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Not making the college golf cut

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Golf participation for the Millennial demographic (ages 18-to-34), has decreased 30 percent in the past 20 years, and the remedy to bring the game back to us remains largely unsolved.

I relish the hot summer days when I’d bang range balls for a few hours, play nine holes and caddy during the afternoon. Life was good, life was golf. My circle of friends lived a similar lifestyle, played junior tournaments and some of us moved onto the college ranks. And then something funny happened. The game tied to our personal being somehow separated as we started careers in different cities. My golfing buddies and I aren’t alone.

The problem begins in the transition between high school and college. In 2012, 152,725 students played competitively in high school, yet only 12,147 students played varsity college golf that year, according to scholarshipstats.com. If you are part of the lucky 8 percent playing golf for a college team, you play for free and get handed school-logoed Pro V1’s. But what happens to those not on varsity who are forced to pay for their own golf, find transportation and courses that actually welcome their business? Some students attend one of the 100 or so universities that have courses on campus, but for many, the clubs don’t make it to the dorm room and students drop the game temporarily.

On the bright side, there has been a significant uptick in number of collegiate club golf teams from 50 to over 200 in the past year alone.  Many of these club golf teams now compete in student-led weekend tournaments in the National Collegiate Club Golf Association (NCCGA). The organization takes a proactive role—a grassroots effort of sorts—in recruiting and working with students to start school-recognized and funded club golf programs off the ground. While the NCCGA has carved out a niche for competitive non-varsity golfers, it struggles to assist more recreational players or students brand new to the game.

At Michigan State’s club golf fair in the fall of 2011, nearly 500 students signed up with an interest in joining the club, but only a few dozen ultimately remain on the competitive club team roster. The gap could be filled by finding a solution to keep more of these fringe college golfers in the game by getting PGA professionals to teach lessons on campus, helping them improve and stay interested.

CollegeGolf1

The problem—specifically with Millennial golfer participation—begins in college but exacerbates as a young professional.

“Consistently keeping up a golf game has been very difficult since moving to Manhattan,” says Ryan Down, a 26 year-old former Yale varsity golfer. “Transportation is the main issue: most people don’t have cars in the city, which sometimes means two trains and a cab to get to a course. The other difficulty is the lack of availability of decent courses that aren’t constantly packed with weekend golfers. All in all, it can easily be an 8 hour commitment including the ride to and from the course.”

With often 60+ hour workweeks and a lack of transportation options, golf is just not feasible on weekends like it was back in high school. Young professional golfers in cities such as New York, Boston, DC, San Francisco and Chicago face serious barriers in making it out the links on any regular basis.

I live in Boston where I can’t afford to own a parking spot, so I’m left stranded if I haven’t secured one of the few public spaces before 7 p.m., thereby making playing golf after work a serious challenge. Improving or sharpening my game is a thing of the past. For the modern young professional, playing golf requires planning, commitment from friends and some serious dollars if you’re looking to play a decent track with the rest of the masses on summer weekends.

Is golf officially dead for college students and young professionals? Does the industry just need to wait until we turn 40, own a house with a white fence and join the local country club? The answer is no, however, the industry needs to make changes in becoming more relevant to younger consumers. The explosive growth of the NCCGA proves the demand for competitive golf for single-digit handicap players at the non-varsity collegiate level.

So why is nobody extending competitive golf into the young adult space? As a former D3 golfer who plays twice a month, I have zero business spending $125 trying to shoot 74 and qualify for the state amateur. That said, I’d love to compete against other serious golfers around my age in a more relaxed environment.

Theories exist — including foot golf, 15-inch cups and actually using media effectively — to help Millennials keep golf fun and accessible, but it doesn’t seem to be enough. If you have thoughts on ways to engage the next generation of golfers, shoot a note to [email protected] or better yet, tweet to @MikeBelkin11.

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Mike Belkin is a Co-Founder of Nextgengolf & Director of College Golfer Happiness. Mike played varsity golf at Amherst College, currently resides in Boston, and is passionate about growing the game for millennials. Contact Mike on Twitter @MikeBelkin11 or [email protected]

25 Comments

25 Comments

  1. Tom

    Jul 7, 2014 at 10:38 pm

    You’ve brought up some good points and as a single digit who didn’t start playing until I was in my late twenties I have to disagree with the premise that another person or organization should be involved in motivating the “latent” 12m+ population. Unfortunately golf is very hard and time consuming. IMHO this is a cultural issue that runs deep in the “millennial” population – I’m not a sociologist but I think there needs to be a more comprehensive study of what is driving this population. I took up golf because of the challenge and because I wanted to play. It was a singular, individual decision. Even if you motivate 10% of that 12m you’re referencing to play you’re only replacing the losses from the older generation. Socially and culturally things have shifted and the CC lifestyle along with 4.5 hr rounds on weekends (assuming you live somewhere close to a golf course) just aren’t feasible for the Millennial populations. Forgive me if I’m coming across in a negative light. I respect your article and the points you raise but this may be a problem that can’t be solved. It may just be part of the natural expansion/contraction life cycle that everything goes through. I think we should question the question – why should we grow golf?

