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A Quick Nine: Q&A with Robert Trent Jones Jr.

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If there is a Royal Family of Golf Architecture, it is surely the Jones clan. Robert Trent Jones Jr. has amassed a portfolio that is a match for any designer in history, including his Hall of Fame father and brother. He is a living history of modern golf with the span of his lifetime ranging from Bobby Jones to Rory McIlroy. Artist, scholar, poet, gentleman… RTJ2 is all of these and more.

In this edition of A Quick Nine, Jones talks about his special relationship with the Masters, the 2015 U.S. Open at Chambers Bay, and his no-holds-barred take on the golf courses of Jack Nicklaus and other players-turned-designer. (Note: this Q&A has been lightly edited for brevity and style).

WRX: It’s Masters Week. Why is it so special? And will you be there?

Robert Trent Jones, Jr.: Would you miss church on Easter Sunday? I’ll be there. For me it’s a special homecoming with friends from all over the golf world. I’ve been there with my dad, and I have memories of him and my mother and my family in the in the 60’s and 70’s when we all went together. Its just the place to be; it’s a great gathering, like going to Scarborough Fair…it’s the celebration of spring. It’s like the Easter of the golf world, and very often the tournament takes place on Easter weekend. We’re finally out of our homes in the Northern parts of our country and when the Masters is televised, it’s a celebration of Spring and our great game.

WRX: How did your father Robert Trent Jones make Augusta National what it is today?

RTJ2: Well, Bobby Jones together with Alister MacKenzie, the great golf architect of the 20s and early 30s, designed the original Augusta National Golf Course in what was a lovely, heavily rolling field with very strong contours, and down along Rae’s Creek there were lots of lovely trees there since it was tree nursery at one time. The tournament was played starting in the early 30s, but some things changed in the game. Gene Sarazen invented the sand wedge, (he also holed out on No. 15 in 1935 for double eagle, the “Shot Heard ‘Round the World”) and so these fierce beautiful bunkers that MacKenzie built had less significance and were not as fearsome. After World War II there had been a long hiatus in advance of the game; from the beginning of the Great Depression through World War II nothing much happened in terms of course design… in fact many courses went out of business. So when Augusta National came back to its tournament Bobby Jones invited my father, who was then a young golf architect of some note, to help.

My father said, “Look, you have a lot of bunkers but they are no longer fearsome.” So he said, “Let’s put ponds in so that if your ball lands in a pond it’s clear that it’s going to be a hazard, lost ball, lost stroke.” So Bobby Jones agreed to that and he put the pond in on No. 11 on the left hand side of the green. No. 15 already had a small pond so one that was enlarged, and at No. 16 he completely changed the hole. It’s now one of the most beautiful holes in golf; it used to run perpendicular to the creek and now you hit toward the pond. So that’s what he did; he added strength back to the course and added beauty.

Bobby Jones used to say, “When your ball ends up in one of our bunkers at Augusta it’s like getting into a car crash. But if you go into one of the ponds it’s more like an airplane crash because you can recover from a car crash but never from an airplane crash.” When you think about the Masters, they say the tournament really starts on the back nine on Sunday, meaning that you have to deal with all of those hazards; it’s kind of an obstacle course and when you are fighting for the championship anything can happen. And that’s the beauty and the drama that we always love to watch. My father did that.

WRX: Do you think the tournament is diminished without Tiger Woods being there?

RTJ2: Well, no because it’s an invitational tournament unlike the [U.S.] Open where all participants must qualify. Tiger is always invited to play as a former champion as was Hogan, Snead, Palmer and Nicklaus. But at some point they say that they can’t make it for whatever reason that they have and in this case Tiger’s demise has been somewhat unexpected and much earlier in his career than the others due to his back surgery and all sorts of other physical ailments. It’s sad and we’ll miss him, but there will be new champions to usher in and we’ll cheer them. The competition will be tight and it will be interesting, but we’ll have many more glories to enjoy. There’s a lot going on in the golf world and the younger players are shooting phenomenal numbers now. I think I’ve seen more 60s and 59s than I ever expected. But the architects are on defense and you have to think of ways to defeat (the players), but also make sure that the game is playable for everybody else … we have to make more golf courses that are enjoyable for the tourists rather than all of the public and private courses that try to mimic Augusta National, because it’s too expensive to maintain and too hard to play. So the architecture world should want to take note of these great cathedrals of golf, but not necessarily copy them.

