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Fantasy Cheat Sheet: Deutsche Bank Championship

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It’s easy to just sit back and watch a weekly tournament and not be aware of the many things churning below the surface that really make this time of year interesting.

The FedEx Cup playoffs head to Boston this week and in the process are leaving 25 players behind from the ruin’s of The Barclays, where Hunter Mahan grabbed 2,500 FedEx Cup points with his win and vaulted to the top of the standings.

First, we’ve got a Friday start and a Labor Day finish to this week’s Deutsche Bank Championship at TPC Boston, where Henrik Stenson is the defending champion. Among the storylines, 30 players will not advance to the top-70 event at the BMW Championship at Cherry Hills in Colorado.

Second, while the FedEx Cup playoffs is going on, those who didn’t break into the top 125 are competing in the concurrently running Web.com Tour Finals to keep their PGA Tour cards. As a side note, Carlos Ortiz won the Web.com Tour’s final event this past weekend and in so doing won his third tournament of the year, becoming the first to gain PGA Tour exemption for next year via a three-win escalator. Not bad.

Third, there are still Ryder Cup slots yet to be determined and the last week to impress U.S. captain Tom Watson. So if you’re looking for storylines, the Deutsche Bank will have them in abundance.

Let’s break down some of the fantasy angles now in this week’s edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

462145639CH00159_The_Barcla

TPC Boston only plays to a length of 7,214 yards. That’s not long, but it’s not short either. A par-71 course, after renovations in 2006 it became a venue where scoring was the name of the game, which happens to keep the patrons interested. Normally, hitting greens in regulation gives you an advantage for birdies, but it has been scrambling and birdie average have proven to be just as important statistics to watch. Additionally, you want a hot golfer at this point of the year. Here’s a few that could surprise or underwhelm this week.

Hunter Mahan

We’re told that Mahan’s victory at The Barclays isn’t a fluke, that he’s been building to that result for a while. His short game excelled in New Jersey and no win on Tour is a fluke. Following a T15 at Firestone and a T7 at the PGA Championship, he still wasn’t on many people’s radar. But in order to trust him the rest of the way through the playoffs, it’d be nice to see him play strong right out of the gate. Mahan is 8 for 11 in his career at the Deutsche Bank with all of his missed cuts occurring early in his career, but he still has just one top-10, a T8 three years ago, plus a T13 last year.

Zach Johnson

I’ve got one start left from ZJ and I’m considering burning it here, but I probably should hold off for another week. The problem is when Johnson gets hot, he gets really hot. His year slowed down considerably after a hot start and really hasn’t been heard from much aside from his standard low tournament at the John Deere Classic. But a T22 and two rounds in the 60s was a good sign and one that may suggest putting him on a Yahoo B bench and seeing what happens. It’s doubtful many others will have him, which could create a nice edge if he does start to go low. Has yet to crack the top 10 in Boston, but also is a risk to miss the cut.

Brandt Snedeker

Brandt-Snedeker

Do we judge Snedeker by the missed cut at The Barclays or the four previous tournaments where he was trending upward in a big way? I think it was more of the latter, being undone by a bad second round in New Jersey. The good news is TPC Boston is a comfortable course for him since he finished in the top six in three consecutive years from 2010-12, including a T3 in 2011. Snedeker seems to play his best this time of year and he has one more chance to impress Tom Watson and make the Ryder Cup team.

Jordan Spieth

Spieth’s Ryder Cup position is locked up, but it’d be nice if he were playing at the level he’s capable of. He looked better at The Barclays, finishing T22 and posting a final-round 67 that hopefully carries through to this week. Spieth this week to me is like Jason Day last week, a huge upside hidden by rust or bad results. He’ll be in my lineup for sure, and a T4 in his debut last year (67-66-72-62) gives credence to the idea a birdie course will liven up the demands of the end of the PGA Tour season.

Patrick Reed

You can make a case for Reed slipping into one of the reward slots below, but I have a hard time justifying him over some of the bigger names. Still, the kid is a winner and has the aggressive mentality that serves itself well on a course like this. He finished T70 in his debut last year, shooting 68-72-73-69, and that’s a little discouraging, but he could also be getting hot right now. Following a T24 at the Wyndham, only weeks removed from a T4 at Firestone, Reed posted a T9 at The Barclays. It could have been more consistent, having shot 71-66-73-65, but he could be a very nice Yahoo A pick alongside one of the big and consistent names like Adam Scott or Matt Kuchar.

REWARD

RoryMcilroy

When wagering on players vs. a birdie course, understand how difficult it is to score on a championship course layout. One of the reason’s the top pros score better than others down the rankings is they know just how to execute the best shot for that moment that either maximizes the potential for scoring or mitigates the chance of danger. To use the Web.com Tour as an example, and I don’t remember the player, but he tried to hit a 3-wood into a tight green only 215 yards away. A hybrid would have had the right distance, an iron could have picked the ball cleanly and left him safely on, but instead he tried to get too cute and dumped it in the woods.

Bogey or worse. There are players in the field who do just that and can’t quite execute every shot. The players below can.

Rory McIlroy

Even when McIlroy is off, like he was last week, he still can and will finish in the top 25. If you burned a start, no big deal. It was the smart move to use him. The same can be said for this week where he was the 2012 champion. There’s nothing scary about TPC Boston and McIlroy’s run of 1-1-1-22 is a great lead up. Tough courses can take a lot out of you with the mental focus required. Expect this week to be the jump-start McIlroy needs to get right to the top of the FedEx Cup standings.

Jason Day

This is exciting. I pointed out last week that Day has just the kind of huge risky upside you’d like to get hot. Well, he did. And with no health concerns, Day vaults into a reward pick this week. He should score well in Boston, where he has two top-three finishes and hasn’t missed the cut in six tries.

