Opinion & Analysis

PGA Tour Rookies 2015: Who can make the biggest splash?

Published

9 years ago

Jan 13, 2015

The 2014 class of PGA Tour rookies were underwhelming to say the least. Chesson Hadley captured Rookie of the Year honors on the circuit, a distinction he achieved via a victory and four total top-10s.

Among the winners of the award since 2010, this campaign is easily the worst of the bunch. Jordan Spieth’s 2013 and Keegan Bradley’s 2011 speak for themselves. But despite zero wins in 2010, Rickie Fowler’s season was demonstrably better than Hadley’s 2014—courtesy of three top-threes and seven top-10s. John Huh’s 2012 mirrored the one-win, four top-10 showing of last year’s winner, but his 22-of-28 in made cuts far outpaces Hadley’s 13-of-29.

The rest of the rookie bunch in 2014 proved so thoroughly mediocre that the other two finalists (Brooks Koepka and Victor Dubuisson) were part-time PGA Tour players.

The 2014-2015 PGA Tour rookie class has the chance to cleanse the sins of its predecessor though. This group of maiden voyagers contains a boatload of high-potential performers in their initial Tour season.

Among the freshman pack, seven names in particular stick out. And we have predictions for all of them in 2015.

Yes, rookie seasons are technically underway, but the sample size is still quite small.

Much remains to be seen and here are our best guesses as to the progress of this most-talented set in the upcoming year.

Nick Taylor

Let’s start off with the only Tour rookie with a win in the wraparound portion of the 2014-2015 schedule.

Yes, Taylor secured a two-shot victory at the Sanderson Farms Championship in early November—a milestone win in a young career.

The 26-year-old’s name may be unfamiliar to most golf fans, but Taylor was once the World’s No. 1-ranked amateur. That was in 2009, only five years ago.

In the coming years, Taylor would try his hand on mini tours and the PGA Tour Canada circuit. In Canada he was fine, finishing in the top 30 on the money list each year from 2011-2013. Taylor was exempt on the Web.com Tour in 2014, and placed 69th on its money list. A trip to the Web.com Tour Finals got him his PGA Tour card.

A victory and former top-dog status seem to imply a prosperous beginning in the big leagues, especially with his high status on the PGA Tour tournament priority list (which means easy access to most events) via his spot in the winners’ category… except I’m more comfortable cooling off on the Taylor hype.

Even in his early seasons on far lesser circuits than the PGA Tour, his results weren’t overwhelming, and he didn’t tear it up on the Web.com Tour last season. The win this fall was nice and a legitimate great week of golf, but probably an outlier at this point. In four other PGA Tour events during the wraparound, Taylor made three cuts but never placed in the top 50.

With all of this, I feel Taylor will just fall into his fair share of valleys in the new calendar year. Taylor may be on his way to a lot of low finishes and missed cuts, but has the silver lining of one week of fantastic golf that sets his top-10 number at two. If it wasn’t for the victory, I would expect Taylor to struggle to keep his card.

Adam Hadwin

Another Canadian here, Hadwin’s name surfaced with an eye-opening T4 at the RBC Canadian Open in 2011, submerged with decent but non-promotion worthy play on the Web.com Tour and rocketed back up with a 2014 that placed him on top of the minor league circuit.

The 27-year-old won twice and top-tenned nine times on the Tour last year, a performance set that garnered him the top spot on the Web.com Tour’s final money list (regular season plus Finals events money). He’s claimed that maturity played a large role in his renaissance season, but such an intangible is notoriously difficult to evaluate.

Hadwin’s name fits in the neutral category—where the rookie season is neither an outright dud nor a star effort. His wraparound results resemble those of Taylor (minus the victory), which isn’t promising. But he was an excellent player on the Web.com Tour last year, something that Taylor can’t claim.

Hadwin is fully exempt, and I expect him to make more cuts than missed and dabble in top-10s and top-25s. Of this group, he may be the most innocuous in 2015.

Tony Finau

Despite Taylor’s victory, Finau was the PGA Tour’s rookie story of the fall.

I mean, it’s tough to match a former 17-year-old professional whose career went south before finally finding his groove with a terrific season seven years later. And the folklore of his prodigious length off the tee is acquiring a sizable audience of its own.

