Opinion & Analysis

Not making the college golf cut

Published

10 years ago

Jul 1, 2014

Golf participation for the Millennial demographic (ages 18-to-34), has decreased 30 percent in the past 20 years, and the remedy to bring the game back to us remains largely unsolved.

I relish the hot summer days when I’d bang range balls for a few hours, play nine holes and caddy during the afternoon. Life was good, life was golf. My circle of friends lived a similar lifestyle, played junior tournaments and some of us moved onto the college ranks. And then something funny happened. The game tied to our personal being somehow separated as we started careers in different cities. My golfing buddies and I aren’t alone.

The problem begins in the transition between high school and college. In 2012, 152,725 students played competitively in high school, yet only 12,147 students played varsity college golf that year, according to scholarshipstats.com. If you are part of the lucky 8 percent playing golf for a college team, you play for free and get handed school-logoed Pro V1’s. But what happens to those not on varsity who are forced to pay for their own golf, find transportation and courses that actually welcome their business? Some students attend one of the 100 or so universities that have courses on campus, but for many, the clubs don’t make it to the dorm room and students drop the game temporarily.

On the bright side, there has been a significant uptick in number of collegiate club golf teams from 50 to over 200 in the past year alone. Many of these club golf teams now compete in student-led weekend tournaments in the National Collegiate Club Golf Association (NCCGA). The organization takes a proactive role—a grassroots effort of sorts—in recruiting and working with students to start school-recognized and funded club golf programs off the ground. While the NCCGA has carved out a niche for competitive non-varsity golfers, it struggles to assist more recreational players or students brand new to the game.

At Michigan State’s club golf fair in the fall of 2011, nearly 500 students signed up with an interest in joining the club, but only a few dozen ultimately remain on the competitive club team roster. The gap could be filled by finding a solution to keep more of these fringe college golfers in the game by getting PGA professionals to teach lessons on campus, helping them improve and stay interested.

The problem—specifically with Millennial golfer participation—begins in college but exacerbates as a young professional.

“Consistently keeping up a golf game has been very difficult since moving to Manhattan,” says Ryan Down, a 26 year-old former Yale varsity golfer. “Transportation is the main issue: most people don’t have cars in the city, which sometimes means two trains and a cab to get to a course. The other difficulty is the lack of availability of decent courses that aren’t constantly packed with weekend golfers. All in all, it can easily be an 8 hour commitment including the ride to and from the course.”

With often 60+ hour workweeks and a lack of transportation options, golf is just not feasible on weekends like it was back in high school. Young professional golfers in cities such as New York, Boston, DC, San Francisco and Chicago face serious barriers in making it out the links on any regular basis.

I live in Boston where I can’t afford to own a parking spot, so I’m left stranded if I haven’t secured one of the few public spaces before 7 p.m., thereby making playing golf after work a serious challenge. Improving or sharpening my game is a thing of the past. For the modern young professional, playing golf requires planning, commitment from friends and some serious dollars if you’re looking to play a decent track with the rest of the masses on summer weekends.

Is golf officially dead for college students and young professionals? Does the industry just need to wait until we turn 40, own a house with a white fence and join the local country club? The answer is no, however, the industry needs to make changes in becoming more relevant to younger consumers. The explosive growth of the NCCGA proves the demand for competitive golf for single-digit handicap players at the non-varsity collegiate level.

So why is nobody extending competitive golf into the young adult space? As a former D3 golfer who plays twice a month, I have zero business spending $125 trying to shoot 74 and qualify for the state amateur. That said, I’d love to compete against other serious golfers around my age in a more relaxed environment.

Theories exist — including foot golf, 15-inch cups and actually using media effectively — to help Millennials keep golf fun and accessible, but it doesn’t seem to be enough. If you have thoughts on ways to engage the next generation of golfers, shoot a note to [email protected] or better yet, tweet to @MikeBelkin11.

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Mike Belkin

Mike Belkin is a Co-Founder of Nextgengolf & Director of College Golfer Happiness. Mike played varsity golf at Amherst College, currently resides in Boston, and is passionate about growing the game for millennials. Contact Mike on Twitter @MikeBelkin11 or [email protected]

25 Comments

Tom

Jul 7, 2014 at 10:38 pm

You’ve brought up some good points and as a single digit who didn’t start playing until I was in my late twenties I have to disagree with the premise that another person or organization should be involved in motivating the “latent” 12m+ population. Unfortunately golf is very hard and time consuming. IMHO this is a cultural issue that runs deep in the “millennial” population – I’m not a sociologist but I think there needs to be a more comprehensive study of what is driving this population. I took up golf because of the challenge and because I wanted to play. It was a singular, individual decision. Even if you motivate 10% of that 12m you’re referencing to play you’re only replacing the losses from the older generation. Socially and culturally things have shifted and the CC lifestyle along with 4.5 hr rounds on weekends (assuming you live somewhere close to a golf course) just aren’t feasible for the Millennial populations. Forgive me if I’m coming across in a negative light. I respect your article and the points you raise but this may be a problem that can’t be solved. It may just be part of the natural expansion/contraction life cycle that everything goes through. I think we should question the question – why should we grow golf?

