Opinion & Analysis
With Tiger Woods, is it positive thinking or denial?
When great athletes struggle, they are almost always interviewed after their poor performances and their answers to the line of questioning that follows is predictable. They say things such as:
- “I’m getting close.”
- “I played well, just didn’t turn out my way.”
- “I just couldn’t get a good pitch to hit.”
- “My back has been tight, it should loosen up soon and I’ll be fine.”
- “I just need to get some more playing time under my belt.”
Blah, blah, blah, we say. Maybe, but maybe not.
Tiger Woods epitomizes this approach to interviews. The best player I’ve ever seen for his 12 years of dominance is obviously a shell of what he was in his great years. Yet when he’s interviewed, he NEVER thinks he is “that far off.”
Interesting.
On one hand, we could say it’s the same power of positive thinking that made him so great. On the other hand, might it simply be a case of denial? I’d like to get some unbiased opinions (I know that’s tough when we’re talking about Tiger) on what side of that debate you’re on.
For those of you old enough to remember Steve Carlton in his prime, you’ll agree he was one of the most dominant pitchers EVER. Flash forward to his last years with the Chicago White Sox and he was serving up blooper balls for lunch. Yet he still SWORE he could be great again.
Unfortunately, I’m also old enough to remember Willie Mays in his prime. Nobody better, maybe ever. Think about his days with the Mets when he was falling down missing curve balls by a foot. Now both Lefty and the Say Hey Kid were down the road age wise, but it didn’t seem to diminish their optimism — or their denial. I just can’t figure out if they were kidding us or kidding themselves.
I’m also not saying Tiger is done; I’m a huge fan of what he’s done for golf, and having had the opportunity to play with him once, of him as well. And I do think he will win again. Dominate, no. But win sometimes? Yes.
But for now, when Tiger claims he’s “close” is he simply refusing to allow any negative thought to enter his psyche or is he kidding himself? I think even ardent Tiger fans will agree that based on what we’ve seen this year (with the possible exception of Augusta National, where I think he could play well left-handed) he’s not really “close.” But this is Tiger Woods, a man who has more major championships than missed cuts!
If any player were ever to believe in himself to the point of possible denial, I for one am affording Tiger Woods that luxury.
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla
The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.
The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old.
Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades.
Valhalla Golf Club is a par-71 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event.
The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions. All of the top players will be here gunning for the glory of a major championship with the exception of
Past Winners of the PGA Championship
- 2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
- 2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
- 2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
- 2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
- 2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
- 2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
- 2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
- 2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
- 2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
- 2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Valhalla
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.
1. Strokes Gained: Approach
Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.
Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Shane Lowry (+1.25)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
- Jordan Smith (+1.05)
- Tom Hoge (+.96)
- Corey Conners (+.94)
2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
- Keith Mitchell (+.90)
- Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
- Ludvig Aberg (+.82)
Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs
Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship.
Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:
- Jon Rahm (+2.56)
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
- Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
- Shane Lowry (+1.57)
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses
Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.
Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
- Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
- Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
- Xander Schauffele (+1.60)
Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships
One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event.
Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
- Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
- Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
- Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
- Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)
Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens
Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:
- Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
- Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
- Justin Rose (+0.93)
- J.T. Poston (0.87)
Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways
Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.
Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds:
- Justin Thomas (+1.53)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
- Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
- Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
- Rory McIlroy (+1.23)
2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%).
- Brooks Koepka
- Xander Schauffele
- Rory McIlroy
- Scottie Scheffler
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Shane Lowry
- Alex Noren
- Will Zalatoris
- Cameron Young
- Keith Mitchell
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Billy Horschel
- Patrick Cantlay
- Viktor Hovland
- Adam Schenk
- Chris Kirk
- Sahith Theegala
- Min Woo Lee
- Joaquin Niemann
- Justin Thomas
2024 PGA Championship Picks
Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)
At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.
Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.
Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.
In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024.
Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)
Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.
At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.
Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.
Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.
Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)
There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.
Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.
Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.
Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.
Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)
I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.
Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.
Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.
Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.
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In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.
At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.
It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.
And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.
I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.
But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.
If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.
To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.
There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.
Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.
The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.
First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.
And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”
So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.