Matt Kuchar

MattKuchar

The question mark last week for Kuchar was a sore back. But after a T5 at The Barclays, his doubt has been removed too. He’s backnailing top-10s, securing his 11th of the season to lead the PGA Tour. Kuchar was five strokes off the pace last year, finishing T4 after rounds of 66-66-69-66.

Rickie Fowler

No reason to hold back on Fowler again since he’s blistering hot since turning a T13 in Memphis in June. He’s now reeled off consecutive finishes of T2, T2, T8, T3 and T9. His Barclays result was undone just a tad by a 73 in round two, but overall 14 of his last 16 rounds have been in the 60s. It’s a birdie course and Fowler should have four more rounds in the 60s this week.

Jim Furyk

He just keeps rolling along even when it seems discouragement in not winning should be kicking his butt. That speaks a lot to Furyk’s maturity and how an even approach can help on the golf course. Furyk has now amassed nine top-10s this season after a T8 at The Barclays. Arguably, he’s building for a win. He owns three solo second results this year and three of his last five tournaments have resulted in t5 or better. Oh and he hasn’t missed a cut in nine tries in Boston, accruing three top-10s.

RUIN

TimClark

At this stage of the game, it becomes clearer to see who is struggling and who is not. It’s easier to tell who belongs and who does not. And for fantasy owners, there’s very little need to get cute and start picking bottom feeders to fill out a lineup. Hopefully you’ve managed starts and if you are using tier A, you’re using tier B and staying far away from the rest of the alphabet, which would be the golfers below.

Tim Clark

After an opening-round round 76 and a withdrawal at The Barclays, Clark’s winning of the RBC Canadian Open is standing out as an aberration. He struggled his next six rounds of golf, performed decently at the Wyndham and then New Jersey happened. Now he heads to a TPC Boston course where he’s missed the cut the last two years, which is an ominous accomplishment given the tight field.

Ryan Palmer

Also in the missed-the-last-two-cuts department is Palmer, which is an automatic qualifier for ruin status. While his T5 at the PGA Championship was a boon for his earnings this year, the T74 at the Barclays— in which he missed a secondary cut— is making the PGA result look like an outlier he only happens into once every few months.

Cameron Tringale

CameronTringale

It’s rare to put a kid coming off a career-best tournament in an avoid situation, but Tringale provides little in the way of enduring confidence even after his T2 at The Barclays. Granted, he is a bit of a scorer, which is nice on this course, so he could post a couple good rounds. But this is still the same course as last year, when he shot 73-67-71-70 and finished T67. It’s the same course as 2012, when he missed the cut with rounds of 73-79. It’s the same as ’11, when he MC’d (68-76). Tringale’s issue is consistency and one tournament doesn’t prove anything.

K.J. Choi

If not for two T2’s this season, I’m not sure Choi even gets in the playoffs. Since his second at the Travelers, he’s posted a T64, MC, MC, T66, MC and a T71 last week. Ouch. On top of that, his Boston results have been T41, MC, MC, T45 the last four years. Double ouch.

Ben Crane

BenCrane

If you’re playing bad golf, I feel bad for you, son. I got T99 problems but made cuts ain’t one. That could be a new Golf Boys song line, but unlike Bubba Watson, Rickie Fowler and Hunter Mahan, it’s Crane that can’t seem to keep the foot on the gas. Since his win in Memphis, he’s posted 74th, T37, T34, WD, WD, and a missed cut last week that placed him at T99. I’m not sure what the issues are for him at this point, but at 78th in the FedEx Cup standings, he’s looking like a chop for the top 70 cut line.

Thanks for reading. If you’d like to further discuss strategies or selections, you can comment below or find me on Twitter @bricmiller.

Best of luck!

This week’s picks:

Yahoo!

Group A: M. Kuchar (S), B. Snedeker
Group B: J. Spieth (S), J. Day (S), K. Bradley, H. Mahan
Group C: B. Todd (S), C. Hoffman
(Last week: 150 points; Summer segment: 1,483; Summer rank: 27,361; Season points: 5,249; Full Season rank: 3,995 – 95th percentile)

PGATour.com

M. Kuchar, R. McIlroy, A. Scott, J. Day
(Last week: 462 points; Season: 9,305; Rank: 4,146)

Golf Channel

Group 1: R. McIlroy
Group 2: J. Spieth
Group 3: B. Todd
Group 4: J. Overton
(Last week: $737,733; Season: $15,773,655; Mulligan: $26,980; Rank: 12,544 of 41,465)

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Brian Miller is a sports writer of over eight years and his work has appeared in the Chicago Sun-Times, Miami Herald and Tallahassee Democrat. He's a fantasy golf nut and his golf novel will be published in spring 2014. You may find him on Twitter @bricmiller.

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Craig Miller

    Aug 28, 2014 at 8:46 am

    Going with Kuchar and Scott in A

    We’re the same in B

    And Walker and Na Iin C

    95th percentile on the year.

  2. DB

    Aug 27, 2014 at 6:23 pm

    Yahoo! C Group… Brendon Todd and C. Hoffman? Why?

    • Brian Miller

      Aug 27, 2014 at 8:32 pm

      Todd’s been consistent all year long and he played two good opening rounds (65-66) at The Barclays. Yeah he faded but this won’t be a tough course for him. He’s killed it on other shoutout courses (Humana, Greenbrier). Hoffman is a scorer that went 73-69-69-69 at The Barclays. That’s nice consistency prior to this week. Schwartzel and Na are also good choices. Don’t like Walker or Palmer.

  3. Pingback: Fantasy Cheat Sheet: Deutsche Bank Championship | Spacetimeandi.com

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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