  2. Peter Kratsios

    Jul 7, 2014 at 8:06 am

    First and foremost, I’d like to say that NextGenGolf and NCCGA are the types of initiatives the golf industry needs in their effort to grow participation amongst millennials. I too played collegiate golf at a D3 college, which provided me many benefits that my friends were unable to take advantage of. However, it were those benefits that have made me realize how unrealistic it is to play competitively at age 25 in local tournaments. Events range from $125-200, which is a steep price for someone simply looking to enjoy a competitive round of golf.

    I look forward to seeing how these organizations develop in the future.

  3. Dave

    Jul 6, 2014 at 10:37 pm

    Great picture of South Station in Boston. That picture could have been of me a few weeks ago.

  4. Neil

    Jul 4, 2014 at 6:25 pm

    It’s definitely a time issue with me, having two young kids; I practice way more than I get out.
    Hopefully one or both them are interested in getting out on the course with Dad as that will
    increase my course time ten fold.

  5. Bobby

    Jul 3, 2014 at 3:19 pm

    Great article, Mike. I never thought that I would be playing golf regularly in college, but being on a club golf team allows me to play competitively while still focusing on academics and maintaining a healthy social life. Practices are optional, tournaments are held twice per semester, and no classes are missed. Playing club golf certainly helps student golfers get the most out of their college experience.

  6. Peter Klemperer

    Jul 3, 2014 at 12:34 pm

    Great article. Club sports are a great opportunity for college students to get involved in athletics without the pressure or time commitment of varsity sports. I didn’t own a car in college but the team provided great opportunities for group training and rides races all over the midwest. I’m sure the same thing could be replicated with golf.

    As a younger professional having recently moved to Northern California I find the courses plentiful but generally packed. I tend to play my 18-hole rounds as early as possible to avoid the crowds or seek out par-3/9-hole courses for after work golf.

    • Mike Belkin

      Jul 3, 2014 at 12:43 pm

      Thanks Peter. Going out and playing early is way to do it so long as you can get some friends to join you! I used to play a Newton Commonwealth, a city course in Boston, with may dad on weekends and tee off at 5:15, we’d be off the course by 8am and have the whole day free (with a brief nap, of course).

  7. Allen Freeman

    Jul 3, 2014 at 11:00 am

    Speaking of the costs of playing in tournaments, check out the petition to the USGA to make playing in national championships more affordable: http://chn.ge/1xu0WNX

    • Mike Belkin

      Jul 3, 2014 at 11:10 am

      Very interesting, Allen. As a young professional I personally I struggle more with the time to keep my game sharp and having access to places to practice and play. The median greens fee across courses nationwide is $26 so that $100+ entries fee (albeit at high-end) courses is certainly not cheap.

  8. WarrenPeace

    Jul 3, 2014 at 10:41 am

    Book time at the local Golftech and work on your game- they have simulators and instructors. That’s what I would do if I couldn’t get out to play regularly. Practice more-play less if inconvenient to get to a course. That way when you do play- it’s enjoyable to watch the progress you’ve made.

  9. AJ

    Jul 3, 2014 at 9:45 am

    Again, I think this is a real problem with the USA sports model in general. Looking outside in (from the UK) it would seem that once you cease to play any competitive sport, the general infrastructure isn’t there to enable meaningful amateur play in any field.

    My point here is that there is no established organised amateur sport, and this extends to golf. Basically, once you are out of your high school / university sports team, you don’t play that game competitively, ever again.

    Is that right or have I got that completely wrong?

    In Europe certainly, if you don’t make the cut as a professional in any given sport, you can join a local club and play competitive soccer/rugby/cricket for as long as your body will allow, and there is always a level for you.

    It’s the same with golf. In general clubs are more accessible, more affordable and there is a whole heap more organised competitive golf for amateurs. I play at least one competitive round each week, usually two or more in the summer (mixture of medal play and match play).

    I think we have it pretty sweet over here, and I speak as somebody who lives in central London yet can still afford to be a member of a top 100 course and get there pretty easily by car or public transport. I had the chance to move to NYC a few years ago and the prospect of only playing golf a few times a year really did put me off. There was simply no way I could afford to be a member of a decent private members club over there like I can here.