Reply Report comment
Peter Kratsios

Jul 7, 2014 at 8:06 am

First and foremost, I’d like to say that NextGenGolf and NCCGA are the types of initiatives the golf industry needs in their effort to grow participation amongst millennials. I too played collegiate golf at a D3 college, which provided me many benefits that my friends were unable to take advantage of. However, it were those benefits that have made me realize how unrealistic it is to play competitively at age 25 in local tournaments. Events range from $125-200, which is a steep price for someone simply looking to enjoy a competitive round of golf.

I look forward to seeing how these organizations develop in the future.

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Dave

Jul 6, 2014 at 10:37 pm

Great picture of South Station in Boston. That picture could have been of me a few weeks ago.

Reply Report comment
Neil

Jul 4, 2014 at 6:25 pm

It’s definitely a time issue with me, having two young kids; I practice way more than I get out.
Hopefully one or both them are interested in getting out on the course with Dad as that will
increase my course time ten fold.

Reply Report comment
Bobby

Jul 3, 2014 at 3:19 pm

Great article, Mike. I never thought that I would be playing golf regularly in college, but being on a club golf team allows me to play competitively while still focusing on academics and maintaining a healthy social life. Practices are optional, tournaments are held twice per semester, and no classes are missed. Playing club golf certainly helps student golfers get the most out of their college experience.

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Peter Klemperer

Jul 3, 2014 at 12:34 pm

Great article. Club sports are a great opportunity for college students to get involved in athletics without the pressure or time commitment of varsity sports. I didn’t own a car in college but the team provided great opportunities for group training and rides races all over the midwest. I’m sure the same thing could be replicated with golf.

As a younger professional having recently moved to Northern California I find the courses plentiful but generally packed. I tend to play my 18-hole rounds as early as possible to avoid the crowds or seek out par-3/9-hole courses for after work golf.

Reply Report comment
- Mike Belkin
  
  Jul 3, 2014 at 12:43 pm
  
  Thanks Peter. Going out and playing early is way to do it so long as you can get some friends to join you! I used to play a Newton Commonwealth, a city course in Boston, with may dad on weekends and tee off at 5:15, we’d be off the course by 8am and have the whole day free (with a brief nap, of course).
  
  Reply Report comment
Allen Freeman

Jul 3, 2014 at 11:00 am

Speaking of the costs of playing in tournaments, check out the petition to the USGA to make playing in national championships more affordable: http://chn.ge/1xu0WNX

Reply Report comment
- Mike Belkin
  
  Jul 3, 2014 at 11:10 am
  
  Very interesting, Allen. As a young professional I personally I struggle more with the time to keep my game sharp and having access to places to practice and play. The median greens fee across courses nationwide is $26 so that $100+ entries fee (albeit at high-end) courses is certainly not cheap.
  
  Reply Report comment
WarrenPeace

Jul 3, 2014 at 10:41 am

Book time at the local Golftech and work on your game- they have simulators and instructors. That’s what I would do if I couldn’t get out to play regularly. Practice more-play less if inconvenient to get to a course. That way when you do play- it’s enjoyable to watch the progress you’ve made.

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AJ

Jul 3, 2014 at 9:45 am

Again, I think this is a real problem with the USA sports model in general. Looking outside in (from the UK) it would seem that once you cease to play any competitive sport, the general infrastructure isn’t there to enable meaningful amateur play in any field.

My point here is that there is no established organised amateur sport, and this extends to golf. Basically, once you are out of your high school / university sports team, you don’t play that game competitively, ever again.

Is that right or have I got that completely wrong?

In Europe certainly, if you don’t make the cut as a professional in any given sport, you can join a local club and play competitive soccer/rugby/cricket for as long as your body will allow, and there is always a level for you.

It’s the same with golf. In general clubs are more accessible, more affordable and there is a whole heap more organised competitive golf for amateurs. I play at least one competitive round each week, usually two or more in the summer (mixture of medal play and match play).

