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PGA Tour Rookies 2015: Who can make the biggest splash?

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The 2014 class of PGA Tour rookies were underwhelming to say the least. Chesson Hadley captured Rookie of the Year honors on the circuit, a distinction he achieved via a victory and four total top-10s.

Among the winners of the award since 2010, this campaign is easily the worst of the bunch. Jordan Spieth’s 2013 and Keegan Bradley’s 2011 speak for themselves. But despite zero wins in 2010, Rickie Fowler’s season was demonstrably better than Hadley’s 2014—courtesy of three top-threes and seven top-10s. John Huh’s 2012 mirrored the one-win, four top-10 showing of last year’s winner, but his 22-of-28 in made cuts far outpaces Hadley’s 13-of-29.

The rest of the rookie bunch in 2014 proved so thoroughly mediocre that the other two finalists (Brooks Koepka and Victor Dubuisson) were part-time PGA Tour players.

The 2014-2015 PGA Tour rookie class has the chance to cleanse the sins of its predecessor though. This group of maiden voyagers contains a boatload of high-potential performers in their initial Tour season.

Among the freshman pack, seven names in particular stick out. And we have predictions for all of them in 2015.

Yes, rookie seasons are technically underway, but the sample size is still quite small.

Much remains to be seen and here are our best guesses as to the progress of this most-talented set in the upcoming year.

Nick Taylor 

NickTaylor

Let’s start off with the only Tour rookie with a win in the wraparound portion of the 2014-2015 schedule.

Yes, Taylor secured a two-shot victory at the Sanderson Farms Championship in early November—a milestone win in a young career.

The 26-year-old’s name may be unfamiliar to most golf fans, but Taylor was once the World’s No. 1-ranked amateur.  That was in 2009, only five years ago.

In the coming years, Taylor would try his hand on mini tours and the PGA Tour Canada circuit. In Canada he was fine, finishing in the top 30 on the money list each year from 2011-2013. Taylor was exempt on the Web.com Tour in 2014, and placed 69th on its money list. A trip to the Web.com Tour Finals got him his PGA Tour card.

A victory and former top-dog status seem to imply a prosperous beginning in the big leagues, especially with his high status on the PGA Tour tournament priority list (which means easy access to most events) via his spot in the winners’ category… except I’m more comfortable cooling off on the Taylor hype.

Even in his early seasons on far lesser circuits than the PGA Tour, his results weren’t overwhelming, and he didn’t tear it up on the Web.com Tour last season. The win this fall was nice and a legitimate great week of golf, but probably an outlier at this point. In four other PGA Tour events during the wraparound, Taylor made three cuts but never placed in the top 50.

With all of this, I feel Taylor will just fall into his fair share of valleys in the new calendar year. Taylor may be on his way to a lot of low finishes and missed cuts, but has the silver lining of one week of fantastic golf that sets his top-10 number at two. If it wasn’t for the victory, I would expect Taylor to struggle to keep his card.

Adam Hadwin

AdamHadwin

Another Canadian here, Hadwin’s name surfaced with an eye-opening T4 at the RBC Canadian Open in 2011, submerged with decent but non-promotion worthy play on the Web.com Tour and rocketed back up with a 2014 that placed him on top of the minor league circuit.

The 27-year-old won twice and top-tenned nine times on the Tour last year, a performance set that garnered him the top spot on the Web.com Tour’s final money list (regular season plus Finals events money). He’s claimed that maturity played a large role in his renaissance season, but such an intangible is notoriously difficult to evaluate.

Hadwin’s name fits in the neutral category—where the rookie season is neither an outright dud nor a star effort. His wraparound results resemble those of Taylor (minus the victory), which isn’t promising. But he was an excellent player on the Web.com Tour last year, something that Taylor can’t claim.

Hadwin is fully exempt, and I expect him to make more cuts than missed and dabble in top-10s and top-25s. Of this group, he may be the most innocuous in 2015.

Tony Finau

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Despite Taylor’s victory, Finau was the PGA Tour’s rookie story of the fall.