More from the Wedge Guy
- The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1
- The Wedge Guy: The easiest-to-learn golf basic
- The Wedge Guy: Golf mastery begins with your wedge game
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title
The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.
After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.
Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.
Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.
The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.
Past Winners at Quail Hollow
- 2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
- 2022: Max Homa (-8)
- 2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
- 2019: Max Homa (-15)
- 2018: Jason Day (-12)
- 2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
- 2016: James Hahn (-9)
- 2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)
Key Stats For Quail Hollow
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Corey Conners (+1.01)
- Shane Lowry (+0.93)
- Austin Eckroat (+0.82)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:
- Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
- Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
- Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
- Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
- Chris Kirk (+0.52)
Proximity: 175-200
The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.
Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:
- Cameron Young (28’2″)
- Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
- Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
- Sam Burns (+30’6″)
- Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)
SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs
Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.
SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
- Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
- Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
- Will Zalatoris (+1.57)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Taylor Moore (+0.82)
- Nick Dunlap (+.76)
- Wyndham Clark (+.69)
- Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
- Cam Davis (+.61)
Course History
This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.
Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):
- Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
- Justin Thomas (+1.96)
- Jason Day (+1.92)
- Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
- Viktor Hovland (+1.78)
Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).
- Wyndham Clark
- Rory McIlroy
- Xander Schauffele
- Shane Lowry
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Viktor Hovland
- Cameron Young
- Austin Eckroat
- Byeong Hun An
- Justin Thomas
2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks
Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)
I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.
Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.
Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.
For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.
I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.
Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)
It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.
Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.
The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.
Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.
Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.
Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)
For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.
Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.
The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.
Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.
Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)
Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.
Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.
An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.
Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.
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David
Jun 27, 2015 at 5:12 am
Hank Haney explained this very well back in April. I’m not sure why you guys don’t believe him. Tiger has the yips. Not just in his short game. Everywhere. You don’t get rid of the yips. All you can do is hope for good shots in between yips. He knows he has it. He also knows he can’t get rid of it. We have Jordan Spieth now. I feel confident that he, along with Rory, will catch Jack’s record of 18. One of them will break it. Jordan Spieth. The year will be 2032.
Mark
Jun 10, 2015 at 5:23 am
Face up to it – Tiger’s career is in the departure lounge. It’s been great fun but it’s time to move on and crown the next icon. History will pass judgement on his place in the game – it will at least say he was the best of his era. He won’t be revered like Ben, loved like Arnie and he won’t be admired like Jack but he will be in most people’s all time top three because his record merits it alone.
The flame might flicker again briefly and remind us of what we are missing but the competition is a lap ahead now.
Jeff*
Jun 14, 2015 at 7:42 pm
Most people’s top 3? He’s Jack Nicklaus’s pick for best player of all time. Anyone who puts him anywhere but greatest of all time is simply old.
Robeli
Jun 18, 2015 at 11:04 pm
Yea, and that’s only because Jack is humble enough not to pick himself. Jack is 10 times better golfer than Tiger. Tiger had technology for him, Jack not.
Jeez Utz
Jun 9, 2015 at 4:06 pm
I can’t think of one player who’s been around a few years that hasn’t shot 80something……
I’m not saying that he’s done but I’ll admit that I’m not buying tiger stock anymore…
If he hasn’t started winning by next years open championship I feel it may be over….
And it’s fine, everyone’s time passes and WE don’t know what Tiger puts value on in his personal life..
It’s disappointing that (for the most part) everything he does gets criticized and after it’s over we’ll reflect on how great it was..just like other all time greats
All the legends go through this I’m sure
Butch Harmon
Jun 9, 2015 at 2:22 pm
Pride goeth before the fall. Even Jack asked for help from those with experience.
Robeli
Jun 9, 2015 at 2:31 pm
Humble does not exist in Tiger’s vocabulary.
Mad-Mex
Jun 9, 2015 at 3:17 am
Wonder how long before he starts doing adds for Warrior Golf,,,,,
Hi! Remember me? Am Tiger Woods! If you call within the next 15 minutes you will get this new Hybrid-Wedge combo with a pro style shaft for free! Just pay shipping and handling!
