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The 7 most underrated players at the BMW Championship

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After a long week off, the FedExCup Playoffs are back for the BMW Championship, which means one thing for fans: time to make some money playing DraftKings Fantasy golf.

As the stakes continue to get higher in the Playoffs, drawing closer to the $10 million payout, so do the stakes for the DraftKings PGA contests. This week, it’s a $700K contest with $100,000 going to the winner.

For a chance to win, ENTER HERE!

To help you select your roster and maximize your chance at winning big money, I’ll give you my underrated players for this week, who should each return great fantasy value.

Check out my picks below, and don’t forget to ENTER HERE to get in on the action!

The Course

ConwayFarmsGolfClub

www.conwayfarmsgolfclub.org

The BMW Championship will be hosted at Conway Farms Golf Club, located in Lake Forest, Illinois, which measures almost 7,200 yards in length and plays to a par-71. Opened in 1991 and designed by Tom Fazio, Conway Farms is considered a tribute to Scottish links-style golf.

Given the presence of the top-70 golfers in the world at the BMW Championship, with no 36-hole cut, it will inevitably take somewhere between 15- and 20-under to win at this track, depending on weather conditions — particularly, the intensity of the wind or lack thereof. As the FedExCup Playoffs steamroll toward the Tour Championship by Coca-Cola, there is no time like the present to step on the proverbial gas pedal.

Now, let’s get to my picks:

My 7 Underrated Players

Pat Perez ($7,200)

  • FedExCup Ranking — 43rd
  • All-Around Ranking — 497 (23rd)
  • Ball Striking — 123 (52nd)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting — 0.315 (39th)

Perez’s statistics, specifically, his All-Around Ranking, demonstrate that throughout the current season he has been consistently solid in all aspects of his game. His finish (T29) at the Deutsche Bank Championship was respectable and squarely set Perez up to compete for a spot in the Tour Championship.

Such a possibility is noteworthy, given that Perez has never qualified for that particular event. As a former winner on the PGA Tour, Perez has the game to put himself in position to win. Without the customary 36-hole cut and with 11 top-25 finishes this year, Perez is a worthwhile investment as he has everything to gain and little, if anything, to lose in Illinois.

Jimmy Walker ($7,400)

  • FedExCup Ranking — 11th
  • All-Around Ranking — 541 (34th)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting — 0.781 (1st)
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders — 50 percent (T-11th)

When the BMW Championship was last played at Conway Farms, Walker finished T11. After having zero wins up to and including in 2013, Walker has since peeled off five wins in the last two PGA Tour seasons.

Admittedly, Walker missed the cut at the Deutsche Bank Championship and has not overall finished this year, at this point, as strongly as he started it. Walker remains, however, the best putter on the PGA Tour this season. There is little doubt Walker can score, compete and win, despite his recent play; $7,400 is a bargain and while redundant, he has nothing to lose, everything to gain by getting after it and into the top-5 of the FedExCup Rankings.

Kevin Chappell ($7,500)

  • FedExCup Ranking — 57th
  • All-Around Ranking — 637 (T57th)
  • Ball Striking — 137 (T62nd)
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders — 43.51 percent (68th)

Chappell’s statistics this season are just above average, but he is, however, a capable well-rounded player trending up yet again in 2014-2015. Chappell finished T12 last week at the Deutsche Bank Championship, played at the BMW Championship in 2013, and has already compiled 10 top-25 finishes this year. He is threatening to have the best year overall (earnings-wise) of his career.

A career-altering week with a win, which is absolutely within the realm of possibility, would inevitably get Chappell to the Tour Championship. Chappell was the Jack Nicklaus Award winner as collegiate Player of the Year and Arnold Palmer Award winner as the D-I M-Golf champion in 2008. Chappell competing week-in and week-out and ultimately winning seems inevitable.

J.B. Holmes ($7,500) 

  • FedExCup Ranking — 19th
  • All-Around Ranking — 569 (38th)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green — 0.908 (17th)
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders — 47.27 percent (27th)

With two wins in his past two seasons on the PGA Tour, Holmes has arguably made the comeback that, at one point, seemed improbable. Since beating Jordan Spieth (as well as Johnson Wagner) at the Shell Houston Open in May, however, Holmes has failed to record a PGA Tour stroke play top-10. In short, Holmes is due for a strong finish and may need one to get to Atlanta.

Holmes’ statistics and FedExCup Ranking this season demonstrate solid, if not arguably spectacular, play in competition. If Holmes finds his touch and rhythm on the greens at Conway Farms, his length (310.5 yards/5th) in this bomb and gouge era is a considerable advantage. The upside for Holmes outweighs his minimal cost and makes him a viable mid-range addition this week.

Webb Simpson ($7,600) 

  • FedExCup Ranking — 42nd
  • All-Around Ranking — 462 (17th)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green — 1.423 (5th)
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders — 51.82 percent (4th)

Statistically speaking, Simpson appears worthy of consideration every week that he is competing this season on the PGA Tour. Apart from struggling in Strokes Gained: Putting in 2014-2015, Simpson has put up consistent and impressive numbers. He has also made 18 of 21 cuts, recorded 8 top-25 finishes, and accumulated over $2 million in earnings.

As a former major winner (2012 U.S. Open), and Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup member, Simpson’s professional pedigree remains undeniable. As the anchoring ban looms, Simpson is inevitably going to master the short stick, sooner rather than later. When he finds his putting groove this week, Simpson will again be ready to challenge for another win.

Keegan Bradley ($7,800)

  • FedExCup Ranking — 63rd
  • All-Around Ranking — 583 (40th)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green — 1.017 (15th)
  • Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders — 50 percent (T11th)

Despite recent history, Bradley’s talent, ability to score, and clutch play in his three PGA Tour wins has been evident. At 63rd in the FedExCup Rankings, Bradley has no choice but to go low this week in an effort to earn his spot at the Tour Championship. With everything to gain, Bradley is a steal this week at $7,800.

Hunter Mahan ($8,000)

  • FedExCup Ranking — 52nd
  • All-Around Ranking — 761 (95th)
  • Ball Striking — 185 (T-93rd)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting — .340 (33rd)

Since its introduction, Mahan has been the only player to compete in every FedExCup playoff event. That streak alone, and his play last week at the Deutsche Bank Championship are cause to put Mahan in this week’s lineup, despite his $8,000 price tag.

Mahan’s 2014-2015 season, when put under the microscope, suggests gambling on him this week. Highlighted by 7 top-25 finishes, Mahan has made 19 out of 23 cuts, $1.5 million in earnings, and ranks in the top 20 percent of all PGA Tour players in Strokes Gained: Putting this season. Keep in mind, Mahan finished T4 at Conway Farms in 2013 at this event.

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4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. David

    Sep 25, 2015 at 7:42 am

    Wait..you deleted my comment?

    I said…how can Reed be underrated when I thought he was top 5 in the world?

    Why delete it?

  2. Skratch

    Sep 16, 2015 at 1:29 pm

    And you two are? oh yeah, foot wedgers.

  3. ETW

    Sep 15, 2015 at 1:10 pm

    Except for Walker, the rest are duds

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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