WRX: You have described Chambers Bay (site of the 2015 U.S. Open) as a “laboratory on how to protect par against the modern player.” Did you expect the course to generate such controversy? And are you tired of talking about it?

RTJ2: Well, I never get tired of talking about Chambers Bay! No, I didn’t expect the controversy to get to the crescendo that it did during the championship itself, but I don’t think it had to do with the design; I think it had to do with the conditioning of the course in that particular week. It was designed to play very long, very wide open, no vertical hazards like Augusta (meaning no trees) and no horizontal hazards like Augusta (meaning no water), none at all. So how do we defend against the greatest players in the world during an Open championship? Well, we have wide open, fast running contours. Even the tees were undulating … the fairways had countours, and of course the greens had contours and the whole thing is covered in fescue grasses. Fescue is a very interesting grass; it’s kind of slippery and it’s a grass that comes from Northern Europe where links courses are predominant. It’s different that what the players normally see on tour, where they can throw darts into these bent grass greens were the ball sticks when it lands. At Chambers the name of the game isn’t how far you can hit it, it’s how far you hit it and then control it because it could roll on the ground for prodigious distances and roll into a bunker or a bad lie or an awkward angle for the approach shot. And the same thing was true on the greens. The greens were like pool tables; you could use ‘cushions’ to bank a shot off.

It’s a different sort of game. It’s not target or artillery golf like you see at Augusta National, and these player aren’t used to that and we wanted to get into their minds. If we are in their minds, we are in their backswing and that’s what happened. The other good thing about Chambers Bay is that it’s a public course owned by the community. At the end of the day the championship has come and gone, but people are playing there every day and so it has to be a fun golf course, so the width and the lack of hazards make it a fun experience if you play it from the forward tees. It’s a hard thing to do, to be all things to all people, but I think that but I think we achieved that. The hunt on Sunday afternoon in 2015 was like the hunt at a Masters. There were six people who came to the 10th tee with a chance to win the championship and we you know the drama that ensued. That’s the success of a championship course; a national championship where the players really hit their stride at the end of the tournament.

WRX: What is your favorite golf course?

RTJ2: I’ve been asked that many times and my answer is always, “The next one I either play or design” (laughs). When you are involved in a project and you’re thinking about it all the time and all the details of it … you get excited. And when you’re playing a golf course, it captures your imagination. If you are a skilled shot maker it gives you so many options and choices, then you are engaged with the course. For me, the so-called “Golden Era” of golf was a wonderful time. It was also the same time that the predominant cars were Duesenbergs or Model T’s; and we’re now in the Tesla, Maserati and Porsche era. A lot of things have changed in car world, and they have in the golf world too over a 100-year period. I think we are in our own new Golden Era, maybe a Platinum Era of golf architecture. Many people are doing wonderful golf courses here and there. What I get concerned about is that we’re also in an era where so many people think they are course designers — that anybody can hire anybody and they’ll get a good golf course — and that’s not true. You have to pay a lot of time and attention to each project and for the owners, they have to be in tune and engaged and hopefully they love golfers and love the game. 

WRX: There are many former great players who became course designers. Do you think there is one of them that can be called a superior golf course architect?

RTJ2: There are very few, and the most honest ones among them admit that. You think of Bobby Jones, the great player working with Mackenzie and then my father. I think you get the best courses from a collaboration, a Yin and Yang where the designer has creativity and an understanding of the game. Because they are proficient players themselves, they will propose a concept and then the expert player such as Bobby Jones hits shots into a shaped green and says, “Hey, can we move that bunker a little bit farther right, I need a little more entrance.” That’s what results in a fine-tuned creation over time.

Even after the course is built and finished, it can be remodeled or adjusted to change the playing characteristics, but most players are about offense. You wouldn’t ask Barry Bonds to be a hitting coach for a pitcher; the pitcher has different skills so it’s not going to translate. That’s true in golf architecture, too. Players tend to be all about attack and score, and golf course architects tend to be more like goalies on soccer or hockey. We are on defense and the players are trying to beat us to the net. But we ultimately want them to use their skill and creativity to score. Are there some players who have made the transition? There are some (former PGA Tour great) Mike Souchak was one, but it’s rare. Those that I think of that have done well have paired with other good golf architects, like [Ben] Crenshaw and [Bill] Coore. I paired with Tom Watson and Sandy Tatum for Spanish Bay. Those are great collaborations. Sometimes they come together for a one special course at a specific location like Pebble Beach. Other time, they make an ongoing business out of the collaboration. But Jack Nicklaus, and he’s a personal friend of mine, he changed golf architecture into big business. It certainly helped the poor struggling artist like me get a little higher fee out of it, but it also became a little bit like a Four Seasons Hotel. You know that when you go there you are going to get a perfect pillow, the colors are going to be pleasant and so on. There’s a certain predictability in the work.