    • Mike Belkin

      Jul 3, 2014 at 11:15 am

      Great points, AJ. College golfers in the states–be it on varsity of NCCGA club teams–have organized methods to actually play competitive golf. But once they enter the working world, and especially in major cities, it’s nearly impossible to find solid competitive golf outside of USGA & State Am like tournies that are pretty expensive to begin with. I agree with you that NYC is the most difficult for young professionals to play golf competitively, let alone just keeping the game sharp. I am always thinking about ways the industry can become more friendly to young professionals to help keep them in the game. It’s the future and the golf needs to innovate here!

      • AJ

        Jul 4, 2014 at 6:38 am

        Mike, that is very interesting to hear. Example from the UK: this weekend I am playing in a Men’s Open event (typically for handicaps 10 and below) which costs £50, includes 36 holes and all food for the day. It’s on a Saturday so working guys can play. There will be a scratch prize and a handicap prize so it’s fair. UK handicaps are also more tightly regulated because we play so much competition golf and handicaps aren’t adjusted unless in a competition.

        Most golf clubs in the UK will host such an event (be it individual, pairs, mixed golf) once a year at a minimum.

        In August I will play in a further one day 36 hole event and two separate 72 hole events (with a halfway cut), all around the £50 mark to enter and providing great competitive golf.

        I see no reason this model can’t be adopted in the states?

  10. DoWhat

    Jul 3, 2014 at 9:14 am

    How does a 15 inch cup make the game more accessible?

    Oh, wait. Maybe the dude can park his car there.

    • Mike Belkin

      Jul 3, 2014 at 11:19 am

      We actually hosted a big cup tournament at Newton Commonwealth, a local Boston course. We had a nice mix of somewhat competitive to fairly novice golfers attend the event. https://nextgengolf.org/boston/social-and-competitive-events/ The ability to play golf in a new way helped bring folks out the course who ordinarily wouldn’t have played.

      To your point, however, do 15 inch cups make the game more accessible? No. It was actually more expensive to play that day. That said, more people came out at least!

  11. Gibbyfan

    Jul 3, 2014 at 9:07 am

    Sorry for the confusion with your article, but what was the point you were trying to get across? Is it that you are not able to play when living one of the major cities? That you chose to live in a densely populated area after graduating college? What did you expect? Did you think right down the street next to your corporate office was the company funded Donald Ross designed club where everyone would cut out at 5 PM and hit the links? You made the choice to live there. There are trade offs with living in major cities; golf is one of them.
    As for competition, there are plenty of outlets for competition Golf Channel Tour comes to mind, your local/regional golf associations run a number of events, you are part of one of the largest internet GOLF forums. There is golf to be played, YOU are the one that needs to make the choice whether it is important to ignore the bars on Friday, Saturday nights.
    I mean heaven forbid, you drive out to the burbs where you can practice and play. If you are 20 years old and older it is time to grow up and decide what is important to you. I’m a professional that works a lot,a parent, live near a large metro area, and I golf 2x a week from May -August. Maybe the ” Millennials” that are too perplexed with living in the overcrowded city and just can’t figure out how to keep their game in shape hit the net and blog how our system is broken. Or, you could get into a cab, take a train, move out of the city where you can afford to live, park a car, and golf, or, as many of your Millennials have chosen to do, move back in with their parents.

    • Mike Belkin

      Jul 3, 2014 at 11:40 am

      I wish that my friends in Boston enjoyed golf enough to take public transportation after work and play nine at Fresh Pond in Cambridge. The fact of the matter, however, is that playing golf for most young professionals is just top of mind or a high enough priority to be a regular activity. But don’t take my word, let’s look at Project M from the National Golf Foundation: http://ngfdashboard.clubnewsmaker.org/map7zilj8gqvvn6t1exxr4?a=5&p=2341869&t=410871

      The fact that you suggest that young adults should pass up a job in the city to live in the burbs where they can play golf more easily demonstrates that you are completely out of touch with the Millennial generation. Project M looks at the “latent demand” or 12M+ Millennial golfers who are interested in playing but on the fence. If the golf industry projected your attitude toward this generation, you can kiss those 12M golfers goodbye.

      It’s not easy getting good jobs these days, and America’s best and brightest college graduates will continue move to Boston, NYC, SF, DC and dozens of other metropolitan areas. If the industry does not innovate–and I mean take progressive steps to get young adults playing their courses–America’s finest will continue to keep golf on the backburner.