Mo
Jun 8, 2015 at 7:15 pm
Being publicly shamed has destroyed his self esteem. He knows that everybody thinks his behaviour was disgusting and he agrees with them.
Maybe a good psychologist could repair his self image in time, but until that’s fixed any chance of “swing fixes” solving the problem are zero.
Robeli
Jun 8, 2015 at 2:28 pm
Hmmm… Tiger Woods is following the career path of Mike Tyson – sport and personal wise.
Papi
Jun 8, 2015 at 1:49 pm
Tiger Woods is not in Denial.
But Golf Is.
Tiger Woods has played 5 Tournaments this season and the season is a few weeks from 8 months old.
That’s not Denial, that’s inactivity mainly due to injuries. That happens to be Fact.
A Guy who still today despite the worst golf of his career who still sports a 26% World Wide Win Record with 90 Wins when his closest competitor Phil has half that number of Wins is in Denial?
Tiger is 0-17 since his last PGA Tour Win a season that he won 5 Times. 0 for 17.
Phil is 0-38 since his last PGA Tour Wins and instead of articles about him being in Denial we get articles about him leaving $99 Tips for Lemonade?
Golf is in Denial. Not Tiger Woods.
A Guy who has Won Majors with 3 Different Swings is not in Denial.
If you listen to Tiger he is actually very honest about where he is with his game.
But we have a bunch of Fat Couch Potato Hack Writers and Fans who seem to forget that this man had Back Surgery 14 months ago and tried to come back to soon and it is lead to 5 Tournaments played in 2015 while changing his swing to something that won’t break his back and bust his Knee.
Maybe you Clowns should give that a Try.
Tiger Woods is not in Denial.
Golf is by continuing to Disrepect the Greatest Player in the History of the Game and continue to Lie thru it’s Teeth that Jack is the Greatest When Tiger has Destroyed Every Single Meaningful Record there is of Jack’s in Golf other than playing in 164 Majors. 68 for Tiger. The Rest He Owns Jack.
So Golf. Yes It Is You who is in Denial.
Tiger is not. He’s simply the Greatest Golfer who Ever Played this Game.
Robeli
Jun 8, 2015 at 10:14 pm
How does the Kool Aid taste?
Scooter McGavin
Jun 9, 2015 at 12:44 pm
Real original. Although sadly, not a sound argument. Next time, try addressing the points made (that are, in this case, facts) by the other person. From what I read, most of what was said was spot-on.
Robeli
Jun 12, 2015 at 12:21 pm
Scooter McGavin – what a real original name.
Robert
Jun 8, 2015 at 12:32 pm
If you remember his interviews when he was great, if he played like crap, he didn’t sugarcoat it like this. He said, “I had my C game out there. I played terrible.” He would have never said, “I hit some good shots, I just need to get a little better”. He has a different mindset now and it’s not the killer instinct. It’s gone forever.
dapadre
Jun 8, 2015 at 12:27 pm
Im a HUGE Tiger fan, lets get that out now. Anyone who loves this great game of ours cannot deny he changed it, brought it to main stream and showed us what great golf was with one of the most complete games ever seen. Even the great Nicklaus has been quoted as saying: without a doubt he was better than I was. Back in 2001 he also said he would be surprised if Woods didn’t beat his record. Fast forward and one questions if we were talking about the same player.
I think two things have caused this. One the INCIDENT ( we all know what I mean), played an ENNORMOUS role. We all know that at that level its 10% skill and 90% mind. He lost his edge that faithful day. He had to face the idea of what everyone was REALLY thinking when they saw him. Also his competitors we reaffirmed: HE IS HUMAN, and nothing brings a person faster to earth like a dose of humility. He didn’t get a dose he got the whole bottle. I personally can separate Tiger the golfer and Tiger the husband/father, but many cannot and he could not. It’s the price one pays for being famous.
Secondly, this crazy game of ours is one of the very few where you cant score a PERFECT score. In baseball you have the no hitter, basketball you can go perfect shooting and from the free throw line, bowling 300… you get the picture. In our sport the perfect score would be an ace on all 18 holes. As this is impossible, there is this yearning to get as perfect as possible. One of Tigers most famous quotes was, if you do nothing, you are standing still. This has cost him. In his search for perfection, he failed to realise that 99.9% (purely an example here) is not bad after all.
