The Masters is almost here!

That may seem like disrespectful talk with two good tournaments preceding it, but the truth is it its looming shadow will impact the pros’ decision making, such as Jason Day’s withdrawal from this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational because of a lingering thumb injury to Tiger Wood’s back issue, which could see him add the Shell Houston Open to his schedule if he doesn’t round to form this week. Even those that have yet to secure an invite will be scrambling to participate at iconic Augusta National.

Putting visions of azaleas blooming aside, Bay Hill Club & Lodge is our venue this week and typically that would come it with tons of talk about Tiger’s dominance at the venue. But the aforementioned back problems are going to affect many fantasy owner’s willingness to pull the trigger. Even without Woods in your lineup, there are plenty of solid choices. Let’s break it down. Here’s Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

I sometimes feel like the term risk skews more to a negative connotation. But really what it’s designed to do is just step back for a moment and weigh how well a golfer is playing at the moment, whether their game suits the course as evidenced by past history, or if they’re off the radar a tad and have the potential to score some unexpected points. Sometimes the risk is an injury that’s been plaguing them. Sometimes the risk is minimizing starts in an effort to save them for the end of the year. It is a very subjective category, but by no means is it synonymous with fear. Here’s five risks this week.

Will MacKenzie

Trending upward big time, MacKenzie now has three top 10s in his last five starts after last week’s T4 at the Valspar Championship. He’s a far different golfer now than he was in ’09 when he last played Bay Hill and missed the cut. In fact, this run is similar to what Jason Dufner did last year en route to winning the PGA Championship. While this is no major, winning in front of Arnie and simultaneously toppling Tiger from his throne would carry similar feelings, especially since hasn’t won a PGA Tour event since 2008 at the lesser-field Viking Classic.

Harris English 

The quality of Yahoo Group C is so light that I’ve already used English four times this year. While that’s been good because he has been so good, it leaves me in a predicament as the year unfolds. I may need to shelve him this week even though I want to keep running him out there. Who is your early season dilemma for starts used? I’d love to hear your thoughts below. As for English, he didn’t do so hot last year at the API, nor the year before with an MC, but so young in his career, I don’t worry he’ll make the weekend and score this week.

Kevin Na

If I end up benching English, two guys are quickly on my radar as replacement: Graeme McDowell and Kevin Na. Na is a converging trend, getting hot lately with a T4 at Pebble Beach and a solo second last week just as he hits the Bay Hill, where he finished T4 two years ago. He also has a T2 in ’10 and a T11 in ’09. As much as he can be infuriating to watch sometimes, it’s hardly a reason to keep him out of a fantasy golf lineup. This is a good spot to grab a cup of water, take two take chill pills and hope for the best.

Henrik Stenson

I see this as the breakout week where Stenson puts himself at the top of the leaderboard again. He had been a slow starter to this point, perhaps dealing with the pressure that came from winning the FedEx Cup, perhaps shaking off the rust from just three starts this calendar year. He got off to a slow start at Doral too, but closed with a final round 69, which hoisted him up to a T16. He finished T8 at Bay Hill last year and hasn’t missed a cut in five tries. With 10 starts available from him, I’m considering pairing him with Tiger and hoping others go a different path.

Keegan Bradley

By all the markings, Bradley has the appearance of chalk, but he hasn’t been chalk-like in his play this year. In some ways it’s bewildering because you want him to play well. He is charismatic; he comes from golf bloodlines; he’s fun to watch with all his quirks. He also has a couple wins and a major under his belt, but for whatever reason, he’s slowed considerably on Tour during this calendar year. A T12 at The Honda Classic was a good showing, but followed up with four high rounds at Doral. So who shows up? The guy who finished T3 last year or the guy who shot 78-77 in 2011. He’s a nice choice for Group B, but maybe not in some other games.

REWARD

There’s some good chalk in the fielded and in Yahoo leagues it will prove to be a tough dilemma, especially in a loaded group A. With this tournament and next week’s Shell Houston Open as the remaining roadblocks/chances for the Yahoo winter segment, properly strategize. I’m holding a 40-point lead, so I’m not going to rock the boat at the moment. But this could be an opportunity for someone who is behind to live a little dangerous, meaning Eldrick is probably not going to make your lineup. But also remember, the real win is the season overall result, so don’t go completely off the deep end with your picks either. I feel like making a John Daly joke here, but I’ll refrain from a bad decision, unlike him with a carry-over-water (Oh well. Couldn’t help it). Here’s a look at five golfers I especially like this week.

Tiger Woods

Editor’s Note: Tiger Woods withdrew from the Arnold Palmer Invitational on Tuesday evening. 

I just can’t put Tiger in the Risk category. Eight wins. That’s how many times he’s won at Bay Hill. The back? I think it will be a non issue because he took the week off of the Valspar Championship and likely had treatment every day for the last 10 days. Remember, he made it through the WGC-Cadillac Championships without withdrawing. Even with a final-round 78, when it flared up the most on the back nine, he was only nine strokes behind winner Patrick Reed. He will be right there this week, in contention and vying for title No. 9. Would you leave someone who’s won four of the last five times at Bay Hill out of your lineup?

Bubba Watson 

Right behind Reed at Doral was Watson, who is in good of form as we’ve ever seen him. He’s made a run in match play this year, has a win at the Northern Trust Open, a T2 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and two other top 10’s. His only real issue at Bay Hill will be closing strong after what is normally a solid opening round. He has a T4 here in 2012, the year he won the Masters, and he also has three missed cuts through the years. But this is the best and most focused season of golf we’ve seen Watson play and that should be the first priority in using him, since he’s always shown a propensity to put low numbers up. His issue has been mitigating the bad rounds, and this year has seen him do that week in and week out.

