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2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic and British Masters: Betting Tips

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Working on tee-to-green figures is a given for any golf punter, but there are a few ways to get there.

Over in Detroit, it may seem too easy to say ‘bombs away,’ but with Bryson, Matt Wolff, Joaquin Niemann, Cam Davis and Taylor Pendrith just some of the big drivers that have won or contended, we’ll take that as the metric for success.

British Masters

Back in leafy Warwickshire, the tee to green game is naturally vital, but there have been a variety of ways to get there.

Whether it’s off the tee or via the irons, the leaderboards of the past two runnings have contained nine of the top 10 from peg to short stuff. Enough evidence for me.

Let’s have the ‘simple’ formula of players in some form over the past few weeks, along with form at similar tree-lines or narrower tracks.

Contenders over the past couple of years Sebastian Soderberg, Richie Ramsay, Richard Bland and Guido Migliozzi may total a small sample but all point to form at Crans, Kenya, Valderrama and the AD Links, little surprise to anyone looking for players that thrive on quality ball-striking.

In that regard, Jordan Smith must hold interest even at 18/1. His latest outing resulted in a top-20 at the US Open and followed a brave attempt at regaining his European Open title. Still, I found it tough to split him and Adrian Meronk, two of the best players on the tour so have left them alone.

Not long ago, we might have expected Robert MacIntyre to have been contending for favouritism this week, so at double the price of the Polish star, I’ll take a chance that recent changes will see a return to the sort of form that beat Matt Fitzpatrick, Victor Perez and Rory McIlory in Italy in September last year.

Having had the Ryder Cup as his number one target for a while, the significance of that win at this year’s host venue cannot be overplayed. Indeed, recent changes to his coaching staff and caddie can only point to the belief that he has one target in his head.

“It is my main goal, my only goal for the next year,” MacIntyre said after winning in Italy. “I have done it on the golf course.”

He had been doing nothing wrong, but equally nothing outstanding before that second DPWT victory, “but we worked on a few things on Tuesday and Wednesday and I felt so in control of my golf ball this week.”

It’s a similar story coming into the British Masters.

April saw a run of three top-10 finishes, including in Kenya and Korea where, at both, he went off in the final group.

The 26-year-old’s recent improvements, from 68th to 18th in Munich and 80th to 14th at Green Eagle, must surely give him hope for upcoming tournaments, including the Scottish Open and final major of the year.

Last season’s 36th place finish here disguises that he was the only one of the top-10 ranked from tee-to-green that failed to finish in the top-20. Everything fired apart from the putter, with which he lost nearly five strokes on the field.

Runner-up at Hillside in 2019, he has a top-10 around this venue, at Valderrama, Joburg (Bland runner-up, Meronk third) and at the Gary Player Club. It’s a when, not if, and any slight improvement on last week’s gains from the fairway and with the putter will see him right there.

32-year-old Max Kieffer has given his home support much to cheer about when running-up at Green Eagle and finishing third in Muich a couple of weeks later.

Things could have been better for Kieffer, having disputed the lead for much of the European Open, a similar tale to his play-off defeat at the Austrian Open in 2021. That he could compete on a lengthy track that didn’t play to his advantage is a pointer to even better around The Belfry. 

A week after the five-hole trial against John Catlin, the German recorded a final round 62 to finish second again, this time in Gran Canaria.

Given Kieffer recently went 16th/5th in Korea and Italy, it’s worth holding onto him when in form. With his stats in rude health – third for driving accuracy, 20th for ball-striking, 34th in greens, and top-30 for putting average, and proven when in form, he goes on the plan.

Guido Migliozzi was a much bigger price when the market opened, but still represents value at 70.1.

The Italian was put in the class of ‘could-be-anything’ after his two impressive victories in 2019, one of which significantly came at the Kenya Open at Karen. 

It hasn’t been easy-going since then, but he ran up three times in 2021 – in Qatar (when beaten by a wonder-putt from Antoine Rozner) at Himmerland when thrashed by a rampant Bernd Wiesberger and, in-between, by Richard Bland around here, beaten after having missed a two-putt from a middle distance on the final par-five). The 26-year-old also put up top-10s at Crans and the U.S Open (!) for good measure, whilst a 12th at Karen is no harm.

Guido’s Qatar form links nicely with this week’s defending champion Thorbjorn Olesen, whilst his previous form at Valderrama and the Links give the hope that last week’s 10th is the catalyst for better to come on a more suitable track.

Figures have been trending nicely. Guido had a spurt through April that gave his many supporters real hope. However, after drifting away again, he left Munich recording positives in tee-to-green and putting, and he arrives at a place we know he can play.

I’ll add Ewen Ferguson simply as he is continuing to look too big for a multiple winner. 

It is just 14 months since the inexperienced Scot threw away a final day lead in Kenya before winning a grind in Qatar (Meronk third with Justin Harding, a perfect link to all significant tracks, in fifth place).

In August, the 26-year-old waltzed home with a stunning display at Galgorm Castle and would have made it three for the year but for an indescribably brilliant display on the dance floor by Oliver Wilson, whose only previous victory was the Alfred Dunhill Links.

So form ties up nicely, we just need to forgive two recent missed cuts. I can do that.

Fergy’s last eight starts have yielded consecutive top four finishes in South Africa, 10th at the KLM and 14th at Green Eagle, an event at which he held a place in the top-10 for 54 holes. The Scot continues to churn out quality figures for approaches (top-20 for all his last six completed starts) and tee-to-green (plus figures for all six). Should he repeat those, I’m expecting him to leave his two missed-cuts well behind.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat makes no sense stats-wise.

