Opinion & Analysis

How low can you go?

Published

9 years ago

May 12, 2015

An anonymous pro golfer commented on one of my articles last month (What score makes you happy?) saying that he’d once shot a 60 and hadn’t been aware of his score at all while he was playing the round.

Since I’m no pro golfer, at any point of the 18 holes I can usually tell you pretty accurately how many birdies I’ve had that day, though granted, it doesn’t take too long to count to zero.

But it got me wondering about low scores, and how low can you go.

“I had a 76 last year. That’s my personal best,” Kenny told me around the driving range at Anaheim Hills. “I was just unconscious. I’ve only broken 80 three times in my life, so far.”

“I had 12 pars and shot an 83 once,” said Bill, while shielding his face from the sun with his arm as he waited to tee off at Marshal Canyon one Saturday morning. “Can you imagine how badly I had to play on the other 6 holes to shoot 83?”

“It wasn’t my lowest round ever but the first time I broke 90, I had to make a birdie on 18 for 89,” Manny told me over his hot dog in the snack bar at Griffith Park.

“You talk about pressure. My friend told me on the 18^th tee I needed birdie. It was at Los Serranos South, the long par-5, but we were playing the white tees. Hit my third shot on to about 15 feet and made the putt. It was in from the second I hit it; the putt was perfect. I was dancing around the green.”

“I had 62 once,” and I looked kind of incredulous at the quite overweight 60 year old who I thought maybe was telling me how many donut holes he’d eaten this week. “Seriously, a 62. Course it was a 4-man scramble, but it was still fun to go that low,” and as he laughed his belly shook.

“My low net was a 63 in a tournament once,” Devin told me at the driving range. “People were saying I was a sandbagger but I just had one of those days; shot a 75 playing off a 12 handicap. I got what’s called an ‘exceptional tournament score.’”

That is exceptional, I said. “I haven’t shot another 75 since that round,” he answered, shaking his head. “The next tournament my handicap was 3 strokes lower and that time I think I had a 75 net.”

Six times on the PGA Tour a pro golfer has broken 60. Those competition-record 59s were rewarded with cash and admiration, not a handicap penalty. But how do you shoot a score that low?

“I got off to a good start one day last summer,” Arturo told me at Montebello Country Club. “I was 2-under through six holes, made the turn at 1-under and I was still under par through the 13^th hole. On No. 14 I hit a great drive, then nearly shanked my second shot out of bounds. Finished with a 74 and I was pissed all day until I realized that it was still my best round ever. But I’m still upset about that shot, really… the worst shot I hit all year and it came during the best round I ever played. Strange.”

“I broke 100 for the first time last year,” Adam said while practicing his putting at La Quinta. “I’ve only been playing for two years and this summer I’m going to break 90.” He said it with the optimism of someone who still thinks golf can be mastered.

“I remember the first time I broke 80,” Larry told me in the coffee shop at Indian Hills. “I didn’t even know it until after I added it up. I knew I had a good round going and I was nervous over the 5-footer for bogey on 18. If I had known it was for 79 there’s no way I would have made it.”

I asked him if that was his best round.

“No, that was a few years ago. I’m a 9 now so I’m in the 70s pretty often. Had a couple of 75s last year, and a 73 two years ago, that was my best,” he added. “My dream is to shoot even par. My fantasy is to break par someday.”

A stooped man with silver hair was hitting long putts from one side of the practice green to the other at Griffith Park. I figured if he’d broken 90 he’d have a story to tell me.

“A 64,” he said, and I guess I looked surprised. “I had a slew of ‘em. I golfed all my life — I only putt now. I putt every day until I make one from one side of the putting green to the other. Some days it takes longer than others.”

His name is Stan. “I shot in the 60s pretty often. It was a bad day if I wasn’t at least at par. There were some great players around then,” and he mentioned a couple of names that I didn’t recognize.

