Opinion & Analysis

Five statistical shortcuts for lower scores

Published

10 years ago

Jun 6, 2014

One of the very first things I examine with the PGA Tour players I work with is their basic scoring metrics. Those metrics include the following:

Adjusted Total Scoring Average
Adjusted Par-3 Scoring Average
Adjusted Par-4 Scoring Average
Adjusted Par-5 Scoring Average
Adjusted Bogey Rate
Adjusted Birdie Rate

The term “adjusted” means that actual average is adjusted based on the difficulty of the courses they play.

It’s important that golfers understand these metrics at a fundamental level to improve, because that is what the game is about: shooting the lowest possible score you can. And if you can better determine what your strengths and weaknesses are from a pure scoring perspective, you can then start to reverse engineer what you need to work on in order to get better.

Here’s five scoring metrics and/or strategies that can help you get your handicap trending in the right direction.

No.1: Par 4 Scoring Average

Sergio Garcia leads the PGA Tour in par-4 scoring average in 2014 at 3.96 strokes per hole. He also leads the Tour in scoring average, and ranks in the top-10 in GIR, sand save percentage, scrambling and approaches from 200-to-225 yards.

The scoring average golfers have on par 4’s has the strongest correlation to their total scoring average. This is particularly true on the PGA Tour, because Tour players play roughly 11-to-12 par 4’s per round. The same holds true for the average amateur on an 18-hole championship course.

Par 4’s are the truest test of a player’s overall ability, however, that does not mean a good par-4 player cannot struggle in certain areas. Phil Mickelson has been a terrible driver of the ball historically, yet he plays par 4’s extremely well. Mickelson just happens to make up for it by being one of the best iron players in the world, arguably the greatest trouble-shot player of all time and generally a good putter with a great short game. Boo Weekley tends to be a good par-4 player as well, but he is one of the worst putters on Tour and has a mediocre short game. He just makes it up with incredible driving of the ball and good-to-great iron play.

In order to play the par 4’s better, I recommend working on what I call the four cornerstones of the game:

Driving
Long approach shot play (175-to-225 yards for scratch or better golfers, 150-to-200 yards for other amateurs)
Short Game (10-to-20 yards for less than 5-handicaps, 10-to-30 yards for 5+ handicaps with an emphasis on bunker shots)
Putting (3-to-15 feet for less than 5-handicaps, 3-to-25 feet for 5+ handicaps)

If one can practice these areas and start to see improvement on the range, then they will very likely see a dramatic improvement in their play on the par 4’s. But, if their par-4 play is a problem, then it is very likely due to one of these issues.

No. 2: Bogey Rate

Bubba Watson is No. 2 in Bogey Avoidance on the PGA Tour (Sergio Garcia is No. 1), making bogeys only 13.21 percent of the time. While he’s not considered a great putter and ranks near the bottom of Tour player in sand save percentage, he a leader on Tour in many ball striking statistics including driving distance and GIR.

I list Bogey Rate second because it has the second strongest correlation to scoring average on Tour. The reason is that this stat includes all double, triple and quadruple bogeys. For all intents and purposes, the best somebody will do on a hole is make a birdie (eagles happen, but very rarely). Theoretically, however, a golfer can shoot an infinitely high score on each hole. And if a golfer makes a double bogey, they now need to make two birdies in order to break even. By then, they have already used up one-sixteenth of their round and are quickly running out of holes to make more birdies.

The other important facet to understand about bogeys is that they are often not related to a golfer’s short game. Instead, they are often related to a golfer’s ball striking ability. For example, even if a golfer is a terrible putter, if he leaves himself a 20-foot putt for birdie on every hole he’s not likely to three-putt that often. He may not make many birdies, but he is not going to make many bogeys either. That is why Hogan was such a great player even when he had the putting yips; he still hit the ball close to the cup repeatedly, and even his putting would not yield many bogeys.

I even came up with a game in 2013 Pro Golf Synopsis to help promote getting the ball closer to the hole called the “15/5 Score.” Here is how I recommend 10 handicaps or better to play it:

2 points for every birdie opportunity (putt or chip) inside 15 feet.
1 point for every par putt inside 5 feet.
-3 points if the par putt is not inside 5 feet.
+3 points for eagle putts inside 15 feet.

For golfers above with a handicap of 10 or higher, I would just go 1-stroke higher:

2 points for every par opportunity (putt or chip) inside 15 feet.
1 point for every bogey putt inside 5 feet.
-3 points if the bogey putt is not inside 5 feet.
+3 points for birdie putts inside 15 feet.

The golfer can only record one score per hole, so if a 4 handicap has a 12-foot birdie putt and leaves it to 2 feet, he or she can only record 2 points for the birdie opportunity inside 15 feet.

I admit that there are golfers who have high bogey rates because of their short game and putting. It’s just that poor ball striking tends to cause more bogeys than most golfers would believe. For those golfers who struggle with making bogeys because of their short game and putting, I advise that they work on their short game shots from 10-to-20 yards and their putting from 3-to-5 feet. The goal should be to make 90 percent of their putts from 3-to-5 feet. Once that is accomplished, move on to making 5-to-10 foot putts.

No. 3: Par 5 Scoring Average

Adam Scott leads the PGA Tour in par-5 scoring average at 4.45 strokes per hole. He ranks near the top in driving distance, driving accuracy and goes for the green on par 5’s 67.24 percent of the time, ninth most on Tour.

Par-5 performance is greatly influenced by the distance golfers have off the tee and their club head speed. We see a strong correlation between par-5 performance and the “go for it” rate on Tour. According to PGATour.com, a player is assumed to be going for the green if the second shot lands on or around the green or in the water. “Around the green” indicates the ball is within 30 yards of the edge of the green.

