Opinion & Analysis

Want to go lower? The stats say you need an earlier tee time

Published

10 years ago

Aug 25, 2014

Recently, I was researching data for some of my PGA Tour clients on tee times (late vs. early) and scoring average. Is there a correlation, I wondered. I assumed there was, and knew that the results would be applicable to golfers of all handicap levels. Everyone could use these findings to help them refine their on-course and practice strategies and improve their scores.

The PGA Tour defines an “early round” as any round where the player tees off in the first half of the set of tee times for that day, and one of the clear results was that a player’s average score is typically better in early rounds than later rounds.

For the last five seasons, the early rounds scoring average has been 0.163 strokes better than the late rounds scoring average. While 0.163 strokes may not seem like much of a difference, it translates to roughly 20 spots on the PGA Tour Money List.

So, why are the late rounds worse than the early rounds? My theory is that it comes down to two different factors.

No. 1: Wind

The wind tends to pick up around noon and is usually at its lowest speed at the break of dawn. Here’s a chart showing the measured wind speeds in Orlando, Fla., on March 21st of this year. I picked this date arbitrarily to illustrate what the typical wind speeds look like during the day.

Last year I did some statistical research on Tour players and wind. What I found was that once the wind speed reached greater than 12 mph, the scores started to rise noticeably. The chart above shows that the wind increased to more than 12 mph around 11 a.m., but actually became consistently more than 12 mph around 2 p.m.

I also did research on players who became more or less effective when the wind picked up. When the wind speeds rise, I found that score averages also rise regardless of the player, but I wanted to check out the players who were the least affected by the wind and the players that were most affected by the wind and see what they had in common.

Some of the best wind players include:

Stuart Appleby
Brian Harman
Chris Kirk
Matt Jones

Some of the worst wind players include:

John Daly
Keegan Bradley
Bill Haas
Hunter Mahan

While there were some very good wind players who grew up in windy areas like Texas, Scotland or Australia, there were also plenty of poor wind players from those areas as well. That tells me that growing up in a windy area does not guarantee that a golfer will be effective in the wind. There were main areas of the game that the good wind players had in common, however, which were good play from 75-to-125 yards and with short game shots around the green.

My conclusions to those findings is that the wind makes it more difficult for golfers to find the green in regulation, and therefore golfers need to be able to get up and down with more regularity. It is certainly worth noting that big winds can take bad shots, specifically bad tee shots, and push them farther offline. That creates more third or fourth shots from 75-to-125 yards.

No. 2: Putting

There is the theory that it is more difficult to make putts later in the day because of the spike marks and foot imprints.

I did not know if that theory had any merit, so I started looking at the scoring averages of individual players in the early and late rounds over the years. I was most interested in the players who saw the largest regression from the early round scoring average to the late round scoring average and vice versa.

What I found was that the players who had the largest regression in the early rounds usually tend to struggle in three areas of the game:

Approach shots from 175-to-225 yards
Shots from 250-to-275 yards (most likely 3-wood play)
Par-4 Scoring Average

This indicates that golfers who tee off in the morning are playing the course on an even playing field because on Tour, shots from 175-to-225 yards have the largest correlation to success of any individual part of the game. And par-4 scoring averages correlates much more strongly to success on Tour than par-3 or par-5 scoring average. I am not sure what the shots from 250-to-275 yards indicate at this time.

The players with the largest regression in the late rounds, however, tend to struggle in these four very opposite parts of the game:

Putting from 3-to-10 feet
3-Putt Percentage
Strokes Gained – Putting
Shots from 100-to-125 yards

The approach shots from 100-to-125 yards goes along with the research I have done on the better wind players on Tour. And the putting from 3-to-10 feet and 3-putt percentage indicates that the theory that you will make less putts in the afternoon does have some merit to it.

One of the other things my research has shown is that the golfers who rank the best in Strokes Gained – Putting tend to gain the most strokes on the more difficult greens like Pebble Beach and Riviera. Therefore, it does not surprise me that players who rank poorly in Strokes Gained – Putting would struggle more in the afternoon because the green conditions are more difficult.