I think we have it pretty sweet over here, and I speak as somebody who lives in central London yet can still afford to be a member of a top 100 course and get there pretty easily by car or public transport. I had the chance to move to NYC a few years ago and the prospect of only playing golf a few times a year really did put me off. There was simply no way I could afford to be a member of a decent private members club over there like I can here.

Reply Report comment
- Mike Belkin
  
  Jul 3, 2014 at 11:15 am
  
  Great points, AJ. College golfers in the states–be it on varsity of NCCGA club teams–have organized methods to actually play competitive golf. But once they enter the working world, and especially in major cities, it’s nearly impossible to find solid competitive golf outside of USGA & State Am like tournies that are pretty expensive to begin with. I agree with you that NYC is the most difficult for young professionals to play golf competitively, let alone just keeping the game sharp. I am always thinking about ways the industry can become more friendly to young professionals to help keep them in the game. It’s the future and the golf needs to innovate here!
  
  Reply Report comment
  - AJ
    
    Jul 4, 2014 at 6:38 am
    
    Mike, that is very interesting to hear. Example from the UK: this weekend I am playing in a Men’s Open event (typically for handicaps 10 and below) which costs £50, includes 36 holes and all food for the day. It’s on a Saturday so working guys can play. There will be a scratch prize and a handicap prize so it’s fair. UK handicaps are also more tightly regulated because we play so much competition golf and handicaps aren’t adjusted unless in a competition.
    
    Most golf clubs in the UK will host such an event (be it individual, pairs, mixed golf) once a year at a minimum.
    
    In August I will play in a further one day 36 hole event and two separate 72 hole events (with a halfway cut), all around the £50 mark to enter and providing great competitive golf.
    
    I see no reason this model can’t be adopted in the states?
    
    Reply Report comment
DoWhat

Jul 3, 2014 at 9:14 am

How does a 15 inch cup make the game more accessible?

Oh, wait. Maybe the dude can park his car there.

Reply Report comment
- Mike Belkin
  
  Jul 3, 2014 at 11:19 am
  
  We actually hosted a big cup tournament at Newton Commonwealth, a local Boston course. We had a nice mix of somewhat competitive to fairly novice golfers attend the event. https://nextgengolf.org/boston/social-and-competitive-events/ The ability to play golf in a new way helped bring folks out the course who ordinarily wouldn’t have played.
  
  To your point, however, do 15 inch cups make the game more accessible? No. It was actually more expensive to play that day. That said, more people came out at least!
  
  Reply Report comment
Gibbyfan

Jul 3, 2014 at 9:07 am

Sorry for the confusion with your article, but what was the point you were trying to get across? Is it that you are not able to play when living one of the major cities? That you chose to live in a densely populated area after graduating college? What did you expect? Did you think right down the street next to your corporate office was the company funded Donald Ross designed club where everyone would cut out at 5 PM and hit the links? You made the choice to live there. There are trade offs with living in major cities; golf is one of them.
As for competition, there are plenty of outlets for competition Golf Channel Tour comes to mind, your local/regional golf associations run a number of events, you are part of one of the largest internet GOLF forums. There is golf to be played, YOU are the one that needs to make the choice whether it is important to ignore the bars on Friday, Saturday nights.
I mean heaven forbid, you drive out to the burbs where you can practice and play. If you are 20 years old and older it is time to grow up and decide what is important to you. I’m a professional that works a lot,a parent, live near a large metro area, and I golf 2x a week from May -August. Maybe the ” Millennials” that are too perplexed with living in the overcrowded city and just can’t figure out how to keep their game in shape hit the net and blog how our system is broken. Or, you could get into a cab, take a train, move out of the city where you can afford to live, park a car, and golf, or, as many of your Millennials have chosen to do, move back in with their parents.

Reply Report comment
- Mike Belkin
  
  Jul 3, 2014 at 11:40 am
  
  I wish that my friends in Boston enjoyed golf enough to take public transportation after work and play nine at Fresh Pond in Cambridge. The fact of the matter, however, is that playing golf for most young professionals is just top of mind or a high enough priority to be a regular activity. But don’t take my word, let’s look at Project M from the National Golf Foundation: http://ngfdashboard.clubnewsmaker.org/map7zilj8gqvvn6t1exxr4?a=5&p=2341869&t=410871
  
  The fact that you suggest that young adults should pass up a job in the city to live in the burbs where they can play golf more easily demonstrates that you are completely out of touch with the Millennial generation. Project M looks at the “latent demand” or 12M+ Millennial golfers who are interested in playing but on the fence. If the golf industry projected your attitude toward this generation, you can kiss those 12M golfers goodbye.
  
