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Tour Rundown: Berger wins at Pebble, golf world wakes up

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The 2021 AT&T Pro-Am at Pebble Beach was one for the memory, and not just for the eventual champion, Daniel Berger. The week began with the cold reality that pro-am participants, and the fans that they attracted, would not participate. The announcement had been made weeks before, but to see Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach golf courses, essentially unimpeded, was a not-unwelcome opportunity.

In the absence of the celebrities and those who can afford (and receive) a sport in the Pro-Am, a full field of 156 golfers was able to start play on Thursday on the Monterey peninsula. Tour Rundown takes a look at what defined this year’s event, and how it might be shaped for years to come.

Berger is very good when he’s very good

If you follow golf (and your presence here suggests that you might) you’ve read ad nauseum that Daniel Berger was the hottest golfer on tour in the weeks leading up to the 2020 pandemic shutdown. It was true then, and it may be developing into a different shape in 2021. When a Florida kid wins on California greens, especially those at Pebble Beach, it’s big news. To put it bluntly, they’re not the same kind of putting surface. We’ll talk about that in a bit.

For Berger to shoot 65, with a pair of eagles, including one at the final hole, was stunning and telling. Berger is a gamer and should be a fixture on USA Ryder and Presidents Cup teams. He is that strong and, with the proper partner, would be a double weapon for the Red, White, and Blue. Look for Berger to win at more than one of the Florida events that run from late February to late March.

California kids went away on the weekend

What about those raised in the region? They didn’t go away, but they didn’t win. In fact, if not for Berger’s brilliance, one of them might have won. Maverick McNealy, Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, and Cameron Tringale are all natives of the USA’s 31st state. Each of them had a storied amateur career, including stints on the USA side of the Walker Cup. Each of them seeks to establish himself on the PGA Tour as a consistent winner.

Sunday was an opportunity for the foursome, but something impeded their individual marches to the top of the podium. McNealy had a pair of bogeys on the outward nine, but my goodness, he did post 8 birdies on his way to a career-best, solo second-place finish. Cantlay began the week with a 10-under effort at Pebble, but struggled on Friday and Saturday (where he really lost the tournament.) His play Sunday was strong, but when 65s and 66s were available for the taking, a 68 wasn’t going to get the job done. Since Max Homa gave up his side-hustle of Funny Twitter Guy, he’s turned in some sizable performances. Bogey on two hole on Sunday’s back nine revealed that some work lies ahead, but top ten means that he’ll have the security to do so. Tringale is the elder statesman of this group, by a few years. His work on Sunday was similar to that of McNealy: lots of birdies (7) and a pair of bogeys. Tringale needed to be perfect, but perfection eluded him on this day.

Back to those greens

The putting surfaces at Pebble, and many courses along the California coast, wage annual war with poa annua and nematodes. The former is a grass that invades desirable putting-green grasses and can be a devil to eliminate, both at cost and work hours. The latter is a type of worm that can do severe damage to gardens and grasses. Putting on poa annua is an art form, not usually mastered by East Coast golfers. In Florida, the dominant grasses found on putting surfaces are strains of Bermuda, which is essentially a weed found across the southern hemisphere. Putts tend to break more and run slower. Even professional golfers admit to great comfort in one of three regions: west, southeast, or north (where bent grasses are most common.) While the PGA Tour does play on surfaces that are groomed to near perfection, kids still grow up on imperfect surfaces and get to know those surfaces well. That’s why Berger winning this week is such a big deal.

Who put a hex on round three?

Francesco Molinari topped a tee shot at the first hole, Akshay Bhatia chunked his approach to the 8th green (but did make it over the chasm), and Vincent Whaley laid up on the par-three twelfth hole. That’s three odd shots in one round, and television caught two of them live. Perhaps the professionals do it more than we expect (which is never), and perhaps the absence of amateurs allowed us to see more of the professionals (we’ll discuss that next), but still, seeing clubs go off-line and shots go awry was equal parts jolting and comforting.

Should the amateurs return?

In one word: no. We don’t love golf for the antics of the celebrities, and we don’t need to see corporate types who clearly have enough time to get their games in shape to play well on a big stage. It’s cool for them to receive an invitation, but the return for golf is not equitable.

The celebrities slow up the process in three ways: fan interaction, in-round interviews, and bad play. Fan interaction is nice but can be encouraged in ways beyond dancing elderly ladies into bunkers. In-round interviews are insightful, but always incite slow play, which makes rounds drag on, and opportunities at victory ebb away. Bad play? No justification to televise that. No one wants to see bad golf anywhere other than a viewer-controlled YouTube video. Subject us to hours on end, and we’ll turn our attention elsewhere.

