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The 23 golfers who can win the Masters

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As the world’s most popular golf tournament plays this week, I wanted to give a rundown of the Masters from a statistical perspective.

First, I want to discuss what I call the “Critical Holes” in a golf tournament. These are holes that based on tournament history are where the top finishers have gained the most strokes versus the field. For Augusta, they are Nos. 7, 12, 15, 17 and 18. So as you are tracking the tournament, I would key in on these particular holes as they have the largest influence on a golfer’s success at Augusta.

The neat thing about the Masters is it is a limited field, and we can immediately eliminate about one fifth of the field as not having a realistic chance of winning the tournament. I would put these as most of the past champions and the amateurs.

  • Ben Crenshaw
  • Bernhard Langer
  • Craig Stadler
  • Fred Couples
  • Ian Woosnam
  • Jose Maria Olazabal
  • Larry Mize
  • Mark O’Meara
  • Mike Weir
  • Sandy Lyle
  • Tom Watson
  • Alan Dunbar
  • Michael Weaver
  • Steven Fox
  • T. J. Vogel
  • Tianlang Guan
  • Nathan Smith

I would also eliminate the following:

  1. Players who are first-time invitees
  2. Players whose first Tour win came this year

Since 1935, only one winner has won The Masters in his first appearance; Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. So I would shy away from picking these players:

  • Branden Grace
  • David Lynn
  • George Coetzee
  • Jamie Donaldson
  • John Huh
  • John Peterson
  • Nicolas Colsaerts
  • Russell Henley
  • Scott Piercy
  • Ted Potter Jr.
  • Thaworn Wiratchant
  • Thorbjørn Olesen
  • Kevin Streelman
  • John Merrick
No. 12 green at Augusta National

No. 12 at Augusta National, a par 3 that is one of Hunt’s “Critical Holes” for a Masters Champion.

I would also eliminate players who missed the cut at the Valero Open this past week:

  • David Toms
  • Gonzalo Fdez-Castano

I will also filter out the European Tour players that I do not have substantial data on:

  • Thomas Bjorn
  • Paul Lawrie
  • Richard Sterne
  • Francesco Molinari

Now, we start to get to the nitty-gritty of Augusta. Over the past 10 years, Augusta has heavily favored long hitters who hit the ball well from what I call “The Danger Zone.”

The Danger Zone is approach shots from 175- to 225 yards. This is the biggest key because without quality Danger Zone play at the Masters, the golfer will not be successful.

While Augusta National is known for its greens, the make percentage on putts is fairly high from inside 15 feet; likely due to the excellent putting surfaces. The real difficulty on the greens at Augusta is from longer than 20 feet away.

Between the undulations and the super-fast green speed, it becomes a task to not 3-putt on long putts at Augusta. The big reason why long hitters do so well at Augusta now is that the course plays like a par 68 for them, and that allows them to get away with putting worse. So, if a player is not long, they had been bring their putting and Danger Zone play with them. If a player is long, they can get away with lesser putting.

First, I will eliminate the players that I think are too short to play well at Augusta National:

  • Tim Clark
  • Brian Gay
  • Jim Furyk
  • Matteo Manassero
  • Ben Curtis
  • Kevin Na
  • Hiroyuki Fujita
  • Zach Johnson

I will also take out the players that have struggled from the Danger Zone this year.

  • Martin Kaymer
  • Ryan Moore
  • Ian Poulter
  • Steve Stricker
  • Hunter Mahan
  • Jason Dufner
  • Ryo Ishikawa
  • Fredrik Jacobson
  • Trevor Immelman
  • Jason Day

Also, Augusta National does not take too kindly to low ball hitters.

Graeme McDowell's only major championship win came at the 2010 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, where hit low ball flight helped him control the ball in the wind.

Graeme McDowell’s only major championship win came at the 2010 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, where his low ball flight helped him control the ball in the wind.

  • John Senden
  • Carl Pettersson
  • Graeme McDowell
  • Stewart Cink
  • D.A. Points

These players simply have not done much this season to warrant a pick:

  • Robert Garrigus
  • Lucas Glover
  • Retief Goosen
  • Peter Hanson
  • Padraig Harrington
  • Vijay Singh
  • Michael Thompson
  • Bo Van Pelt
  • Ernie Els
  • Webb Simpson

That brings us down to 23 players:

  • Keegan Bradley
  • Angel Cabrera
  • K.J. Choi
  • Luke Donald
  • Rickie Fowler
  • Sergio Garcia
  • Bill Haas
  • Dustin Johnson
  • Matt Kuchar
  • Martin Laird
  • Marc Leishman
  • Rory McIlroy
  • Phil Mickelson
  • Louis Oosthuizen
  • Justin Rose
  • Charl Schwartzel
  • Adam Scott
  • Brandt Snedeker
  • Henrik Stenson
  • Nick Watney
  • Bubba Watson
  • Lee Westwood
  • Tiger Woods

I don’t pick players that are better than 10/1 odds, so that means Tiger (7/2) and Rory McIlroy (8/1) are out. But, let’s take a look at Tiger’s key metrics so far this year:

  • Driving Effectiveness: 108th
  • Birdie Zone (75-125 yards): 41st
  • Safe Zone (125-175 yards): 46th
  • Danger Zone (175-225 yards): 43rd
  • Short Game (1-20 yards): 20th
  • Strokes Gained Putting: 1st

While Tiger has been extremely successful this year, his effectiveness of the tee should be a concern. Furthermore, he’s been much more conservative off the tee by leaving his driver in the bag more often than he was last year.

The reason for Tiger’s success this year is due to his putting. Not only is he making a lot of putts, but he’s No. 1 in putts made from 15- to 25 feet. Typically, putts made from more than 15 feet on Tour is a ‘volatile’ metric. Meaning, a player can rank well in putts made from longer than 15 feet one month and then rankly poorly the next month.

With Tiger’s conservative nature off the tee, he’s giving up a lot of yards to the elite players on Tour. But, between his strong iron play and incredible long putting, he is able to find the green and make putts.

Tiger Woods puts the Green Jacket on 2003 Masters winner Mike Weir.

His game reminds me a bit of Mike Weir’s game in 2003 when Weir was a mediocre driver of the ball, but a top-5 player from 125-200 yards and a top-5 putter in the world. However, Weir needed soft conditions to help him win a Green Jacket. While Tiger hits the ball much longer than Weir did in 2003, I just tend to think that he’s leaving too much to risk if he goes conservative off the tee. I can understand making Tiger a favorite, but I think he’s more realistically a 9/1 odds or so to win.

And with that, here are my top-10 picks (Rory and Tiger excluded):

Phil Mickelson (10/1)
Justin Rose (20/1)
Dustin Johnson (25/1)
Lee Westwood (25/1)
Louis Oosthuizen (25/1)
Keegan Bradley (28/1)
Rickie Fowler (45/1)
Henrik Stenson (50/1)
Nick Watney (50/1)
Bill Haas (75/1)

Now it’s time to sit back and enjoy the show.

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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

32 Comments

32 Comments

  1. gus Terranova

    Apr 15, 2013 at 6:26 pm

    Fowler will never win a major.

  2. harry

    Apr 15, 2013 at 8:15 am

    I’m impressed, 8 of the top 10 in your 23. Well played, and another 4 in the next 13. Please do this more often!

  3. Rimrock

    Apr 11, 2013 at 9:35 am

    Great post. However, too many times I have seen Mickelson fade in the last round especially his putting. Also, he is older and physically I don’t know if he is up to 72 holes especially if it gets hot. Justin Rose would be my pick.

    Glad to see you didn’t put Tiger in there.

    As we all know, anyone can breakout and play over their heads but with the pressure of “The Masters”, the weather and the media (not to exclude playing golf itself) for me it is anyones guess and all the stats go into a cocked hat.

  4. Chad

    Apr 10, 2013 at 11:41 pm

    Very good post. But how did Luke Donald escape your “too short to play well at Augusta” list?

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 11, 2013 at 8:34 am

      The too short list is more about clubhead speed than actual distance. Luke is not long off the tee due to having a downward attack angle with the driver. But, he generates 110-111 mph of clubhead speed. Not super fast, but fast enough where he can contend.

      He is probably the most similar player to 2003 Mike Weir. Last year he struggled with his switch to new irons. But, if he can regain his iron play form from 2011, he has a shot with his putting and how forgiving the fairways and rough are at ANGC.

  5. Brad

    Apr 10, 2013 at 8:37 pm

    John Merrick has played twice in The Masters. He missed the cut in 2010, but he had a t-6 (-8)in 2009.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 11, 2013 at 8:36 am

      Merrick is in that part of the list (along with Streelman) because I grouped players who fit one of the following criteria:

      1. First time invitee

      or

      2. Won their first Tour even this year.

      Both Merrick and Streelman are #2. I understand…it wasn’t really worded clearly.

