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Fantasy Cheat Sheet: Deutsche Bank Championship

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It’s easy to just sit back and watch a weekly tournament and not be aware of the many things churning below the surface that really make this time of year interesting.

The FedEx Cup playoffs head to Boston this week and in the process are leaving 25 players behind from the ruin’s of The Barclays, where Hunter Mahan grabbed 2,500 FedEx Cup points with his win and vaulted to the top of the standings.

First, we’ve got a Friday start and a Labor Day finish to this week’s Deutsche Bank Championship at TPC Boston, where Henrik Stenson is the defending champion. Among the storylines, 30 players will not advance to the top-70 event at the BMW Championship at Cherry Hills in Colorado.

Second, while the FedEx Cup playoffs is going on, those who didn’t break into the top 125 are competing in the concurrently running Web.com Tour Finals to keep their PGA Tour cards. As a side note, Carlos Ortiz won the Web.com Tour’s final event this past weekend and in so doing won his third tournament of the year, becoming the first to gain PGA Tour exemption for next year via a three-win escalator. Not bad.

Third, there are still Ryder Cup slots yet to be determined and the last week to impress U.S. captain Tom Watson. So if you’re looking for storylines, the Deutsche Bank will have them in abundance.

Let’s break down some of the fantasy angles now in this week’s edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

462145639CH00159_The_Barcla

TPC Boston only plays to a length of 7,214 yards. That’s not long, but it’s not short either. A par-71 course, after renovations in 2006 it became a venue where scoring was the name of the game, which happens to keep the patrons interested. Normally, hitting greens in regulation gives you an advantage for birdies, but it has been scrambling and birdie average have proven to be just as important statistics to watch. Additionally, you want a hot golfer at this point of the year. Here’s a few that could surprise or underwhelm this week.

Hunter Mahan

We’re told that Mahan’s victory at The Barclays isn’t a fluke, that he’s been building to that result for a while. His short game excelled in New Jersey and no win on Tour is a fluke. Following a T15 at Firestone and a T7 at the PGA Championship, he still wasn’t on many people’s radar. But in order to trust him the rest of the way through the playoffs, it’d be nice to see him play strong right out of the gate. Mahan is 8 for 11 in his career at the Deutsche Bank with all of his missed cuts occurring early in his career, but he still has just one top-10, a T8 three years ago, plus a T13 last year.

Zach Johnson

I’ve got one start left from ZJ and I’m considering burning it here, but I probably should hold off for another week. The problem is when Johnson gets hot, he gets really hot. His year slowed down considerably after a hot start and really hasn’t been heard from much aside from his standard low tournament at the John Deere Classic. But a T22 and two rounds in the 60s was a good sign and one that may suggest putting him on a Yahoo B bench and seeing what happens. It’s doubtful many others will have him, which could create a nice edge if he does start to go low. Has yet to crack the top 10 in Boston, but also is a risk to miss the cut.

Brandt Snedeker

Brandt-Snedeker

Do we judge Snedeker by the missed cut at The Barclays or the four previous tournaments where he was trending upward in a big way? I think it was more of the latter, being undone by a bad second round in New Jersey. The good news is TPC Boston is a comfortable course for him since he finished in the top six in three consecutive years from 2010-12, including a T3 in 2011. Snedeker seems to play his best this time of year and he has one more chance to impress Tom Watson and make the Ryder Cup team.

Jordan Spieth

Spieth’s Ryder Cup position is locked up, but it’d be nice if he were playing at the level he’s capable of. He looked better at The Barclays, finishing T22 and posting a final-round 67 that hopefully carries through to this week. Spieth this week to me is like Jason Day last week, a huge upside hidden by rust or bad results. He’ll be in my lineup for sure, and a T4 in his debut last year (67-66-72-62) gives credence to the idea a birdie course will liven up the demands of the end of the PGA Tour season.

Patrick Reed

You can make a case for Reed slipping into one of the reward slots below, but I have a hard time justifying him over some of the bigger names. Still, the kid is a winner and has the aggressive mentality that serves itself well on a course like this. He finished T70 in his debut last year, shooting 68-72-73-69, and that’s a little discouraging, but he could also be getting hot right now. Following a T24 at the Wyndham, only weeks removed from a T4 at Firestone, Reed posted a T9 at The Barclays. It could have been more consistent, having shot 71-66-73-65, but he could be a very nice Yahoo A pick alongside one of the big and consistent names like Adam Scott or Matt Kuchar.

REWARD

RoryMcilroy

When wagering on players vs. a birdie course, understand how difficult it is to score on a championship course layout. One of the reason’s the top pros score better than others down the rankings is they know just how to execute the best shot for that moment that either maximizes the potential for scoring or mitigates the chance of danger. To use the Web.com Tour as an example, and I don’t remember the player, but he tried to hit a 3-wood into a tight green only 215 yards away. A hybrid would have had the right distance, an iron could have picked the ball cleanly and left him safely on, but instead he tried to get too cute and dumped it in the woods.

Bogey or worse. There are players in the field who do just that and can’t quite execute every shot. The players below can.

Rory McIlroy

Even when McIlroy is off, like he was last week, he still can and will finish in the top 25. If you burned a start, no big deal. It was the smart move to use him. The same can be said for this week where he was the 2012 champion. There’s nothing scary about TPC Boston and McIlroy’s run of 1-1-1-22 is a great lead up. Tough courses can take a lot out of you with the mental focus required. Expect this week to be the jump-start McIlroy needs to get right to the top of the FedEx Cup standings.

Jason Day

This is exciting. I pointed out last week that Day has just the kind of huge risky upside you’d like to get hot. Well, he did. And with no health concerns, Day vaults into a reward pick this week. He should score well in Boston, where he has two top-three finishes and hasn’t missed the cut in six tries.