“We used to play all over, but the first 64 was at Hacienda. It was in 1951, we played a lot after the war and those were good times.” I asked if he remembered any of the shots from his first 64. “Like it was yesterday. There was no drama to the end though, we’d already won the match. We were playing against some hot-shot lawyer and his partner I can’t remember — took home some good money. My guy Bill was good that day too; we would play anybody, anywhere.”

“The 64?” I asked.

“Yep, I don’t know how many of ‘em I had, there was a bunch. Never shot a 63. A couple of ‘em could have been better, but I wasn’t playing for the score, I was playing to win.”

Just like that anonymous pro, I realized.

What’s your lowest round ever and what was it like?

Let us know in the comments section below and read the first chapters of Tom Hill’s humorous golf book, A Perfect Lie – The Hole Truth 18 Holes of Golf in Pursuit of the Round of a Lifetime, at 7-ironpress.com. Get free shipping on the paperback with the code GOLFWRX, or $4 off the e-book when you enter the code GOLFWRX1 at check-out.

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Tom HIll

Tom Hill is a 9.7 handicap, author and former radio reporter. Hill is the author of the recently released fiction novel, A Perfect Lie – The Hole Truth, a humorous golf saga of one player’s unexpected attempt to shoot a score he never before thought possible. Kirkus Reviews raved about A Perfect Lie, (It) “has the immediacy of a memoir…it’s no gimme but Hill nails it square.” (kirkusreviews.com). A Perfect Lie is available as an ebook or paperback through 7-ironpress.com and the first three chapters are available online to sample. Hill is a dedicated golfer who has played more than 2,000 rounds in the past 30 years and had a one-time personal best handicap of 5.5. As a freelance radio reporter, Hill covered more than 60 PGA and LPGA tournaments working for CBS Radio, ABC Radio, AP Audio, The Mutual Broadcasting System and individual radio stations around the country. “Few knew my name and no one saw my face,” he says, “but millions heard my voice.” Hill is the father of three sons and lives with his wife, Arava Talve, in southern California where he chases after a little white ball as often as he can.

32 Comments

Joe

Aug 10, 2015 at 11:41 pm

My lowest score ever is a 67, an extremely good iron round and I didn’t have too many putts over 16 feet. That was in 1983 when I was a 2 handicap.
Since that time I have had only 2 or 3 sub 72 rounds. Now in my twilight years (75 years old) and playing to a 12, sub par rounds are only a memory and could only happen on a putt-putt course.
Damn that Windmill hole.

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stephenf

Jun 6, 2015 at 8:22 pm

Lowest score was 64, but it was mostly just good midrange-to-long putting. Didn’t hit it any better that day than most days, and actually sort of scraped it around on some of the holes, but it was a nonpenal golf course, frankly, so you could go miss-miss-putt for birdie a lot (by “miss,” I mean “miss” for a scratch player, which I was). Miss the drive into the scraggly, sparse rough, get lucky enough for some kind of lie, blade it out of there on the green, make a 25-footer, or whatever. The score was more or less a fluke, and not a “best” round, really.

Later, as a plus-2, I did have a few 65s (very few — I was more of the steady 69-70 shooter rather than the 63 one day and 78 the next) and quite a few 66s and 67s. I remember one 65 in a tournament fairly well — hitting it OK off the tee, not awesome, but good enough, and hitting it pretty well with the irons. Closed with a disappointing miss on the 17th from 12 feet for eagle after a 250-yard 2-iron (not all that awesome — it was well-hit, but with the old standard Wilson Staffs, sort of hard in front of the green…well-judged, hit solidly, and on line, I guess, but it’s not like I flew it 250 and stuck it by the hole), then hit 9-iron to about four feet above the hole on #18 and saw two breaks, had to make a decision…still kinda proud of that make.

