Opinion & Analysis

Long irons or hybrids? The importance of bag setup

Published

11 years ago

Jun 17, 2013

Merion Golf Club’s East Course, the site of the 2013 U.S. Open, saw players use a variety of different equipment setups in order to navigate the course’s combination of very long and very short holes.

Bag setup was one of the parts of the game I was very interested in when I started doing my statistical research. And from my experience, even Tour players have a variety of opinions on what type of bag setup to use come tournament time.

In my debut column for GolfWRX, I discussed that if you broke the game down into more finite details, you will see that shots from what I call “The Danger Zone” (approach shots from 175 to 225 yards) have the strongest mathematical correlation to success on Tour.

There are many ways to “skin a cat” when it comes to lowering a golfer’s score, but those who struggle from the Danger Zone are putting themselves behind the 8-ball and will require better play from the other facets of the game to make up for that deficiency.

With that said, I wanted to look at what the best Danger Zone players on Tour were carrying for a bag setup. To do this, I looked at the number of irons each player carried in 2010, 2011 and 2012:

Note: I left out the sixth-ranked player from the Danger Zone in 2010, Jay Williamson, due to being unable to find any record of his bag setup in 2010.

Here is the final tally of bag setups for the players listed:

As we can see, the overwhelming majority of Tour players carry a bag setup of a 3 iron through pitching wedge. The rest mostly carry a bag setup of 4 iron through pitching wedge. And only one player in the list used a bag setup of 5 iron through pitching wedge — Graeme McDowell.

What this means is that Tour players are carrying fewer wedges and/or fewer hybrids than the average amateur. I feel most of that has to do with their skill level, which alters the purpose of long irons, hybrids and gap wedges with relationship to their game.

First, the thing that sticks out with the top Danger Zone players is that they typically make sure to have their yardage gaps tight from their 3-wood to the long irons. This means that there is usually no wide gaps between long clubs, like a player having a 3 wood and then the next club being a 3 iron. They typically have another club in-between the two like a hybrid or a 5-wood. And they usually end up not using a gap wedge in order to make sure they have the proper gaps for their long approach shots.

The reason why this works is that Tour players are skilled enough that if they get into a situation where they are in-between wedges and could use a gap wedge, they can simply take some distance off with their pitching wedge, or hit their sand wedge a little harder. They’re skilled and creative enough to still hit very good shots when they do this. But, when they get into a situation where they are in-between clubs from long distance, it is much more difficult for them to execute a shot by hitting a “soft” 3-wood or a “hard” 3 iron.

Another interesting aspect is the average club head speed of the players with the certain aspect as noted in this chart:

As we can see, the more irons the top Danger Zone players carry in their bags, the higher their club head speed is.

From my experience of discussing bag setups with Tour players, they feel that the irons are more precise and accurate than hybrids. However, if they want to increase their odds of consistently hitting a shot the furthest, they prefer hybrids over irons.

So, if they get on a long par-3 where they may have some difficulty clearing the water, they are apt to pull out the hybrid instead of a long iron in order to increase their odds of doing so. But if there is no trouble that they have to carry, they are likely want to use a long iron so they can hit a shot closer to the hole. And that explains why golfers who uses 2 iron-through-pitching wedge setups have super high clubhead speeds. They simply have little difficulty carrying any trouble in front of them because they hit it so far.

Therefore, I feel that hybrids should be considered more of an “advancement” club than anything for all golfers. For the Tour player, they need the hybrid if they are trying to advance the ball from a bad lie or if they are trying to ensure that they advance a ball over trouble like water, a bunker or other types of hazards.

For the average amateur, they are not likely to be able to hit a long approach close to the hole and can even struggle to find the green from long distance. Therefore, they are better off carrying more hybrids just so they can be more consistent in their ability to advance the ball toward the hole. If they have a 180-yard shot, they will be better off using a club that they will consistently hit in excess of 170 yards even if it causes them more issues with directional control.

In the end, whether the golfer is 2013 U.S Open winner Justin Rose or 20-handicap Joe Smith, their game can benefit from a proper bag setup that matches their ability.

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Rich Hunt

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

35 Comments

Scott

Jul 4, 2013 at 10:19 am

So this would require me to put some forethought into my round?