Why might the amateurs stay? Some would point to the origin of the event, as the Bing Crosby clambake. That event went through an evolution, from a few friends in the California desert to a move to the coast, to a short stay in North Carolina (without the PGA Tour, of course) when AT&T took over the title on tour. It’s the last event that folks from past generations associate with a celebrity host (not even the Hope is remembered thus); not the Genesis (Glen Campbell), nor the American Express (Bob Hope), nor the Farmers (Andy Williams), nor the Honda (Jackie Gleason) have had that staying power.

The AT&T has an opportunity to re-imagine its event. Fingers and toes are crossed that it makes the bold decision to eliminate the Am portion of the event for good. The courses of the Monterey Peninsula tell a wonderful story.

Return the Monterey Peninsula Shore Course to the rotation next year, add even more professionals, and let the layouts be the focus of the telecast.

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Ronald Montesano writes for GolfWRX.com from western New York. He dabbles in coaching golf and teaching Spanish, in addition to scribbling columns on all aspects of golf, from apparel to architecture, from equipment to travel. Follow Ronald on Twitter at @buffalogolfer.

21 Comments

21 Comments

  1. Will Skeat

    Jul 8, 2021 at 8:45 pm

    Ron,, you should stick to writing about things you can comprehend – like snow. Read the following, and learn:

    http://willotheglenongolf.blogspot.com/2021/02/if-you-are-going-to-gripe-about-pebble.html

  2. Pingback: Morning 9: Give Berger his due | Willie Mack III’s story | The case for the AT&T No-Am – GolfWRX

  3. Will

    Feb 16, 2021 at 8:38 am

    Cant agree more on the amateur subject. This was the first AT&T I’ve watched in years due to the pure golf offered. If I want to see bad golf and general buffoonery, there’s plenty of places to do that.

  4. Henny Bogan

    Feb 16, 2021 at 8:05 am

    I noticed several typos in this article.Perhaps it was not Ronald´s fault but someone needs to correct them. It´s difficult to read a critique with such unforced errors.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Feb 16, 2021 at 8:41 am

      I’d love for you to list them. I went over it with a loose-toothed comb and found the missing “S” (the one that is on my red and blue superhero suit.)

  5. T

    Feb 16, 2021 at 7:24 am

    It’s one event a year that has celebrities in rotation. Is it silly? Sure, sometimes. But other times it’s good entertainment. Take away the celebrities and it’s just another event like any other. It also raises an absurd amount of money for charity, but you didn’t bother mention that. If you don’t like it, there’s a bunch of other things on TV to watch that week. I think the celebrities potentially bring a lot more people into the game who might not ever golf before. What I do think they need to get rid of are the corporate CEO’s and other wealthy people who buy their way in just cause they can. I enjoy seeing Bill Murray, but I couldn’t care less about seeing some random business mega millionaire chop it around. In my opinion, keep the celebrities, keep raising money for charity, but stop with the random wealthy people nobody knows about, stick to actual celebs only.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Feb 16, 2021 at 8:45 am

      I appreciate this comment. I still disagree with its premise, but it is well-laid out. I like watching Bill Murray act; perhaps Bill would enjoy watching me teach (what I do best.) I know that there are celebrity-only events that are televised. Problem is, those are based on skill. It’s ironic that the one that involves professionals, is the one with the greatest amount of distractions.

      I suspect that the fans in attendance do their best to egg the entertainers on, and they respond, and hold up play, and donkey’s out the door.

  6. Megakarl99

    Feb 16, 2021 at 7:24 am

    I enjoy watching less skilled players play if they’re entertaining. Bill Murray comes to mind. The match with Peyton and Brady was one of the most entertaining golf broadcasts I saw in 2020 (though I admittedly was jonesing at that point). There’s a relatability to seeing a botched shot and a funny, honest reaction. There’s a REAL enjoyment at watching someone who’s been struggling hit a great shot and owning it a la Brady’s epic hole-out.

    Pro-ams could be a lot of fun if they changed the presentation. The current formula isn’t working. The LPGA pro am event a few weeks back was a disaster. Get the right people in the mix, mix them up and make them an added value, not an obstruction

    • Ronald Montesano

      Feb 16, 2021 at 8:48 am

      You’ve nailed it! The hot mess that Pro-Ams have devolved into, needs retooling. I propose the idea of a celebrity playing specific holes in the round, but not all of them. The celeb and the pro know precisely which hole it will be (like the par three holes and a couple of the scenic ones: six in total) The rest of the time, they stroll the fairways and chat up the fans. If amateurs want to compete, the USGA, state and local associations have events. If celeb amateurs want to compete, the celeb tour has events.

      People are afraid of letting go of something that their grandparents and parents and greats loved, and something that might have gotten them into the game. I loved the click-clack of metal spikes, but I don’t miss them.