Here’s some bullet points of what I think the average player can learn from my study:

You’re likely to shoot lower scores early in the morning, so do not be afraid to be aggressive in going after some flags and hitting driver instead of laying up.
If you have an afternoon tee time, check to see what the wind speed is like. If it is more than 12 mph, you may want to put a little extra time on hitting wedge shots and short game shots around the green before you tee off.
If you have an afternoon tee time, you may want to spend a little more time on the practice green to better help adjust to the worsened green conditions.

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Rich Hunt

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

36 Comments

Cecilia

Aug 30, 2014 at 3:33 pm

HT

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leftright

Aug 29, 2014 at 8:40 am

I don’t like to dew sweep and want no part of the golf course early. I also cannot get loose when I play early, especially if it’s cold. I’ll keep my mid-day tee times. Only play early if you have to.
Speaking of statisticians, I work with a guy who is a Bio-Statistics PhD and he wrote a couple of baseball books. He is really into baseball and knows a lot about the players and obviously their stats. His book says Tony Gwynn (recently died of cancer) was the best hitter when he gathered all his data and crunched it. I’m not trying to start a debate but I thought Rich might chime in on this if he is familiar with Dr Schell.

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Scooter McGavin

Aug 29, 2014 at 7:12 am

I like how my questions get ignored or not published, when I ask about the margin of error with these numbers. Probably because the .163 strokes difference between early and late rounds lies within the margin of error, which means there is literally no story here. As a “statistician” the author would know this, and was obviously trying to create a story from nothing.

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DT

Aug 27, 2014 at 11:53 am

What % of amateurs actually hit the range before there round at all, never mind before an early round? Thousands of rounds of data and the best difference is just over 2 tenths of a stroke.

The margin is so slim for the PGA tour, that’s after a proper warm up and stretch. Amateurs are lose by the third or fourth hole, move often then not starting with bogeys, doubles or worse.

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Rich

Aug 27, 2014 at 8:37 am

Really? So we’re talking about a quarter of a shot at worst right? Over analyse much! Keep reading your articles to see if one might be worth it but still haven’t found one. Hit the ball, walk, find it, hit it again. It’s that simple.

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John

Aug 27, 2014 at 1:03 am

Ok, it’s time a senior weighed in here. I’m 58, single digit capper in pretty decent shape. I swim and hike. However, the difference in my creaky body between 7am and 10am is significant. These days the later in the day I play, the better I play. My body just feels better with a few hours to oil up.

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- MHendon
  
  Aug 28, 2014 at 4:37 pm
  
  Same here johnny boy.
  
  Reply Report comment
MHendon

Aug 27, 2014 at 12:51 am

Yeah I’m sure early is better for most people but not me. It’s hard to play well when you’re still asleep. lol

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larrybud

Aug 26, 2014 at 2:22 pm

A couple of things were left out:
1) Greens are probably more receptive on average in the morning before the heat of the day starts to bake them out
2) If these stats include Sunday rounds, the pressure of a later tee time probably has some influence.

It’d be interesting to see stats just for thursday and friday.

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GermanBallHunter

Aug 26, 2014 at 10:42 am

The reason why I play better in the morning compared to later in the afternoon is simply because my mind is fresh and less distructed from the day. In the morning I weak up and am totally focused on my game. I head with my coffee straight to the range, hit some balls and I am ready to tee off.

Late tee times usually means that I was working or did my weekend shoppings before.

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Captain Oblivious

Aug 26, 2014 at 9:45 am

From Dave Pelz:

“What is the lumpy doughnut?
(Fig – pages 33,35) The lumpy doughnut is the congregation of footprints within a radius of 6 feet from the hole. The last 12 inches is almost footprint free and form the doughnut’s hole. This creates a volcanic like entrance ramp that can have significant impact on a ball’s line relative to its speed. The average 500+ footprints a foursome makes in the green take up to 2 hours to spring back up to normal shape. Fresh footprints are to the golf ball like a curb is to a pedestrian crossing the street… in other words, your ball can “trip” on its way to the hole. ”

It amazes me how well the final groups do on the pro tours. They area at quite a disadvantage, IMO.

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Nigel

Aug 26, 2014 at 9:29 am

As someone who almost exclusively plays pre-8am rounds, I feel that there is a serious third factor: pace of play. I realize that it is possible to have a reasonable pace of play later in the day, but nothing gets me in a good groove like knowing that there is no one (or very few people) in front of me, and that I can play at my own (relatively quick) pace. I usually play my best golf when I can get around in 3.5 hours or less.