If you’ve played one Jack Nicklaus course you’ve probably played many of them in the sense that he favors kind of small greens, small targets, a little bailout on the right because he hit high fades, and so forth. That’s not to say that they weren’t proficient; they were very well built and he had a good team that helped him. But he came on the scene and other golf professionals tried to copy him, even the great ones like Arnold Palmer. And you’re not going to hear too much about great Arnold Palmer golf courses or Gary Player golf courses. They’re OK, but they’re not in the nature of high art, such as a Monet or a Rembrandt.

WRX: Isn’t some of that on the owners who play a Nicklaus course in France and want to build one in Venezuela to be just like it?

RTJ2: Yes, some of that is on the owners who want what we call “production” golf architecture. Jack Nicklaus had a great team of people who are very busy because there’s only one Jack Nicklaus, and he and his team would work hard in Florida and they would send plans from Florida to South Korea. Well, Florida is flat and South Korea is mountainous, so it doesn’t always fit the landscape. That’s “production” design; it’s not necessarily out of the earth, it’s imposed on the earth. I think the best golf courses are drawn out of the earth. Now, we are in the age of naturalism where everything is about keeping it natural. When you have great land, especially great land that meets the sea, of course you’re going to get excited for the visual. And if you have sand [as a base] that’s even better because you can grow fescue grasses and the sand allows for perfect draining that leads to a firm playing surface. But those kinds of sites are hard to come by, and when you have them it should be collaboration between a loving owner and a very skillful architect and perhaps a player or even a journalist to serve as a critic. At the end of the day, the composition has to hold together like music, more like jazz music because you can riff a little bit and it still holds together.

WRX: Name the three other players in your all-time dream foursome?

RTJ2: Wow, I’ve never been asked that question. Id like to play with people who are sociable. Skilled players like Hogan, they’re pretty quiet. He didn’t talk much other than, “You’re away” (laughs). I have played a lot of golf with Tom Watson, who I find to be very intellectual and fun to play with and a great competitor. He has the eyes of an eagle. He can see the line of a put from way across the green and it was always amazing to me how many long putts he made. He would be in the group. If could get into the time machine, I’d like to play with Bobby Jones because I have a similar name and because he’s so lionized not only for his skill as a great player but for Augusta and working with my Dad. And I would like to play with A.W. Tillinghast because he’s my favorite architect. A lot of people don’t know that after (architect George) Crump died while doing his Pine Valley creation, Tillinghast came and helped finish those holes that weren’t yet finished, the four holes that were left to be built. I grew up on Tillinghast-type courses and I’m a member of one now, San Francisco Golf Club. So that’s my foursome. I’m not sure they’d want to play with me because I’m not as good as them but I sure would enjoy it (laughs)!

WRX: If you were the King of Golf for a day, what would you do?

RTJ2: The first change would be to simplify the rules of golf, which the USGA and the R&A are doing, so that the rulebook doesn’t look like a legal treatise. The rules are written for competition, and trying to cover every possible happening in golf is impossible. So I’d like to simplify the rules and speed up the game. I’m not personally in favor of bifurcation; different rues for pros and amateurs. I’m a traditionalist in that sense. That’s the way it’s been for a long long time. You have to understand that the professional tour is like an elite labor union. They are paid to do what they do and they want definitive rules because there’s a lot of money at stake. And they should know the rules; they are in fact professionals and they shouldn’t make mistakes like what Dustin Johnson made at the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits or the thing that just happened with Lexi Thompson. But for minor situations, they should just play on. I remember Harry Bradshaw, he found his ball in the 1948 British Open and it was in part of a broken whiskey bottle and he just played it, glass and all. That’s the nature of the game…hit it, go find it and hit it again. If you just do that you can get around a course in 3-3.5 hours. But if you look over every shot and keep thinking about the rules, it’s going to add another hour and it’s slower for everyone. Maybe we can get people to play faster if you give them a time card when they go out and if they finish in 3.5 hours they get a free drink at the bar…and if they finish in four, maybe some peanuts.