  7. Christian Rossi

    Feb 15, 2021 at 2:15 pm

    Celebrity amateurs to be scratch or better only.
    No more over sixty and people who tooks three hybrids to get to a green.
    That would be a good Pro-Am otherwise drop them definitely.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Feb 15, 2021 at 9:11 pm

      I don’t dislike this idea. There would always be clowns who claim a lower handicap, just to get in. There could be a trial by shame on the 7th: miss the green and you’re out.

  8. Garrett

    Feb 15, 2021 at 12:08 pm

    Here’s another vote to get rid of the amateurs. Get rid of em!! Do that garbage somewhere less, I don’t know, Pebble Beachey….

    • Ronald Montesano

      Feb 15, 2021 at 12:33 pm

      I actually think that the amateurs would work splendidly at the Waste Management event. It’s already a wild child, so why not take it to the extreme and bring in all the rowdy friends? Can you imagine Bill Murray and the Scottsdale crowd on the 16th hole?

    • Get Good Garrett

      Feb 15, 2021 at 2:22 pm

      Garrett stopped in, between rounds of 113, 118 and a personal best 107, to comment.

  9. g daddy

    Feb 15, 2021 at 11:52 am

    You forgot about JT hosting the Las Vegas event. LOL

    It was an excellent tournament, the greens for whatever reason, we’re especially difficult on the short putts. Don’t think I’ve ever seen pros miss so many short ones – except maybe in a dried out US Open.

    Didn’t miss the celebs at all, except Bill Murray. Can’t say that I would want them to go away, it’s sort of the spirit of the tournament. If the networks could just avoid showing them so much and avoid the dumb interviews.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Feb 15, 2021 at 12:34 pm

      I don’t think that they can avoid showing them so much, and they can’t belittle them, and they have to stroke their egos by interviewing them about their latest project.

  10. David Landig

    Feb 15, 2021 at 10:18 am

    Best Pebble Beach Pro-Am to date. Didn’t miss watching the CEO/celebrity hacks take up the camera time one bit!

  11. T Lo

    Feb 15, 2021 at 10:10 am

    Zip about Spieth blowing another 54 lead??

    • Ronald Montesano

      Feb 15, 2021 at 12:35 pm

      Don’t beat a man when he’s down. The next time I mention Spieth, it will be for a win.

    • Ronald Montesano

      Feb 15, 2021 at 12:37 pm

      It was like watching Winged Foot at the September Open, and Augusta National at the November Masters. Zero obstruction, pure golf course, no fan interference/assistance. So good.

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Morning 9: Tiger confirms playing schedule | Player: This caused Tiger’s downfall

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By Ben Alberstadt with Gianni Magliocco.

For comments: [email protected]

Good Thursday morning, golf fans, as day one of the CJ Cup Byron Nelson gets underway.

1. Woods confirms he plans to play 1x monthly, remaining 3 majors

ESPN report…”Woods, appearing on the “Today” show Wednesday morning, said he is still following the calendar he mapped out before the season began. But physical limitations continue to give the 15-time major winner pause.”

  • “He completed the Masters last month but requires a “cold plunge every day, religiously” to get his body going and was “extremely sore” when he left Augusta National. Woods shot a 16-over 304 at the Masters and finished last among the 60 golfers who made the 36-hole cut.”
  • “I have basically the next three months — three majors — and hopefully that works out,” said Woods, who last won a major in 2019.
  • “Up next is the PGA Championship at Valhalla in two weeks. The U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 begins June 13, and the Open Championship at Royal Troon in Scotland begins July 18. Woods has not played all four majors in a year since 2019.”
Full piece.

2. Tiger on origin of red-and-black Sunday outfit

Ben Morse for CNN…”…speaking on Tuesday’s edition of ‘The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon,’ the 48-year-old said his mother Kultida was key to him wearing the now-iconic red and black combination.”

  • “My mom thought, being a Capricorn, that [red] was my power color, or some BS thing like that, so I end up wearing red and end up winning some golf tournaments,” the 15-time major winner told Fallon. “And then to spite her, I wore blue, and I did not win those tournaments. So Mom is always right.”
  • “Woods’ mother was clearly was onto something as her son would go onto win a record-equaling 82 PGA Tour tournaments.”
Full piece.

3. Gary Player’s take on Tiger’s downfall

Our Matt Vincenzi…”While speaking with KW Golf, golf legend Gary Player said that he believes swing coaches ruined the career of Tiger Woods.”