One more, a 66 I’m still pissed about: Again in a tournament round, started out (no kidding) seven under after the first six holes, hit it at least as well from that point to the end of the round and never made another putt. Had a shot at 28 on the front nine until I missed a sidehill three-footer for par on #8 and then a five-footer for birdie on #9. Missed about four from inside 7-8 feet on the back nine for birdie. Just disgusting. I really felt like a 60 or even 59 was coming that day, felt good all day, hit every putt exactly like I wanted, but they just stopped dropping. Sometimes it works out like that. Years and years later, I still hate it, but that’s golf. (I still contend that for six holes, I might’ve been playing better than anybody in the world that day. Can’t disprove it, so it must be true. 😉 )

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Martin

May 23, 2015 at 4:13 pm

My best round is +4 to par, a 75 on a par 71 and last summer a 76 on our par 72 course.

The 75 was a few years ago, teed up on 17 +1 with a short par 3 and a relatively easy par 5 18th. 3 putt bogey on 17, teed off on 18 with a 3w to play safe, pushed it a bit didn’t have a full swing. Punch it down the fw, had exactly 300 yards into the green, perfect 3H. Hit one of the alltime worst shots ever, 130 yards and 80 yards offline.

Made a double for a 75.

Last summer playing with 3 guys I work with, sloppy front including 2 doubles, 41, birdies 10 and then made 8 pars for a 35 on the back.

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Ryan

May 22, 2015 at 11:29 am

I find the notion that people can finish and round and not know how many under they are just crazy. I’ve tried my very hardest to immerse myself in the shot at hand for 18 straight holes and I haven’t found the secret yet. It’s just so exhausting.

Personal low is 62 on a par 70, but shot 63 on a par 72 in college. I was in the zone on both rounds but still knew where I was to par, just didn’t “care”. A few beers probably helped in both cases.

I’ve shot 30 twice for nine, both with excellent opportunities to put up the magical 29, and couldn’t do either. First time I came to the 18th -7 after 8 on the back (par 36), short par 5, got it down by the green in two, skulled a chip, chunked another, then got up and down for 30. Still burns to this day even nine years later. Second time was a par 35, came to the ninth -5 and needing birdie for 29, hit it to 8ft and lipped out the putt. That one doesn’t hurt because I didn’t choke.

Realizing over the last couple years that I need serious work on my mental game to have these kind of rounds happen more often, not just once a decade.

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Sean D

May 21, 2015 at 9:19 pm

I was 18 years old in 1998. My dad was the superintendent of the course where I grew up so I played there every day and worked for him on the course. I was like a 5 handicap at the time. I think my lowest score ever at that point was a 73. Par was 71. Never shot even. It was in the fall in up state NY and they had just finished spiking the greens over a three day period. This was a muni course so there’s still sand all over them and there Bumpy as hell. It was Men’s night at the club which was on a Tuesday. I shot 66 on the worst spiked greens you ever saw. I made every putt. Thinking back about it now it was a joke. I had two bogies that day too. Whenever I go home to visit and play with my dad the old timers who still have coffee at the club every day pull me aside and say “I still remember the day you shot 66 on spiked greens.” 17 years later and these guys in their mid 80’s remember. I won mens night and like $15 bux in pro shop credit. So I’ve got that going for me.

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Griiz01

May 18, 2015 at 11:38 pm

I’m 52 years old. Been playing since I was 5 years old. A lot of good rounds and a lot of bad ones. I’ve been as low as a 1 handicap but with life getting in the way I probably stay around a 9-10 handicap these days. My best rounds are when I’m not thinking. Meaning that I’m not thinking about my swing at all. I will think about where I want to place the ball or even how a shot needs to come off, but I’m never thinking about the swing (the mechanics).

When I was younger, I thrived on competition, the more pressure you put on me the better I played. I ate it up. I was too young to know better. I didn’t know I was suppose to be nervous or worried. I just knew I was suppose to do all I could to win.

Now-a-days, I just like going out and enjoying my time on the course. I don’t worry about scores, I just completely enjoy the greatest game ever played by man.