Finau’s hype has been warranted in a way with his fall start in the wraparound, a five-event opening that produced two top-10s and four top-25s. Of course the praise has also been overdone to a degree—these results are a nice small sample, but they don’t tell a long-term story yet (especially when you peer into the quality of the fields).

The results are unlikely to match the story then in 2015. Finau is first on the reshuffle (a ranking list of the Web.com Tour Finals graduates that determines the order the players are selected into fields), which bodes very well for his schedule. He also possesses a lot of power, game and confidence heading into the new year, and while those all should aid his progress in 2015, his golf is still somewhat raw and he’s still quite new to fighting high-level competition (last season was his maiden one on the Web.com Tour).

Finau’s off to an excellent start and his game shouldn’t drop too much, but I don’t expect him to approach the pace he set in the fall. His game won’t generally be this sharp, and the stiffer competition will further skew the results downward. There will be some good showings though, I believe at least one top-three, and combined with his results from the fall, it should make him a nominee for Rookie of the Year. Check out Brendan Steele’s and Chris Kirk’s numbers from their rookie 2011’s and that’s where I see Finau ending up (minus any wins).

The 25-year-old success story should be just fine in 2015, but it’ll be difficult to prolong the torrid stretch he produced in the fall.

Patrick Cantlay

This is stretching the definition of rookie in a conventional sense, but the PGA Tour still recognizes Cantlay as a newborn pup.

The UCLA man is indeed in his first season by Tour standards, but is by far the trickiest to project on this occasion.

For recollection, the former World No. 1 amateur came into professional life with plenty of hype in 2012, and played pretty well in making six cuts in seven PGA Tour events on sponsors exemptions.

But the following year on the Web.com Tour, Cantlay started struggling with a hairline fracture in his vertebrae in the summer and shut down his play completely in September in order to let the injury heal (it didn’t require surgery). And more or less, he has played very little since in battling this and a potentially separate back injury.

If completely healthy and in good standing to obtain a full-time slate of PGA Tour events, Cantlay would rocket near the top of the list here. His talent is that vast.

The 22-year-old played the final wraparound event of the fall, but we don’t know for sure that his injuries have disappeared or that they won’t recur again—let alone the rust factor. He’s also a lowly 45th on the reshuffle, making playing opportunities scarcer and subsequently more pressure packed.

He’ll likely play more than in the past two years (12.5 events per annum combined on the PGA and Web.com Tours), but all of the aforementioned issues prevent me from seeing much success for him as a rookie. I see another limited schedule where he can make cuts without too much issue, but top finishes will be be rare.

Unfortunately this will probably lead to Cantlay going to the Web.com Tour Finals to regain his PGA Tour card. The future beyond 2015 is still bright though.

Carlos Ortiz

He’s a hot name whose relationship with Lorena Ochoa seems to come up in every story—no matter how much he previously expounded upon it.

Save this minor inconvenience of the media glare, the last 12 months have been a stunning bunch from the Mexican-born Ortiz. In that span, he rocketed from a no-name to a Web.com Tour blitzer, capturing three victories and earning a battlefield promotion to the PGA Tour. The spotlight has been on him since.

Ortiz also nailed together a solid few results in his first events as a PGA Tour rookie: Four starts, four made cuts, two top-25s, one top-10.

But whatever his long-term future, I’m not too sanguine about his 2015.

If that sounds crazy, hear me out. Ortiz’ 2014 season, while highly impressive, is an anomaly in his so far young career. The young Mexican’s talent is no joke, but he hasn’t really had a way of putting it together in some time. His sophomore year at North Texas was a special season with three wins, a campaign he followed up with a less stellar junior year and an even drearier senior year where he wasn’t even the team’s best player!

Maybe he finally figured out how to administer his talent in 2014, you say? If so, it was sporadic. The PGA Tour fall seemed fine, and the February-May stretch with two wins and five top-10s on the Web.com Tour proved excellent. But then there was the June-September Web.com drought, where Ortiz sandwiched a win between seven missed cuts and two other non-top 25 showings.

Sporadic doesn’t work as well on the PGA Tour, especially if the moments of struggle occur early and often, which I believe they will for Ortiz in 2015. A series of harrowing results in those crucial first months of good PGA Tour fields can quickly destroy confidence. And at that point the damage to the mental game can be too strong for the talent to make much of a difference in the short term.

