Opinion & Analysis

Dustin Johnson: The Burning Questions Heading into 2015

Published

9 years ago

Jan 5, 2015

It’s been nearly five months since this happened. And then this. And then this. Oh, we can’t forget about that. Or this (unverified rumor, to be clear). And of course this.

Yep, a strange few months for Dustin Johnson and golf.

That initial period of hectic rumor-mongering is over though, and the American’s stay on his leave of absence (or whatever you believe it to be) is nearing its conclusion.

How do we unravel this power-hitting puzzle? Here is a breakdown of the most tantalizing questions about Johnson, maybe golf’s greatest enigma, heading into 2015.

When will Johnson return to competition?

For those of you who haven’t followed the 30-year-old’s whereabouts following his shocking July announcement, Tim Rosaforte has provided us the answer…or at least a well-educated guess.

The veteran golf scribe spoke with members of Johnson’s team (manager, coach and trainer) and was able to obtain that the American is planning to return to golf tentatively at the Farmers Insurance Open, which starts Feb. 5.

Tentative is the operative word. Schedules can change, and these reports also state Johnson iterating that he will wait until his fiance Paulina Gretzky gives birth to the couples’ first child before he competes again. We do not know the due date, so his return date could easily be pushed back.

When he returns, how will Johnson address the questions about his sabbatical?

Johnson has never been an expansive guy in interviews, and there’s nothing wrong with that, especially in today’s hypersensitive media age. Those are just the facts.

I assume he will start out with a statement of his own, and when it comes to media questions, I expect vague answers. Of course, he will likely get direct questions about whether he was suspended, prior drug use, etc.

Before Johnson’s leave of absence, his agent had once answered questions about whether his client had ever been suspended by the PGA Tour with a swift “no.” That response hasn’t changed, nor will it to queries on any of the topics in question.

If you expect real, meaty answers here, disappointment will ensue.

Will the players welcome him back?

Gary Van Sickle already covered this one, and I agree with his assessment. There have never been any reports of players disliking Johnson, and the PGA Tour pros tend not to be too judgmental about a colleague’s problems. I’m doubtful Johnson will receive many cold shoulders in his return.

Does Johnson appear ready to return to competition?

Well, he’s keeping his whereabouts a secret, and is by proxy seen by few people. Because of that, our only source material here is the members of team Johnson that I noted above. Clearly this is a biased group whose encouraging words must be taken with several grains of salt.

That being said, even adjusting for this healthy skepticism, the reports on Johnson’s offseason are positive.

Apparently he put up his sticks for eight weeks and then furiously got to work. According to his people, Johnson is committing to his physique like never before, completing a heavy amount of biking along with strenuous two-a-day workouts. And his practice sessions have been quite focused and pristine as well.

His course-record-setting round of 61 at Sherwood Country Club, if true, is a good touch, too. Butch Harmon, who once called out Johnson as a guy who was outworked by everybody else in the top 10, says he’s cautiously optimistic about Johnson.

Trust what you want to trust, but it doesn’t appear Johnson is lollygagging in his absence.

If Johnson slips up significantly in 2015, will sponsors treat him like a landmine as they did for Tiger in 2010?

If you remember, the 2010 season wasn’t a fond one for Woods. Three sponsors — Gatorade, Accenture and AT&T — kicked him to the curb outright within months of the scandal’s beginning. Three more would drop or mutually split with Woods by the end of 2011.

But the circumstances around Woods were just too singular for Johnson to be hit with the same exodus.

That being said, I’d keep an eye on Johnson and TaylorMade.

The two have been together since the American’s pro debut, but company CEO Ben Sharpe admitted last month that TaylorMade and Johnson have had exactly zero contact since the news of Johnson’s “leave of absence” broke.

Sharpe’s quotes don’t convey any annoyance, but being mum with a long-term main sponsor that stood by you in turbulent times isn’t exactly a recipe for a satisfied employer.

TaylorMade’s contract with Johnson ends at the close of 2015. With the deadline looming so near, wouldn’t a particularly poor on-course season or a clear lack of personal growth from Johnson at least tempt the equipment giant into axing its long-bombing bad boy?