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Adam

May 18, 2015 at 8:23 pm

One thing I’ve always found interesting. On my best rounds, I haven’t been the one keeping score. Lately, I’ve had some of my better rounds, but certainly not my best, and those rounds have been when I’m keeping meticulous note of stats…FIR, GIR, sand saves if applicable, putts, etc. The rounds that have been my absolute best are the rounds when I’m just along for the ride and don’t keep score other than telling my playing partner what I got on the hole. Anyone have similar experience?

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Robert

May 14, 2015 at 9:27 am

I shot 62 at my home course Holly Tree CC earlier this year. It tied the course record from the men’s white tees. I didn’t make a birdie until the 5th hole and turned in 3 under. But I got crazy hot on the back nine (29). That was the first time I broke 30 for nine, and I’ve had a lot of close calls. I wasn’t even thinking about going that low until I holed out for eagle on the 16th hole which put me to 8 under. The final two holes are good birdie opportunities, so once I got to -8 I knew today was a great chance to tie or beat the course record. I made birdie on 17 making a really good 10 ft putt. The 18th is a very reachable par 5. I hit a great tee shot and had between 5 and 6 iron to the green. All I could think of was, just hit the green and give yourself a chance. I did get home in two but had probably 60ft for eagle. I hit a good putt to about 4-5ft and somehow rolled that in. Not bad considering I played 14 holes 10 under and par’d two of the four par 5’s. Pretty good feeling that day and I don’t think I’ve been so nervous on a golf course since I first broke 70. Looking back on it I don’t think I was striking the ball any better than usual, it was just a really good day with the putter. I had to make an 8-10ft par save on my second hole. I don’t make that and the whole day is probably changed. I had three other 63’s out there both from the white tees and two from the championship tees, one of them was in a pro-am. I wish I could boil all those rounds down into some kind of secret to going that low but there isn’t. Sometimes it’s just your day and you’re making all the putts, sometimes you just start hitting it close and it seems easy. It’s just golf, you never know what’s going to happen, and I think that’s why we all continue to play again and again.

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RG

May 14, 2015 at 8:09 am

Wow, people posting here claiming handicaps that obviously don’t know how GHIN works should stop, it’s embarrassing.
Tom, A Perfect Lie is a good name for your book if your adding some of these replies.

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Fiorenzo

May 14, 2015 at 3:54 am

74 playing in a mixed golf day with my wife as partner and sharing a cart. At the time I was playing off an 8 handicap. Due to the constant bickering I was not really aware of what was happening till the last few holes which led me to tighten up and possibly loose out on a better score. Now, years later there is not much chance to improve that score although the bickering is still there and going strong.

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Ryan J

May 14, 2015 at 12:32 am

I’ve shot 68 more than a dozen times and one 66 on a par 70.
When I shot the 66 I played the first nine in 38 strokes and then finished with a 28 with a bogey. I didn’t even notice how low I was because I was frustrated with a few three putts that first nine and had three or four of those back nine birdies inside five feet.
That round was the third time I had broken 30 in nine holes but the other two ended at 68 because I got caught up in the score trying to go low.
In golf, the hardest person to beat is yourself.

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Tim

May 13, 2015 at 9:41 pm

Personal best is a 74 (par 72), which includes a triple bogey on the first hole, and a double bogey on the second hole. So after starting the round 5 over, I followed it up with my longest stretch of under par golf ever including holing out from a bunker on 17 for a birdie. I knew during the round I would easily best 80 but didn’t want to do the math until after the round because I knew it’s possible I was flirting with even. Prior to that my personal best was 79.

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Bob

May 13, 2015 at 9:08 pm

74. I hit the ball straight all day, got my chips one-putt close, and sank most of the makable putts I had. There weren’t any miracle shots– just a day of good golf for 18 holes instead of 14 or 15.

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Joel

May 13, 2015 at 5:12 pm

I have shot 72 twice in my 45+ year golfing career. The interesting thing about each was I pulled off the birdie hat trick on the last 3 holes, 38 out and 34 in. Can only imagine the possible score without a couple of mistakes. I am working to break par this year and move my handicap below 2.0(currently 4.6).