  6. Josh

    Apr 10, 2013 at 7:41 am

    Paddy Harrington has 2 top 10s in his last 2 starts worldwide. How can you claim he hasn’t done enough this year to qualify when Cabrera doesnt have a top 15 all yr

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 10, 2013 at 9:54 am

      I didn’t put Cabrera in my top-10 either. But with Harrington his metrics haven’t been very strong in some key areas. I will say that I like where his game is headed from a statistical standpoint. Much better than it was a couple of years ago.

  7. Brad

    Apr 10, 2013 at 12:00 am

    Great column Rich. Well done. You don’t think Hanson is playing well enough? He ticks a lot of key boxes this week (Driving Distance, scoring average, scrambling, par 5 performance).

    You also selected Shrek. Is this based on his danger zone play? The rest of his stats or just okay, he’s not that long, and his form is in question no?

    Lastly, no room for Adam Scott and Charl in your top 10? Great stats and distance numbers.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 10, 2013 at 9:52 am

      Stenson is in my top-10. He’s played fantastic this year from a ballstriking perspective and hits it a mile. Westwood’s main strength is from what I call the Safe Zone (shots from 125-175 yards). He’s usually pretty good from the Danger Zone as well and a very good driver.

      Last year he struggled from the Danger Zone for a while and then eventually improved from there. But, it cost him big events, particularly the US Open.

      This year he seems to be on track except for the putter.

      I like Schwartzel’s game from a statistical perspective a lot. But this year he just hasn’t gotten it going. And he ranked 66th out of 120 players from the Valero Open in my Driving Effectiveness ranking. I just think he’s not playing all that great for him at this moment.

      I really considered both Schwartzel and Scott. But with Scott he is another guy that hasn’t logged in a lot of rounds this year so there’s insufficient data. That’s not always a problem if the rest of the group hasn’t shown me much.

      But, Rickie Fowler’s metrics are quite strong this year. Dustin Johnson has struggled from the Danger Zone, but I think that was the entire winning the 1st tournament of the year and dating Paulina Gretzky. I think he’s getting back close to form and the course fits him pretty well. In particular, he’s putting quite well this year which is a scary thought with his game.

  8. Alec Hilliard

    Apr 9, 2013 at 10:45 pm

    Id like sneds in the top 10, but thats just me, and im assuming that tiger and rory are in that top 10. (12) with them included

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 11, 2013 at 8:40 am

      I liked Snedeker’s chances a few week ago, obviously. He’s a great putter and hits the ball high, which plays into Augusta. The problem for him is that he’s always been suspect from the Danger Zone and off the tee and that’s why I think he hasn’t won a major yet despite having the opportunity. We saw this at the Ryder Cup, particularly in the Furyk/Snedeker vs. Rory/McDowell 1st match. They tied it up and Sneds was teeing off #18 and put it into the woods. Somehow, Furyk got the blame for the loss.

      Anyway, he hasn’t played well since the rib injury and the courses he has played well at have fit his style (sans Torrey Pines, which he always plays well at for whatever reason).

      And yes, Tiger and Rory are included for a ‘top-12’, but the return on betting on them is too small for my tastes.

  9. Troy Vayanos

    Apr 9, 2013 at 5:28 pm

    Great post Rich,

    Yes I had my top 5 in that list as well. Tiger is the number one choice for me but I see dangers in Phil Mickelson, Matt Kuchar, Justin Rose and Louis Oosthuizen. I expect all of them to be thereabouts come Sunday.

    I have this feeling Matt Kuchar is going to be in the top 3 again this year!

  10. Socorr4

    Apr 9, 2013 at 5:03 pm

    Nerves aree fundamental for success at majors unless you’re lucky enough to slide in the back door. The big hitters have an advantage of putting for eagles on on par 5’s, but it’s rare to get the ball close enough for a realistic chance to pick up a stroke on the field on these four holes. The par 3’s are equal for all, so what the winner must do is hit consistently to within 20 feet on the par 4’s. Almost everyone will be using 7 irons or less to the majority of their second shots on these holes. Long hitters have an advantage because they’ll use shorter clubs to aim for the pin, but they sometimes lack the skills required to save par on any missed greens.

    As is almost always the case, it all comes down to putting, and whoever has the best reads throughout four days should win. You cast Tiger and Rory aside for a frivolous reason and at some risk. The next best putter on your list of 23 is Snedeker, and it’s not clear why you left him off the short list. Of those on the short list, I like Bradley unless the demons get to him, and especially DJ if he can keep his putting game under control.

    • Steven

      Apr 9, 2013 at 5:13 pm

      Snedeker has missed his last two cuts. He hasn’t been the same since his injury.

