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Do Fairways Hit Equal Low Scores?

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If you’ve played this game long enough, you know how important it is to hit the fairway. It allows any of us to control the ball’s spin and flight far easier than out of the rough or in a bunker.

With that being the case, one would think that the men winning on the PGA Tour week-in and week-out would be the leaders of fairways hit. It is easy to come to this conclusion but a look at the stats is surprising. Tiger Woods, the greatest golfer of our time, is no straight hitter off the tee and neither is Phil Mickelson, the next winningest player on Tour. So how is it that they win so frequently? Because driving accuracy is not as important as you might think.

Driving the golf ball straight is important, but there are far more important stats like Strokes Gained-Putting and scoring. Driving the ball straight is far less important than putting and getting up and down from 100 yards and in.

Of course, golfers can’t hit it all over the planet; they have to keep it in bounds and out of hazards. So if you’re hitting 70-yard slices and hooks that should be a addressed, but if your stats show you miss fairways but keep it within the tree line and you’re still not scoring, hitting it straighter might not be the pace to focus.

The top-10 players leading in driving accuracy on the PGA Tour are probably not who you think they are. There is definitely something to the adage “drive for show, putt for dough.” Below are two graphs, the first is showing the top-five leaders in driving accuracy, the second is showing the top FedEx Cup points leaders.

Jeff Maggert is fifth in driving accuracy on Tour at 71.46 percent. He also has a very respectable GIR percentage (Greens in Regulation) at 68.20 percent, which ranks him 3oth on Tour. With numbers like that, it would be easy to conclude he would be having a standout year and be ranked high in the FedExCup Standings.But he’s not even close. Maggert is ranked 156th in the FedExCup standings.

Top 5 Leaders in Driving Accuracy

FedEx Points Leaders

Once again, it is all what you do 100 yards and in on a hole. When looking at the first graph, only one man on it is having a stellar year, Graeme McDowell. Why is that? Well, it is easy to see when you move across the graph and look at his scrambling stat. He is a grinder with a scrambling stat of 74.49 percent, which means he makes par 74.49 percent of the time when he misses a green. Jeff Maggert on the other hand only makes par 59.38 percent of the time under those same circumstances.

And the five men leading in driving accuracy are not leading in the strokes gained putting category. All of them, with the exception of McDowell and Kohles, are giving shots back to the field putting.

The first shocking thing noticeable is that Woods and Mickelson are no better than 56 percent in driving accuracy. Tiger, on the other hand, is lapping the field in the strokes gained putting, not so much for Mickelson, but he is very respectable at .345 in that category. Seve Ballesteros was never ever a great driver of the ball but that man could get up and down from the moon.

Snedeker is the most consistent member in this group, because he does everything well. He is not leading in any of the categories, but he is near the top in most. He is a straight hitter with both his woods and irons and he can scramble. It is not hard to see why he is having a standout year this year. Kevin Streelman, who won his first tournament this year at the Tampa Bay Championship, is havign a Snedeker-type season — he’s doing everything well, too.

So what is separating Tiger Woods, who has won three times in 2013, from everyone else? Putting, putting, putting. I’ll take some literary freedom here and draw what I think is the most important thing about Tiger: He is never out of a hole. He may hit it into a bunker or the trees, but he fights it out knowing there is a great chance if he can get on the green with a stroke to spare he will make that putt.

These stats show that we as amateur golfers probably spend too much time working on the long game. A golfer’s time would be far better spent practicing the game from 100 yards and in. With half of the stats on a par 4 allotted to putting, that should tell us something. Also, if a golfer can get his wedge play to be accurate from inside 100, it will wear out the people you play — just ask Jeff Maggert.

With all of this in mind, we should head out to the putting and pitching green and commit to getting good in these areas. I realize spending 30 minutes or more putting doesn’t have the appeal of bombing out long, straight drives on the range. But keep in mind how much lower your scores will get if you only need two shots from inside 100 yards. That should be motivation enough!