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Horace

May 13, 2015 at 4:21 pm

Shot 70 once (probably a 12+/- HC then). Had an eagle ($25 skin), three birdies, and three bogies in a weekly Sunday 4-5 person BB Tournament on a San Antonio muni with hard-pan and some thin turf. The bogies came on three holes where one competitor beat me to tee box and hit out of turn.

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Joe

May 13, 2015 at 2:44 pm

Dear Stone Thrower,

An 8 handicap shooting even par should call no one a sand-bagger.

Signed,

Glass House

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John

May 13, 2015 at 1:30 pm

I have only shot even par for 18 holes twice, but the second time was special. Driver, 5-iron on the 490 yard par five 18th hole for a double eagle for a 72… should have retired from the game right then and there – it doesn’t get much better than that!

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- Craig
  
  May 14, 2015 at 4:13 am
  
  What is a double eagle. It is called an albatross.
  Some STUPID yank commentator calls it that. HE is not correct
  -1 is a birdie
  -2 is an eagle
  -3 is an albatross
  
  Reply Report comment
Sam

May 13, 2015 at 12:18 pm

My best is a 78, your wouldnt believe it but I went bogey, double then bogey on my first three holes, I then oplayed that nine in another three over and somehow I shot even on the back nine to shoot my best round to par, (I had a 75 but on a par 68). I noticed that on the back nine I just started to not care and I made two birdies in a row. I went on to place 3rd in the tournament but I know if i hadn’t gone +4 on the first three holes, it could have been and even better day.

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- Bob
  
  May 13, 2015 at 9:10 pm
  
  I believe it. You just had your bad holes all at once instead of sprinkling them throughout the round.
  
  Reply Report comment
Blake

May 13, 2015 at 11:00 am

My best is a 62… I was -8 thru 12 and it was a par 70, so you know what crossed my mind… Anyway, the putts stopped dropping and I played par golf in for -8..

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Ben

May 13, 2015 at 9:51 am

I shot 75 (+3) last summer as a 9 index. Had a great feeling before the round but that quickly faded after bogeying 4 of the first 5 holes. Settled in after that and hit 11/13 greens, made 3 birdies, and shot even par on the back 9. On the last hole I pulled my tee shot way right but then hit my 135yd uphill, blind approach over towering pines to 3 feet. I was almost emotional after tapping in knowing I just played the round of my life.

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Paul

May 13, 2015 at 6:48 am

Par 73 shot 65 4 times but twice I was -7 after 9 and started thinking 60 choked my way in both times but I think my best round was playing match play a few years back tripled 3 to go 3 over finished eagle,eagle to finish 8 under on 12 no gimmies last eagle holed 8 iron my opponent was just laughing he was more excited then me I think.

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Joe

May 13, 2015 at 5:26 am

Shot 59 to break my own course record of 62 last year (par 72), club championship, second round of stroke play. It was an interesting round… I demolished an entire pizza in the restaurant in between rounds so I was in a complete food coma, practically unconscious for the front 9 and part of the back. I don’t even remember clearly what I did on those holes. I didn’t realize where I was at until I eagled the 14th, happy to maybe get a skin in our side game and noticed the guys I was playing with looking at me and the scorecard nervously (they know not to say anything if I get something going). I had to ask, they told me I was -12, and I played the most nervous closing 4 holes of my life. Scraped out a birdie on 17, almost blew it on 18 by driving it through the fairway close to water but managed to get it done. One of the biggest achievements of my career and I don’t even remember most of it lol.

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- Progolfer
  
  May 16, 2015 at 1:30 am
  
  Great story Joe. I’m the anonymous profesisonal golfer he’s referring to in the beginning of the article. Isn’t it funny that on our career days, we had no idea what was really going on? Everything always slows down when I’m playing well, and I just get so into it and absorbed. That’s the key to success in golf (and life, too)– you get out of your own head and connect with what you’re doing. The rest just takes care of itself… Thanks for sharing your story.
  