I mean, it’s tough to match a former 17-year-old professional whose career went south before finally finding his groove with a terrific season seven years later. And the folklore of his prodigious length off the tee is acquiring a sizable audience of its own.

Finau’s hype has been warranted in a way with his fall start in the wraparound, a five-event opening that produced two top-10s and four top-25s. Of course the praise has also been overdone to a degree—these results are a nice small sample, but they don’t tell a long-term story yet (especially when you peer into the quality of the fields).

The results are unlikely to match the story then in 2015. Finau is first on the reshuffle (a ranking list of the Web.com Tour Finals graduates that determines the order the players are selected into fields), which bodes very well for his schedule. He also possesses a lot of power, game and confidence heading into the new year, and while those all should aid his progress in 2015, his golf is still somewhat raw and he’s still quite new to fighting high-level competition (last season was his maiden one on the Web.com Tour).

Finau’s off to an excellent start and his game shouldn’t drop too much, but I don’t expect him to approach the pace he set in the fall. His game won’t generally be this sharp, and the stiffer competition will further skew the results downward. There will be some good showings though, I believe at least one top-three, and combined with his results from the fall, it should make him a nominee for Rookie of the Year. Check out Brendan Steele’s and Chris Kirk’s numbers from their rookie 2011’s and that’s where I see Finau ending up (minus any wins).

The 25-year-old success story should be just fine in 2015, but it’ll be difficult to prolong the torrid stretch he produced in the fall.

Patrick Cantlay

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This is stretching the definition of rookie in a conventional sense, but the PGA Tour still recognizes Cantlay as a newborn pup.

The UCLA man is indeed in his first season by Tour standards, but is by far the trickiest to project on this occasion.

For recollection, the former World No. 1 amateur came into professional life with plenty of hype in 2012, and played pretty well in making six cuts in seven PGA Tour events on sponsors exemptions.

But the following year on the Web.com Tour, Cantlay started struggling with a hairline fracture in his vertebrae in the summer and shut down his play completely in September in order to let the injury heal (it didn’t require surgery). And more or less, he has played very little since in battling this and a potentially separate back injury.

If completely healthy and in good standing to obtain a full-time slate of PGA Tour events, Cantlay would rocket near the top of the list here. His talent is that vast.

The 22-year-old played the final wraparound event of the fall, but we don’t know for sure that his injuries have disappeared or that they won’t recur again—let alone the rust factor. He’s also a lowly 45th on the reshuffle, making playing opportunities scarcer and subsequently more pressure packed.

He’ll likely play more than in the past two years (12.5 events per annum combined on the PGA and Web.com Tours), but all of the aforementioned issues prevent me from seeing much success for him as a rookie. I see another limited schedule where he can make cuts without too much issue, but top finishes will be be rare.

Unfortunately this will probably lead to Cantlay going to the Web.com Tour Finals to regain his PGA Tour card. The future beyond 2015 is still bright though.

Carlos Ortiz 

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He’s a hot name whose relationship with Lorena Ochoa seems to come up in every story—no matter how much he previously expounded upon it.

Save this minor inconvenience of the media glare, the last 12 months have been a stunning bunch from the Mexican-born Ortiz. In that span, he rocketed from a no-name to a Web.com Tour blitzer, capturing three victories and earning a battlefield promotion to the PGA Tour. The spotlight has been on him since.

Ortiz also nailed together a solid few results in his first events as a PGA Tour rookie: Four starts, four made cuts, two top-25s, one top-10.

But whatever his long-term future, I’m not too sanguine about his 2015.

If that sounds crazy, hear me out. Ortiz’ 2014 season, while highly impressive, is an anomaly in his so far young career. The young Mexican’s talent is no joke, but he hasn’t really had a way of putting it together in some time. His sophomore year at North Texas was a special season with three wins, a campaign he followed up with a less stellar junior year and an even drearier senior year where he wasn’t even the team’s best player!

Maybe he finally figured out how to administer his talent in 2014, you say? If so, it was sporadic. The PGA Tour fall seemed fine, and the February-May stretch with two wins and five top-10s on the Web.com Tour proved excellent. But then there was the June-September Web.com drought, where Ortiz sandwiched a win between seven missed cuts and two other non-top 25 showings.