  11. Brad P.

    Apr 9, 2013 at 3:50 pm

    Good analysis. Who is actually going to win though? Kuchar. And he’s not in your “Top 10”

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 9, 2013 at 4:31 pm

      Kuchar was in my top-10 last year and came in 2nd. This year it’s hard to tell because he hasn’t logged many rounds and when he has, he’s been rather unspectacular. That doesn’t mean he can’t win because as players like Kuchar become more success, they log in less rounds. However, I’d rather pick players who have more data from this year and have performed well at key spots.

  12. Gary Lewis

    Apr 9, 2013 at 1:01 pm

    I like your picks. I am hoping someone like Westwood will break through and win a major but always want Phil to win another one. If Tiger can drive the ball well enough he should have a good chance, but that has been a big problem for him of late. Should be very interesting, as it always is.

  13. Steve

    Apr 9, 2013 at 12:50 pm

    Hmm, certainly a lot of thought put into this. Having said that, the majors are a completely different animal from regular tour events and personally I feel need to be analyzed differently.

    Removing Zach Johnson from the mix due to his short length is a bit silly really, given that he’s a past champion, but that’s already been mentioned.

    Also, while I agree that players competing in the Masters for the first time are at a disadvantage, I wouldn’t throw David Lynn under the bus quite so quickly as you did. Second place finish to Rory at last years PGA with flashes of form recently whisper to me that he could be up there. While of course I doubt he can win it, he is long odds and, in my eyes, a perfect E/W.

    In summary, I like your top ten, however I would replace DJ with Zach Johnson. Stenson is another one who I’d be a bit wobbly about, but he does seem to like Augusta National.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 9, 2013 at 1:01 pm

      First, Zach has not played well this year. But ANGC simply no longer allows short but accurate hitters to truly contend unless something happens with the weather. Look at the top-10 finishers over the past 3 years. Essentially, the shortest hitters in the bunch have been either KJ Choi, Poulter or Matt Kuchar who are about average to slightly below average in length. They were also great Danger Zone players in those years. And none of them won.

      Dustin Johnson concerns me because he has struggled from the Danger Zone this year. But he has been a top-10 player from that Distance throughout his entire career. I chalk it up to the ‘Paulina Gretzky flu’, but I think he’ll regain his old form (and he’s been playing better recently).

  14. Rob

    Apr 9, 2013 at 12:44 pm

    Nice catch Ed! I agree with your comments about Tiger and his driving. That will be his downfall in the Masters and the other majors this year. I see another 0-4 record in 2013.

  15. Pingback: Happy Masters Week – Day #2 – Apps and Articles | The Rogers

  16. john

    Apr 9, 2013 at 12:20 pm

    You could have made it even easier and eliminated all but the one who is going to win it…Tiger, Tiger Woods yall!

  17. Ed

    Apr 9, 2013 at 12:19 pm

    Craig Stadler did not win in his first appearance, but his 6th. Fuzzy Zoeller is the only modern player to win in his first appearance.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 9, 2013 at 12:55 pm

      Thanks for pointing that out as I got the two mixed up on a bad error on my part. With that said, it still proves the point that first time invitees do not fare well in winning the Green Jacket as Zoeller won back in ’79.

  18. chris

    Apr 9, 2013 at 12:06 pm

    Nice job Rich. I would say you are spot on with the winner being…..Phil of course 🙂

  19. Jason

    Apr 9, 2013 at 12:02 pm

    I don’t like how he cut out players that are “too short” to win the masters including Zach Johnson. Zach proved you don’t have to be long to win. He didn’t go for a single par 5 in two the year he won.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 9, 2013 at 12:53 pm

      Zach won when there was record cold temperatures at Augusta. That made the par-5’s less reachable for the long hitters and they had to use more wedges into those greens so the advantage shifted back towards Zach. The weather is supposed to be nice this week in Augusta outside of some late showers on Friday, so this does not bode well for short hitters.

  20. Billy

    Apr 9, 2013 at 11:43 am

    Sorry missed Rickie in your top ten!

  21. Billy

    Apr 9, 2013 at 11:43 am

    Interesting analysis. I like your top-ten, but I would opt for Rickie over Westwood. While Rickie may have a few more loose shots in his bag, I’ll pick Rickie’s putting over Westwood’s everyday. If Westwood can putt this week he’ll have a good chance, but he’s liable to have terrible putting.

    • Nik

      Apr 10, 2013 at 1:51 pm

      Rickie’s not that good of a putter. He putted well at Bay Hill but it kind of an anomaly.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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