  Reply Report comment
Nate

May 12, 2015 at 9:35 pm

I was around a 20 handicap until I got serious about my game after graduating from business school two years ago. Last summer, I broke 85 for the first time playing with a coworker at a local metro. I was -1 through 6, even through 8, and finished with an 11 over 83. Was a great round but I am still kicking myself for for playing the final 10 holes at +9. I just started leaking oil on the back 9…spraying the driver all over the place!

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Martin

May 12, 2015 at 8:49 pm

My best two scores are a 75 on a par 71 slope rating 124 course with a bogey, double finish and a 76 last summer on our par 72/133 course, shot 41/35.

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other paul

May 12, 2015 at 7:29 pm

Played 9 holes on a local muni. Shot 38, on the 9 hole course. I have never done better then an 84.

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RobG

May 12, 2015 at 4:47 pm

I’ve broken 80 about 6 times but two times really stand out for me.

I grew up playing golf around guys with money but they only gambled during their men’s league. The summer I turned 19 (legal age in BC) I joined the men’s league and my first night out, the money and prizes were on the back nine. I went out in 38 (+2) and came back in at 35 (-1). I took about $260 in birdie and skins money. Not bad for a 1st impression.

The second round (same course, same summer) I shot a 76. This one is special because 3 days prior I was sitting on the hood of my brothers car catching a ride up to the house when he gunned it and shook me off as a prank. I was wearing steel toed work boots and couldn’t catch my feet. I landed hard on the dirt driveway and mangled both my hands. I was picking rocks out of my palms for 2 days. I was playing golf with two gloves on packed with gauze and by the end of the the round blood had soaked through both my gloves. I guess the pain kept me from gripping too tight because I hit about 6 of the best shots of my life that day. Karma is a wonderful thing, I took my brother for $60.

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Mike

May 12, 2015 at 3:48 pm

Broke par through 9 holes for the first time last week then sorta choked on the back. Still my best ever at a +2, 74.

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Alex

May 12, 2015 at 2:19 pm

Last year I made par at my home course (71). My handicap at the time was 8 so I shot 63 net. The best thing was I was +3 on the 10th tee and I made 3 birdies coming home. The bad: I lost by 1 to a sandbagger LOL.

Reply Report comment
- RG
  
  May 14, 2015 at 8:05 am
  
  You are obviously making this up and have no idea how GHIN works, stop you are embarrassing yourself.
  
  Reply Report comment

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla

Published

1 hour ago

May 13, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.

The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old.

Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades.

Valhalla Golf Club is a par-72 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event.

The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions. All of the top players will be here gunning for the glory of a major championship with the exception of

Past Winners of the PGA Championship

2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Valhalla

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Shane Lowry (+1.25)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
Jordan Smith (+1.05)
Tom Hoge (+.96)
Corey Conners (+.94)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:

Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
Keith Mitchell (+.90)
Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
Ludvig Aberg (+.82)

Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs

Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:

Jon Rahm (+2.56)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
Shane Lowry (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses

Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
Xander Schauffele (+1.60)

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships

One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event.

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens

Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
Justin Rose (+0.93)
J.T. Poston (0.87)

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways

Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds:

Justin Thomas (+1.53)
Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
Rory McIlroy (+1.23)

2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%).

Brooks Koepka
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Shane Lowry
Alex Noren
Will Zalatoris
Cameron Young
Keith Mitchell
Hideki Matsuyama
Billy Horschel
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Adam Schenk
Chris Kirk
Sahith Theegala
Min Woo Lee
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas

2024 PGA Championship Picks

Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)

At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.

Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.

Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.

In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024.

Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)

Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.

At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.

Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.

Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.

Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)

There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.

Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.

Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.

Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.

Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)

I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.

Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.

Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.

Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 2

Published

4 days ago

May 9, 2024

Terry Koehler

In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.

At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.

It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.

And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.

I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.

But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.

If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.

To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.

There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.

Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.

The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.

First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.

And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”

So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

7 days ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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