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P. Matthew Moorhead has spent last 18 years working for General Motors. When not at work, he spends his time trying to improve his game with Eric Johnson of Oakmont CC and trying out all the new golf equipment, coaching youth soccer and spending time with his family. Through the early part of this decade he chased a dream of racing sportbikes around the Midwest to some minor success and spectacular crashes. He worked as an assistant pro for a few years and spent a summer in the 90s working as a putter rep for a now-defunct putter company and signed LPGA players to use the brand.

9 Comments

9 Comments

  1. Adrian

    Dec 7, 2013 at 10:48 am

    While I agree that the short game is very important in my opinion the long game is much more important until you get to a certain level, which is probably below a 5 handicap, when those strokes saved really come into play. The most important stat to an amateur golfer in my opinion is greens in regulation. Greens in regulation have almost a direct correlation with an amateurs score. Increasing GIR will have a much bigger impact on the score. I have always hit around 60% of my fairways but it wasn’t until this past month when I got my GIR’s up from 24 to 56 percent that my scoring really improved. My putts per round are rarely below 31 but I still shoot in the mid 70’s since I am hitting 9-10 greens and getting up and down 30 to 40 % of the time when I miss the green. Not saying short game isn’t important, but long game is what really costs most golfers.

  2. John Scott

    May 1, 2013 at 5:09 pm

    Interesting article but can you correct the spelling on Seve Ballesteros please, you have his surname wrong.
    Cheers.

    • Matt M

      May 2, 2013 at 4:44 am

      Sorry bout the Seve typo no disrepect meant.

  3. Troy Vayanos

    Apr 27, 2013 at 9:53 pm

    Great post Matt,

    It just goes to show how important the short game is and the ability to get up and down from everywhere.

    My local driving range is filled with guys practising just their driver and yet the putting green is empty … go figure!

    Cheers

  4. dbamford

    Apr 26, 2013 at 1:09 pm

    One point I forgot to mention — there is a BIG difference between launching a 300-yard bomb from the tee into the rough, which happens to be blanketed by a crowd of spectators and PGA ball-spotters.

    If average golfers don’t hit fairways, the ball might be lost. If your drives are 300+ yards, that becomes “frequently” lost. The lack of spotters and galleries reduces the payoff for the “bomb it into the rough” strategy in the real-world.

    My biggest pet peeve is landing a shot in the center of the fairway and having the ball simply vanish. Maybe it hit a sprinkler head and ricocheted, maybe it fell into a hole, who knows… everyone has had this happen to them at one time or another.

    • Nick

      Aug 6, 2013 at 10:16 am

      Could not agree more. Many times I see errant drives by the big hitters that I know for a fact would be lost and gone forever for the average player. With LB being so overly penalized (should be a lateral IMO) that’s a huge impact on your average players score that the pros deal with far less frequently.

  5. dbamford

    Apr 26, 2013 at 12:52 pm

    I tracked every club I hit over the last 5 or 6 rounds I played last season. It’s not something I had ever done before but it sure was eye-opening. A full 50% of the shots I hit were from my 9-iron through my LW. Another 25% were between by 6I and my 9I. I could almost throw away every club between my driver and my 5I and not be too bad off.

    I guess the point I’m making is that In agreement with this article and many others that the lofted irons and putters are the most critical clubs to master. If you’re a good bunker/rough/junk player (e.g. a master of you wedges) you won’t care so much where you land. Bomb it close, plop it on the green for your GIR, and putt. If you’re not a long hitter you had better hit the green from 200+ out, and that is perhaps impossible on highly protected and fast greens. Ironically, if greens were approachable from long distances, or weren’t too slick to hold an approach shot, it might negate the long hitters’ advantage of coming into the green with a lob wedge all the time.

    I really agree that it is GIR + Putting that counts. If you are getting your GIR (however you slice it) you will have scoring chances.

  6. JChoj

    Apr 26, 2013 at 11:54 am

    I really wish they would make it harder for them to hit out of the rough. Pros just don’t care where the ball is. Make it more rewarding for the player to hit the fairway.

  7. Mike

    Apr 26, 2013 at 10:51 am

    I get what you are saying here. But I’d love to see a statistical analysis of how much better Tiger scores when he is hitting fairways consistently, and same with Phil. Tiger and Phil’s short games are usually consistently good to great, but when they are hitting fairways it seems that they have many more birdie and eagle opportunities.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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