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The best bets for the 2023 Travelers Championship and BMW International

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In what seems an intense season for golf, the tournaments simply don’t let up.

After a tiring US Open, new hero Wyndham Clark joins world numbers one to six at the long-standing Travelers Championship, whilst Adrian Meronk heads 10 players of the US Open field travelling from Los Angeles to Munich for the BMW International.

TPC River Highlands can play to the long hitter with little penalty from average rough, but both Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson, sharing four victories between them, take pains to mention the importance of being in the fairway. For players such as these, it is as simple as fairway, wedge, fairway, wedge.

BMW International

On the rotating courses in Munich, the class elements have proven superior, with Viktor Hovland, Ernie Els and Martin Kaymer leading the way. However, both Kaymer, Thomas Pieters and Matt Fitzpatrick have also been defeated by less fancied rivals, and there is a case for saying the very top of this particular market is easily opposable.

Best bet of the week remains two-time course winner Pablo Larrazabal in Germany. ‘Still’, because even though the bookmakers have cut the 30-1, he remains 10-odd points bigger than the likes of Rasmus Hojgaard (failed to convert at least four genuine chances at his last 16 events) and the same price as Romain Langasque, a player with obvious credentials but without a victory since August 2020.

The 40-year-old Spaniard is currently playing as well as he has done, with four wins in 27 starts, and credentials that fit the ideal profile for the event.

Pablo ranks 14th in overall performance on tour for the last six months, making gains from tee-to-green despite typical mercurial driving. Despite that, his short game is in top order, ranking in the top echelons of this field for scrambling, around-the-green and putting.

There is plenty of evidence of a linksy background to contenders here, and the selection’s form at Abu Dhabi (see Pieters for similarity) sees a victory from Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson, and a runner-up behind Tommy Fleetwood, and a top-10 containing Kaymer, Weisberger, Lee Westwood and Henrik Stenson, all players with wins or top placings here.

Form in Malaysia behind Shubhankar Sharma correlates nicely given the Indian’s two Abu Dhabi top-10s and a 7th place in Turkey (see last year’s champ). In second place, Jorge Campillo links nicely, as does Ryan Fox, with a 26th, 14th and third around Eichenried.

Despite the missed-cut at LACC, Pablo proved his well-being during the first round, being one of only three players to hit every fairway. Should he repeat that, or much of his form of 2023, he must go close to nabbing his third win of the year and his highest ever world ranking.

I’ll back up the main bet (by some way) with cross-doubles involving, among others, South African Zander Lombard, extremely unpredictable but who, this year, has a runner-up at Ras Al Khaimah (Meronk in fourth, Hojgaard sixth), 6th in Singapore, and another second place at home in Steyn City. It may be of note that Shaun Norris, winner of the Steyn City Championship in 2022, finished in the top-10 behind Hovland here a year previous.

I’m intrigued by the two runnings of the Rocco Forte Open, one of the great links correlations. According to OWGR, Lombard’s play-off loss to Alvaro Quiros in 2017 is his best ever effort, finishing a shot in front of last year’s BMW champ, Li.

Further to that, in 2018, the top 10 contained Andy Sullivan (fifth here in 2021), Dodo Molinari (third and 21st here) and Andrea Pavan (beat Fitzpatrick in 2019).

The first of the final two to go into the plan is Guido Migliozzi, who has shown enough in a 20th in Abu Dhabi, 23rd in Japan and 14th in Korea this year to think he may be on the way back to the form that won three events in his early career. In Kenya he beat subsequent BMW top-10 finisher Justin Harding, in Belgium another in Darius Van Driel, whilst he was too good for Hojgaard in France less than a year ago.

Past form sees a pair of top-15 finishes at the US Open and form at Qatar, Oman, Turkey and Crans.

Lastly, back to Sharma, he of that Maybank form, and a runner-up behind Pieters at Abu in 2022.

In that particular event, the top-20 contained Rafa Cabrera-Bello (a pair of bronze medals here), Hovland, Weisberger, Horsfield, Bjork and Hojgaard.

Best efforts in 2023 include a seventh place at Abu to start the year, while the last of three subsequent top-16 finishes came in the Netherlands less than a month ago. I’ll take the chance at the price.

