Opinion & Analysis

Will Rory McIlroy go on another FedEx Cup run?

Published

10 years ago

Aug 18, 2014

It’s FedEx Cup Playoffs time and golf’s main man, Rory McIlroy, also happens to be perched atop the standings as the four-week show commences.

The 25-year-old is yet to capture the PGA Tour’s holy grail but made plenty of noise with inspiring back-to-back victories at the Deutsche Bank and BMW Championships in the 2012 Playoffs.

Of course, the Northern Irishman enters the 2014 proceedings with extraordinary momentum. McIlroy hasn’t lost since early July, triumphing to victory in his last three events, and he also secured the European Tour’s flagship event, the BMW Championship, in late May.

McIlroy’s victory haul includes the year’s final two major championships, just like Tiger Woods in 2006, and his three-event winning streak moving into the Playoffs looks very similar to Woods’ progression in 2006. So you know what McIlroy’s summer to remember compares so well to? Yep, you guessed it: Nick Price in 1994.

All joking aside, Price’s 1994 was a fantastic season, and McIlroy still has time to surpass it and put his credentials on par with Woods’ 2006. But, for the latter, that will need to include a FedEx Cup run even more potent than his 2012 scorched Earth campaign.

Can McIlroy produce something in line with 2012 or better? We wade through the reasons, for and against, to come to a final conclusion.

Pro: McIlroy is Playing the Best Golf of his Life

Not much explanation needed here. Ever since the Open Championship, McIlroy has been the sport’s unstoppable force, and if it wasn’t for a severe but brief case of the Fridays, that streak would extend back to the BMW PGA in late May. As we’ve noted, that’s three consecutive wins and four in eight starts, all against some of the year’s best fields.

McIlroy’s summer form against the world’s top golfers has simply been insane. Considering this recent history, how can he not peg off at least a couple of victories in the Playoffs?

Con: History shows that McIlroy is extremely vulnerable to valleys in his play

McIlroy is no stranger to the concept of extremely volatile golf, and is in fact one of its greatest purveyors. There was the summer of 2011, where McIlroy did absolutely nothing following his U.S. Open triumph. Then came the drought of 2012, where in a two-month span between May and July he barely made a cut. And last year, the Northern Irishman experienced a significant dip for much of his spring and summer.

The depth of McIlroy’s consistency issues has been inexcusable for any world-class player, let alone for Woods’ ridiculous standard.

Unfortunately for McIlroy, the positive portion of his largely boom-or-bust style had never lasted more than three consecutive months heading into 2014. And, as boom or bust would imply, he tends to produce his worst golf after this blast of excellent form. That’s pretty alarming considering we are rapidly approaching the three-month anniversary of his BMW PGA win.

In that case then, history suggests a massive dip in McIlroy’s form very soon. That would mean goodbye epic season, hello end-of-year mediocrity.

Pro: McIlroy is a new man in 2014

Then again, past tendencies aren’t always a harbinger of future play.

For McIlroy, one of the most exciting developments of 2014 is the absence of the severe poor performance that used to be his nemesis. After missing five cuts in both 2012 and 2013, McIlroy failed to advance to the weekend just once so far in his 18 starts. And all 17 of those finishes were top-25s.

Even before the 25-year-old’s recent run he was in the midst of a successful, if quite unheralded 2014. The results included a whopping eight top-10s in half a season, even if a few of them were admittedly backdoor.

So while McIlroy has retained his ability to unleash an unbeleiveably high level of play, he’s rid himself, for now, of his shockingly low lulls. That bodes well for the Playoffs.

Yes, the three-month expiration date is nearing, but it might no longer be applicable. McIlroy appears no longer in danger of losing his form completely after a few sensational months.

Con: McIlroy is physically and emotionally worn down

This isn’t speculation, McIlroy admitted as much in his presser following the PGA Championship’s final round.

With the crunched nature of the FedEx Cup Playoffs schedule—four events in four weeks—fatigue becomes an overwhelming issue for those who participate throughout, as Tiger Woods so eloquently put last year.

Sure, McIlroy benefits from a week of rest following the PGA, but his brain and body will probably still be on the fritz for this month-long deluge of golf. And even if he skips an event, that still leaves three tournaments in four weeks for an already worn down superstar.

If McIlroy can’t recover his previous energy, he might be in for a rude awakening during the Playoffs.

Pro: McIlroy thrives at season’s end

The late summer/fall portion of the calendar has been kind to McIlroy throughout his career.

He emerged from his post-2011 U.S. Open rut in September with a string of five consecutive top-four finishes, including a victory. Then there were the Playoff wins in 2012. And last season McIlroy was mired in poor form until August hit and the top-10s started flowing, with another end-of-year victory in December.

As we noted, it’s not always wise to base competitors’ future on their past tendencies. But we only have evidence of McIlroy nixing his most troubling habit. Nothing yet suggests McIlroy’s tendency to end his campaigns with fire is soon to cease.

Until the results prove otherwise, McIlroy is highly adept at great late season golf, and that should carry over into the 2014 FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Con: A lack of motivation

Following the PGA Championship, McIlroy did state that it was a big goal of his to win the FedEx Cup. But we have to wonder whether his thirst for victory has dipped a tad in the short term.

We question not as an indictment of McIlroy, but rather as an ode to the situation’s context. He’s absolutely 2014’s player of the year. He’s clearly the best golfer on the planet. He’s won two consecutive major championships, the most important tournaments in the sport. He’s unanimously viewed as the game’s future leader.

With all of that, we can understand if McIlroy were to become a bit complacent in the coming months. And when complacency sets in, form dips.

Verdict

It’s hard to accomplish what McIlroy did (or better) in the 2012 Playoffs, even in his current form.

That being said, only the concern of McIlroy’s fatigue could potentially scare me away from picking him for an inspired run. And it’s not enough to ignore the potency of all the positive signs.

I wouldn’t pencil McIlroy in for three or four consecutive victories, but something on the level of his 2012 showing is in order.

My guess is that McIlroy only gets one win but garners very high finishes in his other appearances. And in the end that will be enough for the FedEx Cup crown.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

Published

4 days ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

Published

4 days ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide.

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory.

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second.

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

Richard Bland
Jon Rahm
Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

Abraham Ancer
Graeme McDowell
Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

Bryson DeChambeau
Joaquin Niemann
Dean Burmester

Putting

Cameron Smith
Louis Oosthuizen
Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

1 week ago

Apr 18, 2024

Terry Koehler

Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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