He has ruined what he had and to get back will be hard, if not impossible. I would love to see it, but not facing reality would be doing what Tiger is doing, DENIAL.
Captain Oblivious
Jun 8, 2015 at 8:58 am
Yes, Tiger needs to go back to Butch, re-hire Stevie, pull out the old Scotty, annul his marriage and somehow convince Elin to stuff those kids back in the womb, Rogain his receding hairline, get back to his “Buddhist roots” and last, but not least, dig ol’ Earl up out of the ground.
Pat M
Jun 8, 2015 at 3:32 pm
Elin does not want him back. Nike needs to pay Butch $3 million a year and also Steve $4 million a year. It is Eldrick’s only hope. Stick a fork in him. He cannot play with Spieth. And tell Jordan to start the Rogaine now so he does not turn into Tiger aka PED forhead.
adam
Jun 8, 2015 at 3:52 pm
You and your comments need a nap.
Jeff
Jun 7, 2015 at 11:33 pm
From all the books I’ve read about him and what I’ve seen, Tiger Woods appears to enjoy motivating himself to climb bigger and bigger mountains. In his young career, he stepped up and delivered time and time again, he won so many golf tournaments it changed the sport and the way players prepared to play the sport… Post 09 Tiger has appeared to be creating a huge challenge for himself to overcome. I think he’s over challenged himself at this point.
To answer the question from the title directly, I think it’s both, the happy man’s positive thinking is the depresso’s denial. It’s all about perspective. What is there to gain from seeing ones struggles as impossible to fix rather than close to being fixed? I love watching golf when Tiger wins so I’ll keep hoping to see the magic come back. Is it really close? Wouldn’t that be sweet.
christian
Jun 7, 2015 at 10:26 pm
Who cares about comparisons to baseball? Internationally, where we play a lot of golf, baseball is seen as a slow moving game devoid of much action st all with pudgy looking players in far too tight pants.
Patricknorm
Jun 8, 2015 at 6:31 am
You’ve never tried to hit a curve ball or even a fastball at 88 mph ( which is barely a fastball). Baseball is a nuanced game much like golf. Those two skill sets I’ve described for basebasell might be the hardest things to do in sports. Period. Actually the comparison was apt. But only for those who appreciate baseball.
As a qualifier I love baseball and have always yearned to master these skills.
christian
Jun 8, 2015 at 11:26 am
Sure, that’s probably hard to do, hit the fast ball or curve ball..But in between those rare clean hits there is a lot of dead time, people wandering around, beer&hot dogs are eaten. There can’t be that much “nuance” to it. Seems like a pretty one-dimensional, simple game.
Jay
Jun 8, 2015 at 12:41 pm
The article I read made no comparison of golf to baseball – it compared Tiger to 2 other greats who were playing their chosen sport at a level far below their best
cb
Jun 7, 2015 at 3:39 pm
I’m of the belief that he needs to take a break from competitive golf but still practice as if he were playing competitive. he obviously isn’t used to his swing changes. no one ever feels the same every morning when they wake up, so something for him could feel great one day and terrible the next. and with a new swing he might not know how to swing the new way with how he is feeling that day. when he was younger he had the same swing for years so his body knew what to do when he felt a certain way. he needs reps and reps, and hitting shots in front of a crowd or trying to figure things out in the middle of a round at a tournament are not the places to get those reps in.
Matty D
Jun 7, 2015 at 10:56 pm
I agree, gotta give him tell the end of the season at the least for conclusions can be made.
Martin B
Jun 8, 2015 at 11:15 pm
I think the he should actually be playing more tournaments at this point to fine tune his game and get the competitive juices flowing.