Reply Report comment
sam

Jul 1, 2013 at 12:16 am

Interesting stuff, here’s my 2cents worth…
PGA Tour players are just like other golfers, they follow trends. In the 90?s everyone on Tour jumped on the 52, 56, 60 bandwagon with Tom Kite, when he took distance control to a new level. Then along came Tiger with 48, 54, 58 and they all dumped a wedge. Lately, club lofts have changed the make up of sets, making 3 iron redundant in many cases (as shown above). The reason the DZ looks more important to scoring than the BZ is that relative to the other parts of their game the average PGA Tour Pro is poor in the BZ. The reason for this is simple: not enough tools to do the job. Modern PW clubs have become much stronger, instead of keeping the loft/distance gaps even, everyone followed Tiger and minimized the short end of their set. No doubt, more options and more full shot yardages will result in closer to the hole with wedges, it would be interesting to look at the correlation between number of scoring clubs and proximity to the hole, pretty sure you will find that guys with 3-4 wedges get it closer more often than the two club guys. Now that’s a blind spot!

Reply Report comment
Sppon

Jun 22, 2013 at 9:35 pm

so the conclusion is that the faster you swing, the more long irons you can use? Seems pretty obvious. I bet the bottom 50 in the danger zone stats have the same bag make up as the top 50 once you correct for club head speed. And I would also be shocked if having a higher clubhead speed doesn’t have a pretty good correlation with better performance from 200 yards. Luke Donald hits a 4 iron 205 yards. Dustin Johnson is hitting his 6 iron 202 yards.

The other thing to look at is the very poor repeatability in those lists. There is only 1 or 2 names that show up more than once. Is that a sign that this is pretty much a variance stat that has little to do with player ability?

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Johnny

Jun 21, 2013 at 12:30 am

If belly putters are going to be banned, so should hybrids…..ill never touch one of those things…love my 3 iron

Reply Report comment
Tom

Jun 20, 2013 at 5:46 am

Hybrids are good for getting out of the rough sometimes and certain fairway shots, and especially if you don’t like or hit long irons good. But when you need to get out of trouble or carve in or draw that shot around something, or keep it extra low in the wind. I keep the 3-pw, with a 5wd too, but am now trying those Titleist utility irons, in 2,3, & 4. Hit them and felt they give the best of both worlds. 5wd may just go

Reply Report comment
Ron Hampel

Jun 19, 2013 at 2:19 pm

Don’t forget that many golfers (including pros, I think) value the ease of using a long iron (or current long iron replacements – AKA driving irons) for their superior ability to cut through tall turf vs hybrids. The smaller head simply makes the club glide through more easily.

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Socorr4

Jun 19, 2013 at 2:01 pm

Thanks for this extremely interesting article. It’s very useful to a guy like me who comes from a scientific background and likes indepth analyses. BTW, I carry 3-pw, an 18 hybrid, a 54 or 56 (different bounce for different sand) and 64 wedges, driver, 3 or 4 fairway and putter.

Reply Report comment
Mat

Jun 19, 2013 at 2:28 am

It’s also worth stating that while these tour cats can whip a 3i, there are a few things you might want to mention:

* Playing from the tips might make you have more 3i shots. Play the whites, and you’ll rarely pull a 3 under any circumstance.

* Certain brands of irons are setting 4i lofts to 20 degrees-ier. Most pros consider a 3i to be 21*.

* Hybrids are an advancement tool, but at some point it needs to be accurate. If you’re hitting a hybrid only 175, you are probably going to have to go for the green.

* PRO players also like the longer irons because they land more softly. Your accuracy is often dictated in relation to the downward angle of the ball’s flight.

* Finally, many long irons pros are playing aren’t butter knives. There is a large level of forgiveness built into some of the 3 irons in play today. Angel Cabrerra comes to mind – blades, except for his i20 3i. The bag is going to Driver > Fairway > Hybrid > Drive Iron > 4-P & 2 wedges, or a lower hybrid and 3 wedges. Either way, the 3 iron is morphing just like the 5 wood did.