Sporadic doesn’t work as well on the PGA Tour, especially if the moments of struggle occur early and often, which I believe they will for Ortiz in 2015. A series of harrowing results in those crucial first months of good PGA Tour fields can quickly destroy confidence. And at that point the damage to the mental game can be too strong for the talent to make much of a difference in the short term.

This I believe to be the difficult short term path for Ortiz. His schedule is set due to his fully exempt status, but his lack of consistency in using his talent will likely mean a lot more missed cuts and marginal performances than he wants. He’ll be back at Web.com Tour Finals next year, this time fighting to retain his card.

Blayne Barber

blayne-barber

Barber has been no stranger to disqualification, but 2014 was (mostly) about his stellar golf game that netted him two victories and a top-10 showing on the Web.com Tour money list.

The Auburn grad proved his college All-American credentials with his master class in the minor leagues, and he’s started out his rookie year on the big Tour forcefully, with top-10s in his final two events of the fall.

Barber heads into 2015 eighth on the reshuffle list—not exactly Finau territory but in fine position to set up a healthy, full schedule if his results don’t tank in the opening months of the new year.

As for his taking advantage of this potentially packed slate, I’m pretty optimistic. He’s not a prodigal talent, but he’s also assimilated rapidly in Year One on the NGA and Web.com Tours. The hallmark of his game is his tee-to-green accuracy, a tribute that stands to prohibit the major valleys in play that a less refined rookie might find. And he’s accountable and mature, if that counts for anything.

He should make a substantial amount of his cuts and add a few more top-10s and a half-dozen or so top-25s before the year is out. I expect him to be a Rookie of the Year candidate, with his odds of actually winning not that high. 

Justin Thomas

JustinThomas

And finally, we have my pick for PGA Tour Rookie of the Year.

Surprising if you look at his physical characteristics: a non-descript PGA Tour profile photo and an average 5-foot, 10-inch 145-pound frame. Not surprising if you’ve actually followed his career.

The 21-year-old was one of the top amateurs in the country before college, and exceeded expectations at the University of Alabama. Thomas dominated his freshman season, winning four times and capturing honors as National Player of the Year (Nicklaus award). His sophomore campaign was a regression, but still sensational. And his year on the Web.com Tour was predictably brilliant, with a win, seven top-10s and a fifth-place finish on the regular season money list.

He’s the most talented American prospect since Jordan Spieth, and if Thomas were to look to Spieth’s rookie campaign (one-win, nine top-10s and 13 top-25s) as a template for his own maiden PGA Tour season, it wouldn’t be too aspirational.

Thomas’ game isn’t without its flaws—while he hits it long despite his physical build, he is quite inaccurate off the tee—but it is quite polished through years of competing and thriving against top competition.

And saying athletes are hard working at their sporting craft is clichéd, but the anecdote at the end here is ridiculous.

There’s the talent, the work ethic, the previous stellar results on all levels, I just don’t see a way that Thomas doesn’t come out firing as a rookie. I don’t anticipate his maiden season being as good as Spieth’s—maybe something a notch less—but it wouldn’t be shocking if he matched the Texan. And Thomas could easily win his first PGA Tour tournament.

At the very least, he will be the victor in the Rookie of the Year race.

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Kevin's fascination with the game goes back as long as he can remember. He has written about the sport on the junior, college and professional levels and hopes to cover its proceedings in some capacity for as long as possible. His main area of expertise is the PGA Tour, which is his primary focus for GolfWRX. Kevin is currently a student at Northwestern University, but he will be out into the workforce soon enough. You can find his golf tidbits and other sports-related babble on Twitter @KevinCasey19. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: September 2014

3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. Golfraven

    Jan 15, 2015 at 7:18 am

    actually there is a video on pgatour.com covering all those rookies

  2. Golfraven

    Jan 13, 2015 at 2:45 pm

    By just looking through the pictures I would choose Justin Thomas, he got that look of a winner – similar to Jordan Spieth. Will watch out for this guy that season

  3. RAT

    Jan 13, 2015 at 11:29 am

    I really like the new front page set up!!

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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