Kevin
Jun 7, 2015 at 12:15 pm
His short game, more often than not, is still dominant (and in his prime was the best ever). If he could hit more fairways, he could contend more. The fields now are MUCH better than they were when he was on his run in the early 2000’s. He’s like Larry Holmes in boxing in that regard, Holmes was so much better than anyone else at the time, but there weren’t other great heavy weights around when he was at his best. Tiger didn’t face great Sunday players like Trevino, Watson, Player, Miller, Casper, Palmer, etc, but all the while it seemed like he went about eight-years without missing a putt inside 10′. Greatest combination of short game and iron game dominance ever, and don’t forget his between the ears advantage. He changed the sport forever…
S
Jun 8, 2015 at 2:36 am
Yes. Saturday was an indication of how the game will change for the better without him. Saturday was probably one of the best days in the history of golf.
S
Jun 8, 2015 at 2:39 am
I really enjoyed Saturday. That was probably one of the most enjoyable Saturdays in golf I’ve experienced. The sickness will be gone soon.
Sat
Jun 8, 2015 at 3:31 am
That was such a great Saturday though
Greg
Jun 7, 2015 at 11:19 am
I’m not sure what to think of hs play anymore. As far as what he tells the media, I think it’s both for his benefit and his denial. I don’t think he really cares what the media says or thinks about him. It’s obvious by the choices in his lifestyle are still poor! Issues are apaarent
Nolanski
Jun 7, 2015 at 9:33 am
I’m grateful to have had the pleasure to watch Tiger when he was in his prime. But these young guns are so much fun to follow today that I’m ready to let go of hoping the old Tiger is going to walk through that door again.
Pat M
Jun 7, 2015 at 8:28 am
He is 27 strokes behind the leader at the end of the third round. After this tournament I think he will be about #200th in the world or worse. Will N*ke keep running the ads for this guy?
other paul
Jun 8, 2015 at 1:15 am
I doubt Nike can pull out. Contract is a contract.
Ben Hogan
Jun 7, 2015 at 7:38 am
I think that it is always important as a professional golfer or athlete to believe in yourself. Where else are you going to get the confidence to pull of shots otherwise. I personally think it is exactly what Tiger says it is when describing what he is going through. He is trying to change his release pattern but at the moment is unsure of exactly what release pattern will produce the results he wants. This is evident by his comments about small changes since the masters and then again this week since the players. Tiger has a lot of strong fundamentals of golf in his golf game and is one of the reasons why he was always able to produce in clutch moments. Right now you can see him making slight differences in his stance, posture, and grip and has Hogan said that is more than 80-85% of playing golf. I think he will eventually find the right combination that allows him to have a go to shot or eliminate one side of the golf course but it’s a process of finding out the feels that work for you.
John
Jun 7, 2015 at 7:13 am
Wow! 13 over par on a track that where he used to run over the field and then back up to make sure they were all dead.
Seems to me that, when looking at Tiger’s playing career going back to when he was a junior, he has “progressed backwards” in terms of his decisions regarding his game. Especially concerning teachers. The old teachers were their own men with their own opinions, the newest ones are Yes-men sycophants IMO.
His first teaching pros (Duran, Anselmo) were old school meat&potatoes type pros who focused on the important parts (eg: The clubface and shotmaking) and they allowed Tiger to find his own swing while still keeping his on course performance a notch or two above the competition.
His next two teaching pros, Butch and Hank, simplified his action(s) and stayed out of his way to allow him to shoot lights out. Both Hank and Butch were accomplished players in the past. Both know what it FEELS like to be out there inside the ropes with a scorecard and pencil in hand. No amount of theory gained from books or classes or over priced seminars can ever replace actual playing experience. Never.
The last two “coaches”…as I prefer to call them (Foley and Como) do not come from a competitive playing background at all, they’re more like friendly golf-nerds. Not that they’re wrong in whatever info they’ve given Tiger, but the application part of it is where things have gotten off the tracks so to speak yet no one has ever admitted any wrong doing. Sycophants.
It looks more like he’s been playing “bio-mechanic/kinetic golfswing” versus plain old “put the ball into the hole with a stick”. How he gets his game on track is up to him and him alone…not thru yet another miracle or new fangled theory.