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jb

Jun 18, 2013 at 7:31 pm

I couldn’t agree more, if you take the time to hit them all and then take the best feeling and have it fit to you, you’ll love hybrids. I hit Cobra ones and am in love with them. Able to hit from tough lies and still control and shape shots if need be. Couldn’t ask for an easier club to hit long and consistent.

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Wayne Hall

Jun 18, 2013 at 6:08 pm

It is all about the shaft! Find the right shaft and the correct torque to match you golf swing and you will have a winner. I have tried most and even had some custom heads. The best performers have been Fubuki or Aerotech shafts in the Adams heads Super S (XTD) and a KZG Tour series. Make sure the shafts are heavy enough to help with flight and balance. Most shafts from the big brands are too light for the faster swing speeds.

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Brian

Jun 18, 2013 at 12:23 am

Tour Players setup their bag almost exclusively for Par-5s and Par-3s. Those 6-8 holes on a course are what determines which clubs they play that week.

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Cris

Jun 17, 2013 at 7:43 pm

This is a fantastic article. Always look forward to what you have to say, Richie. Thanks for sharing with us.

Reply Report comment
KCCO

Jun 17, 2013 at 4:49 pm

Is the 2 iron possibly a 712u? I could def see players carrying that……

Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  Jun 17, 2013 at 4:52 pm
  
  I didn’t count any Utility Iron or Driving Irons as part of the ‘irons.’ I don’t believe any of the players listed with the 2-PW where using a utility iron or driving iron as their 2-iron. They were using an actual 2-iron.
  
  Reply Report comment
- Nick
  
  Jun 17, 2013 at 9:28 pm
  
  I could be wrong, but I do believe Titleist confirmed Adam Scott is using the 712u 2-iron
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Bailey
    
    Jun 17, 2013 at 11:20 pm
    
    You are correct, he is currently playing a 712u 2-iron. But in the study above when he was shown as a “2-iron” player, he was actually playing a real 2 iron. No driving iron, the real blade
    
    Reply Report comment
Gregory

Jun 17, 2013 at 4:06 pm

The more GI a hybrid, the more likely it’s a hook machine. The “players” type hybrids with no to little offset are much different. Even players hybrids are so much easier to hit than gi long irons. Check out some of the Adams ones for better players used and cheap…like the idea pro, pro black, a12 pro.

Reply Report comment
- Knallerich
  
  Jun 18, 2013 at 2:56 am
  
  in the last couple of years i used taylor made and ping hybrids (R11/i20)
  Hooked them very badly so i tried adams and havent hit a hook ever since i bought a super xtd with the stock fubuki x-stiff shaft. if i try to hook it its a slight draw and i can even hit a fade with a hybrid now, so yeah, adams seems to be the solution for most better golfers.
  
  Reply Report comment
bob poll

Jun 17, 2013 at 2:01 pm

who were the 3 with 2 irons?

Reply Report comment
- Richie Hunt
  
  Jun 17, 2013 at 3:02 pm
  
  It’s in the table in the article. They were Charlie Beljan (2012), Adam Scott (2010) and Scott Stallings (2011).
  
  Reply Report comment
Dalton

Jun 17, 2013 at 1:26 pm

Great article. Makes me want to be a sports statistician.

Reply Report comment
- larry fox
  
  Jun 17, 2013 at 1:46 pm
  
  Great article!!
  
  Reply Report comment
Eric

Jun 17, 2013 at 12:10 pm

I’ve always found Hybrids to be hooking machines. It could be that I haven’t yet found one that fits me. Instead I carry 4-PW irons and have replace my 3i with a persimon 5-wood.

Reply Report comment
- Lawrence
  
  Jun 17, 2013 at 1:15 pm
  
  I agree – had a Taylormade 2011 3 rescue and called it a “prostitute” until lending it to a serial fader.
  
  Reply Report comment
- G
  
  Jun 17, 2013 at 1:24 pm
  
  I find that people who say that hybrids are hooking machines are also stuck with certain brands they prefer so they don’t search around enough and look at other companies to find the right club, being the fan-boy they are with their preferred brands.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Eric
    
    Jun 17, 2013 at 2:31 pm
    
    If you saw my bag you’d quickly realize that I’m not stuck with a certain brand or vintage. That said, it’s very possible that I just haven’t yet found the right one for me. It would be nice to get that high launch and soft landing 200-210 yards out.
    