The Thai has had a mixed season, but the best reads well. Alphie has recorded top-six figures for irons and tee-to-green in Singapore (finished 49th), top-10 for both to finish 15th in the Soudal, and eighth for tee-to-green to finish in the top five in the KLM.

It’s clear he has issues away from his irons at the moment, but I can’t forget how he should have won at Wentworth in 2021, and has relatable form at Malaysia, Links, Nedbank and Italy.

It might be an ask on immediate form but it’s in May that he secured back-to-back top-15 finishes in similar company. Back him to do that again.

Rocket Mortgage Classic

Over in Detroit, the defending champion described the course as ‘easy’.

Okay, that’s pretty simple when cruising clear of Patrick Cantlay et al, but with recent rain now making it even easier, think of last week’s form at River Highlands, when softened greens made it a birdie-fest. Who knows what Big Tone will say of it now?

The event itself doesn’t make as much appeal as the one taking place at The Belfry, but I’ll row along with four players that should give us a run. 

Up top, it’s tough to split Tony Finau and the red-hot Rickie Fowler.

Finau looks ripe to go well again under even easier conditions than last year’s romp. With three of his five wins coming in 20-under or lower, the drop in grade out of ‘elevated’ status means he has to go well. He would be my choice for those looking for a safe place return at worst.

Another safe conveyance should be Sungjae Im, who drives me a bit mad with his lack of wins, but for whom this drop from the highest grade should be a boost.

Previous to missing three of his last five cuts, the Korean went on a run of four top-10 finishes in five starts before winning a lesser event on his home tour.

Sixth at Sawgrass works well with previous contenders Bryson, Cam Davis, Taylor Pendrith and Cam Young, while the seventh place at The Heritage works with most of those named, plus Patrick Cantlay, of course runner-up to Finau 12 months ago. 

Cantlay also ties form in with the Shriners at Summerlin (see the one-two from 2020), the scene of Sungjae’s most valuable victory (Wolff second, with Aaron Wise being another link between the comp courses).

With Wyndham form in abundance, his best game lines up with Si Woo Kim, a Memorial specialist that helps tie in Cantlay again. KIt also brings in Kevin Kisner, a similar short driver, whose form at Sawgrass and Heritage rides nicely alongside two top-10s around the Detroit track.

Fairway-finding should enable Sungjae to attack the pins as he can, and I can see both him and compatriot Tom Kim giving the Koreans plenty to shout about.

Let’s talk about Tom Kim. 

If the comp courses are correct, the 21-year-old’s two victories give him more than leading claims.

A five-shot victor over the first selection at Sedgefield, he then followed up with a three-shot victory over Cantlay and Matt NeSmith, a repeat contender at the Shriners.

Last week’s top-40 at the Travelers could have been so much better but for dropping 10 shots at the start of his back nine through rounds one and three.

Of note, however, is Kim’s final round 65, five-under on the card but one that could have been far better, consisting of six birdies and one eagle. That brings back memories of his final round at Detroit on debut last year, when he shot a best-of-the-day 63.

It’s all coming together after a very respectable top-10 at the U.S Open, and whilst Im has to be priced as he is, perhaps Kim deserves to be.

The hugely consistent Brian Harman is too tempting to ignore, particularly after a closing 64/64 had him run-up to Keegan Bradley last week. That wasn’t the first solid effort from a player that surprised me by being #27 in the world rankings.

Placed many times at Harbour Town, Sawgrass, and Sedgefield, Harman is the unsexy player of the world, never really given the respect his consistency deserves but, with similar conditions in front of him this week I’ll take him to overcome a pair of missed cuts over the last two years.

The diminutive 36-year-old has never played badly here, with a pair of 70s and 71s simply not good enough to make the weekend against low scoring. He hasn’t played here since 2020, but he arrives with his irons good enough to rank him in the top-20 for his last three completed starts.

I was tempted by the case for Taylor Pendrith but it lies purely with the driver and I’m not sure the rest of his current game is anywhere near the right form to exploit it. Instead, go for the totally unexposed Kevin Yu.

Chan-an Yu, or Kevin to his friends, qualified status on the KFT via the PGA Tour’s University programme, a complicated system that rewards the very best of college golfers. His full story is here.

That doesn’t really matter. What does is the excellent start he has made to his PGA Tour rookie season and his mid-season ranking of third off-the-tee, 37th for approaches and a combined ninth for tee-to-green.

Scoring-wise, the Chinese Taipei player ranks in sixth for par-4 birdies or better and 14th for the longer holes, expected of someone averaging 308 yards off the peg. 

Form is improving too in 2023, an opening 20th in Hawaii followed by 44th at Torrey Pines, seventh place at Pebble Beach and last week’s 49th at River Highlands, dropping from inside the top-10 at halfway. That follows some progressive hints at the end of 2022 when top-20 at the Sanderson Farms and third in Bermuda.

An Arizona graduate, Yu was third in the 2019 NCAA D1 Championship, behind none other than Matt Wolff, and in the same year won the Australian Master of the Amateurs, held at Royal Melbourne, a course that hosted Aaron Wise’s victory three years previously.

Yu’s glaring weakness is the short game but that will come. For now, get with a player for whom there is no visible ceiling and who brings what might be the most vital asset to the table.

Recommended Bets:

British Masters

  • Robert MacIntyre 
  • Max Kieffer 
  • Ewen Ferguson 
  • Guido Migliozzi 
  • Kiradech Aphiebarnrat – Top-20 

Rocket Mortgage Classic

  • Tom Kim 
  • Sungjae Im 
  • Brian Harman 
  • Kevin Yu 
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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