  • “The US Open at Pebble Beach, he won by 15 shots. You know what that’s like? It’s like running the 100 meters in seven seconds. The next week, he’s having a lesson from a man who, I don’t think, if he played in the Masters, could break 80.”
  • “And then he goes to another guy who couldn’t probably break 85 in the Masters with the pressure, or the British Open or the PGA on the final day. And he’s having lessons from them.”
  • “Why did Tiger do that? He was so good, but I understand he wanted to get better,” Player went on. “If he had just gone along and never changed, he would have won at least 22.. He would’ve gone down as the greatest athlete the world has ever seen.”
  • In 2008, Woods had won 14 majors and was 33 years old. It would take him eleven years to win his 15th at the 2019 Masters.
Full piece.

4. Open winner: I used to hate links golf

Peter Scrivener for the BBC…”However, he did recall his chastening links golf baptism at neighbouring Prestwick, which hosted the inaugural Open in 1860.”

  • “The first time I played links golf I hated it – it ate me to pieces,” said the 37-year-old, who lost all four of his matches as Europe thrashed the United States in the 2006 Palmer Cup.
  • “I kept trying to hit lob wedges around the greens and the weather was bad. I got whipped, lost all of my matches.”
Full piece.

5. Why Tiger’s daughter doesn’t like golf

Our Matt Vincenzi…”While Tiger Woods’ son, Charlie, has certainly inherited his father’s love for golf, his daughter, Sam, has not.”

  • “On Wednesday, Tiger made an appearance on The Today Show with Carson Daly and explained his daughter’s relationship with golf.”
  • “Golf has negative connotations for her. When she was growing up, golf took daddy away from her. I had to pack, I had to leave, and I was gone for weeks. So, there were negative connotations to it.
  • “We developed our own relationship and our own rapport outside of golf. We do things that doesn’t involve golf. Meanwhile, my son and I, everything we do is golf related.”
Full piece.

6. Spieth hits ‘reset button’

Mark Schlabach for ESPN…”PGA Tour star Jordan Spieth isn’t happy that he’s not playing as well as his longtime friend Scottie Scheffler, but he’s hoping to use the world No. 1 golfer’s success as inspiration.”

  • “Spieth, a three-time major championship winner, said he used last week as a reset after a so-so start to the 2024 season. He has three top-10 finishes in 10 starts but had a disqualification and three missed cuts, including at The Players and Masters, in his past seven.”
  • “He is hoping to turn things around, starting at The CJ Cup Bryon Nelson, which tees off Thursday at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas.”
  • “I think I kind of wanted to hit the reset button this last week and I took more days off than I usually do,” Spieth told reporters Wednesday. “Got a little burned out trying to find stuff. I wanted to take some time off, clear my mind, and then get back to it.
  • “… Kind of looking at this as kind of a restart. I haven’t had the year I wanted to have after getting off to a pretty optimistic start in Hawaii. I feel really good about the work I put in since the weekend into the few days this week, so I believe that I’m really close to some great things.”
Full piece.

7. Photos from the CJ Cup Byron Nelson

  • Check out all of our galleries from this week’s event!
Full Piece.
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Tour Photo Galleries

Photos from the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

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GolfWRX is on site this week in McKinney, Texas, at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson (FKA the AT&T Byron Nelson).

Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Jason Day ended a five-year winless streak. J-Day is in the field again, as are Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris.

We have our usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums for your perusal. As always, we’ll continue to add links to additional albums as they make their way to us from the Lone Star State.

Check out links to all our photos below.

General Albums

WITB Albums

Pullout Albums

See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.

 

 

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Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine

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As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson. 

Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.

TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.

The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.

There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris. 

Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson

  • 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
  • 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
  • 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
  • 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
  • 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
  • 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
  • 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
  • 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)

Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.

Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.

Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.12)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
  3. Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
  4. Ryan Moore (+0.98)
  5. Ben Martin (0.80)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.

Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Peter Kuest (+0.93)
  2. Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
  3. Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
  5. Kevin Tway (+0.74)

Birdie or Better %

There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.

Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Wesley Bryan (31%)
  2. Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
  3. Peter Kuest (25.9%)
  4. Matti Schmid (25.7%
  5. Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.

Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
  2. Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
  3. Callum Tarren (+0.86)
  4. Harry Hall (+0.81)
  5. Nick Hardy (+0.69)

Course History

This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.

Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:

  1. Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
  2. K.H. Lee (+2.59)
  3. Seamus Power (+1.84)
  4. Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
  5. Adam Scott (+1.72)

CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).

  1. Alex Noren
  2. Adam Scott
  3. Keith Mitchell
  4. Si Woo Kim
  5. Stephen Jaeger
  6. Jordan Spieth
  7. Jhonnatan Vegas
  8. Nate Lashley
  9. Brice Garnett
  10. Tom Hoge

2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks

Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)

Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.

An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.

Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.

An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.

Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.

In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.

Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.

Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)

After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.

Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.

In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.

Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.

Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)

Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.

At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.

2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.

Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)

Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.

This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.

Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.

C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)

Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.

Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.

Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.

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