  It’s not easy getting good jobs these days, and America’s best and brightest college graduates will continue move to Boston, NYC, SF, DC and dozens of other metropolitan areas. If the industry does not innovate–and I mean take progressive steps to get young adults playing their courses–America’s finest will continue to keep golf on the backburner.
  
  If anything comes out of this article and conversation, it is to open up the eyes to all in golf–the PGA of America & the Professionals, USGA, the TOUR, course owners and operators–that the industry can’t sit back on our heels and let this generation leave their clubs behind. We need to take proactive measures to get people on the course. Opening up the cash register and expecting people to come out and play won’t cut it forever.
  
  Let’s innovate together and make golf relevant again for our Millennial Golfers.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Gibbyfan
    
    Jul 3, 2014 at 2:11 pm
    
    To begin, thank you for the response. I see that this is something that you are passionate about. Seeing that this is your profession and working with Nextgengolf. First, your job takes you to Boston metro area. Could you do your job if you lived in an area where you could commute into Boston? My guess is yes. BUT, you chose to live in the city where costs are high, parking is a premium, and you lack some green areas like golf courses. So, it is a little unfair when you imply it’s not fair or you ( Millennials) are not being catered to by the golf industry.
    Chicago ( which I live near) has a number of park district/ public courses within the city limits. Are they type of course where you want to travel to and spend your money? That is for the individual to decide. But if keeping your game sharp is important to your age group, then the answer is yes. Will getting there be easy? Doubtful. That is the tradeoff of living a metro area. You are going to have to make some concessions.
    In my earlier post, golf is there to be had. If golf is that important, then the Millennials will need to decide how they are going to play. Golf can be economical. I play at the same course and they give me the twilight rate almost anytime I play. Why? Because I am a returning customer. Some golf clubs and courses are hurting for play. Here is a link to the public courses that are around Boston http://www.golflink.com/golf-courses/city.aspx?dest=Boston+MA. I am sure that one will meet your needs as a practice site or place where your group can play on a routine basis. As the song goes ” you can’t always get what you want. But if you try sometimes well you might find you get what you need.”
    
    Reply Report comment
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Straightdriver235

Jul 2, 2014 at 9:17 pm

Mr. Belkin is correct here. I played some college golf, but as grades got more important, and law school loomed, it became a more special occasion to play. Because I did public service law, and now teach at the undergraduate level, I never made enough money or needed the contacts to consider club memberships. I’ve always been a public course player since becoming an adult… I resent, however, as does Mr. Down, the idea of moving from something pretty competitive, to struggling around waiting on six around rounds near weekend golfers. I miss the competition, the camaraderie of a few close expert and knowledgeable golfing friends, and more associates from younger days of competing. City clubs need to seek out young professionals and cultivate them, but so many seem caught up with the white picket fence, real estate on the course type of mentality. I lived in a major NE city and for ten years just couldn’t even find a public course where I could store my clubs at safely that I might take public transit to. If you can solve this problem you are a genius. It’s not my baby, but I have reflected the same sort of thoughts… and with great regrets. As I grow near retirement now, I am an excellent golfer who is a complete loner. My game is entirely within myself, my rounds are exercises in self control and meditation. I’m eventually heading to France where my wife is from and all but giving up the game. For now, fortunately my university is one with its own course, and it is often not too crowded, but golf clearly now lacks the social foundations I grew up with. I have not had a “golfing friend” in many years. I have given to golf, but I do not feel it has given back so well… still I love her. I’m a liberal, and see it as a capitalist problem in so many ways, but so many golfers are not neo-Marxists, and it makes no sense to them. Golf put to the excesses of the free markets only stretches so far… to cultivate serious play from lifetime committed players who might happen to be middle class and don’t see golf as a tax write off, a different model is necessary.

Reply Report comment
- Mike Belkin
  
  Jul 3, 2014 at 11:44 am
  
  Very thoughtful response here. Can you please expand on what you mean by “a capitalist problem in so many ways”?
  
  Reply Report comment
SW

Jul 2, 2014 at 9:05 pm

Boohoo. Move to the South or SouthWest, why dontcha?

Reply Report comment
- Mike Belkin
  
  Jul 3, 2014 at 11:46 am
  
  I started my career out in Buckhead, GA where it was DEFINITELY easier to get around and play. That said, it was my first year after graduating college in a totally new city so getting acquainted to my job, meeting a totally new friend group, and budgeting all got in the way. That said, I did manage to play once every other week.
  
  Reply Report comment
Phil C.

