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6 Picks to win the 2015 Greenbrier Classic

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We are right in between major championships on the schedule, with the sixth edition of the Greenbrier Classic this week.

But there’s still a lot of excitement for the event, and the DraftKings game obliges.

For this week’s Greenbrier Classic, DraftKings is offering up a $250,000 pot, with the winner netting a cool $100,000, second place garnering a hefty $10,000 and all top-10 finishers earning $1,000s!

Enter the $250K contest here!

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The top 18,230 finishers this week will earn money, and at the minuscule $3, YOU HAVE NO EXCUSE NOT TO ENTER!

Anyway, that’s all for the intro this week. Onto my analysis…

The Course

The Old White TPC has been the Greenbrier’s host ever since the tournament replaced the Buick Open on the schedule in 2010.

OldWhiteTPC

www.tpc.com

Sam Snead had an extremely long history at the Greenbrier, including stints as head pro and golf pro emeritus. Lee Trevino is the resort’s current golf pro emeritus, and the resort actually contains an underground bunker that the federal government called on the Greenbrier to construct during the height of the Cold War as a safe haven for leaders and officials from a nuclear holocaust.

But, back to the course. The Old White TPC is a 7,287-yard par-70 layout that was redesigned following the inaugural 2010 tournament when red numbers reigned all over the place.

The changes included a few hundred yards in added length and a narrowing of some fairways.

Despite that, the Old White TPC isn’t overly long and remains known for its generous fairways. The course is tree-lined though with juicy rough and menacing bunkersThe greens are large, too, which means fewer instances where scrambling is necessary. The putting surfaces contain pretty severe undulations as well.

Overall, the layout has tended to get the characterization of a track where driving accuracy holds little importance (fairways are too wide for the other obstacles to matter). The importance of short game play also has been said to be minimized here, while putting’s value rockets up.

I checked in on these assumptions by going to my sample of the top-15 finishers at the event the past four years (I excluded 2010 because the course played significantly different before the redesign).

What did I find?

Well, putting proved to be the paramount factor in contending at the Greenbrier. Approach play came in second, short game a distant third and good driving was least effective in contending at the Old White TPC.

As I said, this isn’t a long course, and honestly, the bomber advantage is hindered to a great degree here. The sample showed that accuracy is more important than length at this layout, and short hitters appeared almost as often as long hitters in the sample.

Overall, look for great putters and iron players when picking this week. Don’t pay driving distance any attention, but do steer toward the more accurate hitters.

Six-Man Roster (Last Week: 246.5 points, 99,712th of 110,646)

  • Webb Simpson — $11,800
  • Brendon Todd — $8,500
  • Cameron Tringale — $8,200
  • Rory Sabbatini — $8,200
  • Shawn Stefani — $7,000
  • Scott Piercy — $6,300

WebbSimpson

My top pick is pretty self-explanatory. Simpson absolutely adores this layout. In his four appearances at the Greenbrier since 2011, his finishes are T9, T7, T41, 3. His mediocre recent form doesn’t really matter, his record at this place is that good. His putter has been up and down this year, too, and he’s going through the valleys right now. A peak should be emerging soon, and the best bet is on a course where Simpson finds great comfort.

In his past four starts, Todd alternated missed cuts with top 20s. He’s not an easy read right now, and while he did T4 at the Greenbrier last year, that was in the midst of a monumental hot streak when he was contending everywhere. But, I really do like him this week. Todd is a fantastic putter, possesses a solid iron game and oozes accuracy off the tee. He has a limited playing record at this event, but that combination fits this course very well.

A lot of the reasoning with Simpson applies to Tringale. The 27-year-old Georgia Tech grad can’t say his game has flourished of late (one top-50 in his past five starts), but just like Simpson, Tringale boasts a great record at the Greenbrier. His list of finishes: T4, T23, T56, T4, CUT. And in 2015, Tringale has played extremely well at courses where his history is robust, with a T5 at the Shell Houston and a runner-up at the Zurich. I’m banking on him repeating that trend again at the Old White TPC.

Sabbatini has quietly put together a nice group of showings in the past month, with a T10-T30-T24 trio of finishes. He also had a T9 at the Greenbrier in 2013. I like the trends converging for Sabbatini this week.