    Reply Report comment
    - G
      
      Jun 18, 2013 at 2:56 am
      
      You could work on your swing, can’t you? lmao
      
      Reply Report comment
      - Michael
        
        Jun 22, 2013 at 10:48 am
        
        And you could work on your personality G. Eric, I’ve had the same issues with hybrids. Love hate relationship. I found a happy medium going to RBZ tour long irons. with their wide soles they give the benefit of hybrids with easy launch and movement through the rough, however you get the accuracy of an iron.
        
        Reply Report comment
    - MP
      
      Aug 16, 2013 at 4:27 pm
      
      One suggestion could be to get fitted for the correct shafts or spend some money on lessons to cure the hook. so many people buy the latest driver every year and still cant hit it correctly. get some lessons and get fitted.
      
      Reply Report comment
  - david
    
    Dec 13, 2013 at 4:24 am
    
    That’s a great point… unless you are getting paid on Sunday evenings for your 4 day performance it would behoove the average player to experiment with different brands of clubs and also with different offset/ shaft flex combos as well to see what ball flight, movability and distance each club produces for them.
    
    I recently changed shafts in my 3 tour hybrid from an 80 gram S flex to a 65 gram R flex and shortened it’s length. This change gave me the yardage I was looking and the flight that I needed… hope this helps someone who is struggling.
    
    Reply Report comment
- NeillR
  
  Jun 17, 2013 at 8:45 pm
  
  I’m more than happy with my hybrids – currently have an RBZ (1st gen 3H) and a Titleist 910 (4H). Don’t have any problems with hooking and find that they are so versatile that i’m even looking at getting more of them!
  
  Reply Report comment
- Zack
  
  Jun 17, 2013 at 9:39 pm
  
  Yup I have the same problem. Why not try a driving iron?
  
  Reply Report comment
- pablo
  
  Jun 20, 2013 at 2:15 am
  
  I used to hook my 3h and 4h clubs badly until I decided to start fading them instead of drawing them. That solved everything and now they fly higher and land softer.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - paul
    
    Jan 8, 2014 at 6:30 pm
    
    +1 to that comment. go for a fade with hybrids if they are gi. I play i20 and as long as i dont aim to play a draw, they are amazing.
    
    Reply Report comment
- Scott
  
  Feb 18, 2015 at 12:07 pm
  
  FYI. The older Adams PNT Tour version hybrids are not hooking machines. They have the yellow strip on the bottom and only show the loft. Awesome hybrids. You can work the ball and hit them from any condition. I have 3 (18 degree, 22 degree and 24 degree) and interchange based on course conditions. You can pick them up on ebay.
  
  Reply Report comment

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla

Published

17 hours ago

May 13, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.

The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old.

Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades.

Valhalla Golf Club is a par-71 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event.

The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions.

Past Winners of the PGA Championship

2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Valhalla

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Shane Lowry (+1.25)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
Jordan Smith (+1.05)
Tom Hoge (+.96)
Corey Conners (+.94)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:

Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
Keith Mitchell (+.90)
Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
Ludvig Aberg (+.82)

Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs

Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:

Jon Rahm (+2.56)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
Shane Lowry (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses

Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
Xander Schauffele (+1.60)

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships

One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event.

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens

Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
Justin Rose (+0.93)
J.T. Poston (0.87)

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways

Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds:

Justin Thomas (+1.53)
Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
Rory McIlroy (+1.23)

2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%).

Brooks Koepka
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Shane Lowry
Alex Noren
Will Zalatoris
Cameron Young
Keith Mitchell
Hideki Matsuyama
Billy Horschel
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Adam Schenk
Chris Kirk
Sahith Theegala
Min Woo Lee
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas

2024 PGA Championship Picks

Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)

At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.

Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.

Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.

In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024.

Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)

Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.

At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.

Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.

Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.

Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)

There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.

Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.

Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.

Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.

Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)

I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.

Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.

Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.

Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 2

Published

5 days ago

May 9, 2024

Terry Koehler

In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.

At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.

It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.

And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.

I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.

But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.

If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.

To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.

There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.

Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.

The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.

First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.

And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”

So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

1 week ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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