Travelers Championship

Over at River Highlands, I can’t ignore the best player in the world.

At just one point shorter than for the US Open, Scottie Scheffler makes a great appeal against market rivals with question marks.

There is little point on repeating what the 26-year-old has achieved over the last couple of years. Oh, it’s six wins, a green jacket and four other major top-10s – but it simply has not stopped.

The 26-year-old’s worst finish this year is 12th, the last seven outings (including three majors) see an average final position of around seventh place, he ranks top five in almost every stat apart from the glaring loss on the greens.

It’s no exaggeration to suggest that, despite the putting woes, the favourite has been just two or three strokes away from listing another four ‘w’s on the card. With improving course form of 47th (11th at halfway) and 13th last year and with a measure of improvement with the flat stick last week – that’s enough for me. Shove him in your doubles with Pablo.

Alongside the obvious, I’ll take Tom Kim, whose tee-to-green game looked back to form at LA last week, and who has previously managed to overcome lack of course knowledge to thrash Wyndham specialist Sungjae Im and Summerlin constant Patrick Cantlay for his two wins last year.

It’s been an up-and-down year for the popular Korean but not without promise.

The year opened with a solid top five finish around the unsuitable Kapalua and a top six at the Dye-influenced American Express. Things have been up-and-down since but top-20 at Augusta and 23rd at Quail Hollow work fine given his fledgling career.

Whilst neither the second major nor Memorial were much to write about, he bounced back to form last week when becoming only the fifth player in US Open history to shoot a front or back-nine 29.

Ranking fourth for greens-in-reg, top-10 for tee-to-green and fourth for putting average, the 20-year-old sounded happy with his return to form and the outing on a shorter track has to suit even more.

Sahith Theegala made his professional debut at this event three years ago, and it’s about time he nabbed that first solo victory.

Much has been expected of the 25-year-old winner of the big three college awards, and he deserves to take revenge for unfortunate defeats at both the Phoenix Open and at this event last year.

His bad luck at the 17th hole in Scottsdale meant he couldn’t compete with Scheffler and Cantlay in the play-off, and he made an incorrect shot at the 72nd hole a year ago. Back 12 months and it’s doubtful this excellent prospect would repeat the decision to play straight over the lip of the fairway bunker.

Leave that aside and the 2022 season finished with three top six finishes, including a further runner-up at the RSM Classic, before he showed off some sparkling iron play alongside Tom Hoge to win a pairs event.

2023 has seen the selection make 14 cuts from 14, including finishing fourth at Torrey Pines and sixth at Riviera. A top-15 finish at Bay Hill completed a more-than-satisfactory trio of results at elevated events.

Since then, Theegala has recorded a top-10 at Augusta, fifth at Dye-designed Harbour Town and last week’s top-30 at the US Open, and he surely comes here ready to perform.

Chez Reavie, 2019 Travelers champion, is a solid bet at 200/1 after making his fourth cut in a row at the Canadian Open, his seventh from eight starts.

Since winning this event, the 41-year-old has finished 46th, 25th and eighth around here, whilst back-form also includes three top-20 finishes at Deere Run, a trio of top-10s at Riviera and a victory in Canada, the highlight of five top-25 finishes at that event, similar to the form he has shown here.

Through a number of players, including 2021 champ Harris English, his play-off loss at the Phoenix Open reads nicely, and whilst his win at the Barracuda last year was a league below this one, it came after a steady run of form that is similar to the one he is currently recording.

Just two months ago, Reavie posted a sixth place in Texas and an 11th at the Masters, whilst his 65 at the final round at Oakdale came via a closing 28, a rare beast indeed.

5/1 for a top-20 is a very tempting prospect for this course specialist, but we might as well have a go for the big one too.

Recommended Bets:

BMW International

  • Pablo Larrazabal 
  • Zander Lombard 
  • Guido Migliozzi 
  • Shubhankar Sharma 

Travelers

  • Scottie Scheffler 
  • Tom Kim 
  • Sahith Theegala 
  • Chez Reavie 
  • Chex Reavie Top-20 
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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