Tiger switching coaches at his age after being crazy good and dominant in his sport would be like a 26yr old Wayne Gretzky, after winning yet another Stanley Cup and all sorts of scoring records, deciding to relearn the way he skates on ice. Ridiculous and a waste of time/money.
phew..off the soapbox. Longtime reader/very infrequent poster here on golfwrx
Booger
Jun 7, 2015 at 12:48 am
Every photo of tiger this year shows him with a huge fake smile. Nice try publicist. A smile on the course is rare.
Pat M
Jun 7, 2015 at 12:10 am
Is N*ke still going to keep selling this guy like he is a top player? At this point, he could not make it on the Web.com tour. The only things that could save his career is going back to Butch Harmon and rehiring Stevie Williams. If he does not do that, he is over. Lindsay Vonn knew it was over. She is a champion athlete and knows second place is for losers. tiger is what? 172nd in the world?
Pat M
Jun 7, 2015 at 8:12 am
It’s over. Either Tiger goes back to Butch and rehires Steve Williams (greatest caddy to play the game) or Tiger is over.
MRC
Jun 7, 2015 at 12:01 am
Turn out the lights, the party’s over.
BigBoy
Jun 6, 2015 at 11:59 pm
If he doesn’t get his life outside of golf right, his golfing days are over.
He may want to start with 8 hours a day on the range, no matter what swing he has.
Pat M
Jun 7, 2015 at 12:11 am
He has to go back to Butch and rehire Steve Williams. Boy Joe Lacava made a big mistake leaving DJ.
mhendon
Jun 6, 2015 at 11:56 pm
He’s not in denial, he’s just lying to the media and the rest of us. He’s lost his confidence plain and simple. He needs to quit using various instructors as a crutch and just start playing golf. First things first, get to where he has a one way miss then He’ll know where his ball is going. From there he can start rebuilding his confidence and that in turn will take pressure off his short game.
joey5picks
Jun 6, 2015 at 11:46 pm
Denial. 100% denial.
RG
Jun 6, 2015 at 10:53 pm
Dennis,
I corresponded with you earlier this year about Tiger and his chipping woes. I told you that when I saw him up close in January at Tavistock I could see fear in his eyes when he went to chip.I could see the hesitancy and jittery movement in his eyes. This caused some debate because Tiger had said it was a technique issue and many on this forum agreed. You, on the other hand, got what I was saying. How clear does my statement appear now?
This is what is ailing Tiger:
It was to easy. We look at Tiger’s dominance and think,”Wow if only I could do that.” Let me tell you something, Domination get’s boring. When your that far ahead you need a reason to keep working and pushing. When a child or adult is not challenged they will invent challenge’s for themselves and this is what Tiger did. He decided to change his swing. This decision cost him because we now know that was a poor decision, and poor decisions damage the psyche. He told everyone the swing change was for physical reasons but that’s hogwash. If that’s true, why are you always hurt?
Along the way he got caught cheating on his wife, which is even more damage to the psyche. This damaged psyche causes fear and doubt to creep into the mind. Tiger never experienced fear and doubt until he was well into his adult life. He has no coping mechanisms for these negative states.
He is definitely in a state of denial. He definitely thinks he’s close.
What does he need to do? Forgive himself and realize that he is human after all.
ML
Jun 6, 2015 at 10:42 pm
Just like when he had the chipping yips
Month later his short game was back after the whole world gathered to watch him chip for Christ sake
He’ll make it back and I can’t stand the guy
It’s one round and its golf
Again he won a major with no driver eventually he’ll settle on some sort of swing thought and go back to playing golf
jacob
Jun 6, 2015 at 10:10 pm
My old man always said one thing about golf, when you are playing good you never think you are going to play bad, and when you are playing bad you never think you are going to play good. Tiger era of the Tiger Slam dominance is over, he’s even admitted it. The thing is, I think we as spectators are in denial because we want to see him recapture that. But, he is being positive..but isn’t being positive a bit of denial in it’s own right? Denying the negative in life and focusing on the good?I’m sure he has some gas left in the tank. But I do believe he won’t start winning until he grinds again. When he decides to play as many tournaments as Phil or Rory he’ll be back.