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- Dave C
  
  Aug 26, 2014 at 1:23 pm
  
  TOTALLY AGREE! At least a point for us amateurs.
  
  Reply Report comment
Nick

Aug 26, 2014 at 8:59 am

While I will say that greens are better when freshly mowed and not chewed up by spikes, the truth is the scoring average is better in earlier tee times because the players are better, not just the conditions. Players that tee off early usually have regular tee times and therefore are regular players, as opposed to say a guy playing his first round in 6 months. That guy usually isn’t in the 7:05 group. Not saying you won’t find lots of good sticks later, but I think, the averages favor the early birds. I bet the statistical significance of the scoring average would evaporate if controlled for handicap of player.

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- Captain Oblivious
  
  Aug 26, 2014 at 9:57 am
  
  How can you say “the statistical significance of the scoring average would disappear” when his study was conducted with the very best golfers on the planet?
  
  I rarely play early morning because I prefer to walk the course. However, when I do, I notice a favorable difference partly due to less wind, but mainly to the better condition of the greens. In the afternoon I have to deal with far more unrepaired ball marks, (which are much more easily repaired immediately than 2 hours later by me), many more scuff marks where some people cannot find the energy to pick up their feet when they walk and many, many more footprints.
  
  Reply Report comment
Early

Aug 26, 2014 at 12:43 am

“you may want to put a little extra time on hitting wedge shots and short game shots around the green before you tee off.”

How about practicing to hit worm-burner bullets à la Lee Trevino so that it gets under the wind and rolls for miles, and also thinking about may be replacing the high-launching clubs with lower launching ones?

“struggle more in the afternoon because the green conditions are more difficult.”
How about the fact that pressure also has a lot to do with it, and not just green conditions?
I don’t see anybody looking at the stats of the guys at the bottom 1/3 of the leaderboard on the 2nd day, as they are about to get cut and go home. Telling me they don’t count? The stats are skewed if you don’t count them in

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- Richie Hunt
  
  Aug 26, 2014 at 9:11 am
  
  On Thursday and Friday, everybody gets an early or late tee time on Tour regardless of score. So, if you tee off late on Thursday and take the lead after that day, you have an early tee time on Friday regardless of your position.
  
  I actually checked the late vs. early tee times for round 1 vs. round 2 vs. round 3 vs. round 4 and the stats were nearly identical. So for the sake of brevity, I just used the total early vs. late round data.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Scooter McGavin
    
    Aug 26, 2014 at 11:39 pm
    
    What is the margin of error for late vs early round averages?
    
    Reply Report comment
Early

Aug 26, 2014 at 12:38 am

Please lets not compare the Tour stats to our, menial, public-course type stats, hmmmm? Because they don’t relate.

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- Richie Hunt
  
  Aug 26, 2014 at 9:13 am
  
  So, are you saying that the green conditions do not get worse and the wind will not pick up later in the day?
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Driving range closed
    
    Aug 26, 2014 at 9:23 am
    
    No, the difference being that public courses don’t usually have the driving range open an hour before the first tee time !
    
    Reply Report comment
paul

Aug 25, 2014 at 11:42 pm

For me the difference can be several strokes. I love playing at 6am and being done before its hot out. Greens are slowed down and putting is much easier. I suck on fast greens cause I am to aggressive putting.

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Paul Christianson

Aug 25, 2014 at 10:48 pm

Good stuff. I’d be interested to see the results of just the first two rounds of tournament play. This would allow us to control for more variables and ensure that we are taking a proper sample. Once the cut is made, some more variables come into play that are harder to control for. Is it possible to just measure the 1st and 2nd rounds?

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- Richie Hunt
  
  Aug 26, 2014 at 9:15 am
  
  I looked at the data for each of the rounds and it’s very similar across the board. So, I just used the total round data for the sake of brevity.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Scooter McGavin
    
    Aug 26, 2014 at 11:40 pm
    
    What is the margin of error for late vs early round averages?
    
    Reply Report comment
TR1PTIK

Aug 25, 2014 at 10:36 pm

I prefer early tee times when I can get them – 7am if I can, but definitely before 9. I’ve found that I feel more comfortable in the mornings and tend to relax a little more because the temps are cooler, and unless it’s just nasty the scenery and lighting conditions seem to be better in the mornings which helps me stay positive. It’s not that I can’t score well later in the day, but it definitely requires more effort.