      If anything comes out of this article and conversation, it is to open up the eyes to all in golf–the PGA of America & the Professionals, USGA, the TOUR, course owners and operators–that the industry can’t sit back on our heels and let this generation leave their clubs behind. We need to take proactive measures to get people on the course. Opening up the cash register and expecting people to come out and play won’t cut it forever.

      Let’s innovate together and make golf relevant again for our Millennial Golfers.

      • Gibbyfan

        Jul 3, 2014 at 2:11 pm

        To begin, thank you for the response. I see that this is something that you are passionate about. Seeing that this is your profession and working with Nextgengolf. First, your job takes you to Boston metro area. Could you do your job if you lived in an area where you could commute into Boston? My guess is yes. BUT, you chose to live in the city where costs are high, parking is a premium, and you lack some green areas like golf courses. So, it is a little unfair when you imply it’s not fair or you ( Millennials) are not being catered to by the golf industry.
        Chicago ( which I live near) has a number of park district/ public courses within the city limits. Are they type of course where you want to travel to and spend your money? That is for the individual to decide. But if keeping your game sharp is important to your age group, then the answer is yes. Will getting there be easy? Doubtful. That is the tradeoff of living a metro area. You are going to have to make some concessions.
        In my earlier post, golf is there to be had. If golf is that important, then the Millennials will need to decide how they are going to play. Golf can be economical. I play at the same course and they give me the twilight rate almost anytime I play. Why? Because I am a returning customer. Some golf clubs and courses are hurting for play. Here is a link to the public courses that are around Boston http://www.golflink.com/golf-courses/city.aspx?dest=Boston+MA. I am sure that one will meet your needs as a practice site or place where your group can play on a routine basis. As the song goes ” you can’t always get what you want. But if you try sometimes well you might find you get what you need.”

  12. Pingback: Not making the college golf cut | Spacetimeandi.com

  13. Straightdriver235

    Jul 2, 2014 at 9:17 pm

    Mr. Belkin is correct here. I played some college golf, but as grades got more important, and law school loomed, it became a more special occasion to play. Because I did public service law, and now teach at the undergraduate level, I never made enough money or needed the contacts to consider club memberships. I’ve always been a public course player since becoming an adult… I resent, however, as does Mr. Down, the idea of moving from something pretty competitive, to struggling around waiting on six around rounds near weekend golfers. I miss the competition, the camaraderie of a few close expert and knowledgeable golfing friends, and more associates from younger days of competing. City clubs need to seek out young professionals and cultivate them, but so many seem caught up with the white picket fence, real estate on the course type of mentality. I lived in a major NE city and for ten years just couldn’t even find a public course where I could store my clubs at safely that I might take public transit to. If you can solve this problem you are a genius. It’s not my baby, but I have reflected the same sort of thoughts… and with great regrets. As I grow near retirement now, I am an excellent golfer who is a complete loner. My game is entirely within myself, my rounds are exercises in self control and meditation. I’m eventually heading to France where my wife is from and all but giving up the game. For now, fortunately my university is one with its own course, and it is often not too crowded, but golf clearly now lacks the social foundations I grew up with. I have not had a “golfing friend” in many years. I have given to golf, but I do not feel it has given back so well… still I love her. I’m a liberal, and see it as a capitalist problem in so many ways, but so many golfers are not neo-Marxists, and it makes no sense to them. Golf put to the excesses of the free markets only stretches so far… to cultivate serious play from lifetime committed players who might happen to be middle class and don’t see golf as a tax write off, a different model is necessary.

    • Mike Belkin

      Jul 3, 2014 at 11:44 am

      Very thoughtful response here. Can you please expand on what you mean by “a capitalist problem in so many ways”?

  14. SW

    Jul 2, 2014 at 9:05 pm

    Boohoo. Move to the South or SouthWest, why dontcha?

    • Mike Belkin

      Jul 3, 2014 at 11:46 am

      I started my career out in Buckhead, GA where it was DEFINITELY easier to get around and play. That said, it was my first year after graduating college in a totally new city so getting acquainted to my job, meeting a totally new friend group, and budgeting all got in the way. That said, I did manage to play once every other week.

  15. Phil C.

    Jul 2, 2014 at 7:19 pm

    Prioritize the player to player competition aspect of the game and let match play format take center stage. Let it be the primary format on TV, that we teach to new players, and that we play with our friends on the weekends.

    Also, Break up the match play of 18 holes into 3 separate 6-hole sets, with the winner decided after a player has won 2 sets.

    • Mike Belkin

      Jul 3, 2014 at 11:48 am

      Competition is a key ingredient to getting folks interested. Look at the explosive growth of PGA Junior Leagues which anticipates having 14,000 kids involved this year, nearly double y/o/y growth. They wear jerseys and play team golf against other clubs.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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