A sleeper turned into an every week ace earlier this season, Stefani has fallen off people’s radars of late. And it hasn’t been something drastic that has triggered it — apparently T40-CUT in his past two starts (nothing catastrophic) proved enough to transport the attention somewhere else. Regardless, Stefani has truly been a stud this year, and it’s good to buy now when his stock is low for some reason. Add in the fact that his putting and approach play have been his strengths in 2015, and I have a tough time seeing him not tearing it up at the Old White TPC.

I’ve quietly felt for years that Piercy is one of the Tour’s most talented players. He could honestly win a major or two at some point, his highs are that good. That being said, his play of late has been a bloodbath, with a CUT-CUT-CUT-T43-WD-CUT slate in his past six starts. He just went on vacation, though, which means he’s rested. And Piercy is a guy who can pop a good performance out of nowhere (See: Any of his T5s in 2012 and 2013), which makes it less egregious to pick him during a slump. He also tends to heat up around this time of year, and the guy loves a good shootout, something the Greenbrier usually obliges. With all of that in mind, I’m taking the Piercy Plunge.

Random roster via two one non-golf fan (Last Week: 208 points, 106,335th of 110,646)

Well one of my two lads for this is in England, which meant this week was a solo effort.

Here was the ordering of his picks and why he chose each person…

Patrick Reed: He likes cheering for the bad guy. Interesting take.

Rory Sabbatini: He chose Sabbatini because it sounds like martini and he could really go for a drink right now. Peculiar time of day for that…also a nice accidental reference to this gem…oh, and we all know Sabbatini could fit under the bad guy distinction too.

Cameron Tringale: His last name is close to the word “triangle” and that is fun. Fair enough.

Fabian Gomez: His name is written in DraftKings as “F Gomez” and it sounds like someone really doesn’t like him (think about it).

Charles Howell III: Well, with the “III” on the end, it means he’s basically getting three players here, right?

Justin Thomas: The rookie looks entirely apathetic in his DraftKings picture, and my friend respected that. I’m glad he referenced that photo, I have before, and if you’re curious, go to DraftKings to look at it. This was Thomas’ old PGA Tour profile photo before it was changed (for good reason).

Alternate Six-Man Roster (Last Week: 395.5 points, 22,144th of 110,646, WON $5!!!)

  • Keegan Bradley — $11,300
  • Bill Haas — $10,500
  • Pat Perez — $8,700
  • Kevin Streelman — $7,100
  • Scott Brown — $6,200
  • Brian Stuard — $6,100

KeeganBradley

Bradley and Haas are my two aces for this week. Haas boasts a stellar record at this event, with two top-10s and four top-35s in four starts. Bradley’s results at this event aren’t as impressive but it adds up to three made cuts in three starts, including last year’s T4. I also think both possess good games for this course and have been trending in the right direction with their recent play.

Perez has been on an extended hot streak since March, placing among the top 30 in six consecutive starts before a poor weekend at Muirfield Village led to a T57. Nonetheless, Perez’s play has been excellent of late and his relative strength is his flatstick, which should suit him well at a layout where he placed T6 in 2013.

Streelman’s iron play has been extremely on point in 2015 and he keeps it in play very well off the tee in general. People may be down on him after he missed the cut in his Travelers title defense, but this is a very steady player and he looks primed for a rebound this week.

As for my final two picks, Brown and Stuard both burned it up in recent months. Brown has made 10 of his past 11 weekends and sprinkled in two top-15s, while Stuard advanced past the cut five of his past six tries. Both are decent fits for the course as well. I actually like Stuard even more because he has a T6 here in the past, and once he figures out his weekend woes of late, he will seriously contend for a title again soon.

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Kevin's fascination with the game goes back as long as he can remember. He has written about the sport on the junior, college and professional levels and hopes to cover its proceedings in some capacity for as long as possible. His main area of expertise is the PGA Tour, which is his primary focus for GolfWRX. Kevin is currently a student at Northwestern University, but he will be out into the workforce soon enough. You can find his golf tidbits and other sports-related babble on Twitter @KevinCasey19. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: September 2014

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