Matt Kuchar

MattKuchar

The question mark last week for Kuchar was a sore back. But after a T5 at The Barclays, his doubt has been removed too. He’s backnailing top-10s, securing his 11th of the season to lead the PGA Tour. Kuchar was five strokes off the pace last year, finishing T4 after rounds of 66-66-69-66.

Rickie Fowler

No reason to hold back on Fowler again since he’s blistering hot since turning a T13 in Memphis in June. He’s now reeled off consecutive finishes of T2, T2, T8, T3 and T9. His Barclays result was undone just a tad by a 73 in round two, but overall 14 of his last 16 rounds have been in the 60s. It’s a birdie course and Fowler should have four more rounds in the 60s this week.

Jim Furyk

He just keeps rolling along even when it seems discouragement in not winning should be kicking his butt. That speaks a lot to Furyk’s maturity and how an even approach can help on the golf course. Furyk has now amassed nine top-10s this season after a T8 at The Barclays. Arguably, he’s building for a win. He owns three solo second results this year and three of his last five tournaments have resulted in t5 or better. Oh and he hasn’t missed a cut in nine tries in Boston, accruing three top-10s.

RUIN

TimClark

At this stage of the game, it becomes clearer to see who is struggling and who is not. It’s easier to tell who belongs and who does not. And for fantasy owners, there’s very little need to get cute and start picking bottom feeders to fill out a lineup. Hopefully you’ve managed starts and if you are using tier A, you’re using tier B and staying far away from the rest of the alphabet, which would be the golfers below.

Tim Clark

After an opening-round round 76 and a withdrawal at The Barclays, Clark’s winning of the RBC Canadian Open is standing out as an aberration. He struggled his next six rounds of golf, performed decently at the Wyndham and then New Jersey happened. Now he heads to a TPC Boston course where he’s missed the cut the last two years, which is an ominous accomplishment given the tight field.

Ryan Palmer

Also in the missed-the-last-two-cuts department is Palmer, which is an automatic qualifier for ruin status. While his T5 at the PGA Championship was a boon for his earnings this year, the T74 at the Barclays— in which he missed a secondary cut— is making the PGA result look like an outlier he only happens into once every few months.

Cameron Tringale

CameronTringale

It’s rare to put a kid coming off a career-best tournament in an avoid situation, but Tringale provides little in the way of enduring confidence even after his T2 at The Barclays. Granted, he is a bit of a scorer, which is nice on this course, so he could post a couple good rounds. But this is still the same course as last year, when he shot 73-67-71-70 and finished T67. It’s the same course as 2012, when he missed the cut with rounds of 73-79. It’s the same as ’11, when he MC’d (68-76). Tringale’s issue is consistency and one tournament doesn’t prove anything.

K.J. Choi

If not for two T2’s this season, I’m not sure Choi even gets in the playoffs. Since his second at the Travelers, he’s posted a T64, MC, MC, T66, MC and a T71 last week. Ouch. On top of that, his Boston results have been T41, MC, MC, T45 the last four years. Double ouch.

Ben Crane

BenCrane

If you’re playing bad golf, I feel bad for you, son. I got T99 problems but made cuts ain’t one. That could be a new Golf Boys song line, but unlike Bubba Watson, Rickie Fowler and Hunter Mahan, it’s Crane that can’t seem to keep the foot on the gas. Since his win in Memphis, he’s posted 74th, T37, T34, WD, WD, and a missed cut last week that placed him at T99. I’m not sure what the issues are for him at this point, but at 78th in the FedEx Cup standings, he’s looking like a chop for the top 70 cut line.

Thanks for reading. If you’d like to further discuss strategies or selections, you can comment below or find me on Twitter @bricmiller.

Best of luck!

This week’s picks:

Yahoo!

Group A: M. Kuchar (S), B. Snedeker
Group B: J. Spieth (S), J. Day (S), K. Bradley, H. Mahan
Group C: B. Todd (S), C. Hoffman
(Last week: 150 points; Summer segment: 1,483; Summer rank: 27,361; Season points: 5,249; Full Season rank: 3,995 – 95th percentile)

PGATour.com

M. Kuchar, R. McIlroy, A. Scott, J. Day
(Last week: 462 points; Season: 9,305; Rank: 4,146)

Golf Channel

Group 1: R. McIlroy
Group 2: J. Spieth
Group 3: B. Todd
Group 4: J. Overton
(Last week: $737,733; Season: $15,773,655; Mulligan: $26,980; Rank: 12,544 of 41,465)

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Brian Miller is a sports writer of over eight years and his work has appeared in the Chicago Sun-Times, Miami Herald and Tallahassee Democrat. He's a fantasy golf nut and his golf novel will be published in spring 2014. You may find him on Twitter @bricmiller.

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Craig Miller

    Aug 28, 2014 at 8:46 am

    Going with Kuchar and Scott in A

    We’re the same in B

    And Walker and Na Iin C

    95th percentile on the year.

  2. DB

    Aug 27, 2014 at 6:23 pm

    Yahoo! C Group… Brendon Todd and C. Hoffman? Why?

    • Brian Miller

      Aug 27, 2014 at 8:32 pm

      Todd’s been consistent all year long and he played two good opening rounds (65-66) at The Barclays. Yeah he faded but this won’t be a tough course for him. He’s killed it on other shoutout courses (Humana, Greenbrier). Hoffman is a scorer that went 73-69-69-69 at The Barclays. That’s nice consistency prior to this week. Schwartzel and Na are also good choices. Don’t like Walker or Palmer.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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