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Joe Calcio

Aug 25, 2014 at 9:21 pm

Great article and research Rich. Very interesting.

I’d be curious if you looked at whether the results hold up when only looking at Thurs/Fri rounds pre-cut?

Part of me wonders if pressure of trying hold a lead or move up the board on Sat/Sun has any impact. But these are the pros, right? They don’t feel pressure!

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- Jimmy Jimmy
  
  Aug 27, 2014 at 5:41 pm
  
  I wonder if the difference is even more than just a tenth of a shot. If Saturday and Sunday are included in the figures above, then the leaders (presumably playing better golf cause they’re in the lead) go out at the end of the day while those playing more poorly go out earlier. The guys that aren’t playing as good are being given a boost, resulting in better scores than the leaders.
  
  Reply Report comment
Martin

Aug 25, 2014 at 8:59 pm

It’s not better for me, I live in the north and am not a good enough putter to putt on greens covered in dew for 7 holes the 2 holes while it burns off and then a third speed when they are dry.

I can count on one hand the number of really great rounds I have played before 9:00 AM.

My preference is the crack of 10:00.

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Kristian

Aug 25, 2014 at 7:15 pm

For me, early tee times often have me playing slightly worse than daytime rounds purely for the fact that I get to short-warmup jitters. During the day, I’m awake, fed, and feeling energized. In the morning, I usually feel a bit tired, I’ve not always eaten a full meal, and I don’t always have time to really warm up. That difference usually results in me standing over the ball on the first few holes with an iron or a wedge in my hand having a n inner dialogue with myself about not making a mis-hit.

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- Happyday_J
  
  Aug 25, 2014 at 8:17 pm
  
  Adam Scott had a similar problem and took the advice from a veteran tour player, always wake up 3 hours before your tee time.
  
  I do the same, and if it is a tournament, I will work out and go for a run before hand. That way, my blood has been pumping, I’ve loosened up from my sleep and when I get the range an hour before, I am ready to start warming up and preparing for the round of golf. Allowing to be in attacking mode the first few holes and not be cautious b.c I am not awake.
  
  Can make for early 4 am wake up calls, but hey, my motto, we all have plenty of time to sleep when we are dead, dont waste time while we are alive ;).
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Early
    
    Aug 26, 2014 at 12:36 am
    
    HappydayJ:
    
    Yeah? Have you ever played the first tee time of the morning on a public course? The driving range ain’t open, man. it’s usually still dark as you tee the ball up. So how do you expect to “warm up”???
    
    Reply Report comment
    - Happyday_J
      
      Aug 26, 2014 at 12:28 pm
      
      I have hit balls in the dark on numerous occasions, a warm up is a warm up, get the motion of the swing down, loosen up and make solid contact. Believe it or not, based on how you hit it, you can get a good idea where its going, shape and trajectory.
      
      Reply Report comment
    - Happyday_J
      
      Aug 26, 2014 at 12:29 pm
      
      Sorry, missed the point of the range not being open, in that case, I have a couple spare balls in the bag that are hit-aways, and go to the range and hit them. There is always a way.
      
      Reply Report comment
Scooter McGavin

Aug 25, 2014 at 5:20 pm

For the Late vs. Early round averages, what is the margin of error?

Reply Report comment

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

3 days ago

Apr 18, 2024

Terry Koehler

Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

Published

3 days ago

Apr 18, 2024

GolfWRX Staff

In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

6 days ago

Apr 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.

Past Winners at Harbour Town

2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
2019: CT Pan (-12)
2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
2016: Branden Grace (-9)
2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
Tom Hoge (+1.27)
Corey Conners (+1.16)
Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

Brice Garnett (88.8%)
Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
Brian Harman (+1.89)
Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
Taylor Moore (+1.02)
Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
Corey Conners (+69.0%)
Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.

Course History over past 24 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
Cam Davis (+2.05)
J.T. Poston (+1.69)
Justin Rose (+1.68)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

Shane Lowry
Russell Henley
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Corey Conners
Wyndham Clark
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Matt Fitzpatrick
Cameron Young
Ludvig Aberg

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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