Jul 2, 2014 at 7:19 pm

Prioritize the player to player competition aspect of the game and let match play format take center stage. Let it be the primary format on TV, that we teach to new players, and that we play with our friends on the weekends.

Also, Break up the match play of 18 holes into 3 separate 6-hole sets, with the winner decided after a player has won 2 sets.

Reply Report comment
- Mike Belkin
  
  Jul 3, 2014 at 11:48 am
  
  Competition is a key ingredient to getting folks interested. Look at the explosive growth of PGA Junior Leagues which anticipates having 14,000 kids involved this year, nearly double y/o/y growth. They wear jerseys and play team golf against other clubs.
  
  Reply Report comment

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla

Published

2 hours ago

May 13, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.

The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old.

Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades.

Valhalla Golf Club is a par-71 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event.

The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions. All of the top players will be here gunning for the glory of a major championship with the exception of

Past Winners of the PGA Championship

2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Valhalla

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Shane Lowry (+1.25)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
Jordan Smith (+1.05)
Tom Hoge (+.96)
Corey Conners (+.94)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:

Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
Keith Mitchell (+.90)
Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
Ludvig Aberg (+.82)

Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs

Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:

Jon Rahm (+2.56)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
Shane Lowry (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses

Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
Xander Schauffele (+1.60)

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships

One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event.

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens

Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
Justin Rose (+0.93)
J.T. Poston (0.87)

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways

Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds:

Justin Thomas (+1.53)
Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
Rory McIlroy (+1.23)

2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%).

Brooks Koepka
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Shane Lowry
Alex Noren
Will Zalatoris
Cameron Young
Keith Mitchell
Hideki Matsuyama
Billy Horschel
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Adam Schenk
Chris Kirk
Sahith Theegala
Min Woo Lee
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas

2024 PGA Championship Picks

Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)

At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.

Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.

Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.

In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024.

Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)

Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.

At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.

Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.

Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.

Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)

There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.

Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.

Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.

Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.

Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)

I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.

Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.

Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.

Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 2

Published

4 days ago

May 9, 2024

Terry Koehler

In my last post, I explained the basic performance dynamics of “smash factor” and “gear effect” as they apply to your wedges and your wedge play success. If you missed that post, you can read it here.

At the end of that post, I promised “part 2” of this discussion of what makes a wedge work the way it does. So, let’s dive into the other two components of any wedge – the shaft and the grip.

It’s long been said that the shaft is “the engine of the golf club.” The shaft (and grip) are your only connection to all the technologies that are packed into the head of any golf club, whether it be a driver, fairway, hybrid, iron, wedge or even putter.

And you cannot ignore those two components of your wedges if your goal is optimizing your performance.

I’ve long been an advocate of what I call a “seamless transition” from your irons into your wedges, so that the feel and performance do not disconnect when you choose a gap wedge, for example, instead of your iron-set-matching “P-club.” In today’s golf equipment marketplace, more and more golfers are making the investment of time and money to experience an iron fitting, going through trial and error and launch monitor measuring to get just the right shaft in their irons.

But then so many of those same golfers just go into a store and choose wedges off the retail display, with no similar science involved at all. And that’s why I see so many golfers with a huge disconnect between their custom-fitted irons, often with lighter and/or softer graphite or light steel shafts . . . and their off-the-rack wedges with the stock stiff steel ‘wedge flex’ shaft common to those stock offerings.

If your wedge shafts are significantly heavier and stiffer than the shafts in your irons, it is physically impossible for you to make the same swing. Period.

To quickly improve your wedge play, one of the first things you can do is have your wedges re-shafted with the same or similar shaft that is in your irons.

There’s another side of that shaft weight equation; if you don’t have the forearm and hand strength of a PGA Tour professional, you simply cannot “handle” the same weight shaft that those guys play to master the myriad of ‘touch shots’ around the greens.

Now, let’s move on to the third and other key component of your wedges – the grips. If those are not similar in shape and feel to the grips on your irons, you have another disconnect. Have your grips checked by a qualified golf club professionals to make sure you are in sync there.

The one caveat to that advice is that I am a proponent of a reduced taper in your wedge grips – putting two to four more layers of tape under the lower hand, or selecting one of the many reduced taper grips on the market. That accomplishes two goals for your scoring.

First, it helps reduce overactive hands in your full and near-full wedge swings. Quiet hands are key to good wedge shots.

And secondly, it provides a more consistent feel of the wedge in your hands as you grip down for those shorter and more delicate shots around the greens. And you should always grip down as you get into those touch shots. I call it “getting closer to your work.”

So, if you will spend as much time selecting the shafts and grips for your wedges as you do choosing the brand, model, and loft of them, your scoring range performance will get better.

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

7 days ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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