I’d also like to see courses be a little more “rough and ready,” less perfectly maintained so that the cost of maintenance would go down, which would make the cost of playing thee game go down. The impact of fertilizers and the like would be less impactful. And water would be conserved, all of which we did at Chambers Bay. Frugal, fun, interesting, challenging, but not overly hard to play. It should feel like you can’t wait to get to the next tee box so you can try your skill and luck again. Not overwhelming, and not underwhelming. From the architectural sense, the suit should fit the body it’s cut for. And in the game itself, I think the pros take too much time preparing for a shot and that translates to the youth. And finally, we want to see more caddy programs. Youth On Course is a program initiated by the Northern California Golf Association where they pay clubs to let kids come out after school and play their course when there’s nobody on their private course. That’s very important for the future of the game. We gotta get them away from their cellphones and PlayStations and enjoying themselves on the course, and the only way to do that is to make it accessible because kids have the time but they don’t have the money.

WRX: At the 19th Hole: Beer, Wine, Whiskey or a Martini?

RTJ2: All of the above, but not all at once (laughs)! No, I prefer wine so for me it would be a buttery Chardonnay, a Malbec or a Pinot Noir. I guess it’s because I live in wine country in California. But what I really enjoy is the camaraderie and talking over the round afterwards with my fellow players.

WRX: Would you rather win an Oscar, a Nobel, the Lottery or the Grand Slam?

RTJ2: You can drop the last one because I believe money is overrated. Many rich people that I know are unhappy people and sadly money doesn’t solve their pursuit of happiness. But all of the rest are worthy, extraordinary accomplishments by well-deserving recipients. For me personally, I would prefer a Nobel prize. If I had done something that advanced humanity — or something in the science arena, like say discovering how we cure poa annua from overcoming fescue, or in the negotiating area, like where we assisted Corazon Aquino to transfer power from Ferdinand Marcos in the Philippines so the people could enjoy peace in their country — well, that would be as important as any other accomplishment. And the fact is that I have worked on both of those things in my private life. So I think that Nobel Prize would be something that would be wonderful.

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Williams has a reputation as a savvy broadcaster, and as an incisive interviewer and writer. An avid golfer himself, Williams has covered the game of golf and the golf lifestyle including courses, restaurants, travel and sports marketing for publications all over the world. He is currently working with a wide range of outlets in traditional and electronic media, and has produced and hosted “Sticks and Stones” on the Fox Radio network, a critically acclaimed show that combined coverage of the golf world with interviews of the Washington power elite. His work on Newschannel8’s “Capital Golf Weekly” and “SportsTalk” have established him as one of the area’s most trusted sources for golf reporting. Williams has also made numerous radio appearances on “The John Thompson Show,” and a host of other local productions. He is a sought-after speaker and panel moderator, he has recently launched a new partnership with The O Team to create original golf-themed programming and events. Williams is a member of the United States Golf Association and the Golf Writers Association of America.

5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. Ron

    Apr 13, 2017 at 10:49 pm

    seems like these questions were more like softball, lob-it-over-the-plate style.
    I’ve met RTJ in passing and he seems a bit “all about him”.

    Golf channel did a piece on him and his brother around the 2015 US Open timeframe. here is a related article.

    http://www.golf.com/tour-and-news/history-rees-jones-vs-robert-trent-jones-jr-feud

  2. XLee2000

    Apr 11, 2017 at 2:40 pm

    Wow…very impressed by how well-spoken he is as well as how current he seems to be with things. Not a knock on his age…it’s just that I’ve seen older folks tend to stay within an intellectual bubble sometimes. I applaud his last answer btw regarding the Noble Prize…making the world a better place should always be the desired legacy of man.

  3. Jack Nash

    Apr 10, 2017 at 11:50 am

    I posted on the Bubba appoligizing to the reporter page. I mentioned something about reporters not appoligizing about stupid questions they ask. Well, lookie here, we have one. RTJ2 is asked about Tiger Woods not being at the Tournament. This article is about the Jones family, their history, and course design. Why the question about Woods? This is exactly why I stated that in his piece Bubba needant appoligize.

  4. DAniel

    Apr 8, 2017 at 10:13 pm

    Thoroughly enjoyed reading this article. More like this please.

  5. Ronald Montesano

    Apr 8, 2017 at 10:09 pm

    I don’t think that the last Q/A makes sense. Other than that, very enjoyable interview. We love his Seneca Hickory Stick course here in western New York.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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