I’m not saying a split here is probable or even that likely. It’s just something to think about considering the context of Johnson’s absence, his lack of communication and the specter of his expiring contract.

What should we expect from Johnson on-course in 2015?

Year-to-year, however, the 30-year-old is remarkably similar in performance. In his six full PGA Tour seasons following his rookie year, Johnson has averaged 1.1 wins, 6.7 top-10s and 10.2 top-25s per year, with a 82 percent made cut rate.

And basically every single year, his numbers cling close to those averages. His wins have fluctuated between 1 and 2 per season, his top-10s between 5 and 9, his top-25s between 8 and 12 and his made cut rate between 73 and 89 percent.

Those are remarkably small ranges.

My point? I know the story of a catastrophic downfall in performance or a rise to superstardom in the wake of scandal are sexy angles, but Johnson’s on-course results will probably fall somewhere in that mitigated range.

Yes, the scouting reports on Johnson’s offseason progress are excellent. But again, these comments come courtesy of a PR filter, and how often do you hear healthy athletes say, “Yeah, I only feel so-so about this upcoming season”?

On the other side, a long break from golf is least likely to hinder a guy like Johnson, a total feel player who already has one extended professional vacation on record (that 11-week hiatus in 2012).

Sorry to be boring here, but I expect a quintessential Dustin Johnson season in 2015.

Is This a Professional Crossroads Year for Dustin Johnson?

It’s tempting to label this season as one where the back half of Johnson’s career is firmly at stake, with any failures sabotaging a strong ending. His lack of major championships looms large, but remember: HE’S ONLY 30 YEARS OLD.

Although we can’t always accurately predict the effects of aging on any one golfer, the average pro tends to have a near decade of prime years from age 30 on. According to the norm, we are really at the front end of Johnson’s prime.

You can see why I’m skeptical about this “crossroads” thing then. A bad season for a 30-year-old is just that: A bad season. It’s difficult to envision a downward spiral when Johnson’s physical talent is near the peak and likely not set to decline for a couple of presidential election cycles.

Short of Johnson suddenly gaining 10 years in age in the next month, crossroads is an inaccurate way to describe his professional status in 2015.

Will Johnson finally win a major championship this season?

I actually like his odds here. As I already mentioned, I don’t think Johnson will really be hindered at all by his extended absence. His chances at a major won’t be dinged then by a drop in performance.

And the set of courses at the final three majors of 2015 suits him extremely well.

For the U.S. Open, Chambers Bay is expected to be a track with wide landing areas on the drive, and at 7,585 yards, it is a long one too. It seems that big hitters and great approach players, both of which describe Johnson, are especially encouraged to excel there. And those same profiles mesh with players most attractive to St. Andrews for the British Open and Whistling Straits for the PGA (if you don’t trust me, the 21st century major champion winners at these venues are Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh, Louis Oosthuizen and Martin Kaymer, all of whom fit the longer hitter-approach player profile).

The caveat for some is that a major championship is the next step in Johnson’s evolution as a golfer, and he isn’t ready for that leap. But we’re misplacing the “next step” concept. Not to diminish the difficulty of winning a major, but all that entails is getting hot at a big event with a great field. The 30-year-old already did that twice in the FedEx Cup Playoffs and another time in winning a World Golf Championships last year. He’s actually done it at majors too, with the victory crown barely eluding him. Those crunch time major championship moments are likely to turn in his favor at least once at some point.

Johnson’s real next step is consistently putting together multiple-win, double digit top-10 seasons. As lovely as it is to put up his current averages year-after-year, he seems to be stuck on those numbers.

All in all then, I’m optimistic that Johnson finally bags that elusive major in 2015. Such a victory doesn’t imply that his season will be above his norm or that the American has finally transformed into the golfer we believe his talent merits.

If he wins one of the Big Four, he remains the same old Dustin. And the old Dustin should triumph at a major in 2015.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

Published

2 days ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

Published

2 days ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide.

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory.

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second.

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

Richard Bland
Jon Rahm
Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

Abraham Ancer
Graeme McDowell
Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

Bryson DeChambeau
Joaquin Niemann
Dean Burmester

Putting

Cameron Smith
Louis Oosthuizen
Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

6 days ago

Apr 18, 2024

Terry Koehler

Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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