Patrick Reed

I hope you’re not annoyed with Reed’s bravado, calling himself one of the top five golfers in the world. Truth is, that belief, backed up with two wins in his last six starts and an amateur pedigree matched by very few lends itself to the credence that Reed will compete each and every week. He has some interesting swing mechanics, but you don’t need to swing pretty to win. While Reed missed the cut last year in his only appearance at Bay Hill, that was before he figured out how to win on Tour. And his approach to winning is to treat every round as a Monday qualifier. Count me among the believers.

Justin Rose

The shoulder tendinitis looks to be a thing of the past now for Rose, which is good for gamers who likely have quite a few starts to burn with him. This is one of the best times to use him since he’s coming of a T8 at Copperhead last week and has performed well at Bay Hill recently. A T3 in 2011, a solo second last year and another top-15 finish makes it a good bet that he will put up at least one low round to get him near the top this year. From there, we know Rose’s game has been honed to win majors, which he’s now done, and he’d know how to close it out in a scenario where he could be squaring off against Tiger and other major winners.

Adam Scott

Speaking of major winners, Scott, last year’s Masters winner is also in the field. That’s right, it’s a loaded Yahoo group A this week, basically choosing Tiger and then one of three other Reward picks. Really, you can’t go wrong and Watson is likely the hottest. But don’t discount Scott in this instance either. He hung around at Doral, but never really made a move. That’s OK, because his T25 followed what had been five terrific tournament starts. He hasn’t played the Arnold Palmer Invitational since 2009, when he missed the cut, and truthfully, he didn’t tear up Bay Hill in year’s prior. But what he is is in good form with an eye on reaching No. 1 in the world. Anytime you have a guy with his pedigree who has been playing at his prime, you can’t say to avoid him. He’s not a risk, not in the slightest.

RUIN

To properly define ruin, I see it as a gamble and nothing but. It’s buying a lottery ticket and expecting to win solely because it happens to be your birthday. That’s no way to make fantasy golf picks. Sure, sometimes a “ruin” will pan out and string together some good golf — anyone on Tour can do that on a given day — but where you get into trouble bypassing sounds logic in favor “what my gut tells me.” I didn’t just go with my gut when I said I think Stenson will compete; my gut is backed up by some historical fact. So here’s some historical fact to back up this week’s picks for ruin.

Robert Garrigus

Another 54-hole lead and another choke from Garrigus. And this was truly a missed opportunity at the Valspar Championship for a guy whose only win came in 2010. You could choose to ride him another week or recognize that in 2011 he finished T56 at Bay Hill and has missed the cut the last two years. He can go fishing instead of playing practice rounds all he wants, but being relaxed on the first two days isn’t the same as being in contention on the weekend. He has to solve those nerves.

Jeff Overton

Since a seventh-place finish in Hawaii at the Sony Open, Overton has cooled considerably with a T38 and T67, plus two missed cuts, including last week’s Valspar Championship. He hasn’t fared well at Bay Hill with an MC last year, T70 in ’12, MC in ’11 and T48 in ’09. He’ll figure things out at some point, but that will be through a season’s long amount of effort, which won’t begin this week.

Graeme McDowell

Remember how I said I was looking at McDowell and Na? Well, McDowell is out. I’m not being fooled by his solo second from 2012 or his T2 from 2005. He has some good finishes this year with five top 10s, but Bay Hill has also seen him post a T45 last year and miss the cut in ’11 and ’10, and post T40 in ’09. That’s a very sporadic mixing of scores for someone ranked 15th in the world. I’m just not sold, especially if the scores go low.

Brendon Todd

Another example of a good young player with a lot of upside (as with most ex-Georgia Bulldogs), Todd had a good start to the season up through the Humana Challenge, where he finished T6. But since he’s finished no better than T35 in four made cuts and MC’d at The Honda Classic. He didn’t get to play Bay Hill last year, but missed the cut in 2012, his first year on Tour. Give him some time as well. 

Brandt Snedeker 

Maybe Snedeker seems like an odd addition because he’s definitely a solid to above average golfer, but something about Bay Hill doesn’t seem to suit him. He enters having very little in the way of good golf to show this season, while facing a course that’s caused him to miss the cut in two of the last three years. The made cut in ’12 resulted in a T63. In 2010, he was T30. In the three years prior he performed decently, meaning he’s been trending away from that ever since. Don’t waste a start.

As always, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you want to talk about the Arnold Palmer Invitational, pre-converse about the Masters, or discuss any fantasy lineup dilemmas. Good luck!

This week’s picks

Yahoo!

Group A: B. Watson (S), T. Woods

Group B: J. Rose (S), H. Mahan (S), K. Bradley, Z. Johnson

Group C: W. MacKenzie (S), H. English

(Last week: 162 points; Winter segment: 1,686; Rank: 2,698 – 96th percentile)

PGATour.com

T. Woods, J. Rose, B. Watson, A. Scott

(Last week: 268 points; Season: 3,063; Rank: 4,691)

Golf Channel

Group 1: T. Woods

Group 2: P. Reed

Group 3: W. MacKenzie

Group 4:

(Last week: $511,032; Season: $6,860,129; Mulligan: $28,666; Rank: 3,794 of 47,862)