This I believe to be the difficult short term path for Ortiz. His schedule is set due to his fully exempt status, but his lack of consistency in using his talent will likely mean a lot more missed cuts and marginal performances than he wants. He’ll be back at Web.com Tour Finals next year, this time fighting to retain his card.

Blayne Barber

Barber has been no stranger to disqualification, but 2014 was (mostly) about his stellar golf game that netted him two victories and a top-10 showing on the Web.com Tour money list.

The Auburn grad proved his college All-American credentials with his master class in the minor leagues, and he’s started out his rookie year on the big Tour forcefully, with top-10s in his final two events of the fall.

Barber heads into 2015 eighth on the reshuffle list—not exactly Finau territory but in fine position to set up a healthy, full schedule if his results don’t tank in the opening months of the new year.

As for his taking advantage of this potentially packed slate, I’m pretty optimistic. He’s not a prodigal talent, but he’s also assimilated rapidly in Year One on the NGA and Web.com Tours. The hallmark of his game is his tee-to-green accuracy, a tribute that stands to prohibit the major valleys in play that a less refined rookie might find. And he’s accountable and mature, if that counts for anything.

He should make a substantial amount of his cuts and add a few more top-10s and a half-dozen or so top-25s before the year is out. I expect him to be a Rookie of the Year candidate, with his odds of actually winning not that high.

Justin Thomas

And finally, we have my pick for PGA Tour Rookie of the Year.

Surprising if you look at his physical characteristics: a non-descript PGA Tour profile photo and an average 5-foot, 10-inch 145-pound frame. Not surprising if you’ve actually followed his career.

The 21-year-old was one of the top amateurs in the country before college, and exceeded expectations at the University of Alabama. Thomas dominated his freshman season, winning four times and capturing honors as National Player of the Year (Nicklaus award). His sophomore campaign was a regression, but still sensational. And his year on the Web.com Tour was predictably brilliant, with a win, seven top-10s and a fifth-place finish on the regular season money list.

He’s the most talented American prospect since Jordan Spieth, and if Thomas were to look to Spieth’s rookie campaign (one-win, nine top-10s and 13 top-25s) as a template for his own maiden PGA Tour season, it wouldn’t be too aspirational.

Thomas’ game isn’t without its flaws—while he hits it long despite his physical build, he is quite inaccurate off the tee—but it is quite polished through years of competing and thriving against top competition.

And saying athletes are hard working at their sporting craft is clichéd, but the anecdote at the end here is ridiculous.

There’s the talent, the work ethic, the previous stellar results on all levels, I just don’t see a way that Thomas doesn’t come out firing as a rookie. I don’t anticipate his maiden season being as good as Spieth’s—maybe something a notch less—but it wouldn’t be shocking if he matched the Texan. And Thomas could easily win his first PGA Tour tournament.

At the very least, he will be the victor in the Rookie of the Year race.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla

Published

17 hours ago

May 13, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.

The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old.

Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades.

Valhalla Golf Club is a par-71 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event.

The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions.

Past Winners of the PGA Championship

2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Valhalla

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Shane Lowry (+1.25)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
Jordan Smith (+1.05)
Tom Hoge (+.96)
Corey Conners (+.94)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:

Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
Keith Mitchell (+.90)
Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
Ludvig Aberg (+.82)

Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs

Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:

Jon Rahm (+2.56)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
Shane Lowry (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses

Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
Xander Schauffele (+1.60)

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships

One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event.

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens

Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
Justin Rose (+0.93)
J.T. Poston (0.87)

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways

Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds:

Justin Thomas (+1.53)
Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
Rory McIlroy (+1.23)

2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%).

Brooks Koepka
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Shane Lowry
Alex Noren
Will Zalatoris
Cameron Young
Keith Mitchell
Hideki Matsuyama
Billy Horschel
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Adam Schenk
Chris Kirk
Sahith Theegala
Min Woo Lee
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas

2024 PGA Championship Picks

Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)

At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.

Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.

Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.

In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024.

Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)

Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.

At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.

Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.

Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.

Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)

There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.

Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.

Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.

Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.

Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)

I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.

Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.

Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.

Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 2

Published

5 days ago

May 9, 2024

Terry Koehler

In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.

At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.

It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.

And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.

I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.

But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.

If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.

To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.

There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.

Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.

The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.

First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.

And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”

So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

1 week ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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