Mat
Jun 6, 2015 at 11:23 pm
I can’t agree more. We hear all about the “mental game” being important. This guy has more mental game than anyone ever has. When it’s new success, “only he could have believed it”. When it’s failure after success, he’s “delusional”. Here’s the thing… it’s the same. He’s been the same, robotically focused guy. It’s everyone else that changes. Clearly he has issues, but do you think he’s going to say that in an interview now? Come on… never has, never will.
Pat M
Jun 7, 2015 at 12:13 am
As of today he is 172nd in the world? After this tourney he will be probably 200th in the world? He will be back? Yeah sure.
Mat
Jun 7, 2015 at 3:20 am
That’s not the point. The point isn’t whether he makes it back; the point is that he has a mental game we should all aspire to. What seems like denial will be his greatest ally. The results are still in doubt, obviously. But we all have the benefit of being objective. Why vilify the guy for doing what he’s supposed to?
Pat M
Jun 7, 2015 at 8:15 am
What mental game? He lost that a long time ago. He is not the toughest mentally. In golf you make cuts and shoot low scores. 85 does not cut it on any tour. He should consider the Hooters Tour.
Dennis Clark
Jun 7, 2015 at 6:41 am
Your old man said a mouthful. That is the essence of our game. It’s curse and its blessing!!
Guia
Jun 6, 2015 at 9:46 pm
He is in Denial, and I don’t mean the river. He could have stuck with any of the 3 previous coaches and he would still be winning. He has drank his own koolaid and unfortunately believes he is bullet proof. He has come to believe that it is the swing that wins golf tournaments, it isn’t and never has been.
I believe he is too proud to admit that this new method is just not working! He is the Captain of his own fate and will go down with the ship. He has forgotten how to play golf and how to score, and is now wrapped up in Technical Mumbo-Jumbo. Over coached.
I have always been a Tiger fan (of his golf), however, now he has reached the John Daly plateau, people are watching to see how he will self-destruct. Very sad. I would love to eat my words, but it is doubtful.
Double Mocha Man
Jun 6, 2015 at 8:52 pm
I think he still hits the same shots he used to hit… just not as often. That’s where the denial lies.
Nice Impact
Jun 6, 2015 at 8:22 pm
I think Tiger truly does believe he’s close, or not far off. I don’t think it’s denial. I think that anyone who is good/great at what they do genuinely has to want to feel that way to keep themselves moving forward, knowing that it doesn’t help to give in to negative thinking; especially out loud. Most of us will feel this way about our own professions and hobbies in some aspect as we get older and our bodies don’t quite feel as consistent as our minds. In our minds, were still capable of what we once were until we’ve met enough resistance telling us otherwise. And even then, we’ll still swear we can “do it” (whatever “it” is). Agreed; his consistent best is behind him now, but he can/will still have some special moments if he can adjust. Of course, just my .02¢.
Dennis Clark
Jun 6, 2015 at 8:50 pm
good point; its hard to tell what that level player is thinking but affirming the negative is going the wrong way i think?
Dennis Clark
Jun 6, 2015 at 8:06 pm
LOL…that’s the point though…did he really believe that when he said it?
Johnny
Jun 6, 2015 at 7:36 pm
Was his glutes activated??
Dennis Clark
Jun 6, 2015 at 7:13 pm
me too, and Im HOPING he gets it sorted out…Im not ready to see history go away this soon!
Steve
Jun 6, 2015 at 8:20 pm
I think the ship has sailed. This isnt a case of getting close, it is a case of getting further away. The twenty something pros have no Tiger scar tissue. This season looks like a loss. Entering his forties the future is dim. He couldnt win on the WEB.com tour.
stu
Jun 6, 2015 at 7:07 pm
de nial is not just a river in Africa!
Steve
Jun 7, 2015 at 9:26 am
Its france, you dummy
stu
Jun 8, 2015 at 8:41 am
wrong frog boy! Go ask your mommy.
Captain Oblivious
Jun 8, 2015 at 8:50 am
I guess we all know who failed Geography.
Matto
Jun 6, 2015 at 7:02 pm
An 85 surely is pure and simple, playing poorly? No press conference after that round either. I think HE even thought it might be tricky to put a positive spin on that round. I’m still a big fan.