-record-setting round of 61 at Sherwood Country Club, if true, is a good touch, too. Butch Harmon, who once called out Johnson as a guy who was outworked by everybody else in the top 10, says he’s cautiously optimistic about Johnson.

Trust what you want to trust, but it doesn’t appear Johnson is lollygagging in his absence.

If Johnson slips up significantly in 2015, will sponsors treat him like a landmine as they did for Tiger in 2010?

If you remember, the 2010 season wasn’t a fond one for Woods. Three sponsors — Gatorade, Accenture and AT&T — kicked him to the curb outright within months of the scandal’s beginning. Three more would drop or mutually split with Woods by the end of 2011.

But the circumstances around Woods were just too singular for Johnson to be hit with the same exodus.

That being said, I’d keep an eye on Johnson and TaylorMade.

The two have been together since the American’s pro debut, but company CEO Ben Sharpe admitted last month that TaylorMade and Johnson have had exactly zero contact since the news of Johnson’s “leave of absence” broke.

Sharpe’s quotes don’t convey any annoyance, but being mum with a long-term main sponsor that stood by you in turbulent times isn’t exactly a recipe for a satisfied employer.

TaylorMade’s contract with Johnson ends at the close of 2015. With the deadline looming so near, wouldn’t a particularly poor on-course season or a clear lack of personal growth from Johnson at least tempt the equipment giant into axing its long-bombing bad boy?

I’m not saying a split here is probable or even that likely. It’s just something to think about considering the context of Johnson’s absence, his lack of communication and the specter of his expiring contract.

What should we expect from Johnson on-course in 2015?

Year-to-year, however, the 30-year-old is remarkably similar in performance. In his six full PGA Tour seasons following his rookie year, Johnson has averaged 1.1 wins, 6.7 top-10s and 10.2 top-25s per year, with a 82 percent made cut rate.

And basically every single year, his numbers cling close to those averages. His wins have fluctuated between 1 and 2 per season, his top-10s between 5 and 9, his top-25s between 8 and 12 and his made cut rate between 73 and 89 percent.

Those are remarkably small ranges.

My point? I know the story of a catastrophic downfall in performance or a rise to superstardom in the wake of scandal are sexy angles, but Johnson’s on-course results will probably fall somewhere in that mitigated range.

Yes, the scouting reports on Johnson’s offseason progress are excellent. But again, these comments come courtesy of a PR filter, and how often do you hear healthy athletes say, “Yeah, I only feel so-so about this upcoming season”?

On the other side, a long break from golf is least likely to hinder a guy like Johnson, a total feel player who already has one extended professional vacation on record (that 11-week hiatus in 2012).

Sorry to be boring here, but I expect a quintessential Dustin Johnson season in 2015.

Is This a Professional Crossroads Year for Dustin Johnson?

It’s tempting to label this season as one where the back half of Johnson’s career is firmly at stake, with any failures sabotaging a strong ending. His lack of major championships looms large, but remember: HE’S ONLY 30 YEARS OLD.

Although we can’t always accurately predict the effects of aging on any one golfer, the average pro tends to have a near decade of prime years from age 30 on. According to the norm, we are really at the front end of Johnson’s prime.

You can see why I’m skeptical about this “crossroads” thing then. A bad season for a 30-year-old is just that: A bad season. It’s difficult to envision a downward spiral when Johnson’s physical talent is near the peak and likely not set to decline for a couple of presidential election cycles.

Short of Johnson suddenly gaining 10 years in age in the next month, crossroads is an inaccurate way to describe his professional status in 2015.

Will Johnson finally win a major championship this season?

I actually like his odds here. As I already mentioned, I don’t think Johnson will really be hindered at all by his extended absence. His chances at a major won’t be dinged then by a drop in performance.

And the set of courses at the final three majors of 2015 suits him extremely well.

For the U.S. Open, Chambers Bay is expected to be a track with wide landing areas on the drive, and at 7,585 yards, it is a long one too. It seems that big hitters and great approach players, both of which describe Johnson, are especially encouraged to excel there. And those same profiles mesh with players most attractive to St. Andrews for the British Open and Whistling Straits for the PGA (if you don’t trust me, the 21st century major champion winners at these venues are Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh, Louis Oosthuizen and Martin Kaymer, all of whom fit the longer hitter-approach player profile).

The caveat for some is that a major championship is the next step in Johnson’s evolution as a golfer, and he isn’t ready for that leap. But we’re misplacing the “next step” concept. Not to diminish the difficulty of winning a major, but all that entails is getting hot at a big event with a great field. The 30-year-old already did that twice in the FedEx Cup Playoffs and another time in winning a World Golf Championships last year. He’s actually done it at majors too, with the victory crown barely eluding him. Those crunch time major championship moments are likely to turn in his favor at least once at some point.

Johnson’s real next step is consistently putting together multiple-win, double digit top-10 seasons. As lovely as it is to put up his current averages year-after-year, he seems to be stuck on those numbers.

All in all then, I’m optimistic that Johnson finally bags that elusive major in 2015. Such a victory doesn’t imply that his season will be above his norm or that the American has finally transformed into the golfer we believe his talent merits.

If he wins one of the Big Four, he remains the same old Dustin. And the old Dustin should triumph at a major in 2015.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

4 days ago

Apr 18, 2024

Terry Koehler

Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

Published

4 days ago

Apr 18, 2024

GolfWRX Staff

In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

6 days ago

Apr 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.

Past Winners at Harbour Town

2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
2019: CT Pan (-12)
2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
2016: Branden Grace (-9)
2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
Tom Hoge (+1.27)
Corey Conners (+1.16)
Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

Brice Garnett (88.8%)
Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
Brian Harman (+1.89)
Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
Taylor Moore (+1.02)
Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
Corey Conners (+69.0%)
Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.

Course History over past 24 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
Cam Davis (+2.05)
J.T. Poston (+1.69)
Justin Rose (+1.68)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

Shane Lowry
Russell Henley
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Corey Conners
Wyndham Clark
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Matt Fitzpatrick
Cameron Young
Ludvig Aberg

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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Dustin Johnson: The Burning Questions Heading into 2015

Opinion & Analysis

Dustin Johnson: The Burning Questions Heading into 2015

19 Comments

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Past Winners at Harbour Town

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Strokes Gained: Approach

Good Drive %

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

5. Greens in Regulation %

6. Course History

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Dave Portnoy places monstrous outright bet for the 2024 Masters

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Things got heated at the Houston Open between Tony Finau and Alejandro Tosti. Here’s why

Tiger Woods arrives at 2024 Masters equipped with a putter that may surprise you

Report: Tiger Woods has ‘eliminated sex’ in preparation for the 2024 Masters

Two star names reportedly blanked Jon Rahm all week at the Masters

2-time major champ announces shock retirement from the sport at age of 33

Report: LIV Golf identifies latest star name they hope to sign to breakaway tour

Neal Shipley presser ends in awkward fashion after reporter claims Tiger handed him note on 8th fairway

Edoardo Molinari reveals the latest PGA Tour golfer to turn down ‘good offer’ from LIV Golf

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Dustin Johnson: The Burning Questions Heading into 2015

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