Take note that it counts as “going for it” any time a golfer hits their second shot within 30 yards of the edge of the green. So, a player could have a 300-yard shot to the hole and only be able to hit their 3 wood 250 yards, but it can still be considered a “go for it” if the ball is within 30 yards of the front edge of the green.

Obviously, golfers want to make sure it is feasible to attempt to reach a par 5 in two shots. If the shot requires the ball to fly over water that you’re not likely to carry, there’s no reason to go for it. On the other hand, I see a lot of amateurs and even Tour players lay up to a specific yardage when there is no real trouble instead of hitting their 3 wood as close to the hole as they can. Typically, this is a poor strategy.

All golfers, including Tour players, hit shots closer to the hole on average if the have a shorter shot; provided that the shot is from the same type of lie (fairway vs. fairway, rough vs. rough, sand vs. sand, etc). The idea of getting laying up to a golfer’s favorite yardage is faulty, because while a golfer may be able to stick it close frequently from a specific yardage, their variance in how close they can hit it to the hole becomes greater than if they were, say, 30 yards closer to the hole.

I have tracked numerous Tour players using ShotTracker and experimented with a few friends of mine that are amateurs. What we typically see is that a golfer’s money yardage is often not as money as they think it is.

The best case scenarios happen with Tour players. They will hit shots from their money yardage inside 5 feet, say, 20 percent of the time. And from 30 yards closer, they may only hit it inside 5 feet only 15 percent of the time. The real killer is not their good shots, however, but the deviation in all their shots. The money yardage will provide a greater variance in results than a shot that’s 30 yards closer to the hole. For every two times they hit it inside 5 feet from their money yardage, they may miss the green completely from that distance.

So, what we tend to see on Tour is that the longest hitters with high club head speeds tend to perform best on the par-5’s because they are playing them more like par 4’s. The good par-5 players that do not hit it long off the tee like Webb Simpson, Kevin Na and Matt Kuchar tend to be very aggressive in going for the par-5’s that they can go for and are good performers from 75-to-125 yards when they have to lay-up.

There is one very important caveat to this, however. Playing par 5’s well is mostly about being able to advance your second shot as close to the hole as possible. Most golfers get on a par 5 and are trying to bomb it off the tee to leave themselves with less club into the hole. The better par-5 players, on the other hand, often hit their “stock swing” driver and focus on making good contact and finding the fairway. That’s because even Tour players do not like hitting 3 woods out of the rough, and more often than not they will lay up if they are in the rough. The golden rule I stress to golfers is that any time your second shot is likely to be a 5-iron or longer, take your stock driver swing and focus on making good contact and finding the fairway. This applies for both par 5’s and long par 4’s.

No. 4: Birdie Rate

Rory McIlroy leads the PGA Tour in birdie average at 4.75 birdies per round. While he only ranks 72nd in Strokes Gained-Putting, he’s one of the most accurate players on Tour from 100-to-125 yards, 125-to-150 yards, 175-to-200 yards, 200-to-225 yards and 225-to-250 yards.

Birdie Rate is often tied in with Par-5 performance because golfers birdie par 5’s almost three times more than they birdie par 4’s and almost four times more than they birdie par 3’s.

There are some Tour players that generate a lot of birdies, but do not play the par 5’s that well. Those players are usually good at one of or both of these areas:

Shots from 125-to-175 yards
Making putts outside of 15 feet

Typical amateurs who makes a lot of birdies but do not play par-5’s well will likely be performing very well from 100-to-150 yards.

Making putts outside 15-feet is a very fleeting metric. Even the best putters on Tour have a very inconsistent percentage of putts made from outside 15 feet. Typically, making putts outside 15 feet will move towards the mean. So the golfer that is making a lot of birdies because they are putting great outside 15 feet will eventually see that cease, because that make percentage is going to regress over time.

No. 5: Par 3 Scoring Average

Russell Knox leads the PGA Tour in scoring average at 2.96 strokes per hole. While he only ranks 114th in Strokes Gained-Putting, he ranks 30th in putts from 15-to-20 feet and hits his shots closer to the hole than any other player on Tour with an average of 31 feet 11 inches.

Par-3 performance is:

1-part iron play
1-part short game play
1-part putting outside 20 feet

Typically, if a Tour player performs at least two of these parts well they will perform better than average on par 3’s. Par-3 performance is also a bit fleeting because one part of it relies on making putts that are longer than 20 feet, which you now know is a fleeting metric.

Recent research that I have conducted shows that between the frequency of shots and shot performance, bunker play accounts for 50-to-55 percent of a Tour player’s short game performance. For amateurs with a 5 handicap or greater, it accounts for 75-to-80 percent of their short game performance. That’s why most amateurs should concentrate on their bunker play to improve their scoring average. And they could greatly help themselves by avoiding those bunkers in front of the green, where I found that Tour players hit their shots an average of 38 percent farther away from the cup that shots from the bunkers to the side of the green or in back of the green.

I hope this information allows golfers to better understand scoring, what to practice and how to generate a better strategy to improve their score. Good luck!

Your Reaction?

LIKE24
LEGIT7
WOW5
LOL1
IDHT2
FLOP3
OB1
SHANK1

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

2 days ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

Your Reaction?

LIKE7
LEGIT2
WOW0
LOL0
IDHT0
FLOP0
OB0
SHANK0

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

Published

1 week ago

Apr 30, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

Your Reaction?

LIKE3
LEGIT3
WOW1
LOL2
IDHT0
FLOP2
OB0
SHANK0

Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

Published

1 week ago

Apr 30, 2024

Brendan Ryan

In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

Your Reaction?